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AVAX breaks key pattern as $9 turns into major supply zone

  • The Avalanche (AVAX) token traded around $8.84 as sell-off pressure kept prices lower.
  • Bulls have failed to reclaim the $10 mark and fresh declines may push AVAX to lows of $6.30.
  • Sentiment across crypto is largely bearish.

Avalanche (AVAX) is facing mounting resistance just below the $9 mark, where persistent bearish pressure has stifled recent recovery attempts.

The altcoin’s bearish outlook aligns with broader cryptocurrency market vulnerability, and having recoiled off the resistance level, technicals suggest fresh losses are likely.

Avalanche price recap

AVAX has navigated a turbulent path over the past month, with prices falling since hitting highs near $15 on January 14, 2026.

The decline, currently putting the token 39% off its 30-day peak, has come amid significant macroeconomic headwinds and sector-wide profit-taking.

Bears have largely taken control despite Avalanche C-Chain’s recent network milestones, including throughput.

According to Ava Labs’ Martin Eckardt, the chain could hit over 4 million gas per second by next week.

The dip to under $8.30 on February 5, 2026, intensified the sell-off pressure, and bulls find it difficult to break higher.

In the last 24 hours, the token fluctuated between a low of $8.64 and a high of $8.96, with trading volume dipping 7% to 254 million.

The past week’s performance tells a similar story of stalled momentum.

AVAX has seen two green days out of seven, with volatility under 1%, as bears defend the $9 threshold amid extreme fear readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Avalanche price prediction: Technical picture

From a technical standpoint, AVAX has broken below a key weekly falling wedge pattern, with $9 acting as an immediate supply zone.

Further short-term bearish bias is from the weekly RSI at 30, with a move to oversold conditions hinting at a potential dip before another bounce on a volume uptick.

A notable leg down will rely on key support clusters at $8.50–$8.25, a zone reinforced by recent lows. If prices breach this defense line, bearish targets include lows of $7.50 and $.6.30.

On the other hand, upside catalysts will include a reclaim of $9.38 and a retest of the short-term max pain projection at the $13.90 resistance.

If indecisiveness resolves in favour of bulls, with the weekly MACD forming a bullish crossover, the next target will be the dynamic resistance mark coinciding with the 50-week moving average (at $19.42 as of writing).

The 200-day moving average is offering resistance at $23.69.

avalanche-avax-price-chart
AVAX price chart by TradingView

Avalanche’s lack of upside momentum mirrors Bitcoin’s struggle below $70,000. Crypto analysts see the overall market sentiment as still largely bearish, with forecasts for a potential dip to $50k for BTC.

Downside momentum will cascade across altcoins.

The post AVAX breaks key pattern as $9 turns into major supply zone appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Perpetual futures changed how retail traders perceived risk in 2025

  • Perpetual futures allow positions to stay open indefinitely, letting risk build over time.
  • Losses increasingly stem from prolonged exposure, not sudden price moves.
  • Contract design now plays a bigger role in risk than traditional entry and exit timing.

In 2025, many retail traders realized that futures risk no longer followed a familiar lifecycle.

Positions were no longer defined by clear start and end points, and losses were increasingly shaped by how long exposure was carried rather than by individual market moves.

As non-expiring futures became the default contract type, traders began encountering risk that developed through persistence instead of resolution.

This shift introduced a structural contradiction. Traditional futures contracts expire, forcing positions to be closed or rolled at predetermined intervals.

That process limits how long exposure can accumulate without intervention.

Perpetual futures remove this constraint. By design, they allow positions to remain open indefinitely, provided margin requirements are met.

While this simplifies participation, it also allows risk to build continuously, often without clear signals on price charts.

Educational coverage from Leverage.Trading focused on the structural mechanics of perpetual futures, detailing how the removal of contract expiry allows exposure to persist and why risk can deteriorate over time even when price movement remains subdued.

Risk that accumulates through duration, not volatility

Similar structural patterns have been observed in institutional research on derivatives markets.

For example, the BIS has reported that rising notional exposure and gross market values in derivatives markets reflect how risk can accumulate as positions persist over time, even without dramatic price movements.

As traders adjusted to this structure, several defining properties of non-expiring futures became more widely understood.

These properties did not describe market outcomes, but the conditions under which exposure is allowed to persist:

  • Futures contracts without expiry do not force risk to reset
  • Exposure remains active until manually reduced or automatically closed
  • Structural costs and pressures continue to accrue over time
  • Position vulnerability increases through duration, not only volatility

Understanding these properties changed how futures risk was assessed.

Instead of evaluating trades solely on entry quality or short-term price expectations, traders increasingly examined whether a position could withstand ongoing structural pressure over extended periods. 

From contract expiry to continuous exposure

This distinction mirrors the contrast between traditional futures markets, such as those operated by the CME Group, and perpetual contract models that dominate crypto derivatives, where contract duration is theoretically unlimited.

The educational explanations focused on how perpetual futures remain aligned with spot prices through continuous adjustment mechanisms, how funding and exposure interact across time, and why prolonged duration can erode position stability even in relatively calm markets.

By considering contract design alongside exposure and time, traders were better equipped to judge whether a futures position was structurally sound before entering it. 

Regulatory bodies such as the ESMA have also warned that prolonged leveraged exposure can magnify losses even when price fluctuations appear modest, reinforcing the importance of understanding contract mechanics rather than relying solely on price signals.

Why futures risk became a time problem

As futures markets expanded and participation broadened, isolated price outcomes became an unreliable way to interpret risk.

Education that clarified how non-expiring contracts carry exposure forward became necessary for understanding why positions often deteriorate gradually rather than failing abruptly.

This emphasis on contract structure reflects a broader shift toward risk-first explanations, a role increasingly associated with Leverage.Trading’s coverage of futures and leveraged markets.

