Bitcoin surges above $78k amid ceasefire extension and liquidity boost

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin price rallies higher, trading above $78,000 on Wednesday after surging nearly 6% so far this week.
  • US-listed spot ETF recorded a mild inflow of $11.84 million on Tuesday amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its gains on Wednesday, trading above $78,000 after a significant 6% surge this week. BTC showed relatively muted institutional demand on Tuesday, with Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) adding $11 million in inflows.

Bitcoin’s price was buoyed by both geopolitical developments and the US Treasury’s buyback plan, which could inject additional liquidity into markets and further support Bitcoin’s price momentum.

Ceasefire extension pushes BTC’s price higher

Bitcoin’s positive momentum was fueled by the extension of the two-week ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump late Tuesday. The ceasefire, which was set to expire on April 22, was extended upon Pakistan’s request until Washington receives a unified proposal from Tehran. 

While Trump emphasized that the US blockade of Iranian seaports would remain in place, the ceasefire extension triggered a broad risk rally, driving Bitcoin to its highest price since February 3, reaching $78,452.

Market liquidity is expected to receive a significant boost this week, as the US Treasury is poised to buy back $15 billion of its own debt—matching the largest buyback in history. This move could provide fresh liquidity to the markets, creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin. As a liquidity-driven asset, Bitcoin could benefit from the influx of excess capital, which often flows into risk assets and alternative stores of value.

However, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a modest inflow of $11.84 million on Tuesday, down from $238.37 million the day before.
This cautious approach reflects investor uncertainty surrounding the ongoing US-Iran peace talks. However, if ETF inflows continue to increase, Bitcoin could see further upside potential.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bullish bias remains

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish in the near term as Bitcoin is trading above both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $72,345 and $75,368, respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain constructive, suggesting that buyers are in control.

Resistance levels lie at the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $78,962, followed by the psychological $80,000 level and the 200-day EMA at $82,769. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart

On the downside, initial support is expected around the prior channel top at $75,680, with further protection from the 100-day EMA at $75,368 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $74,487. The 50-day EMA at $72,345 and the lower channel boundary near $62,950 provide deeper support.

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Barclays steps into stablecoin infrastructure with Ubyx investment

  • Ubyx focuses on clearing and reconciling stablecoins issued by different providers.
  • Barclays is prioritising regulated tokenised money rather than issuing its own stablecoin.
  • The stablecoin market continues to be dominated by Tether, with most usage confined to crypto trading.

Barclays has taken its first direct step into the stablecoin sector by investing in US-based settlement firm Ubyx, marking a shift in how the British lender is approaching digital money.

The move, as reported by Reuters, comes as global banks cautiously test how blockchain-based payment systems could be integrated into regulated finance.

Rather than issuing a token of its own, Barclays is backing market infrastructure that sits behind stablecoins.

The investment also reflects renewed institutional interest in crypto-linked systems after a sharp rebound in digital asset markets and a more supportive stance from US President Donald Trump toward the sector.

What Ubyx does

Ubyx, launched in 2025, operates as a clearing and settlement layer for stablecoins.

Its core function is to reconcile tokens issued by different stablecoin providers, allowing them to move more smoothly across platforms.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to track mainstream currencies on a one-to-one basis, most commonly the dollar.

While they are widely used within crypto trading, their fragmented issuance model has limited broader interoperability.

Ubyx aims to address that fragmentation by acting as a neutral clearing system rather than a token issuer.

Barclays has not disclosed the size or valuation of its stake, but confirmed it is the bank’s first investment in a stablecoin-related company.

Other backers of Ubyx include the venture capital arms of Coinbase and Galaxy Digital, according to PitchBook data.

Why banks are paying attention

Over the past year, banks and financial institutions have revived discussions around stablecoins and tokenised assets.

This renewed momentum has been driven by rising crypto prices and political signals in the US that are perceived as more favourable to the sector.

Stablecoins are increasingly viewed as a potential bridge between traditional finance and blockchain systems, particularly for settlement and cross-border transfers.

Despite this interest, most bank-led blockchain initiatives remain at an early stage. Institutions are still assessing regulatory boundaries, operational risks, and real-world demand.

Barclays has framed its involvement with Ubyx as part of a broader effort to explore tokenised money that remains within existing regulatory frameworks, rather than operating in parallel systems outside them.

Regulatory perimeter focus

A key element of the Barclays-Ubyx relationship is its emphasis on regulation.

The bank has said the collaboration is intended to support the development of tokenised money within the regulatory perimeter.

This approach aligns with how major lenders are positioning themselves in the digital asset space, prioritising compliance and supervisory clarity over speed.

In October, Barclays was among 10 banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, that announced a joint initiative to explore issuing a stablecoin linked to G7 currencies.

