Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• XRP continues to consolidate around the $1.10 mark.
• The bulls are holding the price above the $1.05 support level.

Ripple’s XRP is trading lower on Thursday, staying around $1.10 as the token attempted to reverse a downtrend that has persisted since mid-May. 

The downtrend comes as institutional demand for XRP-linked investment products continues to strengthen, even as retail traders remain cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on markets

Risk sentiment remains fragile as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate.

Recent developments have included renewed military exchanges between the two nations, with US President Donald Trump stating that Iran has been slow to agree to a peace deal. Following those remarks, the US military conducted additional strikes that it described as defensive actions.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) subsequently launched attacks targeting US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

The uncertainty has contributed to volatility across financial and cryptocurrency markets, limiting investor risk appetite.

Despite the uncertain macro environment, institutional investors continue to add exposure to XRP.

Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP spot ETFs attracted nearly $1.2 million in net inflows on Wednesday, following approximately $7.44 million in inflows on Tuesday.

According to CoinGlass data, XRP futures Open Interest (OI) stood at approximately $2.43 billion on Thursday.

A falling Open Interest environment typically signals reduced speculative activity and limited conviction among short-term market participants.

XRP price analysis: Recovery attempt faces major resistance

XRP is currently trading around $1.10, but the broader technical picture remains bearish.

The token continues to trade below several major trend indicators. Remaining below all three moving averages suggests that the longer-term downtrend remains intact.

Technical momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is easing, but not yet reversing.

The RSI is hovering near 44, indicating weak demand while remaining just above oversold territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in negative territory, signaling that bearish momentum continues to dominate despite the recent bounce.

If the bulls regain control, XRP could surge towards the 50-day EMA at $1.30, with additional hurdles at $1.40 and $1.61. 

A break above $1.26 would be the first sign that bullish momentum is beginning to strengthen.

However, if the bearish trend persists, XRP could retest the $1.05 support level before dropping below $1.0 to test lower demand zones at $0.95

XRP’s latest rebound is being supported by steady ETF inflows and growing institutional interest. However, declining futures activity, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and a bearish technical structure suggest that the recovery remains tentative.

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Key takeaways

• ADA remains under pressure after last week’s 30% sell-off
• The coin could dip lower if the bearish trend in the market persists.

Cardano (ADA) continues to struggle on Wednesday, trading near $0.1600 and extending losses following last week’s sharp 30% decline. 

The cryptocurrency remains under intense selling pressure as investor confidence weakens and retail participation fades.

Despite the bearish backdrop, on-chain data suggests that selling activity from long-term holders may be approaching exhaustion, potentially laying the groundwork for a future recovery.

Dormant supply spike suggests capitulation among long-term holders

Recent on-chain data from Santiment shows a significant surge in dormant ADA supply re-entering circulation during early June.

Several spikes in dormant supply spent exceeded 20 billion ADA, culminating in a massive 40.6 billion ADA movement on June 9, the largest recorded spike during the current sell-off.

This wave of activity indicates that long-term holders who had previously remained inactive chose to move or sell their holdings amid market weakness. 

The surge also interrupted the growth in the average age of ADA wallets, confirming that dormant addresses became active again.

While further selling from long-term holders remains possible, such spikes are often viewed as capitulation events that signal the exhaustion of selling pressure and frequently precede market bottoms.

Retail sentiment toward Cardano has deteriorated significantly following last week’s decline.

Derivatives data highlights the decline in speculative demand. According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has dropped to $348.55 million, its lowest level since November 2024. This extends a steady decline from $585.35 million recorded on May 12.

A falling OI typically signals that traders are closing leveraged positions and becoming more risk-averse, reducing the likelihood of a strong recovery in the near term.

ADA price analysis: Can Cardano stay above $0.1500?

Cardano is trading slightly below $0.1600, maintaining a bearish trajectory after reaching a short-term peak of $0.1745 on Monday.

Technical indicators continue to favor sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 is approaching the oversold territory, indicating severe selling pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line, confirming that bearish momentum remains dominant.

While oversold conditions could trigger occasional relief rallies, there is currently no strong evidence of a trend reversal.

If the rally resumes, ADA could surge past Monday’s high of $0.1745 before hitting the $0.2000 psychological level. 

A move back above the $0.2205–$0.2275 zone would be needed to weaken the prevailing bearish outlook.

However, if the selloff persists, ADA could drop below Saturday’s low of $0.1486, with the major long-term support at $0.1000 also a target. 

A break below $0.1486 could expose ADA to a deeper decline toward the $0.1000 region.

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Key takeaways

• The oversold technical conditions may limit the pace of the decline, but the broader market structure remains bearish.
•  The structure will remain bearish unless BTC can reclaim the $64,000 region and build momentum back above key moving averages. 

BTC Extends Losses Ahead of Key US Inflation Data Bitcoin (BTC) continued its decline on Wednesday, trading below $61,500 as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent institutional selling kept risk sentiment subdued. 

Investors are also preparing for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. 

Renewed Middle East tensions keep risk assets under pressure

Geopolitical concerns intensified after the United States conducted what it described as self-defense strikes against Iran following the downing of a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by saying it had targeted an airbase in Jordan hosting US forces, as well as locations in Kuwait and Bahrain, and warned of further escalation if US actions continue.

Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US inflation data. Economists expect the May CPI report to show another increase in consumer prices, partly due to elevated energy costs linked to the Middle East crisis. 

If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

Higher borrowing costs tend to reduce liquidity and make yield-bearing assets more attractive relative to risk assets, potentially adding further pressure on Bitcoin. 

