Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Stellar is up 7% in the last 24 hours, making it the best performer among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
• On-chain data, derivatives metrics, and momentum indicators collectively support a positive outlook

Stellar (XLM) is showing strong performance above critical resistance levels on Tuesday, as XLM found support around its respective resistance the previous day. 

With growing on-chain activity, positive derivatives data, and bullish momentum indicators, XLM is poised for potential upside.

Bullish sentiment backed by on-chain and derivatives data

CryptoQuant’s latest summary suggests a neutral to bullish outlook for XLM, highlighting large whale orders and favorable conditions in spot markets.

XLM is showing large whale orders with mostly neutral market metrics, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

On the derivatives front, XLM is displaying positive funding rates. XLM’s OI-Weighted Funding Rate flipped positive on Monday, reaching 0.0032% on Tuesday. This positive rate suggests a bullish market sentiment, with longs paying shorts.

XLM is showing promising signs of continued strength as it maintains momentum toward a potential breakout.

XLM technical outlook: Rebounds from key support

The XLM/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Stellar is trading at $0.1815 at press time. The coin found support around the 50-day EMA at $0.165 the previous day. 

XLM is holding a constructive near-term bias as it stabilizes above the 50-day EMA and the broken descending trendline that now offers secondary support near $0.153. 

The current momentum indicators suggest that XLM could rally higher in the near term. The RSI on the 4-hour chart reads 71, just below the overbought territory. The MACD line is tracking above zero, suggesting buyers retain control while price stays capped above the 100-day EMA at $0.179.

If the rally persists, immediate resistance would be found at the 4-hour TLQ of $0.194, followed by a more substantive barrier at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the broader downswing at $0.201.

A daily candle close above these levels would expose the 200-day EMA at $0.215, which defines a key medium-term hurdle.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day EMA of $0.179, with another major demand zone at the day’s open near $0.173. 

An extended bearish performance would expose the 50-day EMA at $0.165, with deeper protection at the former descending resistance line-turned-support around $0.153.

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Key takeaways 

• Pi Network’s PI token holds steady at $0.1730, up 4.5% from the previous day. 
• The Pi Core Team’s upgrade to enable smart contracts, with a deadline set for April 27, is a potential catalyst. 

Pi Network’s PI token has managed to hold steady around $0.1770 as of Friday, adding a 4.5% gain from the previous day. 

The Pi Core Team (PCT) is driving momentum with the impending upgrade to the mainnet, which will enable smart contract functionality—expected to be a key catalyst for price movement.

PI rallies ahead of the Protocol 22 upgrade

PI is up 4.5% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. The rally comes after the Pi Core Team announced that April 27 is the final deadline for all mainnet nodes to complete necessary steps for remaining connected to the network, as part of the Stellar Protocol version 22 upgrade. 

While this upgrade will cause a brief 15-minute downtime during internal data transfer, it lays the groundwork for future improvements. Additionally, the full upgrade to version 26 is slated for June 22, ahead of Pi2Day on June 28.

Will PI rally higher in the near term?

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient, trading above the $0.1770 level. However, Pi Network remains in a bearish posture, with the token still trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

The immediate resistance level is marked at $0.1785, corresponding to the 50-day EMA, followed by stronger resistance at $0.1865 (100-day EMA) and $0.2334 (200-day EMA).

However, momentum indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 is above the neutral 50 line, and is heading into the overbought region.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing above its signal line indicates growing bullish momentum. 

On the downside, key support is found at $0.1556, near the February 23 low, with further weakness potentially exposing $0.1310 if the market slips below this level.

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Key takeaways

• PancakeSwap is holding above the key support level at $1.55, hinting at an upside move ahead.
• Rising open interest alongside positive funding rates signals increasing participation.

PancakeSwap (CAKE) is trading in the green above $1.60 on Thursday after finding support around this key level the previous day. Positive derivatives data, along with constructive price action, suggest that CAKE could continue its upward trajectory in the coming days.

Bullish derivatives data pushes CAKE higher

CoinGlass data reveals a sharp increase in the futures’ Open Interest (OI) for PancakeSwap, which rose to $32.48 million on Tuesday and climbed further to $32.28 million on Thursday, the highest level since March 17. 

The steady increase in OI signals that new money is entering the market, which could sustain CAKE’s ongoing price rally.

Additionally, the funding rates are showing a positive shift, further supporting the bullish sentiment. CoinGlass’ OI-Weighted Funding Rate for CAKE turned positive on Wednesday and reads 0.0056% on Thursday. 

This indicates that long positions are paying short positions, further suggesting that the market sentiment remains bullish.

PancakeSwap price forecast: momentum indicators suggest further rally

The CAKE/USDT 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient, as Pancakeswap is trading at $1.60 at press time.

The coin retains a constructive bias, supported by its positioning above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.46 and $1.57, respectively. 