That project highlighted growing coordination among large banks, even as concrete launches remain some way off.

Stablecoin market context

The stablecoin market has expanded rapidly in recent years.

The sector is dominated by Tether, which has about $187 billion worth of tokens in circulation.

Despite their size, stablecoins are still primarily used for transferring funds within crypto markets rather than for everyday payments or corporate settlement.

By investing in Ubyx, Barclays is targeting the infrastructure that could support wider adoption if stablecoins move beyond their current niche.

The strategy suggests that major banks are preparing for multiple future scenarios, even as the practical use of stablecoins in mainstream finance remains limited for now.

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Coinbase gains India regulatory clearance for CoinDCX investment

  • Coinbase has been an investor in CoinDCX since 2020 and disclosed the latest infusion in October.
  • The approval follows Coinbase’s reopening of user registrations in India after a two-year hiatus.
  • CoinDCX reported a $44.2 million wallet-related security breach in July without customer fund losses.

India’s competition regulator has cleared Coinbase’s plan to deepen its ties with CoinDCX, marking another step in the US-based exchange’s renewed engagement with the Indian crypto market.

The approval allows Coinbase to acquire a minority stake in DCX Global Limited, the parent company of CoinDCX, at a time when global exchanges are reassessing their exposure to high-growth but tightly regulated jurisdictions.

For India, the decision signals a willingness to permit foreign participation in the digital asset sector under formal regulatory scrutiny, even as policy uncertainty and elevated taxes continue to shape market behaviour.

The clearance was issued by the Competition Commission of India on Wednesday, following a review of the proposed transaction.

It comes shortly after Coinbase reopened user registrations in India, ending a two-year pause in local onboarding.

Together, the developments point to a cautious but deliberate attempt by Coinbase to rebuild its presence in one of the world’s largest potential crypto markets.

CCI clears Coinbase CoinDCX deal

The Competition Commission of India approved the transaction involving Coinbase Global Inc. and DCX Global Limited, enabling the acquisition of a minority shareholding.

The regulator confirmed the decision through an official disclosure shared on social media platform X, stating that the proposed combination had received approval.

Coinbase has been associated with CoinDCX since 2022, having invested in the Indian exchange during its earlier expansion phase.

The latest approval formalises an additional capital infusion that was disclosed by Coinbase in mid-October, but required regulatory sign-off before completion.

Coinbase India return strategy

The investment approval aligns with Coinbase’s broader effort to re-enter India after scaling back operations in 2023.

Last week, the exchange resumed onboarding Indian users, initially enabling crypto-to-crypto trading.

According to company plans, a rupee on-ramp is expected to follow in 2026, expanding access beyond token swaps and improving local usability.

This phased approach reflects the constraints of operating in India’s regulatory environment, where compliance requirements and payment restrictions have previously limited foreign exchanges.

By strengthening its stake in CoinDCX, Coinbase gains indirect exposure to local market infrastructure while maintaining regulatory distance from day-to-day operations.

CoinDCX security and market context

The approval also comes after a turbulent year for CoinDCX.

In July, the exchange disclosed a $44.2 million security breach involving one of its wallets.

The company said at the time that customer funds were not impacted, but the incident added pressure in an already cautious market environment.

India continues to pose challenges for crypto platforms due to high transaction taxes and unresolved regulatory frameworks.

Despite these hurdles, the competition watchdog’s decision suggests that authorities are prepared to accommodate global firms, provided investments are structured and subject to oversight.

For Coinbase, the clearance offers a regulated pathway back into India.

For the broader market, it highlights how foreign exchanges may increasingly rely on minority investments and partnerships to navigate complex local rules.

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BNB Chain introduces new stablecoin for large-scale applications

  • BNB Chain has introduced a stablecoin to enhance cross-chain liquidity.
  • The token targets large-scale, high-volume usage across different sectors.
  • Community buzzes as Binance founder CZ follows a new stablecoin named U.

BNB Chain is planning a massive step into the stablecoin industry.

The platform took it to X to introduce a new stablecoin set to launch soon.

The new token aims to integrate liquidity across different applications while catering to high-volume, large-scale utility needs.

While most existing stablecoins have payment and trading as their primary use cases, BNB Chain’s upcoming token aims to seamlessly integrate into different financial platforms, dApps, and other blockchain-linked systems.

The late Tuesday X post read:

A brand new stablecoin will officially launch on BNB Chain. The goal is to integrate liquidity across various application scenarios – designed specifically for large-scale applications.

BNB Chain is looking to unify liquidity from various application scenarios for users and developers to interact with several financial services without fragmentation challenges.

With that, the Chain can maintain its competitiveness as scalability and interoperability see impressive demand.

