Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Solana (SOL) trades around $78, gaining more than 2% this week.
• Spot Solana ETFs recorded $5.83 million in inflows, marking the second straight day of institutional buying.
• Derivatives data points to growing bullish sentiment, with the long-to-short ratio rising to 1.12.

Solana (SOL) remained steady around $77 on Wednesday, extending its weekly gains to more than 2% as institutional investors returned to the market.

Growing inflows into spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with increasingly bullish derivatives positioning, are improving the outlook for the cryptocurrency despite technical resistance continuing to cap upside momentum.

Solana ETFs record strongest inflows in weeks

Institutional demand for Solana showed further improvement this week. According to SoSoValue, spot Solana ETFs attracted $5.83 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows. 

It was also the largest single-day inflow since July 6, suggesting institutional confidence may be recovering after a quieter period.

If ETF inflows continue throughout the week, they could provide additional buying pressure and support a broader price recovery for SOL.

The derivatives market is also showing signs of growing optimism. Data from CoinGlass reveals that Solana’s long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.12 on Wednesday, approaching its highest level in more than a month. 

The increase indicates that leveraged traders are increasingly positioning for additional price gains.

The stronger long positioning reinforces the improving institutional sentiment reflected in recent ETF inflows, suggesting both retail and professional traders are becoming more constructive on SOL’s near-term outlook.

Solana price analysis: Can SOL break above $80?

From a technical standpoint, Solana continues to consolidate after recovering above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

SOL is currently trading near $78.05, holding above the 50-day EMA at $76.76 and the horizontal support level around $77.06. 

These levels continue to provide a solid foundation for the current recovery. However, the cryptocurrency remains below the 100-day EMA at $80.39 and well beneath the 200-day EMA at $92.87, leaving the broader trend cautious until these resistance levels are reclaimed.

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 54, indicating modest bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below the neutral line, suggesting buyers have gained some traction but have yet to establish a decisive uptrend.

The first resistance level lies at the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $79.27, followed closely by the 100-day EMA at $80.39.

A sustained daily close above this resistance zone would strengthen the bullish outlook and could open the door for a rally toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83.78.

On the downside, immediate support remains at $77.06, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $76.76. A break below this area could trigger a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74.75.

If bearish momentum intensifies, additional support levels are located at $69.16 and $60.13, although those areas are likely to come into focus only if sellers regain firm control of the broader trend.

For now, improving ETF inflows, rising bullish positioning in the derivatives market, and resilient price action above key support suggest Solana retains a cautiously optimistic outlook, provided buyers can push the token above the critical $80.39 resistance level.

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Key takeaways

• Shiba Inu (SHIB) trades above $0.0000042 after breaking above a key descending trendline.
• Five consecutive days of exchange outflows suggest investors are moving SHIB into private wallets, reducing selling pressure.
• Derivatives data remains bullish, with positive funding rates and a long-to-short ratio favoring buyers.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) extended its recovery on Tuesday, trading above $0.0000042 after breaking above a long-standing descending trendline. Improving on-chain activity and strengthening derivatives data suggest bullish momentum is building, potentially setting the stage for further upside.

Exchange outflows point to reduced selling pressure

On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates investors have been steadily moving SHIB off centralized exchanges, a trend often viewed as a positive signal for prices.

The platform’s exchange netflow data recorded five consecutive days of net outflows beginning on July 17, showing that more SHIB tokens are leaving exchanges than being deposited.

This pattern typically suggests investors are transferring tokens into private wallets for longer-term holding rather than preparing to sell, reducing immediate selling pressure in the market.

The continued decline in exchange balances could support SHIB’s ongoing recovery if buying demand remains steady.

Market positioning in the derivatives sector also points to improving confidence among traders.

According to CoinGlass, SHIB’s long-to-short ratio stood at 1.02 on Tuesday, indicating a slight preference for long positions over shorts and reflecting growing optimism that prices could continue moving higher.

Sentiment is further supported by funding rates. SHIB’s perpetual futures funding rate turned positive on July 17 and remained in bullish territory at 0.0103% on Tuesday. 

Positive funding rates indicate that traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions, a sign that bullish bets currently outweigh bearish ones.

The combination of positive funding rates and a favorable long-to-short ratio suggests traders are increasingly positioning for additional gains.

Shiba Inu price outlook: Bulls target higher resistance

From a technical perspective, SHIB has improved its near-term outlook after breaking above a descending trendline that had capped price action since mid-May.

The breakout places the meme coin in a stronger position to extend its recovery if buying momentum continues.

