Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Dogecoin traded near $0.085 on Friday after losing more than 11% this week.
• Two large-wallet cohorts reduced their combined holdings by 100 million DOGE since Tuesday.
• A close below $0.084 could expose $0.078 and $0.070, with resistance beginning at $0.086.

Dogecoin traded around $0.085 on Friday, approaching a key trendline area after a weekly decline of more than 11%.

Falling balances among some large holders and weakening technical momentum suggest continued downside pressure. 

However, derivatives positioning offers a more mixed picture, with long positions outnumbering shorts in CoinGlass’ tracked ratio.

Large Dogecoin holders reduce exposure

Santiment’s supply distribution data shows that wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE and those holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have collectively reduced their balances by 100 million tokens since Tuesday.

The decline suggests some large holders are reducing exposure, potentially through profit-taking. Wallet balance changes alone do not confirm that every token was sold, but the movement adds to concerns about near-term supply pressure.

CryptoQuant’s summary indicators also point to caution. Its data identifies overheating conditions in both spot and futures markets, alongside large orders and sell-side dominance in futures.

These signals suggest that selling pressure remains significant as DOGE approaches nearby support.

Despite the price decline, CoinGlass’ DOGE long-to-short ratio stood at 0.90 on Friday, approaching its highest level in more than a month.

A reading above one indicates that longs outnumber shorts within the positions or accounts tracked by the metric.

Funding rates also remained positive at 0.0010%, meaning long traders were paying short traders to maintain their positions.

Together, the readings suggest some traders are positioning for a recovery. They do not establish that buying demand is strong enough to reverse the decline, particularly while price momentum remains weak.

DOGE tests $0.084 as momentum deteriorates

Dogecoin is trading just above the trendline area near $0.084, which serves as the immediate technical support reference.

A daily close below that level could open the way toward $0.078. A deeper correction would bring the next structural floor at $0.070 into focus.

The Relative Strength Index sits near 40, below its neutral midpoint and consistent with weaker buying momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence line remains below both zero and its signal line. Its negative, slightly expanding histogram also suggests sellers retain the near-term advantage.

DOGE remains beneath several important exponential moving averages, creating successive barriers to a rebound.

The first resistance is the 100-day EMA near $0.086. Above it, the 50-day EMA and a horizontal resistance level converge around $0.088.

Clearing those levels would help ease immediate bearish pressure. A stronger recovery would require a move above the 200-day EMA at $0.093, followed by a challenge of major resistance near $0.102.

For now, the balance between support at $0.084 and the moving averages overhead will help determine whether DOGE stabilizes or extends its weekly losses.

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Key takeaways

• XRP has declined nearly 7% over seven days after failing to clear resistance at $1.60.
• Trading volume remains around $3 billion, equivalent to nearly 4% of its circulating market capitalization.
• XRP ETFs have attracted just $4 million in October so far, compared with $121.4 million during September.

XRP has fallen nearly 7% over the past week after its latest rally failed to break through $1.60, leaving traders watching nearby support for signs that the correction could stabilize.

Trading activity remains elevated at approximately $3 billion, but slower ETF inflows and increased transfers to exchanges suggest buyers face a more challenging environment.

The pullback comes alongside broader crypto market weakness and cooling sentiment following the recent advance.

XRP ETF inflows slow sharply in October

XRP-linked exchange-traded funds attracted $121.4 million in net inflows during September, according to SoSoValue figures cited in the analysis.

Investors have added only around $4 million so far in October. At that pace, the report estimates monthly inflows of approximately $17 million, although the final total will depend on demand over the remaining sessions.

The slowdown points to weaker buying through investment funds. It does not establish that investors are withdrawing capital, since October’s cumulative flows remain positive.

Still, reduced ETF demand removes a source of support as XRP attempts to find a floor.

Onchain data shows that XRP inflows to exchanges have accelerated over the past two weeks, reaching their highest level since July 2026.

The earlier increase coincided with a decline from approximately $1.14 to $1.00. The analysis suggests another period of selling could follow the latest rise in deposits.

Transfers to exchanges can indicate that holders are preparing to sell, but they do not confirm completed sales. Some deposits may serve trading, collateral or other purposes.

With XRP retreating from resistance, the increased inflows nevertheless add to concerns that early buyers could take profits.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a recent high of 80 to 58, reflecting a shift away from strong optimism as prices correct.

