Bitcoin may soon rally based on ‘fundamental grounds’: Bernstein

  • Bernstein analyst says Grayscale ruling was a game changer.
  • Gautam Chhugani expects Bitcoin to materially benefit from it.
  • The world’s largest cryptocurrency is still lingering around $26,000.

The recent ruling in favour of Grayscale and against the Securities & Exchange Commission was a “game changer”, says Gautam Chhugani – a Bernstein analyst.

Chhugani expects Bitcoin to gain momentum

Last week, a U.S. Court said the regulator lacked adequate reasoning to block Grayscale from converting its bitcoin trust to an exchange-traded fund.

The verdict is a big step towards the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF and paves way for a significant institutions-driven rally in the world’s largest cryptocurrency, as per Chhugani.

Strong showing in courts improved ETF chances and the progressive institutional interest are positioning crypto for an unprecedented institution capital led cycle.

Earlier this year, Ripple secured a huge win in its long-running lawsuit against the Securities & Exchange Commission as well (find out more).

How soon could a Bitcoin ETF be approved?

Despite positive catalysts in recent months, Bitcoin is still lingering around the $26,000 level – well below its year-to-date high of over $31,000. Still, Bernstein’s Chhugani said in his research note today:

This is a cycle slower to take off, but is being laid on much strong fundamental grounds of regulatory clarity and more strategic long-term players entering the space.

He expects the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF to become a reality by March of 2024 at the very most. But the analyst does not expect that exchange-traded fund to be the end of it.

Chhugani is convinced that asset managers will push for a Spot Ethereum ETF afterwards and may even venture eventually into Solana and Polygon.

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Former SEC chair on Bitcoin ETF: ‘I think approval is inevitable’

  • SEC delayed its decision this week on applications for a Bitcoin ETF.
  • Former SEC chair Jay Clayton talked Bitcoin ETF with CNBC on Friday.
  • The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down 18% versus its YTD high.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission delayed its decision on a bunch of applications for a Bitcoin ETF this week.

Jay Clayton talks Bitcoin ETF with CNBC

Applicants that its most recent deferral affected include WisdomTree, Valkyrie, Invesco, Vaneck and BlackRock Inc.

Still, Jay Clayton – the former Chair of the Securities & Exchange Commission is convinced that approval for the said exchange-traded fund is a matter of “when” and not “if”. On CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, he said:

Bitcoin is not a security. So, I think an approval is inevitable. The dichotomy between a futures product and a cash product can’t go on forever. That’s the path we are on.

At writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is down about 18% versus its year-to-date high in mid-July.

Why is SEC delaying deciding on Bitcoin ETF?

Clayton sees the hype around a Bitcoin ETF as a tell that retail and institutional investors alike want access to the digital asset.

Note that a U.S. court ruled in favour of Grayscale this week in its lawsuit against the SEC (find out more). According to the former head of that government agency:

SEC has been given time by the DC Circuit to reassess and perhaps come up with other reasons. Maybe there will be some but I don’t see those.

A Spot Bitcoin ETF is a big deal as many experts believe it could boost demand for the cryptocurrency which may eventually translate to significant price appreciation.

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Bitcoin, crypto prices fall as bumpy September rolls in

  • Crypto prices traded lower on Friday as Bitcoin retested the $26k area.
  • Declines across major altcoins added to the forecast of a “bumpy” ride in historically negative September.

Cryptocurrencies were largely down on Friday, September 1 as major caps slid amid a surprising decline likely fueled by latest delays for spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

As can be seen in the crypto heat map below, Bitcoin (which has retested levels under $26k) and Ethereum (prices have dipped under $1.7k) lead the 24 hour rot. Most top 20 coins are in the red. CoinGecko data also shows the global crypto market cap has dropped by 3.4% at the time of writing.

Crypto price heat map by Coin360

Bitcoin tests $26k area

Analysts say the crypto market could be in for yet another rough September. According to crypto analyst Will Clemente, historical data shows crypto is on a six-year streak of negative returns during this month. Overall, no other month has had as few green monthly candles as September has for Bitcoin price.

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s nearly 5% slip in the past 24 hours has the top crypto “right back where it started prior to the Grayscale news” that catalysed the broader crypto market. The upside that followed the court decision could now be more of a ““buy the rumour, sell the news” event,” the market intelligence provider noted.

Stock-to-flow model creator PlanB points to the fact that Bitcoin has to shake off “all tourists and weak hands before take-off.”

While the next few weeks will likely be as choppy as anything, analysts are forecasting a return to upside momentum in mid-October. This outlook bears in mind the potential for a SEC decision on the multiple ETF applications it delayed on Thursday.

Bitcoin was trading near $26,000 after testing lows of $25,683, with the price range of $25,600-$26,600 a key zone. Both bulls and bears are eyeing control here and a flip lower is likely if we have a “Sept-repeat”.

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Stacks and Toncoin lead the bull cycle as global crypto market cap surge

  • Stacks (STX) has gained 18.43% today to trade at $0.5319 at press time.
  • Toncoin (TON) has gained 15.51% today to trade at $1.74 at press time
  • Bitcoin Cash (BCH) had jumped by 12.33% to trade at $216.57.

The cryptocurrency market has turned green today with a majority of the top cryptocurrencies by market cap registering significant price surges. Stacks (STX), Toncoin (TON), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) have come out as the top gainers as the global crypto market cap increased by 4.35% to hit $1.09 trillion. 

But what is making the crypto market surge? Well, let’s delve into the factors behind today’s crypto price surges.

Why is the crypto market rising today?

Today’s crypto market price surge coincides with Grayscale’s win against the US SEC in the Bitcoin ETF case.

The US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit on August 29 ruled in favour of Grayscale in its long-running lawsuit against the Securities & Exchange Commission.

The ruling was monumental for the crypto industry which has been agitating for SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs. The ruling not only paves the way for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF petition filed by Grayscale but also for the BTC ETF applications made by BlackRock and Fidelity.

Bitcoin price chart

 

After a long consolidation of around $26k, Bitcoin price momentarily surged above $28k minutes after the court ruling on August 29. Although the price of BTC has since slightly pulled back the bulls still seem to be squarely in control.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has also surged above $1,700 after staying below $1,700 for two straight weeks.

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BREAKING: Bitcoin hits $28k after Grayscale win against SEC

  • Bitcoin price rose to highs of $28,142 on crypto exchange Bitstamp on Tuesday.
  • The gains came as the crypto market reacted to news of Grayscale’s win against the SEC.

Bitcoin price saw a huge spike in volatility on Tuesday afternoon as prices across the crypto market rose. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap jumped 7% to trade to highs of $28,142 at 1:05 pm ET, with the crypto market cap rising 6% to $1.15 trillion.

Bitcoin price chart

Elsewhere in the market, Ethereum traded to highs of $1,740, with its value up 5% in the past 24 hours. All the top 10 altcoins were in the green on the day at the time of writing, with BNB up 4%, XRP +3.8%, Cardano +4% and Dogecoin +6%.

Why is Bitcoin and crypto surging?

Bitcoin’s sharp price action to the new multi-week high came as the market reacted to news that Grayscale Investments had won in its lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

As CoinJournal reported earlier today, the DC Circuit court ruled that the SEC had wrongfully denied Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Bitcoin Trust fund (GBTC) to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The court vacated the SEC’s order disapproving the application and granted the petition to have SEC review the proposal.

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