Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• BTC remains around the $77k level after rejecting the 200-day moving average.
• The bearish performance comes as rising inflation and Treasury yields weigh on risk sentiment.

Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 earlier on Wednesday after failing to break above the 200-day moving average near $82,000, as rising inflation and tighter macroeconomic conditions weighed heavily on risk assets.

The decline comes after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data showed Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year. At the same time, rising oil prices and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield have reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by December.

Bears continue to dominate the market

According to a report from K33 Research, Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200-day moving average mirrors patterns seen during previous market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022, when rapid rebounds were followed by sharp deleveraging-driven sell-offs.

K33 noted that those historical recoveries rebuilt trader confidence and leverage quickly, leaving markets vulnerable to aggressive corrections once momentum faded.

“A core ingredient in the ensuing legs lower was the unwind of positions built up during the rally itself,” the report stated.

However, analysts emphasized that the current cycle differs in several important ways. Bitcoin took significantly longer to revisit the 200-day moving average after breaking below it, spending 189 days before retesting the level in May. That compares with 96 days in 2014, 132 days in 2018, and 85 days in 2022.

Derivatives data suggest traders remain cautious rather than excessively bullish. Funding rates have stayed negative for 81 consecutive days, while options market skews are hovering near yearly highs, indicating persistent defensive positioning.

Institutional flows have presented a mixed picture. Global Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded their largest weekly outflow of the year last week, totaling 24,303 BTC. The figure marked the ninth-largest five-day outflow since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

K33 noted that selling pressure intensified as Bitcoin approached the average ETF cost basis, a level that has historically triggered elevated outflows.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC consolidates around $77,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering near $77200, slightly above the 50-day EMA at $76,743 and the 100-day EMA at $76,867. 

However, the broader trend remains constrained by the 200-day EMA at $81,845, which continues to act as a strong overhead resistance level.

This positioning suggests that while short-term buyers are attempting to stabilize price action, longer-term trend signals have yet to confirm a bullish reversal.

Technical indicators point to declining bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the mid-40s, indicating weakening buying pressure without yet reaching oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in negative territory, reinforcing the view that recent upward moves have lost strength following the prior rally attempt.

If the rally resumes, immediate resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally around $78,962. A breakout above this zone would be needed to challenge higher levels.

However, if the selloff continues, initial support is anchored by the 50-day EMA at $76,743. A break below this level could expose Bitcoin to further losses toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74,487.

Deeper support lies near the reclaimed trendline around $70,785, with the 23.6% retracement level at $68,950 acting as a final key cushion for the current structure.

The post Bitcoin stays around $77K after 200-day moving average rejection appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• PI has reclaimed the $0.1500 level after dropping below this critical area on Tuesday.
• The positive performance comes following the mainnet upgrade. 

Pi Network has reversed its downward trend on Wednesday, climbing above the $0.1500 level following a major infrastructure upgrade to its mainnet nodes. 

At press time, PI traded around $0.1518, extending recent losses while technical indicators hinted at the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Pi Core team completes major mainnet upgrade

The Pi Core Team announced that major mainnet nodes have successfully upgraded to Stellar protocol version 23, reflecting the project’s reliance on the Stellar blockchain infrastructure.

The update also included several backend improvements, such as migrating the operating system from Ubuntu 20 to Ubuntu 24 and upgrading the database engine from PostgreSQL 12 to PostgreSQL 16.

The latest upgrade is aimed at improving network performance, security, and long-term scalability as the ecosystem continues to evolve.

PI price outlook: Technical indicators suggest a possible recovery

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is still bearish and efficient as PI has underperformed over the past few days.

The bearish performance comes despite the infrastructure progress. The token is currently trading below both the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.1605 and the 200-period EMA around $0.1709, maintaining a broader bearish outlook.

However, momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 29, signaling oversold conditions while also forming a positive divergence as price approaches Tuesday’s low of $0.1463.

This type of divergence often points to a potential reversal or short-term bounce. If buying momentum increases, PI could attempt to retest a descending trendline resistance near $0.1519.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains flat below the zero line, indicating fading bearish momentum but not yet confirming a bullish recovery.

A successful breakout above the $0.1519 resistance level could open the door for a stronger recovery toward the 50-EMA at $0.1605, followed by the 200-EMA near $0.1709.

On the downside, the recent low at $0.1463 remains a critical support zone. A daily close below that level could invalidate rebound expectations and potentially trigger additional downside pressure for Pi Network.

The post Pi Network tops $0.1500 following mainnet upgrade appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• PI is up by nearly 2% as bulls attempt to push the price above $0.1500.
• The ongoing token unlock could still put further pressure on the coin. 

Bulls look to push PI above $0.1500

Pi Network (PI) has been one of the worst performers among the leading cryptocurrencies in recent days. 

The coin is down 12% in the last seven days, underperforming compared to the broader crypto market. However, it has slightly bounced back after adding 2% to its value since Monday.

PI is now trading at $0.1507 on Tuesday, thanks to the outflows from Centralized Exchanges (CEXs). 

