Grayscale secures a big win against SEC in Bitcoin ETF case

  • U.S. court rules in favour of Grayscale in its lawsuit against SEC.
  • Today’s ruling paves the way for the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum jumped over 5.0% following the news.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit just ruled in favour of Grayscale in its long-running lawsuit against the Securities & Exchange Commission.

First U.S. Bitcoin ETF is now expected soon

SEC had blocked the asset manager’s effort to convert its flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to an exchange-traded fund last year.

But the ruling this morning paves the way for a Bitcoin ETF not just for Grayscale but also for others that have applied for one, including BlackRock and Fidelity. A Grayscale spokeswoman said today:

[Ruling] is a monumental step forward for investors, Bitcoin ecosystem, and those who have been advocating for Bitcoin exposure through added protections of ETF wrapper.

Bitcoin as well as Ethereum jumped more than 5.0% following the announcement on Tuesday.

Why does a Bitcoin ETF attract all the hype?

Note that a Spot Bitcoin ETF is a big deal as several experts are convinced that it would help boost institutional interest in the cryptocurrency and potentially unlock its next leg up.

Shares of Coinbase Global – the listed custodian partner in a bunch of applications for such an exchange-traded fund are also up nearly 15% at writing. According to Dave Weisberger – the Chie Executive of CoinRoutes:

It virtually guarantees they will approve BlackRock and Fidelity. Grayscale may need to refile, but they will almost certainty be approved as well.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust currently manages assets worth about $16 billion. The aforementioned lawsuit against the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission started in June of 2022.

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Digital asset investment products record largest outflows since March

  • Digital assets investment products saw outflows of $168 million last week, $146 million of which was for Bitcoin.
  • It’s the largest weekly outflows total since March 2023, according to a report by CoinShares.

CoinShares’ latest weekly report on digital asset investment flows shows that the market witnessed its largest funds outflows in nearly six months last week. The outflows come as sentiment across cryptocurrency dips amid recent sell-off.

Crypto sees $168 million in outflows

According to the report, outflows totaled $168 million over the week to mark the largest outflow from crypto products since March 2023 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started its regulatory crackdown on major exchanges.

The outflows in the week ended August 25 saw the monthly outflows stand at $278 million as sentiment continued to trend negative amid “exceptionally low trading volume.” Indeed, CoinShares data shows the investment products market traded $1.3 billion last week, about 16% off the year’s average.

“This negative sentiment we believe is due to the increasing acceptance that a spot-based ETF for Bitcoin in the US is likely to take longer than many expect, with recent delays being announced by the SEC,” said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares.

Bitcoin continues to lead

The crypto market recently witnessed a sharp sell-off for Bitcoin, the benchmark cryptocurrency falling to lows of $25,350. The struggle to strengthen above $26k has illustrated the market jitters permeating the broader risk assets sector, with this shown in outflows from Bitcoin investment products.

Bitcoin price chart

However, while outflows totaled $149 million last week, the flagship crypto asset’s flows are net positive for the year at roughly $265 million. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly selling their short positions, with $4 million in outflows registered last week for an 18-week streak of outflows. 

Data shows shorts outflows are currently 89% of the total AuM.

In the altcoin market, Ethereum recorded outflows of $17 million, while XRP and Litecoin had minor inflows of $0.5 million and $0.44 million, respectively.

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JPMorgan analyst says weakness in Bitcoin ‘appears to be at its end phase’

  • Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou is convinced that worst is behind us in Bitcoin.
  • He agreed that there recently have been positive news in crypto market.
  • Price of a Bitcoin has declined nearly 17% in less than two months.

A JPMorgan analyst is convinced that the worst is behind us as far as the ongoing decline in the price of a Bitcoin is concerned.

Bitcoin is not the only one taking a hit

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou attributes recent weakness in the world’s largest cryptocurrency to a bunch of long positions that were liquidated as positive news, including the pending approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF continued to fade but added:

This unwinding of long positions appears to be at its end phase rather than its beginning. As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term.