The report argues that the macroeconomic backdrop has become somewhat more supportive than it was a few weeks earlier. It says the latest Federal Reserve minutes did not change the baseline expectation that another rate increase would be delayed until at least December.

Softer-than-expected August PCE inflation figures were cited as supporting that view.

However, expectations for a later rate hike have not prevented near-term profit-taking across the crypto market.

XRP technical outlook: Bulls hold the $1.32 support

The daily chart places XRP near its 200-day exponential moving average, with the analysts identifying approximately $1.32 as a potential rebound zone.

A successful defense of that area could help stabilize the price. If selling accelerates, the next support lies near $1.26, a level that has previously attracted buyers.

Below that, $1.26 represents a deeper demand zone and another important test for bulls.

Momentum has weakened, with the Relative Strength Index approaching 40, suggesting sellers retain the near-term advantage.

The medium-term target of $1.80 remains in play, but reaching it would require renewed demand and a sustained recovery through the $1.60 resistance that halted the latest advance.

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Key takeaways

• The token traded near $0.0823, recovering modestly from support at $0.0801.
• Futures open interest fell to $8.94 million from $10.38 million, a decline of approximately 14%.
• PI faces resistance at $0.0827 and $0.0902, while a break below $0.0801 could expose $0.0704.

Pi Network is trading lower on Thursday, offering a modest pause in its recent selloff as weakening derivatives activity and bearish momentum continued to cloud the recovery outlook.

PI traded around $0.0823, down by 1%, after seven consecutive bearish daily closes. The rebound followed a 7% decline the previous day and came as the token approached its July 31 low near $0.0801.

Despite the bounce, PI remained below key moving averages, leaving buyers with several technical barriers to overcome.

PI futures Open Interest falls approximately 14%

CoinAnk data showed Pi Network futures open interest declining to $8.94 million from $10.38 million the previous day.

The $1.44 million reduction represents a drop of approximately 14% in the notional value of outstanding positions.

Lower dollar-denominated open interest can reflect falling prices, closed positions, liquidations, or a combination of those factors. The figures alone do not establish how much of the decline came from traders exiting the market.

Nevertheless, the contraction suggests the rebound is occurring against a weaker derivatives backdrop rather than a clear expansion in speculative participation.

Santiment data showed PI’s social dominance at 0.13%, following a rise to 0.14% the previous day.

The readings indicate continued discussion about the token despite its recent losses.

However, social attention does not necessarily translate into purchases. Elevated conversation alongside falling open interest presents a mixed picture: PI remains visible to market participants, but that attention has yet to demonstrate a sustained improvement in demand.

Pi Network faces resistance near $0.0827

PI’s recovery began near $0.0801, but the token continued to trade below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0827, measured between $0.1341 and $0.0704.

Reclaiming $0.0827 would be an initial step toward strengthening the rebound. A sustained move above it could bring the 50-day exponential moving average at $0.0902 into focus.

The 200-day EMA stands considerably higher at $0.1247. Trading beneath both averages keeps the broader technical structure bearish despite Thursday’s gain.

The daily Relative Strength Index hovered around 38, indicating weak momentum without reaching the conventional oversold threshold.

Meanwhile, the MACD line moved below its signal line in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish momentum reading.

Immediate structural support remains at $0.0801. A sustained break below that level would expose the Fibonacci anchor around $0.0704, where buyers could attempt to establish a firmer base.

For now, Thursday’s bounce remains tentative. Holding $0.0801 and reclaiming $0.0827 would improve the near-term setup, while continued weakness would increase the risk of another leg lower.

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Key takeaways 

• XRP extended its corrections Thursday after three consecutive days of losses.
• CoinGlass showed negative funding rates for XRP, while its long-to-short ratios offered mixed signals.
• Reports of preparations for possible U.S. strikes against Iran introduced further uncertainty.

XRP remained under pressure Thursday as weaker derivatives signals and difficult macroeconomic conditions limited buying interest.

The asset extended its corrections following three consecutive losing sessions. XRP traded around $1.422, bringing its weekly decline to more than 6%.

Negative funding rates pointed to bearish pressure in perpetual futures, while elevated U.S. Treasury yields, dollar strength, and geopolitical concerns weighed on broader sentiment.

XRP derivatives show mixed positioning

CoinGlass’ XRP long-to-short ratio stood at 0.88 Thursday, indicating a slight tilt toward short positioning within the tracked dataset.

Funding rates were more consistently negative. After flipping below zero Wednesday, XRP’s rate stood at -0.0022% on Thursday.

