Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio fell to 0.68, its lowest reading in more than a month.
• CryptoQuant data flagged overheated spot and futures conditions, with sell-side dominance among large futures orders.
• Immediate support lies at $0.088, followed by $0.086 and $0.085; reclaiming $0.093 would ease bearish pressure.

Dogecoin extended its losses Wednesday, trading near $0.090 as increasingly bearish derivatives positioning and fading technical momentum weighed on the meme coin.

DOGE has declined more than 5% so far this week. Although the price remains above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, its failure to recover the 200-day EMA leaves the near-term outlook vulnerable.

Market data and price prediction also point to a growing preference for short positions, while large futures orders show stronger selling activity.

Dogecoin long-to-short ratio drops to a monthly low

CoinGlass’ Dogecoin long-to-short ratio stood at 0.85 on Wednesday, its lowest level in more than a month.

A reading below one indicates that short positioning outweighs long positioning within the tracked dataset. The decline therefore suggests traders have become more bearish as DOGE’s weekly losses deepen.

However, the ratio measures positioning rather than guaranteeing the direction of the next price move. A crowded bearish trade can also become vulnerable to a reversal if buying demand returns.

For now, the reading reinforces the cautious tone surrounding Dogecoin.

CryptoQuant’s summary data identified overheating conditions across Dogecoin’s spot and futures markets.

The platform also highlighted large orders in the futures market, with sell-side activity dominating. Taken together, those signals suggest elevated trading activity is occurring alongside pressure from sellers.

Overheating alone does not establish that prices must decline. In this case, however, the sell-side imbalance and weaker long-to-short ratio support a bearish interpretation of the market snapshot.

DOGE struggles below its 200-Day moving average

Dogecoin remained below its 200-day EMA near $0.093, making that level an immediate obstacle to recovery.

The price continued to hold above the 50-day EMA at $0.088 and the 100-day EMA at $0.086. These levels indicate that some underlying support remains despite the recent pullback.

Momentum indicators were less supportive. The Relative Strength Index hovered near 48, slightly below its neutral midpoint of 50, while the MACD line was marginally negative.

Together, those readings suggest buyers have lost momentum without the market yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

Immediate support sits around $0.088, where the 50-day EMA aligns with a horizontal price level.

If that support fails, the next reference points are the 100-day EMA at $0.086 and the former trendline breakout area near $0.085. A daily close below this zone would weaken the technical structure and bring the deeper horizontal support at $0.070 into focus.

For a recovery, DOGE first needs to reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.093. A sustained move above it would ease immediate bearish pressure and shift attention toward resistance around $0.102.

Until then, Dogecoin faces a test of nearby support as bearish positioning and subdued momentum limit its recovery prospects.

The post Dogecoin dips 5% this week as bearish positioning puts $0.088 support in focus appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin has dropped below $86,000 on Tuesday after gaining more than 12% across three consecutive positive weeks.
• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $90 million following last week’s massive inflow. 
• Resistance stands at $87,599 and near $90,000, while $85,000 remains immediate support.

Bitcoin consolidates after three weeks of gains

Bitcoin held below $86,000 on Tuesday, preserving a recovery of more than 12% since mid-September as ETF demand and shifting interest-rate expectations supported sentiment.

The cryptocurrency has recorded three consecutive weekly gains and is approaching resistance that could determine whether buyers extend the advance toward $90,000.

Its technical structure remains constructive across daily and weekly charts. However, some daily momentum readings have moderated, suggesting consolidation near recent highs rather than an uninterrupted climb.

Holding the nearby $85,000 support level would help preserve that bullish structure. A break below it would increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.

The result marked a third consecutive positive week, showing that demand through these products continued alongside bitcoin’s price recovery.

However, the week began negatively, with the funds recording an outflow of $90 million on Monday. 

Repeated inflows provide a supportive backdrop, although they do not guarantee further gains. Their significance will depend on whether buying persists and how it compares with selling elsewhere in the market.

