Kategorie: Crypto Markets

• ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart say the odds of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval this year are 75%.
• The Bloomberg ETF analysts say the SEC has “very little wiggle room” and that denying spot ETFs further would be “politically untenable”.
• The SEC has suffered both legal and PR loss after Grayscale’s win.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has “very little wiggle room” now and will soon have to approve the first Bitcoin spot ETF for the US market.

That’s Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart’s take after yesterday’s court decision that granted a review petition filed by Grayscale Investments. The odds are up from 65%.

Experts say odds of spot ETF have increased

Balchunas shared his and Seyffart’s prediction of when the SEC could approve the ETF, noting a 75% probability it happens in 2023 and 95% by the end of next year. Noting that the SEC’s loss in the Grayscale lawsuit had increased odds of a spot ETF finally being approved, the senior ETF analyst said via a post on X:

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w „very little wiggle room“ via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

According to the ETF experts, the SEC has suffered a double loss that leaves further denials “politically untenable.” Other than the legal blow that comes with Grayscale’s win, the US regulator is looking at a PR loss that has a far greater impact in terms of setting narratives and changing minds. Mainstream’s coverage of the story and what it implies doesn’t help the agency, Balchunas noted.

“We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable,” Balchunas wrote.

While the SEC could delay upcoming ETF decisions – or even deny them – the analysts say the regulator will find it difficult to deny the one by crypto asset management firm Hashdex.

Even if SEC wants to deny all of these applications. We think they would have a very hard time finding a way to deny @hashdex’s unique and novel approach for spot Bitcoin exposure in $DEFI. Worries about spot manipulation & settlement should be assuaged. Increasing ’24 odds pic.twitter.com/b1HHbbHeEq

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 30, 2023

The SEC recently delayed a decision on the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF proposal, while soft deadlines for several filings including for BlackRock, Fidelity and others are coming up.

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• Bitcoin Cash price is down 5% on the day after rising 21% on Tuesday as Grayscale news helped push BCH to above $228. 
• Sellers could push the altcoin’s price lower amid broader market’s profit taking deals.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was one of the biggest gainers Tuesday after crypto surged on news of Grayscale’s court victory against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bitcoin Cash paring gains after huge spike

BCH rose to $228, rising a notable 21% on the day as the market repriced news of a Bitcoin ETF approval. The altcoin ended the day 18% up. Santiment shared the chart below showing BCH led the crypto spike.

📊 After the news of #Grayscale’s victory over the #SEC quickly lifted #crypto markets, the biggest notable beneficiary actually has turned out to be #BitcoinCash, due to its increased exposure. This phenomenon was similar to what we saw in mid-June when the #ETF news was first pic.twitter.com/HzEEEqZqIt

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) August 29, 2023

Bitcoin Cash is however trading 5% down on the day as can be seen in the chart below. Sellers appear to be taking control after rejection at the critical horizontal level that also marked the point of further downward moves in mid-August.

The daily chart shows price is above the 100 SMA, which provides support near $198. The daily RSI is also still above the 50 mark. However, it’s beginning to slant to suggest possible selling pressure. Key price levels to watch are $183 and $252.

At the time, BlackRock-fueled positivity sent Bitcoin to above $31k and Bitcoin Cash rose to above $329 – partly driven by the unveiling of Fidelity-backed crypto exchange EDX Markets. BCH was one of four crypto assets EDX Markets supported.

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• Bitcoin price rose sharply on Tuesday, reaching highs of $28k after news of Grayscale’s win against the SEC. 
• Santiment has shared data showing whales and sharks scooped over $388 million in BTC ahead of the news.

Bitcoin (BTC) whales have accumulated more and more over the past few months, with price dips providing a good buying opportunity. These large BTC holders appear to have rode the impending court decision in the Grayscale vs. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit to add to their holdings.

Bitcoin whales and sharks buy $388 million in BTC

Bitcoin price has retreated to around $27,370 at the time of writing on Wednesday, August 30, giving up some of the gains seen on Tuesday when the benchmark cryptocurrency spiked more than 6%.

But even then, market intelligence platform Santiment has highlighted a key on-chain metric involving Bitcoin whales and sharks. Per data from the platform, large holders purchased a total of over $388 million in BTC just prior to the news that Grayscale had scored another landmark win against the SEC.

As crypto reacted with upward action and BTC shot to above $28k, whales and sharks were “handsomely rewarded with a +6% price jump.”

“Whales & sharks may have known a thing or two about the outcome of the #Grayscale and #SEC lawsuit, with 10-10K $BTC wallets accumulating a collective $388.3M in $BTC the day leading up to the news. They were handsomely rewarded with a +6% price jump,” Santiment posted on X.

Was there a hint of manipulation here? Earlier, Santiment had retweeted (re-X’d) analyst Ali Martinez’ highlight of the fact that 30k BTC was sent to exchanges just before the Grayscale victory news.

📈 The exchange supply of #Bitcoin was boosted significantly just prior to #Grayscale’s win over the #SEC. It looks quite clear that the powers that be knew of the inevitable boost in #crypto market capitalization as a result of this outcome. https://t.co/ARsnt7vsRM https://t.co/jFFPwk1CHD

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) August 29, 2023

Bitcoin ETF – chances of approval up

In a decision delivered by the DC Circuit court, SEC’s order denying Grayscale’s proposal to convert its GBTC to a Bitcoin ETF was vacated. The court granted the company’s review petition and criticised the SEC for its capriciousness in the treatment of Bitcoin futures and spot ETFs.

Experts have since opined that the court’s ruling raises chances of the US market getting its first spot Bitcoin ETF. One of these is an application by asset management behemoth BlackRock.

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• The EOS received a whitelist approval from the Japan Virtual and Crypto Asset Exchange Association (JVCEA).
• EOS will start trading on BitTrade in Japan in mid-September.
• Crypto-asset providers in Japan are monitored and regulated by the JVCEA and FSA under the Payment Services Act.

The EOS Network Foundation has announced that the Japan Virtual and Crypto Asset Exchange Association (JVCEA) has approved the EOS cryptocurrency for inclusion on its whitelist. The accomplishment opens the door for EOS to be traded in Japan on authorized cryptocurrency exchanges against the yen.

By giving the EOS Network more exposure and accessibility to a wider spectrum of Japanese end users, developers, and investors, the JVCEA’s approval represents a significant advancement for EOS. Midway through September, EOS will start trading on BitTrade, a renowned cryptocurrency exchange authorized and governed by the nation’s Financial Services Agency (FSA).

Japan’s strict crypto regulations

Japan’s strict regulatory regime controlling digital tokens is well known for its thoroughness and sturdiness. The Payment Services Act mandates a detailed pre-screening procedure for new digital assets, and the JVCEA and FSA closely monitor and regulate crypto-asset providers. The EOS Network’s adherence to these strict rules demonstrates its dedication to openness, security, and innovation.

With the successful extension of Upland, built on EOS and one of the largest metaverses in the business, to encompass Tokyo, the network is already experiencing a rise in popularity and usage in the Japanese market.

EOS has a solid reputation among blockchain fans and developers thanks to its five years of uninterrupted mainnet operation and its top-tier Ethereum Virtual Machine, which offers unrivalled performance.

This endorsement shows that the EOS Network’s dependability and performance have been acknowledged, opening the door for further development and acceptance in East Asian markets. As one of the top blockchains globally, EOS is well-positioned for ongoing progress in the area thanks to strong collaborations and a successful track record.

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