Schlagwort: blockchain analysis

• Polygon erased all of its 2023 gains
• The technical picture is bearish
• Only a move above parity will change the bearish bias

What a ride it has been for Polygon investors. Since its inception, the cryptocurrency rallied strongly, only for the move to be faded.

Twice, it had tried at the $2.8 area, failing both times. The market has put a double top pattern there, as it was unable to break above the horizontal resistance area.

Following the double top, it all went wrong for Polygon investors. Another bearish pattern formed, a descending triangle, with a scary measured move for those that bought at the top.

The measured move sent the market all the way down to $ 0.4 before bouncing in the last part of 2022.

When cryptocurrencies rallied at the start of 2023 on the back of Bitcoin’s move higher, optimism emerged again. Polygon rallied, too, trading above $1.4, but those gains are long gone. However, Bitcoin still holds on most of its 2023 gains, which spells trouble for Polygon investors.

Polygon chart by TradingView

Polygon remains bearish while below $1

For the bearish bias to end, the market needs two things. First, it must break the bearish trendline on the chart above. Ideally, it should also break the series of lower highs.

Second, it must trade above parity with the dollar. That is a pivotal level; holding there builds energy for further advances.

The post Polygon price forecast: Will it hold above $0.5? appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Dogecoin remains bearish while below $0.08
• A move above would invalidate the lower highs series
• A weak US dollar might matter more for Dogecoin than anything else

Not much is happening in the cryptocurrency market lately. Traders used to high volatility levels were disappointed lately.

For example, Dogecoin has been in consolidation for more than twelve months. Sure enough, the market bounced several times but only found resistance at the $0.1 level.

Having said that, it does not mean that Dogecoin cannot bounce from these depressed levels. As long as the market holds above $0.06, bulls will try to overcome $0.1. But the critical level to overcome first is $0.08.

By breaking and holding above, the market would invalidate the lower highs series. Therefore, the bias would then shift from bearish to bullish.

Dogecoin chart by TradingView

What can drive Dogecoin higher?

Like it or not, cryptocurrency traders must recognize that volatility is not what it used to be in the crypto market. Sure enough, rallies or selloffs have a larger magnitude than in the traditional currency market, but nevertheless, the amplitude of market movements is not the same anymore.

It can only mean that the cryptocurrency market aligns with the traditional currency market in terms of what drives volatility. Hence,  it is only logical to look at the US dollar and where it might go next.

Recent labor market data suggests that the August NFP report will disappoint. If that is the case, expect the US dollar to continue its downward trend that started yesterday after the disappointing JOLTS report.

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• Grayscale won a landmark ruling against US regulators
• The SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale’s application to transform the Bitcoin trust into an ETF
• Bitcoin’s price jumped, but it is more relevant what happens to the US dollar next

Grayscale is a leading crypto asset manager. It enables traders and investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency market through a Bitcoin trust.

The trust now has over $17 billion in assets under management, and the eligible shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are quoted on OTCQX under the symbol GBTC.

Yesterday, Grayscale won a landmark decision from a US court that ruled against the Securities and Exchange Commission over Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF.

Grayscale wants to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), but the SEC did not allow it. However, the federal court ruled that the SEC was wrong.

As a result, Bitcoin price jumped above $27k. While Grayscale’s news is positive for the industry, for Bitcoin, it is more relevant what happens to the US dollar.

Bitcoin chart by TradingView

Bitcoin bounces from support as the US dollar weakens

At the same time, when the US federal court ruled in favor of Grayscale, news came out that the labor market in the United States softened. Major stock market indices advanced as the dollar lost ground.

This is a trend to watch in the future.

Because the Fed is convinced that inflation has peaked, the focus sits now on the labor market. If jobs data this week confirms the soft path, expect Bitcoin to gain some more.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin bounced from horizontal support given by the neckline of an inversed head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is often retested, and now the focus shifts (again) to the measured move that points to $35k and beyond.

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• Ripple erased all the gains following the July federal court ruling
• Dynamic resistance held
• All eyes are now on the major support area seen at $0.3

Crypto investors cheered Ripple’s price reaction in July following news that the XRP token is not a security when sold to the general public. The price spiked from the $0.4 area to close to $1, and finding a single bearish trader following the news was impossible.

But markets often mislead traders.

As it turns out, the SEC (Security and Exchange Commission) wants to appeal the federal court ruling in Ripple’s case. Investors did not wait and sold, sending the XRP/USD rate back to where it was before the July news.

The round trip was completed recently when Ripple fully retraced the move following July’s announcement.

One can build both a bullish and a bearish case for Ripple by looking at the technical picture. But the main thing is that Ripple is back in the range, unable so far to break above or below major resistance and support areas.

Ripple chart by TradingView

The bullish case for Ripple

In 2021, Ripple’s price surged to over $1.8 as investors hurried to get exposure to the cryptocurrency market during the COVID-19 pandemic. But sellers quickly emerged, and a bearish triangle formed.

The triangular consolidation held until 2022. In the first half of that year, Ripple’s price broke lower. It did so by breaking support given by the lower edge of the triangle, and since then, it has not looked back.

Until this July.

Previous support turned out to be dynamic resistance. It is this resistance that kept bulls at bay following the July news.

However, despite the rejection, one can build a bullish case for Ripple. The $0.3 area acted as a major support in 2022, and the market has built a series of higher highs and higher lows ever since. As long as it holds above support, Ripple’s price might recover and attempt to break and hold above dynamic resistance again.

The bearish case for Ripple

On the other hand, the recent selloff alone has scared many traders. Optimism vaned, and with it, capital fled, too. If Ripple’s price drops below $0.4, the momentum then builds for further downside toward the major support area seen at $0.3. A break there, and it is game over for bulls that were so sure that Ripple’s time has come.

The post Ripple back under pressure, bears eye major support area appeared first on CoinJournal.