Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP extended their weekly gains on Friday ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report.
• BTC remains above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.
• Bitcoin faces resistance at $85,000, while the first major support zone lies between $69,696 and $72,539.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP extended their weekly gains on Friday as traders awaited the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for the market’s next directional catalyst.

Bitcoin traded above $80,800 after gaining more than 4% during the week. Ethereum also strengthened after breaking and closing above the important $2,500 resistance level.

XRP maintained a cautiously bullish near-term outlook after rebounding from a key support level earlier in the week.

US jobs report could drive crypto volatility

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision.

A stronger-than-expected employment report may reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated or rise further, potentially weighing on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

Conversely, weaker employment data could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish position and provide additional support for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.

Traders should therefore prepare for increased volatility as markets adjust their interest-rate expectations following the release.

Bitcoin maintains bullish structure above key EMAs

Bitcoin traded at approximately $80,856 on Friday and maintained a firmly bullish technical structure.

BTC remains comfortably above its major exponential moving averages:

• The 50-day EMA at $71,126
• The 100-day EMA at $69,696
• The 200-day EMA at $72,539

The separation between Bitcoin’s current price and these moving averages indicates that the broader uptrend remains well supported.

However, the wide gap also leaves room for a correction if traders begin taking profits following the recent advance.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index stands near 71 on the daily chart. An RSI reading above 70 typically indicates that an asset has entered overbought territory. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it suggests that the rally may be becoming extended.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains in positive territory, signaling that bullish momentum continues.

However, momentum appears less aggressive than during the earlier stage of the rally, which suggests that buyers may be losing some strength as Bitcoin approaches resistance.

The horizontal resistance near $85,000 represents Bitcoin’s next major upside target. Fresh selling pressure could emerge around this level as traders take profits and previously sidelined sellers enter the market.

A decisive daily close above $85,000 would signal that buyers remain in control and could open the door to further gains.

Failure to clear the level may lead to consolidation or a short-term pullback as the market absorbs Bitcoin’s rapid advance.

Bitcoin’s first major demand area is formed by its three key moving averages. The 200-day EMA at $72,539 provides the highest level of dynamic support, followed by the 50-day EMA at $71,126 and the 100-day EMA at $69,696.

This creates a broad support zone between approximately $69,700 and $72,500. If Bitcoin falls below all three averages, the next horizontal support levels sit at $66,500 and $62,300.

A breakdown beneath those deeper levels would significantly weaken the broader bullish structure. For now, Bitcoin remains firmly positioned above support as traders focus on a potential test of $85,000.

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Key takeaways

• Shiba Inu trades near $0.00000516 after rebounding almost 4% earlier this week.
• Whale wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million SHIB have sold a combined 40 billion tokens since August 22.
• Smaller whales accumulated 990 million SHIB over the same period.
• SHIB’s long-to-short ratio of 0.93 signals bearish positioning in the derivatives market.

Shiba Inu traded around $0.00000516 on Wednesday after recovering nearly 4% earlier in the week.

Despite the rebound, whale selling and weakening derivatives data suggest that traders remain cautious about the dog-themed memecoin’s short-term outlook.

SHIB continues to hold above its 50-day exponential moving average, but growing selling pressure could increase the risk of another decline.

Large SHIB whales reduce their holdings

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data signals a bearish shift among some of Shiba Inu’s largest holders.

Wallets containing between 1 million and 10 million SHIB and those holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens have collectively sold 40 billion SHIB since August 22.

The selling followed SHIB’s recent price recovery and may indicate that larger holders are taking profits rather than positioning for an immediate extension of the rally.

Sustained whale distribution could place additional supply on the market and make it more difficult for SHIB to maintain its upward momentum.

While larger wallets reduced their positions, smaller whales moved in the opposite direction.

Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million SHIB accumulated approximately 990 million tokens during the same period.

The contrasting behavior indicates a transfer of supply from larger holders to smaller participants. However, the amount accumulated by smaller whales remains substantially below the 40 billion SHIB sold by the larger groups.

This imbalance suggests that new demand may not be strong enough to fully absorb the tokens being distributed by bigger holders.

Shiba Inu’s derivatives market also points to cautious sentiment. CoinGlass data showed that SHIB’s long-to-short ratio stood at 0.93 on Wednesday. 

A reading below 1 means short positions outnumber long positions, indicating that more traders expect the token’s price to fall.

CryptoQuant’s data presents a similarly cautious picture. SHIB’s spot and futures markets are showing signs of heightened activity, while the futures market has recorded large whale orders following the recent price increase.

Other indicators remain neutral, leaving the broader outlook mixed rather than decisively bearish.

SHIB rebounds from the 50-day EMA

SHIB’s nearly 4% recovery followed a retest of its 50-day EMA near $0.00000489. This moving average is currently the token’s most important near-term support. Its ability to attract buyers during the recent decline suggests that demand remains present at lower levels.

If SHIB holds above this support and buying pressure increases, the recovery could extend toward the 200-day EMA at $0.00000569.

A breakout above the 200-day EMA would strengthen the bullish case and could encourage traders to target higher resistance levels.