CZ’s interest drives community buzz

The announcement sparked debates among the Binance community across crypto forums and social media.

Enthusiasts rejoice as the new stablecoin could solve liquidity issues for projects that need large-scale transactions.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao added to this excitement after recently following a new stablecoin project called U on X.

That has triggered speculation about a possible support and partnership.

The U stablecoin – designed for the next phase of digital finance

The new U stablecoin is a purpose-built asset designed to serve the changing needs of on-chain finance.

Its three core principles, Unified, Inclusive, and Fluid, underscore its goal to unify liquidity, support large-scale adoption, and ensure smooth integration across various platforms.

U will launch on December 18, and according to its X handle:

U is built on a comprehensive reserve management framework that prioritizes both security and liquidity – ensuring reliability at its core. Designed for individuals, institutions, and builders who demand unwavering stability.

Though without a formal confirmation, markets have interpreted CZ’s interest as a signal for possible future ‘U’ stablecoin integration on the Binance ecosystem.

Broad market context

The U debut comes as markets move to stablecoins that prioritize transparency, institutional-grade offerings, liquidity, and increased earning opportunities.

For instance, synthetic stablecoins have seen increased traction in 2025, outperforming giants like USDT and USDC in key metrics such as weekly volumes.

Stablecoins have been the primary gateway into the cryptocurrency market, allowing individuals to enter and exit anytime without the need for repeatedly converting to fiat.

Grayscale expects a boom in stablecoins in the coming year after the 2025 breakout that saw supply hitting $300B with $1.1 trillion average monthly transactions.

The report added:

In 2026, we expect to see the practical results: stablecoins integrated into cross-border payment services, stablecoins as collateral on derivatives exchanges, stablecoins on corporate balance sheets, and stablecoins as an alternative to credit cards in online consumer payments.

Binance is likely preparing to tap into this demand by integrating a new stablecoin into BNB Chain.

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Crypto overview: Markets calm as $4.3B in BTC and ETH options expire

  • Over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire today, December 12.
  • BTC trades above $92,300, with a maximum pain level at around $90,000.
  • Data shows balanced calls and puts, signaling a cautious stance among traders.

Cryptocurrencies remained elevated on Friday as Bitcoin recovered from post-FOMC retracements.

While most tokens trade below their key resistance zones, today’s gains brightened the mood across majors as uncertainty dominates even after the highly anticipated December 10 rate cut.

Amidst the optimism, the primary story remained the over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, on December 12.

With BTC price pinned above $92,300, analysts believe the event could shape the broader market’s trajectory as we close 2025.

Markets steady amid balanced expiry

Deribit revealed a curiously balanced options board, with 18,974 call contracts and 20,852 put contracts, for a combined open interest of 39,826.

Most importantly, a 1.10 put-call ratio confirms balance, with neither side dominating the market.

Clearly, there are no aggressive actions or euphoric calls that generally herald parabolic moves.

Rather, traders have positioned themselves to keep price fluctuations predictable and tight.

And that seems to work, as Bitcoin and Ethereum traded calmly as billions in notional value near a deadline.

Deribit analysts stated:

BTC positioning is tightly centered around the $90K level. Call and put interest sit in near balance, suggesting traders expect a contained expiry after the recent range-bound tape.

$90,000 as the magnet

The crypto community’s attention remained on the max pain region of $90,000 – where options bulls stand to suffer.

Generally, whales or market movers drive prices toward max pain.

Meanwhile, Derbit’s chart shows puts stacked massively between $75,000 and $85,000, with call interest heavy at $95,000 – $100,000.

Thus, Bitcoin is hovering at the most balanced region of around $90,000 – $92,000.

That indicates a calm market with no dramatic moves.

On the other hand, Ethereum is trading at $3,250, above its $3,100 max pain level, with open interest of 237,879 comprising 130,579 put contracts and 107,282 call contracts.

That leads to a 1.22 put-call ratio and approximately $770 notional value.

Indeed, Bitcoin is displaying restraint despite the massive notion value (nearly $3.7 billion is linked to BTC options only).

There’s no such thing as sudden liquidations, panicked shakeouts, or forced price gains.

That level of calmness during high-stakes events like options expiry seems rare, leaving most market players alert.

A market that ignores imminent pressure often waits for the next catalyst.

What’s next?

Options expiry weighs on crypto prices, and digital tokens often set clear directions after the event.

The options will expire at 8 pm UTC, and traders will closely watch post-performance.

Clearing $93,000 – $94,000 can trigger near-term recovery, with fresh calls toward the $100,000 psychological mark.

However, losing $90,000 could mean a continued near-term struggle for Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, traders and investors will watch signs of thin liquidity amid holiday sessions, which often intensifies moves, and year-end institutional repositioning through key indicators like ETFs.

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