XRP recovers but weak derivatives data limits bullish conviction

Key takeaways

  • XRP’s long-to-short ratio stands at a bullish 1.06 as funding rates turn negative. 
  • XRP holds above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $1.284 and $1.255.
  • A daily close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 could place $1.90 in focus.

XRP extended its recoveries on Thursday after finding support at important technical levels. However, conflicting funding rates, long-to-short positioning, and on-chain signals indicate that traders remain uncertain about whether the rebounds can continue.

XRP traded near $1.30 while holding above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. A close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 is required to strengthen its recovery.

XRP traders show mixed positioning

XRP’s long-to-short ratio rose to 1.06 on Thursday, approaching its highest level in more than a month, according to CoinGlass.

A ratio above one means traders hold more long positions than shorts, signaling a moderately bullish positioning bias.

Funding rates complicate the derivatives outlook for both tokens. XRP’s funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0040% on Thursday. 

Negative funding means short-position holders are paying longs, indicating that bearish positioning has become more aggressive.

This conflicts with XRP’s bullish long-to-short ratio and highlights the lack of consensus among futures traders.

CryptoQuant’s summary indicators point to cautious conditions across XRP’s spot and futures markets.

XRP is showing signs of overheating, while its futures market reflects sell-side dominance. Increased activity from retail traders could also introduce additional volatility if leveraged positions become crowded.

Taken together, the metrics suggest that XRP has not attracted enough consistent demand to confirm a sustained recovery.

XRP holds above the $1.25–$1.28 support zone

XRP traded near $1.30 on Thursday, maintaining a neutral and range-bound technical structure. The token remains slightly above its 50-day EMA at $1.284 and its 100-day EMA at $1.255. These moving averages create a broader demand zone between approximately $1.25 and $1.28.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 46, signaling neutral-to-weak momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero, showing that bullish pressure has yet to recover fully.

XRP/USD Daily Chart

A break below the moving-average support cluster could expose the psychological $1 level.

The 200-day EMA at $1.353 represents XRP’s most important near-term resistance. A daily close above this level would improve the technical outlook and could open a path toward the next major horizontal resistance near $1.90.

Failure to clear $1.353 would keep XRP trapped within its current range and leave the $1.30 area vulnerable to another pullback.

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Ethereum reclaims $2,431 as buyers absorb rate hike and regulatory setback

Key takeaways

  • Ethereum gained 1.7% and reclaimed the important $2,431 level.
  • US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $365.5 million across Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • A break above $2,544 could target $2,626, while major support sits near $2,269–$2,282.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.7% over 24 hours and reclaimed $2,431 despite the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase in three years and the CLARITY Act’s failure to advance in the US Senate.

Exchange outflows, renewed buy-side activity in perpetual futures and short liquidations suggest that crypto-native traders are buying the pullback. 

However, continued outflows from US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds indicate that institutional demand remains weak.

Ethereum holds above $2,400 after Fed rate hike

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on Wednesday.

The unanimous 12–0 decision was widely anticipated, with markets assigning a probability above 90% to the increase before the meeting. Most Fed officials also expect another rate hike before the end of 2026.

Higher interest rates generally pressure cryptocurrencies by raising borrowing costs and increasing the appeal of yield-bearing assets. 

However, Ethereum remained above $2,400, suggesting that traders had largely priced in the decision.

The CLARITY Act’s failure to secure the 60 Senate votes required to invoke cloture also produced only a temporary decline before buyers returned.

More than 152,000 ETH left cryptocurrency exchanges on Tuesday, marking the largest daily net outflow since June, according to CryptoQuant.

Inflows briefly exceeded withdrawals on Wednesday, but the metric subsequently returned to net outflows.

Large exchange withdrawals can suggest that investors are moving ETH into private wallets rather than preparing to sell it. They also reduce the supply immediately available for trading, potentially supporting prices if demand remains steady.

However, exchange flows can reflect transfers between custodians and do not always represent outright buying.

Ethereum’s taker buy-sell ratio has returned to buy-side territory after briefly signaling stronger selling on Tuesday.

The ratio compares market-buying volume with market-selling volume in perpetual futures. A reading above one indicates that buyers using market orders are more aggressive than sellers.

Liquidation data also points to improving sentiment. Ethereum recorded $221 million in liquidations on Tuesday, with long positions accounting for 88% of the total.

Over the subsequent 24 hours, liquidations declined to $87.6 million. Short positions accounted for $45.4 million, suggesting that rising prices forced some bearish traders out of the market.

Open interest remained close to 13 million ETH across two days, while funding rates returned to positive territory after briefly becoming negative.

Institutional flows present a less constructive picture. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $224.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, following $141.4 million in withdrawals on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue.

The products therefore lost a combined $365.5 million across two sessions. Continued ETF selling contrasts with the accumulation signals visible on cryptocurrency exchanges and in derivatives markets. 

This divergence suggests crypto-native buyers may be absorbing the decline while traditional investment vehicles face redemptions.