Shiba Inu’s momentum indicators reflect uncertainty among traders. The Relative Strength Index stands at 54 on the daily chart and continues to rise. 

Its position above the neutral level of 50 indicates that bullish momentum is gradually improving.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator produced a bearish crossover on Sunday. Expanding red histogram bars also suggest that downward momentum remains active.

The disagreement between the RSI and MACD supports a cautious outlook as SHIB consolidates between its key moving averages.

If selling pressure increases, SHIB could fall back toward the 50-day EMA at $0.00000489.

A decisive daily close below this level would weaken the recovery and could expose the token to a deeper correction.

Conversely, continued support above the 50-day EMA could allow buyers to challenge the 200-day EMA at $0.00000569.

SHIB’s next significant move will likely depend on whether retail demand can absorb continued whale selling and reverse the bearish positioning visible in the derivatives market.

The post Shiba Inu holds above key support as whale selling raises downside risk appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Pi Network is trading above $0.091 after gaining 10% in August.
• OpenPay has restored its cash-in feature, enabling users to convert PI and other altcoins into the OUSD stablecoin.
• PI must break above the $0.1000–$0.1022 resistance zone to strengthen its bullish outlook. 

Pi Network traded in positive territory above $0.091 on Tuesday, preserving the 10% gain recorded during August.

The token’s latest recovery coincides with OpenPay’s decision to restore its cash-in feature. The service allows users to convert PI and other supported altcoins into the OUSD stablecoin for payments and transfers.

Despite improving utility, PI remains below the psychologically important $0.1000 level. A confirmed breakout above this resistance is required to establish a stronger upward trend.

OpenPay restores cash-in support for PI

OpenPay, a Web3 decentralized wallet connected to the Pi Network ecosystem, announced on Monday that it had reintroduced its cash-in feature following community demand.

The service supports 96 partners, including Pi Network, local banks in the Philippines and international payment providers such as Apple Pay and PayPal.

Users choosing to pay with PI must first convert their tokens into OUSD. The resulting stablecoins can then be used for transfers, QR-code payments or transactions directed back toward a Pi Wallet.

Restoring the feature could increase PI’s practical utility by providing holders with additional ways to move and spend their assets.

However, OpenPay’s additional Know Your Customer requirements may raise privacy and accessibility concerns among some community members.

PI remains capped below $0.1000

PI traded around $0.0915 on Tuesday but remained below the $0.1000 psychological resistance level.

The price continues to move sideways above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0836. This retracement is based on PI’s decline from $0.1341 to $0.0703.

The consolidation indicates that buyers are defending lower levels, although persistent selling pressure around $0.1000 continues to limit the recovery.

PI must record a confirmed breakout above $0.1000 to strengthen its bullish outlook. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1022 reinforces this resistance, creating a significant supply zone between $0.1000 and $0.1022.

A decisive daily close above the area could encourage sidelined buyers to enter the market and extend PI’s recovery toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1204.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator and its signal line are moving sideways slightly above the zero level on the daily chart.

This setup suggests that bullish momentum remains weak despite PI holding onto its recent gains.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 52, slightly above its neutral midpoint. Although the reading provides a mildly constructive signal, it does not indicate strong buying pressure.

Together, the indicators suggest that PI may continue consolidating unless buyers generate enough momentum to overcome the resistance around $0.1000.

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0836 provides the most important immediate support.

A confirmed breakdown below this level could expose the swing low at $0.0703. Losing that support would weaken the current recovery structure and could push PI into a new price-discovery phase.

PI’s near-term direction will therefore depend on whether buyers can reclaim the $0.1000–$0.1022 resistance zone or sellers force a breakdown below $0.0836.

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Key takeaways

• Cardano slipped to around $0.210 after losing more than 7% this week.
• Whales holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA accumulated 160 million tokens since Sunday.
• ADA’s long-to-short ratio fell to 0.74, indicating that bearish positions dominate the derivatives market.

Cardano is trading at $0.210 on Friday after declining more than 7% since the beginning of the week.

Despite the pullback, on-chain data shows that some large investors are accumulating ADA. 

However, conflicting derivatives and on-chain signals suggest traders remain uncertain about whether the cryptocurrency can recover or extend its decline.

Cardano whales accumulate 160 million ADA

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data shows that large Cardano holders have been buying ADA during the latest price correction.

Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA accumulated approximately 160 million tokens since Sunday. The purchases indicate that some whales continue to view the lower prices as a long-term buying opportunity.

However, the accumulation has yet to generate enough demand to reverse ADA’s short-term decline.

Whale buying during a pullback can support a positive longer-term outlook, but it does not guarantee an immediate recovery—particularly when broader market sentiment remains cautious.

Cardano’s derivatives indicators present a mixed outlook. CoinGlass data shows that ADA’s long-to-short ratio stood at 0.90 on Friday, approaching its lowest level in more than a month. 

A ratio below one indicates that more traders hold short positions than long positions, reflecting expectations of further price declines.

The reading suggests that bearish traders continue to dominate the derivatives market despite the recent accumulation by whales.