An acceleration in inflows would strengthen the demand picture as bitcoin approaches overhead resistance. Conversely, weaker flows could leave the recovery more dependent on other buyers.

For now, ETF activity remains one of the factors supporting the recent advance.

Weak payrolls reduce October hike expectations

Investors also scaled back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase after Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report.

September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, falling short of the expected 90,000 increase. August’s gain was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000.

Following the report, CME FedWatch placed the probability of an October rate hike at 18.3% on Monday, down from approximately 70% the previous week.

Reduced expectations for tightening can support risk assets by easing concerns about more restrictive financial conditions.

However, lower hike odds are not a promise of easier policy. They reflect market pricing that can change as additional economic data becomes available.

Bitcoin technical forecast: Weekly resistance stands between BTC and $90,000

On the weekly chart, bitcoin faces initial resistance at $87,599, the 50% retracement between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199.

A successful close above that level would bring the 100-week simple moving average at approximately $89,832 into focus, followed by the psychological $90,000 threshold.

Weekly momentum supports the recovery. The Relative Strength Index is around 62 and rising, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows expanding positive histogram bars.

If resistance holds and a broader correction develops, the cited downside references include the $78,490 Fibonacci level and the 50-day SMA near $77,201.

The daily chart shows bitcoin above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias.

The daily RSI stands near 67, indicating strong momentum just below conventional overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has eased toward zero, suggesting upward pressure is slowing.

Immediate support lies at $85,000. A daily close below that floor would weaken the consolidation structure and expose the 50-day EMA near $79,189.

Further below, the 100-day EMA at $75,367 and the 200-day EMA near $74,994 form a deeper support area. More distant horizontal levels sit at $66,500 and $62,300.

Bitcoin’s recovery remains intact, but clearing $87,599 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers can carry the move toward $90,000.

The post Bitcoin slips below $86k as ETF outflows cap recovery efforts appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Zcash trades around $1,348 on Tuesday, holding modest gains that began Sunday.
• NU7 is active on the public testnet, with a mainnet decision scheduled for Oct. 20 and deployment targeted for Nov. 5.
• Improving momentum supports recovery prospects, but ZEC must clear resistance around $1,377–$1,384. 

Zcash is consolidating below $1,348 on Tuesday, maintaining modest gains from Sunday as investors assess slower ETF withdrawals and progress toward the network’s next upgrade.

The privacy-focused cryptocurrency faces a mixed near-term picture. Momentum indicators are improving, but its price remains below two important moving averages on the four-hour chart.

Meanwhile, smaller withdrawals from Grayscale’s Zcash-focused fund suggest redemption pressure has moderated. 

However, outflows remain negative, meaning the latest figures indicate reduced selling through that channel rather than renewed net buying.

The combination provides a more supportive backdrop for recovery, although a sustained price breakout has yet to materialize.

NU7 tests faster blocks and revised mining rewards

Zcash’s NU7 upgrade is now active on the public testnet. Developers are scheduled to decide on mainnet activation on Oct. 20, with Nov. 5 remaining the target deployment date.

The upgrade reduces targeted block spacing from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Producing blocks more frequently could shorten confirmation waits, although it does not guarantee that every transaction will complete three times faster. 

Actual block intervals and the confirmation requirements set by individual services still matter.

NU7 also introduces a Network Sustainability Mechanism that redirects 60% of transaction fees toward future mining rewards. Another change limits shielded actions to help reduce network spam.

If activated on mainnet, the upgrade would disable legacy Sprout version 4 transactions. Users with funds remaining in that pool would need to move them beforehand to retain the ability to spend them through the existing system.

These changes remain in testing. Their potential benefits have not yet been deployed across the live Zcash network.

Grayscale’s ZCSH fund recorded approximately $3.57 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue data.

That followed $93.56 million in total withdrawals last week, including three sessions with more than $25 million in outflows each.