Recognizing that futures risk now accumulates through continuity rather than expiration marked a meaningful change in retail trading behavior.

Explanations that clarify how contract design, exposure, and time interact help traders understand not just how futures positions are opened, but how and why they degrade without a defined endpoint.

The post Perpetual futures changed how retail traders perceived risk in 2025 appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Bitcoin ETFs bleed $410M amid $2.5B options expiry: is BTC facing deeper crash?

  • Bitcoin saw spot ETF outflows of over $410 million as prices struggled.
  • Over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Friday.
  • Analysts say “worst of downturn” likely over but market remains bearish.

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $410 million on February 12, as investors withdrew capital from the exchange-traded funds amid growing fears of a broader crypto market downturn.

And on Friday morning, Feb. 13, BTC price fluctuated near $66,800 as the market recorded a massive $2.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry.

Crypto analysts have shared their thoughts on what this could mean for the Bitcoin price in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and $2.5 billion options expiry

Data showed that on US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $410 million yesterday, with none of the 12 spot ETFs notching net inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with nearly $158 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had $104 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had over $59 million in exits.

This marked the second consecutive day of redemptions, following $276 million on February 11.

Institutional investors are pulling back amid Bitcoin’s struggles around the $67,500-$65,450 range.

The fresh ETF outflows coincide with a pivotal weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC on Feb. 13.

Approximately 38,000 Bitcoin contracts worth $2.5 billion in notional value have expired, primarily on Deribit, with a put/call ratio of 0.72 and maximum pain near $74,000.

Ethereum also saw 215,000 ETH options worth $410 million expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain point at $2,100.

These maximum pain points are at values well above spot BTC and ETH levels, and likely the driver of downward pressure as market makers look to hedge delta exposure on out-of-the-money calls.

Bitcoin price prediction

The ETF outflows and broader market weakness hinder bulls, and sentiment is skewed bearish, analysts say.

“Today saw the expiration of options accounting for 9% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.9 billion. This week, implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, with BTC’s main-term IV at 50% and ETH’s at 70%. While the downward price trend has moderated, market confidence remains weak,” analysts at Greeks.live noted via X.

Despite this outlook, the market may have “the most violent leg of the downturn” behind it. If sentiment improves, prices could pick up an upside trajectory.

In this case, a relief rally to above the critical $70,000 mark is likely.

However, ETF bleeding and macroeconomic headwinds could greatly cap upside momentum.

On Thursday, Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin price could retest $50k before rising to $100k by the end of 2026. The bank cites ETF outflows, macro pressures and broader risk asset sentiment as negative catalysts.

Notably, BTC tested support at $60k this month, and the elevated implied volatility, coupled with ETF exits, signals aggressive downside protection.

If outflows continue amid other highlighted downside triggers, the $50k level could be the next target.

The post Bitcoin ETFs bleed $410M amid $2.5B options expiry: is BTC facing deeper crash? appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Bitcoin Cash holds near $500 despite broader crypto market slump: check 2026 outlook

  • Bitcoin Cash price held near $500 as bulls battled intraday sell-off pressure.
  • The altcoin could retest key resistance levels amid Bitcoin’s gains.
  • However, Standard Chartered forecasts BTC could drop to $50k, and BCH will likely mirror this.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) price is demonstrating notable resilience, with bulls holding near the $500 mark as the broader cryptocurrency market downturn hits sentiment.

On February 12, 2026, the BCH price hovered between $496 and $523, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours but still within range of this crucial level.

Bitcoin Cash price holds $500 amid BTC struggle

The resilience comes as the broader crypto market faces pressure, including from macroeconomic factors.

Sell-off across the sector has seen Bitcoin struggle to reclaim the $70,000 mark, and on Thursday, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick highlighted the bank’s forecast for BTC in 2026.

Specifically, Standard Chartered has now slashed its 2026 target to $100,000 per Bitcoin, citing potential further pain before prices recover.

Amid downward pressure, the bank sees bears pushing BTC to support around $50,000.

Kendrick said in a note to clients that Ethereum will also likely drop to $1,400 before rebounding to highs of $4,000 in 2026.

While BCH remains near $500 and has held above the $450 support, this outlook for BTC and ETH suggests the coin could be at risk of further decline.

Negative sentiment will cascade to other Bitcoin-related tokens.

BCH price technical outlook and forecast for 2026

Bitcoin Cash price fell to around $468 on October 10, 2025, and to $454 on Feb. 5, 2026.

The two dates highlight the last two major sell-off events across the crypto market. If prices fall past this support base, a retest of June 2025 lows at $385 could follow.

Before this, Bitcoin Cash had rallied from $268 to $443 between April 9 and May 23.

From a technical perspective, BCH’s weekly chart indicates that the price currently hovers above a key horizontal support level.

The uptick between March and September 2025, and between November 2025 and early January 2026, also put prices above the middle line of a broader parallel channel.

The resistance level of this pattern lies near $700, while support is around $264.

Bitcoin Cash BCH Price Chart
Bitcoin price chart by TradingView

Currently, BCH’s price hovers at the 50-day moving average of $597, which has acted as support since Oct. 10, 2025.

If the price drops below the 50-day SMA, bulls could be in trouble. The weekly RSI sits in the neutral 40-50 zone. However, it is likely to suggest potential bearish acceleration before a rebound.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows strengthening bearish momentum after a bearish crossover in mid-January.

A weekly close above $510 could allow buyers a relief rally towards the channel resistance. However, if prices slip under $425, a revisit of $300-$260 could be next.

The post Bitcoin Cash holds near $500 despite broader crypto market slump: check 2026 outlook appeared first on CoinJournal.