Negative funding means shorts pay longs and can indicate stronger demand for bearish perpetual positions. However, neither funding rates nor positioning ratios guarantee the direction of the next price move.

The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized around 102.24 Thursday after reaching an intraday high of 102.53 Monday, its strongest level since early April 2025, according to the report.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.30% after touching approximately 5.35% Monday, described as a fresh two-decade high.

Higher yields increase the appeal of interest-bearing investments and can make conditions less supportive for speculative assets such as XRP and XLM.

Minutes from the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed unanimous support for raising the federal funds rate target range, according to the supplied account.

Most officials also expected another increase would likely be appropriate before year-end to address persistent inflation. That outlook reinforced the pressure from elevated yields and a firm dollar.

Iran strike reports add geopolitical uncertainty

The report also cited preparations for potential renewed U.S. military operations against Iran.

The Pentagon reportedly instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations while President Donald Trump considered the timing of possible strikes.

These reports describe potential action rather than confirming that an attack has occurred. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding an escalation could encourage defensive positioning, support demand for the dollar, and reduce appetite for cryptocurrencies.

XRP price outlook: $1.400 support faces a test

Despite its weekly decline, XRP remained above its key daily exponential moving averages.

The 50-day EMA near $1.400 provides immediate support, closely followed by the 200-day EMA at $1.389. Below that cluster, the 100-day EMA stands at $1.336.

Holding these levels would preserve part of XRP’s constructive technical structure. Momentum, however, remained weak: the RSI hovered near 45, while the MACD was below zero.

A sustained break beneath nearby moving-average support would bring $1.336 and horizontal support at $1.300 into focus. The report identifies $1.000 as a more distant downside reference.

On the upside, the analysis places notable resistance at $1.671. A sustained break above that barrier would bring $1.900 into view.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 during Wednesday’s Asian session.
• Rising oil prices added inflation concerns ahead of the FOMC minutes, keeping interest-rate expectations in focus.
• BTC’s immediate support lies around 80,000–82,000, while a sustained break above $87,000 could put $100,000 in focus.

Bitcoin weakened Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and assessed renewed inflation risks from rising oil prices.

Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 during Asian trading despite a return to inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. 

The moves highlight uncertainty over monetary policy. Although expectations for an October rate increase have eased, the analysis indicates that investors continue to anticipate a significant possibility of further tightening by December.

ETF inflows return, but Bitcoin struggles to advance

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $118.8 million in net inflows on October 6, following $89.8 million in outflows on October 5, according to Farside figures cited in the report.

The reversal offered a supportive demand signal, but it did not prevent Bitcoin from falling below $84,000 the following morning.

The uneven flows suggest that investment demand has yet to provide consistent backing for a sustained advance. Continued inflows would strengthen the recovery case, particularly if accompanied by firmer spot buying.

The FOMC minutes could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps. A stronger preference for additional rate increases could pressure both assets. Higher interest rates raise the appeal of interest-bearing investments and increase the opportunity cost of holding gold or Bitcoin.

A more patient policy tone could provide support, but rising energy prices complicate that outlook.

Oil advanced Wednesday as a storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico and attacks in the Middle East raised concerns about supply disruptions. If higher energy costs sustain inflation, expectations for further monetary tightening could strengthen.

Bitcoin price outlook: $80,000 support remains crucial

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows consolidation within an ascending broadening wedge, with immediate support around $80,000–$82,000.

Holding that zone would preserve the constructive near-term scenario outlined in the analysis. A sustained move above $87,000 could then put the $100,000 level in focus.

A break below $80,000 would weaken that setup and expose the 70,000–75,000 range. Further losses below $70,000 could bring support around $65,000 into view.

On the weekly chart, analysts identify a longer-term support zone between $50,000 and $60,000 and a potential cup formation within an ascending channel.

A future breakout above $100,000 could support an extension toward $150,000 under that bullish scenario. Those levels remain conditional technical projections rather than assured outcomes.

Bitcoin’s renewed ETF inflows provide encouragement, but stronger and more persistent demand would be needed to absorb selling and sustain a breakout.

The immediate technical focus remains on defending $80,000–$82,000 and overcoming $87,000 resistance. 

Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes and energy-driven inflation concerns could influence both Bitcoin and gold through changes in rate expectations.

Failure to hold Bitcoin’s nearby support would instead increase the risk of a deeper correction.

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