ADA’s funding rate paints a slightly more optimistic picture. CoinGlass data shows that the token’s open interest-weighted funding rate turned positive on Thursday and reached 0.0013% on Friday.

A positive funding rate means traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions. This typically indicates that bullish positions are becoming more prominent, even though the long-to-short ratio continues to favor sellers.

The divergence between the two indicators highlights the uncertainty surrounding Cardano’s near-term direction.

CryptoQuant’s summary data supports this cautious view. Although the futures market has recorded large whale orders, selling activity remains dominant, while several other indicators are neutral.

Together, the metrics point to indecision rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend.

Cardano holds above key moving averages

ADA traded around $0.210 on Friday after losing more than 7% during the week. Despite the decline, Cardano remains above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages at $0.190 and $0.197, respectively. 

Holding above these averages gives ADA a slightly bullish short-term bias, although the token continues to trade below significant overhead resistance.

Momentum indicators are also cooling. The Relative Strength Index has retreated toward the upper-50 region, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram is contracting.

These readings suggest that the buying momentum behind Cardano’s recent rebound is weakening.

Cardano’s first major resistance sits at $0.213, corresponding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its latest decline.

A close above this level could allow ADA to target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.231, followed by horizontal resistance at $0.236.

Beyond those levels, ADA faces a significant supply zone between the $0.245 horizontal resistance and the 200-day EMA at $0.246. A decisive break above this area would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially clear the way for further gains.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.195.

This region is reinforced by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, making it an important support cluster for Cardano bulls. A sustained close below it could expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173.

If selling pressure intensifies and ADA loses $0.173, the token could retreat toward its stronger structural support around $0.150.

For now, whale accumulation offers some encouragement, but mixed derivatives data and weakening momentum leave Cardano’s short-term recovery uncertain.

The post Cardano whales buy the dip as ADA reclaims $0.211 appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Ethereum has gained 27% in seven days after breaking above $2,000 and triggering substantial short liquidations.
• Proposed SEC crypto rules and planned Treasury bond buybacks have strengthened risk appetite.
• Ethereum ETFs attracted more than $1.2 billion in August, their highest monthly inflow since August 2025.

Ethereum rallies 27% after breaking above $2,000

Ethereum has climbed 27% over the past seven days after moving above the psychologically important $2,000 level. The breakout triggered substantial short liquidations, adding momentum to the rally.

Improving regulatory expectations in the United States also supported the broader cryptocurrency market. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed framework for crypto assets could give projects more flexibility to raise capital without following the traditional securities-listing process.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department announced plans to double its bond buybacks beginning in September. The program is expected to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into financial markets, potentially benefiting risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand has strengthened alongside the price recovery. Investors poured more than $1.2 billion into Ethereum-linked exchange-traded funds during August, according to SoSoValue.

That represents the strongest monthly inflow since August 2025, when ETH reached its latest record high.

Crypto market sentiment has also shifted sharply. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose from below 40, indicating fear, to 80, representing extreme greed. It is the index’s highest reading since December 2024, when Ethereum traded near $4,000.

The change suggests that investors have adopted a more aggressive, risk-on position. However, elevated optimism can also increase the possibility of a short-term correction.

Ethereum’s on-chain data supports the improving outlook, but a key volume signal has yet to be triggered.

The gap between Ethereum’s seven-day and 30-day trading-volume moving averages has narrowed following renewed buying activity and the recent short squeeze.

A crossover in which the seven-day average moves above the 30-day average would provide stronger confirmation of bullish momentum. According to the analysis, this signal has identified the beginning of Ethereum’s previous bullish cycles during the past three years.

Until that crossover occurs, the rally still lacks full volume-based confirmation.

The successful implementation of Ethereum’s planned Glamsterdam upgrade could become the market’s next major catalyst.

A smooth rollout may strengthen confidence in Ethereum’s development roadmap and network capabilities. The upgrade could have an effect similar to the Pectra upgrade in April 2025, which coincided with improving market momentum.

Its impact will depend on implementation, adoption and broader financial-market conditions.

ETH may retest $2,200 before advancing toward $2,800

The weekly Ethereum outlook has shifted from bearish to bullish, with a medium-term target of $2,800. The revised forecast follows an earlier bearish projection of $1,600 for the first half of 2026.

A confirmed break above $2,200 is viewed as a potential buy signal. Historical price action suggests ETH could then consolidate between $2,200 and $2,800, resembling the pattern seen at the beginning of the April–May 2025 rally.

Momentum indicators nevertheless point to the possibility of a near-term pullback. Ethereum’s weekly Relative Strength Index has reached 88, placing it deep in overbought territory.

A correction toward $2,200 would relieve some of that pressure and could establish a stronger base for another advance. Failure to hold that level, however, would weaken the current bullish setup.

If Ethereum holds above $2,200 and subsequently clears the $2,800 resistance level, historical patterns suggest a longer-term target near $5,400.

That projection remains conditional rather than guaranteed. Ethereum would need continued ETF demand, supportive liquidity conditions, successful network upgrades, and sustained trading momentum to maintain the rally.

For now, $2,200 is the most important support level, while $2,800 represents the next major resistance.

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