Schlagwort: crypto market

TL;DR

• BTC briefly touched the $79k level during the late hours of Sunday.
• US-listed spot BTC ETFs recorded inflows of over $820 million last week, marking the fourth straight week of positive flows.

Bitcoin (BTC) edges slightly lower on Monday, trading around $77,873 after securing its fourth consecutive weekly gain since late March. Despite the mild pullback, the broader bullish structure remains intact, underpinned by steady institutional demand. 

However, as BTC approaches the critical $80,000 resistance zone, rising geopolitical uncertainty tied to US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz is tempering near-term risk appetite.

Institutional demand remains a key factor

Institutional flows continue to provide strong support for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $823.7 million in net inflows last week, following $996.38 million the week prior. 

This marks four straight weeks of positive inflows, reinforcing sustained institutional interest. If the trend persists or accelerates, it could fuel another leg higher for BTC in the near term.
While fundamentals remain supportive, macro uncertainty is capping momentum. Reports suggest Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current ceasefire, aiming to move toward a longer-term resolution. However, the outcome remains uncertain. 

US President Donald Trump reportedly dismissed the proposal as insufficient, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected negotiations under pressure. This backdrop has dampened risk sentiment, prompting a pause in Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bullish bias intact despite resistance

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient. Technically, Bitcoin maintains a constructive outlook despite facing rejection near $80,000. Last week’s 6% gain pushed BTC above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490, a key resistance zone. 

A sustained move higher could see BTC retest $80,000, with further upside targeting the 200-week EMA at $82,488.

Momentum indicators support the bullish case. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI sits at 54, above the neutral territory, signaling weakening bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish crossover from mid-April, with a rising histogram reinforcing upside potential.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $78,962 (50% retracement), followed by the psychological $80,000 level. A breakout above this zone could open the door toward $83,437 (61.8% retracement) and $84,410.

However, if the bears regain control, initial support sits near $75,680, followed closely by the 100-day EMA at $75,619 and the 38.2% retracement at $74,487. 

A deeper pullback could test the 50-day EMA at $73,363, with further support at $68,950 and the lower channel boundary near $63,033, ahead of the major structural floor at $60,000.

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Key takeaways

• XMR is trading above $380 on Friday, after over 3% rebound from the 200-day EMA on the previous day.
• The positive derivatives data could push XMR’s price above $400. 

Monero (XMR) is trading around $380 on Friday, showing a mild retracement after a 3% gain the previous day. The privacy coin is steadily regaining demand in the derivatives market, as traders anticipate further upside amid a broader market risk-on phase

Monero derivatives signal strong retail sentiment

Monero has continued its recovery since the early February sell-off, with growing retail demand for its derivatives. 

According to CoinGlass data, the XMR futures Open Interest (OI) has risen to $139.39 million, up from $109.94 million on February 7, reflecting renewed investor confidence. 

Furthermore, the OI-weighted funding rate remains positive at 0.0093%, indicating a persistent preference for holding long positions at a premium.

The positive derivatives data indicate that buyers are starting to enter the Monero market. This could push XMR’s price higher in the near to medium term. 

Technical outlook: Can Monero surge to $400?

The XMR/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient, but the structure could flip bullish if Monero continues with its rally. 

Currently, XMR is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $351 and the 200-day EMA at $364.

The 4-hour chart reveals a rising channel pattern, signaling a constructive market structure.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) above its signal line support sustained upside momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance is at $400, aligning with the Inducement Liquidity (ILQ) created on February 4. A breakout above this level could push Monero towards the 50% retracement level at $470, above the 4-hour TLQ level. 

However, if the bears regain control, support is found at the 200-day EMA at $364, followed by the 50-day EMA at $351. 

A deeper pullback below the rising support trendline at $330 would signal a more significant shift in the current constructive outlook.

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Key takeaways

• ADA is trading below key resistance zones, signaling a bearish near-term bias and limiting recovery attempts.
• Whales are reducing their exposure to ADA, which could lead to further price decline. 

Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, hovering below $0.250 on Friday as price action remains subdued beneath key resistance zones. 

On-chain data from Santiment indicates that certain whale wallets have begun reducing their holdings, adding to selling pressure.

Whales reduce exposure amid shifting accumulation trends

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data points to a weakening outlook for Cardano as large-wallet investors adjust their positions. Whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and 1 million–10 million ADA have collectively offloaded around 80 million tokens since April 19.

Furthermore, wallets in the 10 million–100 million ADA range have accumulated approximately 60 million ADA over the same period. 

This divergence suggests a rotation in holdings: mid-sized whales are selling, while larger entities are absorbing supply. Such behavior often reflects distribution at elevated levels, increasing short-term downside risk.