Institutional demand remains weak. According to CoinGlass, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $77.44 million on Tuesday, following $91.37 million in outflows earlier in the week.

These withdrawals extend a broader trend of persistent weekly outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that large investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Bears retain control

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin maintains a clearly bearish near-term structure. 

Price remains well below all three major moving averages, while a former upward trendline near $73,004 has turned into resistance, reinforcing the view that the medium-term uptrend has been broken. 

The RSI near 38 indicates oversold conditions that could slow the decline, but it does not yet signal a confirmed reversal. 

The MACD remains in negative territory, although downside momentum appears to be moderating, increasing the risk of consolidation rather than an immediate recovery. 

If the bulls regain control, immediate resistance is seen at the $64,004 level, with the $72,037 zone also posing as a strong supply zone.

No significant support levels are identified immediately below the current price in this setup, leaving BTC vulnerable to further downside if selling pressure persists. 

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Key takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure despite a modest rebound following last week’s sharp correction.
• Derivatives data shows a bearish bias, with long-to-short ratios below 1 and funding rates turning negative for the asset. 

Stellar (XLM) remained under pressure on Tuesday despite staging a modest recovery following last week’s steep market-wide correction. 

Weak derivatives positioning and mixed on-chain signals suggest that recent gains may be corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal.

Market data indicates traders continue to favor downside exposure, reinforcing a cautious outlook for both assets.

Derivatives markets signal growing bearish sentiment

Recent derivatives data from CoinGlass points to increasing pessimism among traders. The long-to-short ratio for XLM fell to 0.73 on Tuesday, approaching its lowest readings in more than a month. 

A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions outweigh long positions, highlighting expectations for further price declines.

The bearish bias is further reflected in funding rates. XLM’s funding rate turned negative on Monday and continued trending lower into Tuesday. 

Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying long-position holders, a sign that traders are increasingly positioning for downside movement.

CryptoQuant’s market summary data presents a mixed but slightly negative outlook for XLM. Data shows elevated activity across both spot and futures markets, with increased retail participation and buy-side dominance. 

While rising buying activity may seem positive, overheated market conditions often precede short-term pullbacks, limiting the potential for a sustained recovery.

Stellar price forecast: Momentum begins to fade

Stellar is trading near $0.195 on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.182 and $0.179, respectively.

While this positioning supports a neutral-to-slightly bullish short-term outlook, XLM continues to face resistance at the 200-day EMA near $0.198.

Technical indicators suggest momentum is cooling. The RSI sits near 45, indicating balanced market conditions. The MACD has slipped below the zero line, signaling weakening bullish momentum and raising the risk of another downside move if buyers fail to regain control.

If the rally resumes, immediate resistance lies at the 200-day EMA at $0.198, with the next upside target at $0.226

However, if the sellers stay in control, initial support is seen at $0.185, with the next level at the 50-day EMA at $0.182.

A daily candle close below these levels would expose lower support zones at $1.79 and $1.43.

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Key takeaways

• WLD is down by more than 3% in the last 24 hours and could dip lower in the near term. 
• Derivatives metrics remain supportive, with WLD’s Open Interest rising steadily alongside a mildly growing number of long positions.

Worldcoin (WLD) has declined by more than 3% on Tuesday, trading below $0.50 while holding above a cluster of key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

Strengthening derivatives activity and favorable technical indicators suggest the token may have room to extend its recent recovery in the near term.

Rising open interest signals growing market confidence

Data from CoinGlass shows that Worldcoin futures Open Interest (OI) has climbed to $406.86 million, up from $377.25 million recorded on Sunday. 

The metric has been trending higher since mid-May, indicating fresh capital is flowing into the market.

An increase in OI is typically viewed as a sign of growing trader participation and can reinforce ongoing price trends. In WLD’s case, the surge suggests investors are increasingly positioning for additional upside.

Adding to the bullish narrative, CoinGlass data shows the WLD long-to-short ratio has recovered to 1.01. 

A reading above 1 indicates that long positions slightly outnumber shorts, reflecting a market bias toward higher prices. Continued improvement in this ratio could further strengthen bullish sentiment.

Despite the positive derivatives backdrop, some cautionary signals are emerging. According to CryptoQuant’s market summary data, both spot and futures markets are experiencing elevated retail participation and increasingly heated trading conditions. 

The data also points to sell-side dominance, suggesting profit-taking activity could limit the pace of any further gains.

These factors may create short-term headwinds even as broader sentiment remains constructive.

Worldcoin price forecast: Bulls defend key support levels

Worldcoin was trading near $0.509 at the time of writing, maintaining a bullish technical structure above a dense cluster of EMAs.

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.504 has emerged as immediate support, sitting just below the current market price. 

Meanwhile, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs remain beneath the market, providing a strong support zone stretching from the upper-$0.30 range to the mid-$0.40 area.

Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 53, indicating strong bullish momentum while remaining below overbought levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, signaling that upward momentum is still intact.

If the downtrend continues, immediate support lies at $0.459 (200-day EMA). A daily candle close above this level could expose WLD to lower levels at the mid-$0.30 area near the 100-day and 50-day EMAs

However, if the rally resumes, initial resistance lies at $0.567, with the next target at $0.676 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Worldcoin’s improving derivatives metrics, rising Open Interest, and bullish technical setup continue to support a positive near-term outlook. 

While elevated retail participation and selling pressure warrant caution, maintaining support above the $0.50 region could pave the way for a move toward the $0.567 and $0.676 resistance levels in the sessions ahead.

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