ETH reclaims the 20-Day EMA

Ethereum has recovered above the $2,431 horizontal level and its 20-day exponential moving average, both of which provided important support during the past month.

Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index stands at 53, while the Stochastic oscillator is near 26. These readings suggest consolidation rather than overbought conditions.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

Immediate resistance sits at $2,544. A sustained breakout could allow ETH to target $2,626 and then $2,786.

If Ethereum loses $2,431, the 50-day EMA at $2,282 and the 200-day EMA at $2,269 form the next major support zone. Lower levels include $2,172, the 100-day EMA at $2,163, and horizontal support at $1,961.

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Ethereum risks 10% drop against Bitcoin as double-top pattern emerges

Key takeaways

  • ETH traded near 0.03167 BTC as its performance against Bitcoin weakened.
  • A potential double top has formed with two peaks around 0.03344 BTC.
  • A close below the 0.03078 BTC neckline could trigger a 10% decline toward 0.0283 BTC.

Ethereum is showing signs of further underperformance against Bitcoin as a potential double-top pattern develops on the ETH/BTC daily chart.

Ether traded near 0.03167 BTC on September 16 after failing to sustain its latest advance. Weakening momentum, growing regulatory uncertainty, and a sharp increase in ETH deposits to Binance support a cautious near-term outlook.

A confirmed breakdown below 0.03078 BTC could send the pair approximately 10% lower toward 0.0283 BTC.

ETH/BTC double top signals potential decline

The ETH/BTC chart has formed two comparable peaks near 0.03344 BTC, with the first appearing in August and the second in September.

This structure resembles a double top, a bearish reversal pattern that develops when buyers repeatedly fail to break through the same resistance level.

The pattern’s neckline sits near 0.03078 BTC. Ethereum would need to record a decisive daily close below this level to confirm the bearish setup.

Subtracting the pattern’s height from the neckline produces a downside target around 0.0283 BTC. Reaching that level would represent an approximately 10% decline from Ether’s current value against Bitcoin.

Ethereum momentum weakens

The ETH/BTC Relative Strength Index has fallen toward 50 after previously moving above the overbought threshold of 70.

Although the RSI remains slightly above neutral, its retreat indicates that the momentum supporting Ethereum’s August-to-September recovery is fading.

Ether is still holding marginally above its 20-day exponential moving average at approximately 0.03162 BTC. A strong rebound from this moving average could delay or prevent the bearish breakdown.

A sustained move above the two peaks at 0.03344 BTC would invalidate the double-top scenario and restore a more bullish relative outlook for ETH.

The bearish technical setup emerged as the US Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15.

The procedural vote received 50 votes in favor and 49 against but fell short of the 60 votes required to move the legislation forward. A procedural vote change by Senator Thom Tillis preserves the possibility of reconsidering the measure.

The setback triggered a wider cryptocurrency sell-off. Bitcoin declined approximately 4% to around $75,900, while shares of major crypto companies, including Coinbase and Circle, also fell.

Regulatory uncertainty can encourage traders to favor Bitcoin over more risk-sensitive assets such as Ethereum. This could increase pressure on the ETH/BTC pair and bring the 0.03078 BTC neckline back into focus.

Binance receives 709,400 ETH in one day

Ethereum deposits to Binance have also increased sharply, creating another potential source of selling pressure.

Approximately 709,400 ETH moved onto the exchange on September 11, marking the highest daily inflow since June, according to CryptoQuant. Several recent sessions also recorded inflows exceeding 500,000 ETH, considerably above typical July and August levels.

Rising exchange inflows increase the amount of ETH immediately available for trading. Although transfers to exchanges do not necessarily mean holders intend to sell, unusually large deposits can precede higher market supply and increased volatility.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

The elevated inflows reinforce the cautious outlook created by Ethereum’s weakening relative momentum and the CLARITY Act setback.

ETH/BTC bulls must defend 0.03078

The bearish scenario depends on ETH/BTC closing decisively below the 0.03078 BTC neckline. Confirmation could open the path toward the measured target of 0.0283 BTC.

However, support from the 20-day EMA near 0.03162 BTC could allow Ether to rebound. A break above 0.03344 BTC would invalidate the double top and signal renewed Ethereum strength against Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin holds above key moving averages despite CLARITY Act sell-off

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin traded near $75,950 after falling more than 1% on Tuesday.
  • Ethereum and XRP declined more than 4% and 9%, respectively.
  • BTC remains above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $75,950 on Wednesday after declining more than 3% during the previous session as the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the US Senate.

Ethereum and XRP suffered steeper losses, falling more than 4% and 9%, respectively. Despite the market-wide pullback, Bitcoin remains above its major exponential moving averages, preserving its broader bullish structure.

Traders now await the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s forward guidance, which could determine the cryptocurrency market’s next major move.

CLARITY Act failure pressures crypto prices

The cryptocurrency market weakened on Tuesday after the CLARITY Act failed to secure sufficient support to advance in the Senate.