CAKE’s current price action indicates that underlying demand continues to drive the recent advance, despite CAKE remaining below the 200-day EMA at $1.81, which marks the upper boundary of the broader corrective structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 64, suggesting that while the price has firm upside momentum, it could be vulnerable to consolidation as it nears overbought territory. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, reinforcing the bullish short-term outlook.

On the upside, initial resistance is found at the 50% retracement of the latest swing at $1.67, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1.78 and a nearby horizontal resistance at $1.79. The 200-day EMA at $1.81 represents a more substantial barrier.

However, if the bears regain control, immediate support lies at the 100-day EMA at $1.57, followed by the 38.2% retracement at $1.55. 

A deeper pullback could test the 50-day EMA at $1.46 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $1.40, with stronger structural support emerging near $1.28.

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Key takeaways

• PEPE is up 9% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the best performers among the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
• The rally comes amid renewed interest from whales and retail investors. 

Pepe (PEPE) has extended its gains by roughly 9% at press time on Thursday, as the broader cryptocurrency market recovers from a risk-off sentiment following truce negotiations between the US and Iran.

With large wallet investors, commonly referred to as whales, reaccumulating PEPE, and retail interest steadily rising, the frog-themed meme coin is gaining traction. 

PEPE rallies as the broader market recovers

The cryptocurrency market’s recovery is sparking a shift toward risk-on sentiment, with traders becoming more optimistic. 

This has led to renewed attention on meme coins, including Pepe. Data from CoinGlass shows that the PEPE futures Open Interest (OI) has surged by 20% in the past 24 hours, reaching $228.67 million. 

This increase suggests that more traders are betting on PEPE’s price to increase in the near term.

Furthermore, large wallet investors holding over 100 million PEPE tokens are steadily rebuilding their positions, signaling a long-term bullish outlook. 

Santiment data reveals that investors with holdings ranging from 100 million to 1 billion PEPE tokens now own 10.64 trillion PEPE, up from 10.59 trillion on February 15. Investors with over 1 billion PEPE tokens now control 3.64 trillion PEPE, up from 3.60 trillion in late February, reinforcing the interest of whales in the asset.

Technical outlook: Can Pepe sustain its rally?

The PEPE/USD 4-hour chart continues to be bearish and inefficient despite rallying above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the second consecutive day.

PEPE is now trading at $0.000003877, testing the 100-day EMA at $0.00000411, with no clear directional bias. 

A decisive daily candle close above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially reaching the 200-day EMA at $0.00000550.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, suggesting moderate momentum with potential room for further upside before entering overbought territory. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows steady upward movement, supporting the bullish trend.

However, if the bears regain control, PEPE’s key support lies at the 50-day EMA, near the broken trendline, at $0.00000364.

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Key takeaways

• DOGE is down 0.5% and continues to trade below the $0.10 psychological level.
• The coin has been consolidating and could rally higher in the near term. 

Dogecoin (DOGE), the largest meme coin with a market capitalization of $14.27 billion, represents over 0.50% of the $2.49 trillion cryptocurrency market as of Wednesday. 

Dogecoin underperforms despite a disinflationary model

Dogecoin defends its inflationary model, stating that inflation will decrease gradually to 3.1% from 3.6% as the total DOGE supply increases. 

The assumption driving this claim is that demand for the meme coin will remain steady, supported by its robust community that uses DOGE for tipping, institutions launching DOGE-focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and its growing use in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) services.

While the narrative suggests a stable demand, it may not guarantee sustained positive pressure on DOGE’s price.

While Dogecoin’s fixed issuance model reduces inflation relative to the increasing supply, it does not necessarily reduce the overall supply, as deflation would. The continued minting of 5 billion DOGE per year could become a persistent downside risk, especially during periods of low demand.

Dogecoin’s strategy emphasizes practical usage as a currency rather than hoarding, and it incentivizes miners to secure the network. However, the ongoing supply pressure may limit the effectiveness of this disinflationary model in the long term.

In addition to this, institutional demand for DOgecoin remains muted. Since the launch of DOGE spot ETFs on November 24, there have been just 15 days of inflows, totaling a net asset value of $10.80 million. With 79 days showing no flows and two days with net outflows, institutional interest in DOGE remains limited.

The Dogecoin Treasury currently holds just over 780.54 million DOGE, which represents 0.51% of the total DOGE supply. Gaining further institutional support is key for Dogecoin to progress into the global financial system, providing the demand necessary to support the disinflationary model.

DOGE could rally above $0.10 if the bulls regain control

The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient despite the broader crypto market rallying recently. At press time, DOGE is trading at $0.094 after rejecting at the $0.098 swing high earlier this week.

The RSI of 55 is above the neutral 50, indicating a fading bearish momentum. The MACD lines are also above the zero region, adding further bullish narrative to the pair.

If the bulls regain control, DOGE could surpass the $0.098 swing high and hit the $0.10 psychological level for the first time since March 16.

However, if the bearish correction persists, DOGE could retest the Sunday low of $0.09012 in the near term.

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