Monday’s smaller withdrawal represents an improvement from those individual sessions. However, comparing one trading day with an entire week does not establish how the current week will finish.

The latest data suggests less immediate pressure from redemptions, while leaving the direction of future flows uncertain. A return to sustained inflows would provide stronger evidence that demand through the fund is recovering.

Improving momentum meets overhead resistance

On the four-hour chart, ZEC remains below its 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages at approximately $1,377 and $1,384.

That cluster forms the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above both averages would improve the near-term structure and bring $1,422, the broken Sept. 18 low, into focus.

Beyond that level, the Sept. 23 high at $1,679 represents a more distant upside reference.

Momentum indicators offer some encouragement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has crossed above its signal line, with its histogram expanding into positive territory.

The Relative Strength Index is near 50, indicating broadly neutral momentum. The supplied analysis also identifies a bullish divergence, suggesting selling momentum may be weakening, though price confirmation remains necessary.

The rising 200-period EMA near $1,281 provides the immediate support reference beneath the current consolidation.

Holding that level would preserve the possibility that recent weakness is a correction within the broader recovery. A sustained break below it would weaken that interpretation and expose the next cited support near $1,050.

For now, Zcash remains between a rising support average and overhead resistance. Slower ETF withdrawals and improving momentum help the recovery case, but clearing $1,377–$1,384 would provide a more concrete bullish signal.

The post Zcash dips below $1,348 as ETF outflows ease and NU7 enters testing appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• PI trades near $0.0865 on Monday, extending its decline for a fifth consecutive day.
• Futures open interest rises to $10.15 million from $9.78 million, indicating increased outstanding exposure.
• Support sits at $0.0827 and $0.0801, with initial recovery resistance at $0.0911.

Pi Network extends losses despite broader market optimism

Pi Network continues to weaken on Monday, trading below $0.090 as its losing streak stretches to five consecutive days. At approximately $0.0865, the token remains under pressure despite relatively upbeat sentiment across the wider cryptocurrency market.

The broader Fear and Greed Index stands at 67, according to CoinMarketCap, placing sentiment in greed territory. That reading suggests market participants retain an appetite for risk, but the optimism has yet to translate into a sustained recovery for PI.

The divergence highlights the importance of the token’s own price structure. While the wider market mood provides context, PI’s declining price and subdued momentum indicators suggest buyers have struggled to regain control.

Its next move will depend on whether nearby support attracts sufficient demand to interrupt the decline or selling pressure pushes the token toward its recent lows.

CoinAnk data shows PI futures open interest at $10.15 million, up from $9.78 million the previous day. The increase of approximately 3.8% indicates a modest buildup in outstanding derivatives exposure while the spot price continues to fall.

Open interest measures the notional value of active contracts. Its increase points to continued participation, but does not reveal whether that positioning is predominantly bullish or bearish.

Consequently, the latest rise should not be treated as confirmation of stronger buying demand. New short positions, additional long exposure or a combination of both could contribute to the increase.

For traders holding leveraged long positions, continued spot weakness presents a risk. Rising open interest alongside falling prices makes the direction and resilience of that exposure relevant, although the supplied figures do not establish which side dominates.

Moving averages and momentum favor sellers

PI remains below its major daily exponential moving averages, reinforcing the bearish technical picture.

The 50-day EMA stands at $0.0911, above the current price and acting as the first recovery hurdle. The 100-day EMA sits near $0.0991, while the 200-day EMA is considerably higher at $0.1219.

This arrangement shows that PI has yet to reclaim either its shorter-term trend reference or the averages associated with its broader price direction.

Momentum indicators also lean bearish. The Relative Strength Index reads approximately 43, below the neutral midpoint of 50. That suggests weaker buying momentum, though the indicator has not reached conventional oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains slightly negative. Together, the RSI and MACD readings support a cautious near-term outlook, with sellers retaining the technical advantage.

