Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Ethereum fell 0.7% as annual US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%.
• Polymarket traders assigned a 62% probability to a rate hike at the next Fed meeting.
• ETH is testing support at $2,431 and $2,405, with resistance near $2,545.

Ethereum (ETH) traded 0.7% lower on Friday as it attempted to recover from selling pressure triggered by stronger US producer inflation data.

The hotter annual inflation reading increased expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, creating a challenging environment for risk assets. Although Ethereum remains above its major moving averages, retail selling, hesitant derivatives traders, and slowing institutional demand could limit its near-term recovery.

US producer inflation rises to 5.4%

The US Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% in August, matching market expectations after a revised 0.1% gain in July.

On an annual basis, producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%. Energy prices contributed significantly to the increase, rising 4.2% amid higher oil prices. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, also advanced 0.4% during the month.

The data preceded Friday’s Consumer Price Index report, another potential catalyst for expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting.

Prediction-market data from Polymarket showed traders assigning a 62% probability to an interest-rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting. The estimated likelihood of a hike by October stood at 71%.

Markets also increasingly expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to begin his tenure with a rate increase, marking a sharp shift from earlier policy expectations.

Higher rates could pressure Ethereum by tightening financial conditions and increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets. They could also discourage the leveraged trading and speculative activity that often support cryptocurrency rallies.

Despite the difficult macroeconomic backdrop, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds registered $34.75 million in net inflows on Wednesday.

The positive result offset the $24 million withdrawn on Tuesday and indicated that some institutional investors continued accumulating ETH during its two-week consolidation.

However, weekly ETF demand has slowed. The products attracted $218.4 million last week, down sharply from the yearly high of $824 million recorded during the preceding week.

This slowdown suggests institutional interest remains positive but has lost momentum.

Retail investors sold a combined 307,000 ETH last week, significantly exceeding the 82,000 ETH accumulated by whales.

The imbalance shows that smaller holders have taken a more cautious approach following Ethereum’s recovery in late August. Persistent retail distribution could increase the available supply and limit attempts to push the price higher.

Ethereum’s price has also risen faster than futures open interest. The divergence suggests leveraged long traders remain reluctant to commit substantial fresh capital to the recovery.

Ethereum tests 20-day EMA and $2,431 support

Ethereum is testing horizontal support near $2,431 and its 20-day exponential moving average around $2,405.

Despite the pullback, ETH remains comfortably above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, which are clustered between approximately $2,223 and $2,256. This positioning keeps the broader uptrend intact.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 59, maintaining a modest bullish tilt while showing that momentum has cooled. The Stochastic Oscillator is also moving toward its midpoint, indicating moderation rather than a confirmed bearish reversal.

If Ethereum rebounds, its first major resistance sits near $2,545. A decisive close above this level could expose the next barriers at $2,626 and $2,787.

On the downside, losing $2,405 and $2,431 would shift attention to the moving-average support cluster between $2,223 and $2,256. Further support lies at $2,172, followed by the broader trend floors at $1,961 and $1,810.

A sequence of daily closes above the overhead resistance levels would restore stronger bullish momentum and reopen the path toward new local highs.

The post Ethereum tests the $2,431 support as hot US inflation pressures crypto market appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• PEPE trades near $0.00000348 after rejection at its 200-day EMA.
• Whales holding 10 million to 100 million PEPE have sold 80 billion tokens since August 25.
• A break below $0.00000313 could trigger a correction toward $0.00000230.

Pepe (PEPE) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading near $0.00000348 after failing to overcome a crucial resistance level.

On-chain data shows that large holders have been reducing their positions, potentially increasing near-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, conflicting derivatives signals and weakening technical momentum leave PEPE exposed to a deeper price correction.

PEPE whales take profits after August rally

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data shows that some of PEPE’s largest holders have been selling tokens following the meme coin’s strong gains in mid-August.

Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million PEPE have collectively offloaded approximately 80 billion tokens since August 25. This substantial distribution suggests that larger investors are taking profits after the recent rally.

Over the same period, smaller and mid-sized wallets holding between 100,000 and 10 million PEPE accumulated a combined 5.06 billion tokens.

However, buying from these smaller investors represents only a fraction of the amount sold by whales. The imbalance could limit PEPE’s recovery and maintain downward pressure in the short term.

PEPE’s derivatives market presents a mixed outlook. The token’s long-to-short ratio stood at 1.05 on Thursday, close to its highest level in more than a month. A reading above 1 indicates that long positions outnumber shorts, suggesting that slightly more traders expect PEPE to rally.

However, funding-rate data points to a more cautious market. PEPE’s open-interest-weighted funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and fell to -0.0067% on Thursday.

A negative funding rate means short-position holders are paying traders with long positions. This typically reflects stronger bearish positioning and contradicts the optimism shown by the long-to-short ratio.

PEPE rejected at 200-day EMA resistance

PEPE traded around $0.00000348 on Thursday after facing rejection at its 200-day exponential moving average near $0.00000364 during the previous session.

The failed breakout highlights the 200-day EMA as an important barrier that bulls must overcome to regain control.

Momentum indicators also show that buying pressure is weakening. The Relative Strength Index is moving lower toward the neutral level of 50, suggesting the earlier bullish momentum is fading.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator produced a bearish crossover last week, which remains in place and reinforces the risk of further losses.

PEPE’s 50-day and 100-day EMAs provide an initial support zone near $0.00000320. The next important horizontal support sits around $0.00000313.

A daily close below this area could confirm a deeper correction and expose PEPE to its next major support near $0.00000230. Such a move would represent a decline of approximately 34% from its current price.

Conversely, PEPE must close above the 200-day EMA at $0.00000364 to weaken the bearish outlook. A successful breakout could open the door to a recovery toward the next daily resistance at approximately $0.00000442.

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Key takeaways

• XRP has dipped more than 2% over the past few days. 
• On-chain data shows sell-side dominance in XRP’s market. 
• XRP’s long-to-short ratio of 0.83 and negative funding rate reflect bearish positioning.
• XRP is approaching critical support at its 200-day EMA near $1.354.

Ripple (XRP) remains under pressure on Thursday after falling more than 2% this week. The cryptocurrency is approaching an important support zone that could determine its next directional moves. However, a combination of sell-side activity, cautious on-chain signals, and mixed derivatives positioning suggests that its near-term upside may remain limited.

XRP on-chain data tilts bearish

CryptoQuant’s market summary indicates a cautious outlook for both altcoins. XRP’s futures market is showing signs of overheating and sell-side dominance, while retail traders account for some of the current activity. Similar overheating conditions are emerging in the spot market, although several other indicators remain neutral.

Together, these signals point to cautious and moderately bearish sentiment among XRP traders.

Derivatives positioning shows conflicting sentiment between XRP and Stellar traders. XRP’s long-to-short ratio fell to 0.83 on Tuesday, approaching its lowest level in a month. 

A reading below 1 means short positions outnumber long positions, indicating that more traders expect XRP’s price to decline.

The XRP funding rate also turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0012% on Thursday. Negative funding means traders holding short positions are paying those with long positions, reinforcing the bearish tone surrounding the token.

XRP approaches the critical 200-day EMA

XRP traded around $1.392 on Thursday after declining more than 2% this week. Despite the pullback, the token remains above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. These indicators are clustered between approximately $1.244 and $1.354, maintaining XRP’s constructive underlying structure while they continue to hold.

The Relative Strength Index sits in the mid-50s, indicating that bullish momentum has moderated without completely disappearing. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence line remains below zero, signaling weakening upside momentum.

XRP’s first major support is the 200-day EMA near $1.354. A break below this level could expose the horizontal support at $1.300, followed by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. The next significant downside target would sit around $1.000.