Cardano’s derivatives data present a mixed outlook with a slight bearish tilt. CoinGlass data shows open interest falling to $444 million on Friday, down from $490 million on April 18. This indicates declining trader participation and weakening speculative demand.

Additionally, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.80, its lowest level in over a month. A ratio below 1 indicates bearish positioning, with more traders expecting price declines.

Despite that, the funding rate paints a bullish narrative. The OI-weighted funding rate turned positive on Thursday and currently sits at 0.0076%, suggesting that long positions are paying shorts—often interpreted as a mild bullish signal.

Cardano price outlook: bears continue to halt recovery

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Cardano remains technically weak, trading below $0.250. 

The coin is facing immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of $0.258, followed by $0.269 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the 100-day EMA at $0.294.

Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51, while the MACD is flat just above zero, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction.

If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is found at $0.245. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further losses toward $0.220, a key prior-cycle support zone.

However, if the bulls regain control and close above the $0.258 resistance, it would be the first sign of recovery strength, potentially opening the path toward $0.269 and higher resistance levels near $0.294 and $0.299. 

An extended bullish reversal would require a move above $0.323 and eventually toward the 200-day EMA near $0.383.

The post Cardano (ADA) faces bearish pressure as whales reduce exposure appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Hyperliquid holds steady around $40 on Thursday, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours.
• The negative funding rate gives HYPE a mixed signal in the market.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is trading around $40.95 at press time on Thursday, stabilizing after a 3%+ gain in the previous session. 

While the decentralized exchange (DEX) token has managed to hold recent levels, weakening retail demand in the leverage market and a developing rising wedge pattern on the chart are keeping the broader outlook neutral-to-bearish.

HYPE’s futures market suggests a cooling demand

HYPE initially attracted strong retail interest during heightened geopolitical tensions around the US–Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz, as its platform enabled 24/7 trading of commodities such as oil and precious metals. 

However, as geopolitical pressure eased following signals of extended diplomatic timelines, speculative interest in the token has started to fade.

Data from CoinGlass shows HYPE futures open interest at about $1.63 billion, moving mostly sideways—an indication that trader participation has plateaued. 

Meanwhile, the funding rate sits at -0.0061%, suggesting a growing tilt toward short positioning as traders increasingly bet on downside risk.

Technical outlook: Bears could push the price lower

The HYPE/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as HYPE remains supported above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $38.46 and the 200-day EMA around $34.51. 

The 4-hour structure is forming a rising wedge pattern, typically considered a bearish setup when momentum weakens. The momentum indicators also paint a bearish picture. 

The MACD remains in negative territory, signaling fading bullish strength, while the RSI at 47 reflects a growing bearish condition. 

If the sellers remain in control, they would encounter immediate support at the trendline near $40.33. A break below this level could open a path toward the 50-day EMA at $38.46, followed by stronger support near the 200-day EMA at $34.51.

However, if the bulls push higher, resistance is first seen at $43.71, with further upside capped near $45.77 at the upper trendline boundary.

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Key takeaways 

• XLM is down 2% on Thursday after the 100-day EMA capped its short-term recovery run.
• XLM futures Open Interest stabilizes, but the declining long-to-short ratio signals a bearish bias.

XLM flips bearish as the leverage market loses confidence

Stellar (XLM) extended its losses on Thursday, with the token struggling to regain momentum as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.1798 continues to cap upside attempts, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook.

Sentiment in the derivatives market also points to growing downside expectations. Data from Coinglass shows that XLM futures Open Interest (OI) remains elevated at $114.70 million after climbing sharply from $99.45 million earlier this week, signaling sustained trader activity despite weak price action.

However, bearish positioning continues to dominate. The long-to-short ratio currently sits at 0.7632 — a level that has remained below 1 since mid-January — indicating that traders are increasingly favoring short positions and anticipating further downside for XLM.

Technical forecast: XLM could drop below $0.1700

The XLM/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient, indicating that the bears have regained control in the near term. 

XLM is trading below the key 100-day EMA while still holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.1669. 

Momentum indicators still show some signs of resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62 on the 4-hour timeframe, remaining above the neutral midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to trade above its signal line, suggesting buyers have not fully lost control.

Still, downside risks remain elevated. If XLM falls below the 50-day EMA support at $0.1669, the token could slide toward the key consolidation support zone at $0.1471 — a level that has held since early February.

On the upside, bulls would need to push XLM above the 100-day EMA at $0.1798 to uphold a bullish sentiment. 

A daily candle close above that resistance could pave the way for a move toward the 200-day EMA near $0.2101.

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