Note that Bitcoin is not the only risk-on asset that has had a tough few weeks. China-related concerns and higher real yields in the U.S. have been hitting the tech space at large.

Nasdaq Composite is now down about 7.0% versus its recent high.

Why are investors staying on the sidelines?

Panigirtzoglou agrees that there has been positive news in the crypto market including PayPal Holdings introducing its own dollar-pegged stablecoin (read more) and the launch of “Base” by Coinbase Global Inc.

But investors are staying on the sidelines and waiting for regulatory clarity partly because the Securities & Exchange Commission has appealed the recent decision in Ripple’s favour, as per his research note today.

Appeal could result in a trial with outcome not expected until next year, inducing a new round of legal uncertainty for crypto and making them sensitive to any mid-process news.

On Friday, Fed Chair Powell also said at the Jackson Hole symposium that rates may go even higher from here and signalled no near-term intent of cutting rates which doesn’t bode well for the cryptocurrencies either.

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Bitcoin price prediction: A very dangerous pattern is forming

  • Bitcoin price has formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart.

  • It has also formed a bearish flag pattern on the four-hour chart.

Bitcoin price remained in a tight range this week as concerns about the industry continued. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 26,000, where it has been in the past few days. Similarly, the BTC/GBP was stuck at 20,522, which was much higher than last Friday’s low of 19,762.

Bitcoin flash crash 

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued plunging last week as concerns about the industry rose. As it dropped, Bitcoin moved below the important support at $28,300, where it failed to move below in July.

There are numerous reasons for the crash. Technically speaking, Bitcoin formed a double-top pattern, which is one of the most accurate bearish signs in the market. 

At the same time, analysts cite the performance in the derivatives market. Data compiled by CoinGlass showed that open interest worth over $2.5 billion was cleared in a few hours.

This perforance is notable since implied volatility in the options market had crashed to an all-time low earlier tis month. This volatility has now somewhat recovered following the recent plunged. 

As shown below, cumulative volume delta (CVD) has been in the green in the past few days. Weighted open interest has risen while aggregated liquidations have remained substantially low.

Looking ahead, the next likely catalyst for Bitcoin price will be the upcoming meeting at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. This is an annual meeting of central bank officials from around the world. Jerome Powell and other officials will talk about the current state of the economy and the potential actions.

Bitcoin price forecast 

The 4H chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. The chart shows that Bitcoin has moved below the 50-period and 25-period exponential moving averages (EMA).

Most importantly, Bitcoin price has formed a bearish flag pattern. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bearish sign. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Bitcoin price will have a bearish breakout in the coming days, with the next level to watch being at $25,000.

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Bitcoin is not headed for new lows: Scott Melker

  • Wolf of All Street’s host Scott Melker is constructive on Bitcoin.
  • He explained why in an interview with Yahoo Finance today.
  • BTC has tumbled from $31,000 to $26,000 in about six weeks.

Bitcoin is still a bull market despite the sharp sell-off in recent weeks, says Scott Melker – Host of “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast.

Melker remains constructive on Bitcoin

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has retreated from over $31,000 to the sub $26,000 level in about six weeks – fragility that Melker attributes to a “long squeeze”.

But he remains confident that Bitcoin is not at all doomed to make a new low in the coming months. Defending his view on Yahoo Finance, the crypto trader and investor said:

I don’t think there’s reason to suspect we’ll go to new lows like we did after the FTC collapse unless we have some other massive black swan event. I don’t see that in cards.

Note that Jason Pizzino also recently said that BTC could soon be worth over $42,000.

Bitcoin has strong support at $25,000 level

Scott Melker announced $25,000 as a key level to watch in Bitcoin – as long it’s trading above that level, it’s still in a bull market, he added.

The crypto expert sticks the probability of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission this year at 65%. He’s constructive on BTC also because the big players have been loading up on it for months.

If you look at the way Bitcoin has moved over the past four years, we’re in the midst of another four-year cycle in the exact same place that we were last time.

The total supply of Bitcoin is slated to halve in the second quarter of 2024 – an event that’s historically delivered a boost to its price.

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