On the upside, XRP faces major resistance near $1.900. A daily close above this level would be required to restore stronger bullish momentum and support a more substantial price recovery.

Until that happens, weakening derivatives demand and fading momentum could keep XRP under pressure near its moving-average support zone.

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Key takeaways

• Pi Network is trading above $0.098 after rebounding from the 50-day EMA near $0.094.
• PI has gained more than 3% this week after advancing 5.2% during the previous week.
• The Pi Core Team is prioritizing developer tools and documentation to encourage more applications within the ecosystem.

Pi Network extended its recovery on Wednesday, trading above $0.098 after finding support near its 50-day exponential moving average earlier this week.

PI has gained more than 3% since the start of the week, building on a 5.2% advance during the previous seven-day period.

The rebound coincides with a renewed push from the Pi Core Team to strengthen the network’s developer ecosystem. The team argues that better development tools can encourage the creation of more products and services, expanding PI’s practical utility.

Technical indicators also show improving momentum. However, the token remains below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to limit the broader recovery.

Pi Core team prioritizes developer ecosystem

The Pi Core Team said on X that supporting developers is essential to expanding utility at the application level.

Developers create the products, services, and digital experiences through which members of the Pi community can use the network. Improving the development environment could therefore help convert Pi’s underlying technology and ecosystem resources into accessible applications.

The latest comments follow the introduction of new developer capabilities on September 4.

Pi Network also released documentation offering developers clearer guidance on how to build applications for the ecosystem.

Together, the updates indicate that the network is placing greater emphasis on application development as a path toward wider utility.

The long-term impact will depend on whether these resources attract developers and lead to applications with sustained user activity. Developer tools alone do not guarantee adoption, but they can lower the barriers to building and deploying new products.

PI extends two-week recovery

PI traded near $0.098 on Wednesday after buyers defended the 50-day EMA around $0.094. The moving average acted as dynamic support, allowing the token to preserve its short-term recovery. Remaining above this level could encourage buyers to challenge the next significant resistance area.

PI’s consecutive weekly gains also suggest that selling pressure is easing. Still, the price remains below the 100-day EMA at $0.106 and the 200-day EMA at $0.143.

These higher-timeframe indicators show that the token has not yet completed a broader bullish reversal.

A sustained recovery will require PI to reclaim both moving averages and convert them into support.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 63, placing it above the neutral midpoint of 50. This indicates that buying momentum has strengthened without reaching the conventional overbought threshold of 70. The reading gives PI some room to extend its recovery before momentum becomes excessively stretched.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is also mildly positive, reinforcing the improvement in short-term momentum.

However, both signals remain constrained by the resistance created by the 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The indicators favor further gains, but price action must confirm the bullish outlook with a breakout above these barriers.

The 100-day EMA near $0.106 represents PI’s first major upside target. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the recovery and bring the horizontal resistance at $0.118 into focus.

If buyers overcome $0.118, the next significant target would be the 200-day EMA near $0.143. Reclaiming that moving average would provide stronger evidence that PI’s longer-term trend is improving.

From the current price near $0.098, reaching $0.106 would require a gain of approximately 8%. An advance toward $0.118 would represent roughly 20% upside.

The token will likely require increased trading volume to overcome these resistance levels and sustain the breakout.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $0.094 is the first important support level. A break below this indicator could weaken the short-term recovery and send PI toward the former downtrend interaction area near $0.086.

If buyers fail to defend that region, the risk of a deeper bearish move would increase. The next major horizontal support sits around $0.075.

As long as PI holds above $0.094, the immediate outlook remains constructive. A breakout above $0.106 would favor an extension toward $0.118, while losing the 50-day EMA could place the recent recovery under pressure.

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Key takeaways

• Chainlink has gained 51% over seven days amid improving regulatory sentiment and project-specific developments.
• Chainlink’s total value secured rose from $43 billion in June to nearly $57 billion by the end of August—an increase of approximately 33%.
• A partnership with Bottomline could connect payment infrastructure serving more than 600 banks to multiple blockchains.