Immediate support lies at $0.0827, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement measured between $0.1341 and $0.0704. The July 31 low at $0.0801 provides another nearby reference.

If PI loses those levels, the $0.0704 swing low becomes the next downside area to monitor. A move toward that level would represent a deeper extension of the current decline rather than confirmation that a rebound is underway.

For a recovery, buyers first need to overcome the 50-day EMA at $0.0911. Beyond it, resistance clusters around the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.0990 and the 100-day EMA at $0.0991.

Reclaiming those barriers would improve the technical picture. Until then, rising derivatives participation offers limited reassurance against the token’s persistent price weakness.

The post PI dips below $0.090 as bearish momentum builds despite rising OI appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Spot DOGE ETFs attracted $327,360, extending their inflow streak to three weeks.
• CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio reached 1.01, indicating a slight bullish tilt.
• Holding the 200-day EMA near $0.093 preserves the recovery outlook, with resistance at $0.102.

Dogecoin is extending its recovery on Monday, trading above $0.096 as continued ETF inflows and improving derivatives positioning support sentiment.

The meme coin found support around a key technical zone last week and remains above its major daily moving averages. However, momentum indicators present a mixed picture, suggesting buyers retain an advantage without establishing a decisive acceleration.

The immediate test is whether DOGE can defend its 200-day exponential moving average near $0.093 and generate enough demand to challenge resistance at $0.102.

DOGE ETFs extend their inflow streak

Spot Dogecoin ETFs recorded $327,360 in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.

The positive total marked a third consecutive week of inflows, showing that investors continued adding exposure through the products.

Although the streak supports the demand picture, ETF flows represent only one part of Dogecoin’s market. The figures do not establish that every allocation came from an institutional investor or that buying through the funds will outweigh selling elsewhere.

Continued positive flows would reinforce the recovery case, particularly if allocations increase. Conversely, a slowdown or reversal would weaken one of the supporting factors behind the current advance.

For now, the main signal is consistency: the funds have maintained net buying for three straight weeks.

CoinGlass’ Dogecoin long-to-short ratio stood at 1.01 on Monday, moving slightly above the neutral threshold of one.

The reading indicates a marginal tilt toward long positions within the dataset. It is an improvement in sentiment, but its proximity to one suggests positioning remains nearly balanced rather than overwhelmingly bullish.

DOGE’s funding rate also supports that interpretation. After turning positive on September 10, it reached 0.0092% on Monday.

Positive funding means long traders are paying short traders, generally reflecting stronger demand for bullish exposure in perpetual futures.

However, funding is a positioning indicator rather than a prediction. If price weakens, leveraged longs can come under pressure despite positive sentiment.

Together, the two readings suggest improving confidence, while leaving room for caution about the strength of traders’ conviction.

The 200-Day EMA anchors the recovery

Dogecoin’s near-term technical outlook remains constructive while price holds above the 200-day EMA at approximately $0.093.

The shorter moving averages sit below that level, with the 50-day EMA near $0.088 and the 100-day EMA around $0.086.

Trading above all three averages supports the current recovery structure. The 200-day EMA is particularly relevant because it forms the nearest major support beneath the reported price.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 58, indicating positive momentum without an overbought reading.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, however, has slipped marginally into negative territory. That points to fading upward momentum and suggests DOGE may need further consolidation before attempting a stronger advance.

The first notable upside barrier is $0.102, approximately 6% above $0.096. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the case for extending the recovery. 

Buyers would need to maintain the breakout rather than briefly push through resistance before retreating.

On the downside, losing $0.093 would bring the $0.088 horizontal support and nearby 50-day EMA into focus. The next moving-average support lies around $0.086, with a more distant structural floor at $0.070.

DOGE’s outlook therefore remains cautiously bullish. Continued ETF buying and supportive derivatives positioning could help, but defending $0.093 and clearing $0.102 are the key price tests.

The post Dogecoin tops $0.096 as ETF inflows and derivatives signal improving sentiment appeared first on CoinJournal.