The setback reduced expectations that Congress would soon establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the US digital-asset market. Bitcoin fell more than 3%, while greater selling pressure across altcoins pushed Ethereum and XRP sharply lower.

Prices stabilized on Wednesday, but uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy kept buyers cautious.

The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and subsequent guidance could influence liquidity expectations, Treasury yields, and demand for risk assets. A more restrictive outlook could extend the crypto market’s correction, while a less hawkish message may support a recovery.

Bitcoin maintains bullish EMA structure

Bitcoin continues to trade above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are clustered between approximately $71,400 and $73,600.

The 50-day EMA stands at $73,581, while the 200-day EMA is positioned slightly lower at $73,108. The 100-day EMA provides additional support at $71,391.

This configuration remains constructive because BTC is trading above all three averages and the shorter-term 50-day EMA remains above the longer-term indicators.

However, Bitcoin must defend this support cluster to prevent the recent pullback from developing into a deeper correction.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index has slipped to approximately 49, placing it near neutral territory.

The reading indicates that neither buyers nor sellers have established strong momentum. However, the decline from higher levels shows that bullish demand has weakened following Tuesday’s sell-off.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains negative and below the zero line. This suggests that Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure is still intact, but short-term momentum currently favors consolidation or further downside.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

The 50-day EMA at $73,581 represents Bitcoin’s first important support level. If sellers push BTC below that level, the 200-day EMA at $73,108 could provide the next line of defense. A deeper correction would place the 100-day EMA at $71,391 in focus.

Failure to hold the entire moving-average cluster could expose the lower horizontal support levels at $66,500 and $62,300.

On the upside, Bitcoin faces significant resistance near $85,000. A sustained recovery above that barrier would signal renewed bullish strength and potentially restart the broader uptrend.

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Dogecoin dips below $0.083 as weak ETF demand and bearish positioning limit recovery

Key takeaways

  • Dogecoin is trading near $0.083 after finding support around its key moving averages.
  • Spot DOGE ETF activity remains quiet, signaling weak institutional conviction.
  • DOGE’s long-to-short ratio has fallen to a one-month low of 0.66, reflecting bearish positioning.
  • Positive funding of 0.0010% provides a modest bullish signal but does not eliminate downside risks.

Dogecoin (DOGE) traded below $0.083 on Tuesday after finding support around a crucial technical zone during the previous session.

The meme coin remains above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, providing a foundation for a potential recovery. However, subdued institutional demand, bearish long-to-short positioning, and cautious on-chain signals indicate that buyers have yet to regain strong conviction.

DOGE is now at a make-or-break level. Holding above its nearby moving averages could support another advance, while a breakdown may expose the token to a deeper correction.

Dogecoin ETF demand remains subdued

SoSoValue data shows that US spot Dogecoin exchange-traded funds have recorded little activity since last week.

The lack of meaningful inflows suggests institutional investors remain hesitant to increase exposure despite DOGE’s recovery from approximately $0.070.

Continued stagnation would deprive the token of an important source of demand. If ETF flows turn negative, selling pressure could increase and undermine Dogecoin’s attempt to establish a short-term bottom.

Dogecoin’s derivatives market offers conflicting indications about trader sentiment. CoinGlass data shows that DOGE’s long-to-short ratio fell to 0.84 on Tuesday, its lowest level in more than a month. 

A reading below 1 means short positions outnumber longs, indicating that more traders expect the price to decline.

Funding rates paint a slightly more optimistic picture. Dogecoin’s open interest-weighted funding rate turned positive on September 9 and stood at 0.0010% on Tuesday.

A positive funding rate means long-position holders are paying short sellers, reflecting some demand for bullish leveraged positions. However, the rate remains modest and does not fully offset the bearish message from the long-to-short ratio.

CryptoQuant’s market summary also points to a mildly bearish outlook. Large whale orders are appearing in Dogecoin’s futures market, but sell-side activity remains dominant. Spot-market conditions are heating up, while several other indicators remain neutral.

Together, these readings suggest that larger traders are active but are not necessarily accumulating DOGE aggressively. The market remains vulnerable to further weakness unless buying pressure strengthens.

DOGE holds above short-term moving averages

Dogecoin is trading above its 50-day EMA at $0.081 and its 100-day EMA at $0.082. This cluster forms the token’s immediate support zone.

However, DOGE remains below the 200-day EMA at $0.092, keeping its broader technical structure neutral to bearish.

The Relative Strength Index sits near 47, indicating balanced momentum between buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence line remains slightly below zero, showing that bullish momentum is still limited.

DOGE/USD Daily Chart

DOGE’s first notable resistance sits near $0.088. A breakout above that level could allow buyers to challenge the 200-day EMA at $0.092. If that barrier is cleared, the next significant supply zone would emerge around $0.102.

On the downside, losing the $0.081–$0.082 EMA cluster would weaken the short-term recovery. The next major support lies at $0.070, and a daily close below that level could trigger a more substantial retracement.

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