Despite that, PI could continue to face selling pressure as the mainnet migration surpasses CEX withdrawals.

Data obtained from PiScan reveals that 2.55 million PI tokens left exchanges over the last 24 hours, a figure that typically signals a surge in buying activity. 

While the outflow to CEXs will reduce selling pressure on PI, it is still not enough to absorb the migration tokens. 

Migration statistics reveal that 4.36 million PI tokens were transferred from testnet to mainnet on Tuesday, enabling holders to deposit this unlocked supply on CEXs. 

This latest development comes after 7.65 million PI tokens were migrated on the previous day.

Will the $0.1500 support level hold?

The PI/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient despite PI adding 2% to its value in the last 24 hours. 

The short-term recovery might not hold as the selling pressure is currently outweighing the demand. 

Momentum indicators reinforce this pressure, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above oversold territory near 34. 

PI’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line on the 4-hour chart also remains slightly negative below the zero line, adding further confluence to the bearish narrative. 

If the sellers continue to dominate, PI could drop below the $0.1500 and test the support levels at $0.1440 and $0.1345 in the near term. 

However, if the bulls regain control and push the price above the $0.1605 resistance level, it could allow PI to extend its rally towards the 100-period EMA at roughly $0.1684.

The post Will the CEX outflows allow PI to recover above $0.1500? appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• CHZ is up 5% in the last 24 hours and is now approaching the $0.05 resistance level.
• The derivatives data indicate that the bulls are in control at the moment.

Chiliz outperforms the broader crypto market

Chiliz (CHZ) is one of the best performers among the top cryptocurrencies, as the coin is up by 5% in the last 24 hours. Thanks to its latest rally, CHZ is trading at $0.049 and could rally higher in the near term.

The momentum indicators remain constructive, indicating that CHZ could extend its rally over the next few hours and days. 

Data obtained from CoinGlass shows that the futures’ Open Interest (OI) at exchanges in Chiliz surges to $80 million on Tuesday, up from $58 million in the previous week.

This is the highest Chiliz’s OI has been since January. The rising OI indicates that new or additional bullish positions are opening in the market, suggesting a bullish outlook for CHZ. 

Furthermore, Chiliz’s funding rates flipped positive on Sunday and surged to 0.0043% on Tuesday. The funding rate turning positive means that the bulls are firmly in control of the market.

CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for CHZ read 1.01 on Tuesday, after sitting in the red territory for over a week. 

Chiliz price forecast: The $0.051 resistance level remains a key challenge

The CHZ/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as Chiliz has outperformed the broader cryptocurrency market.

The cryptocurrency market is currently trading above key support levels thanks to its recent rally. The momentum indicators also suggest that the buyers could push CHZ’s price higher in the near term. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58 shows that the bulls have regained control but still have more room for growth. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned positive, with the histogram marginally above zero, hinting at a steady rally.

If the bullish scenario continues, the buyers would face immediate resistance at the recent swing high of $0.051. 

A daily candle close above this level would allow the bulls to extend the rally towards the $0.057 resistance and then the January high at $0.064.

However, if the sellers regain control, immediate support would emerge around the $0.047 Inducement Liquidity (ILQ). 

Failure to defend this support level would expose the other major zones around the $0.043 and $0.041.

The post Chiliz targets new weekly highs as derivatives data flips bullish appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Dogecoin extends its correction on Monday as memecoins record huge losses.
• DOGE could drop below $0.10 if the bearish trend persists. 

Memecoins record huge losses

The cryptocurrency market opened the new weekly candle bearish, with Bitcoin (BTC) slipping below the $77,000 level on Monday and risk appetite deteriorating across digital assets.

Meme coins started the week on a weak footing as the broader cryptocurrency market continued to struggle. Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe all remain vulnerable to further downside after heavy selling pressure emerged following last week’s market correction.

DOGE is down by 5%, making it the worst performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. 

Dogecoin briefly rallied last week and retested the important weekly resistance zone near $0.119 on Thursday before sellers regained control.

The rejection triggered a fresh wave of downside pressure, with DOGE falling nearly 6% through Sunday and extending losses further on Monday as the token traded below the $0.106 level.

Technical outlook: DOGE risks a deeper correction below key EMAs

The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart is bearish as the leading memecoin has dropped below major support levels. 

If DOGE closes the daily candle below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.106, selling pressure could intensify toward the 50-day EMA around $0.103.

A decisive breakdown below that support area may expose the previous trendline breakout region near $0.090, which now acts as the next major downside target.

Momentum indicators continue to reinforce the bearish outlook for Dogecoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart currently sits near 41, slipping below the neutral 50 threshold and signaling that bearish momentum is beginning to strengthen.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator confirmed a bearish crossover on Saturday, a signal that remains active and continues to support downside risk in the near term.

Despite the bearish setup, Dogecoin could still attempt a short-term rebound if buyers successfully defend the 100-day EMA support near $0.106.

A sustained hold above that level may allow DOGE to recover toward the key weekly resistance zone around $0.119.

However, broader market sentiment, particularly Bitcoin’s direction, is likely to remain the dominant driver for meme coin price action in the near term.

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