The next major resistance lies around $0.0000045. A decisive close above this level could pave the way for a move toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is also positioned near $0.0000045.

Momentum indicators have also turned more constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 54 and is moving towards the 60 level, signaling that bearish momentum is fading. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has produced a bullish crossover, with expanding green histogram bars reinforcing the improving technical outlook.

However, if the current recovery loses momentum and sellers regain control, SHIB could retreat toward its yearly low near $0.0000040, where buyers may attempt to defend the broader uptrend.

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Key takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) continues to trade in narrow ranges as investors await the next major price catalyst.
• Derivatives data presents mixed signals, with bearish long-to-short ratios offset by positive funding rates for XLM.
• XLM remains below key moving averages, leaving its short-term outlook dependent on whether bulls can reclaim major resistance levels.

Stellar (XLM) is trading within narrow ranges on Tuesday as investors weighed conflicting signals from derivatives markets and on-chain activity. Stellar remains under pressure near an important support area.

The combination of bearish positioning in derivatives markets and improving funding rates suggests traders remain divided on the next major move, increasing the likelihood of heightened volatility in the coming sessions.

Derivatives data paints a mixed picture for XLM

Market positioning remains uncertain across both cryptocurrencies. According to CoinGlass, the long-to-short ratio stood at 0.81 for XLM on Tuesday. 

Ratios below one indicate that short positions continue to outnumber long positions, reflecting a cautious outlook among derivatives traders.

However, funding rates tell a different story. Stellar’s funding rate flipped positive on Monday and reached 0.0068%.

Positive funding rates indicate that traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions, a sign that bullish sentiment is gradually improving despite the dominance of bearish bets.

Data from CryptoQuant indicates selling pressure continues to dominate both the spot and derivatives markets, with large whale orders pointing toward cautious investor sentiment. 

This persistent selling activity could limit the token’s ability to sustain any meaningful upside in the near term.

Key support remains under pressure

Stellar was trading around $0.187, continuing to consolidate near a critical support zone.

The token remains below its 50-day EMA near $0.189, while hovering just above the 100-day EMA around $0.187, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend this level despite the broader bearish trend.

Momentum indicators remain relatively subdued. The RSI is positioned near 53, reflecting weak but stable momentum, while a slightly positive MACD reading points to consolidation rather than a strong directional move.

On the upside, Stellar faces immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA, followed by the 200-day EMA near $0.196 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $0.200.

If selling pressure resumes, initial support lies at the 100-day EMA near $0.187, followed by the horizontal support at $0.177 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around $0.173. A deeper correction could expose the long-term support level near $0.142.

With technical indicators sending mixed signals and derivatives markets reflecting growing indecision, both XRP and Stellar appear to be approaching a pivotal point where a decisive breakout or breakdown could determine their next medium-term trend.

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Key takeaways

• Solana (SOL) traded lower on Monday, extending its corrective trend from early July.
• Institutional demand remains subdued, with SOL ETFs recording less than $1 million in inflows for a second consecutive week.
• Futures Open Interest declined while trading volume surged 78%, pointing to increased market activity but weaker conviction.

Solana (SOL) edged lower on Monday, continuing its recent correction as both institutional and retail market indicators pointed to weakening demand.

Although trading activity has picked up sharply over the past 24 hours, declining futures positioning and muted exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows suggest investors remain cautious about the token’s near-term outlook.

The combination of slowing institutional participation and growing bearish sentiment has kept SOL under key technical resistance levels.

Institutional investors continue to favor Bitcoin and Ethereum

Demand for Solana-focused investment products remained subdued last week.

According to CoinGlass data, SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted approximately $948,210 in net inflows, following $930,430 the previous week.

While inflows remained positive, they were significantly lower than those recorded by the two largest cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin ETFs, with $75.67 million in weekly inflows, and Ethereum ETFs with $105.44 million in weekly inflows.

The figures suggest institutional investors continue allocating capital toward more established digital assets rather than increasing exposure to Solana.

Retail trading activity increased sharply despite the recent price weakness. CoinGlass data shows that the futures trading volume jumped 78% to $5.37 billion over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Open Interest (OI) slipped slightly to $4.77 billion.

The combination of rising trading volume and declining Open Interest typically suggests positions are being closed rather than new bullish positions being established.

Meanwhile, funding rates have turned slightly negative, falling to approximately 0.0023%, indicating traders are increasingly willing to pay to maintain short positions.

This shift points to growing bearish sentiment among derivatives traders despite elevated market activity.