Chainlink has gained approximately 51% over the past seven days, outperforming much of the cryptocurrency market following new regulatory proposals from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The rally has also been supported by improving Chainlink network fundamentals and several significant adoption announcements.

Chainlink’s total value secured increased from approximately $43 billion in June to nearly $57 billion by the end of August. This represents growth of about 33%, indicating that more value is relying on Chainlink-powered services across decentralized finance and other blockchain applications.

LINK has also broken above an important technical resistance, creating a potential path toward $18 if buyers maintain control.

Chainlink’s total value secured approaches $57 billion

Chainlink’s total value secured has recovered steadily since June, climbing by approximately $14 billion in two months.

TVS measures the value of assets supported or protected by Chainlink services. Rising TVS can indicate growing demand for the network’s oracle infrastructure, cross-chain communication tools, and asset-verification products.

The recovery strengthens the fundamental case for LINK by showing that the network’s usage is improving alongside its token price.

However, TVS does not represent revenue or assets directly owned by Chainlink. It measures the value dependent on its infrastructure and should therefore be viewed as an adoption indicator.

Continued growth could support LINK’s longer-term outlook, particularly if Chainlink expands further into institutional payments and tokenized assets.

Chainlink recently announced a partnership with Bottomline, a payment technology company that facilitates SWIFT transfers for more than 600 banks worldwide.

The collaboration is intended to connect Bottomline’s existing offchain payment infrastructure with multiple blockchain networks.

This could allow banks and financial institutions already using Bottomline to interact with digital assets without replacing their existing payment systems.

Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol could provide the communication layer connecting traditional financial infrastructure with public and private blockchains.

If successful, the partnership could increase Chainlink’s relevance as banks explore stablecoins, tokenized deposits and blockchain-based settlement.

The Wyoming Stable Token Commission has also selected Chainlink to provide reserve verification for the state’s Frontier Stable Token.

Chainlink Proof of Reserve will serve as Wyoming’s exclusive onchain asset-verification system for the token. The technology will publish verifiable information showing whether the stablecoin is fully supported by its underlying reserve assets.

Proof-of-reserve infrastructure is particularly important for stablecoins because users need confidence that the number of tokens in circulation does not exceed the assets backing them.

The Wyoming selection gives Chainlink a government-level use case and could strengthen its position in the U.S. stablecoin market.

If other states or jurisdictions adopt similar systems, demand for Chainlink’s verification and interoperability products could increase.

LINK breaks above the 200-day EMA

LINK moved above its 200-day exponential moving average in late August, alongside a broader recovery among altcoins.

A sustained move above the 200-day EMA is often interpreted as evidence of improving long-term momentum. It indicates that the current price has risen above its average level over a significant period.

The breakout suggests that LINK’s previous bearish cycle may be ending. However, confirmation will depend on the token holding above the moving average during future pullbacks.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 64, showing strong bullish momentum without yet entering the conventionally overbought region above 70.

This gives LINK some room to extend its rally, although the rapid 51% weekly gain increases the possibility of short-term profit-taking.

LINK’s move above the $12 resistance level confirmed a breakout from a bullish flag pattern that had been forming since the August 21 rally.

A bullish flag develops when an asset consolidates after a strong upward move. Early buyers take profits during this phase, while new buyers gradually enter in anticipation of the next advance.

A breakout above the flag’s resistance signals that buyers may have regained control.

Based on the size of LINK’s preceding rally, the technical pattern projects a target of approximately $18. This would represent around 44% upside from the $12 breakout area.

LINK must hold above $12 to preserve the bullish setup. A decisive drop back below the breakout level could indicate that the move was false and delay the projected rally.

Chainlink’s strengthening fundamentals provide additional support for the technical outlook. Rising TVS, institutional payment partnerships, and government stablecoin adoption could help sustain demand beyond short-term speculation.

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