Solana price prediction: Will SOL fall toward $70?

From a technical perspective, Solana continues to trade within a short-term bearish structure.

On the four-hour chart, SOL remains below both the 50-period EMA at $76.32 and the 200-period EMA at $76.51.

These moving averages continue to act as immediate resistance, limiting the token’s recovery attempts.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 49, indicating neutral momentum with neither buyers nor sellers holding a decisive advantage.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned modestly positive, suggesting buying pressure is gradually improving.

However, the bullish momentum remains too weak to overcome the prevailing downward trendline.

If selling pressure continues, traders will be watching the following support levels:

• $73.50 — S1 Pivot support.
• $72.80 — Descending trendline support.
• $70.62 — S2 Pivot support.

A decisive move below the $72.80–$73.50 support zone could accelerate losses toward $70.62.

For the bullish outlook to improve, Solana must first break above its descending resistance trendline near $77.27.

If buyers reclaim this level, the next upside targets become the $81.92 resistance. 

A sustained close above the trendline would weaken the current bearish structure and increase the probability of a broader recovery.

Solana continues to face headwinds from both institutional and retail markets. While trading activity has surged, declining Open Interest, weakening funding rates, and modest ETF inflows indicate investors remain cautious.

Unless SOL breaks above the $77.27 resistance level, the correction that began in early July is likely to continue, with $70.62 emerging as the next major downside target.

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Key takeaways

• LayerZero (ZRO) fell about 3% on Monday, extending last week’s 9% decline.
• The network is set to unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens, equivalent to 4.6% of the total supply, increasing potential selling pressure.
• Despite bearish price action, futures trading volume surged 552%, reflecting heightened retail interest.
• Technically, ZRO remains in a downtrend, with support at $0.734 and a potential downside target near $0.532.

LayerZero (ZRO) extended its recent losses on Monday, falling roughly 4% as investors prepared for one of the project’s largest scheduled token unlocks.

The token has already declined about 9% over the past week, and the release of 25.71 million ZRO into circulation could add further selling pressure in the short term.

Although derivatives activity has surged ahead of the unlock, market positioning suggests traders remain cautious about the token’s near-term outlook.

Monthly token unlock adds supply pressure

According to Tokenomist data, LayerZero will unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens on Monday, representing approximately 4.6% of the token’s total supply.

The newly unlocked tokens will primarily be allocated to strategic partners and core contributors.

At the same time, approximately 1.67 million ZRO, or 0.3% of the released supply, will be repurchased through a buyback program.

The planned buyback may signal confidence from the project’s core team, but the additional circulating supply is still expected to weigh on short-term price action as investors assess potential selling activity.

While institutional allocations are set to increase, retail traders have become increasingly active in LayerZero’s derivatives market.

CoinGlass data shows futures trading volume surged 552% over the past 24 hours to $248.65 million. Meanwhile, Open Interest (OI) increased 4.52% to $80.87 million, indicating new positions are entering the market.

The rise in both trading volume and Open Interest suggests growing speculation ahead of the token unlock.

However, sentiment appears to be shifting. Despite higher trading activity, perpetual futures funding rates have weakened.

The funding rate declined to 0.0061% from 0.0121% a day earlier, indicating demand for leveraged long positions is easing.

Lower funding rates often reflect reduced confidence among bullish traders, particularly before major token unlocks that increase circulating supply and create expectations of additional selling pressure.

The combination of rising speculative activity and weakening bullish positioning suggests investors remain cautious heading into the unlock event.

LayerZero price prediction: Bears remain in control

From a technical perspective, LayerZero continues to trade within a well-established downtrend.

The token remains below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.957, reinforcing bearish momentum.

The outlook also remains negative following the death cross formed in late April, when the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA—a signal often associated with sustained downward trends.

Technical indicators continue to support the bearish outlook. Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads around 36, indicating strong bearish momentum while remaining above oversold territory.

Both the MACD and signal lines remain below zero and continue trending lower, suggesting downside momentum persists.

These indicators show sellers continue to dominate despite increased derivatives activity.

The most important downside support remains at $0.734, the major structural support and Fibonacci anchor.

A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling and expose the next technical target at $0.532. Reaching this level would represent roughly 25% downside from current prices.

If buyers manage to regain momentum following the token unlock, the first resistance zone sits around $0.945 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with another hurdle at $0.957 (50-day EMA).

A daily close above this resistance cluster would reduce immediate bearish pressure and could open the door for a move toward $1.325.

However, reclaiming the 50-day EMA remains necessary before a broader recovery can develop.

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