Schlagwort: crypto business

• Solana CME futures OI hits record $2.16B as institutions accumulate ahead of SEC ETF ruling.
• Solana ETPs surpass $500M AUM, led by REXShares SSK and Bitwise BSOL staking products.
• SOL price outlook: pullback to $210 seen as healthy, while $250 breakout eyes $290 highs.

Solana (SOL) futures have entered a defining phase as institutional interest gathers momentum, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) open interest reaching an all-time high of $2.16 billion.

This comes as SOL’s price rebounded 23% from $195 to $235, signaling renewed optimism in the lead-up to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) October 10 decision on a Solana ETF.

Institutions drive futures open interest

The surge in CME open interest coincided with Solana finding a local bottom, a timing that suggests institutions are positioning aggressively ahead of key regulatory developments.

The CME annualized basis currently sits at 16.37%, down from its July peak of 35%. This indicates a constructive yet not overheated futures market.

By contrast, retail-driven open interest on centralized exchanges has remained relatively flat, with funding rates hovering near neutral.

The cautious stance by retail traders reflects the lingering impact of the $307 million in liquidations on September 22, when $250 million in long positions were wiped out.

This divergence between institutional conviction and retail hesitation is contributing to a more balanced market dynamic.

Market analysts note that the current setup reduces the risk of over-leveraged volatility.

Institutions appear to be accumulating with conviction, while the lack of retail chase helps prevent speculative excess.

This creates a backdrop that is bullish but measured, less prone to sharp drawdowns.

Growing institutional adoption through ETPs

In addition to futures activity, institutional demand for Solana has been reinforced by inflows into regulated investment products.

This week, Solana exchange-traded products (ETPs) surpassed $500 million in assets under management (AUM).

Leading the flows is the Solana Staking ETF (SSK) from REXShares, which has now exceeded $400 million in AUM.

The Bitwise Solana Staking ETP (BSOL) also crossed the $100 million mark.

Both products have grown rapidly since their launch, underscoring the increasing appetite for regulated vehicles that provide Solana exposure.

The milestone highlights how Solana is gaining traction among institutional investors, not just through derivatives but also through asset management channels.

With speculation mounting around a potential US-listed Solana ETF, these developments signal rising confidence in the altcoin’s long-term adoption.

Price outlook: balanced but bullish

Solana’s near-term price trajectory depends on whether retail traders re-enter the market.

On the downside, analysts note that a retracement toward $218–$210 would remain consistent with a bullish structure.

Such a pullback would align with a fair value gap (FVG) on the four-hour chart and retest the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA).

The liquidation heatmap also identifies a liquidity cluster of over $200 million between $220 and $200, making this zone a potential short-term price magnet.

A correction into this range could help establish a higher low while flushing out late entrants.

On the upside, a move above $245–$250 would signal renewed strength and could propel SOL toward its all-time highs near $290.

Given the backdrop of institutional flows and ETF speculation, this scenario carries growing weight.

For now, Solana futures reflect a market transitioning from fear into cautious accumulation.

Institutions are anchoring the trend, and their growing presence in both futures and ETPs suggests that even if corrections occur, they are likely to be shallow rather than trend-breaking.

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• Whales have added $1.5B in XRP, signalling strong institutional demand.
• Seven XRP ETFs await the SEC’s ruling starting October 18, lifting approval hopes.
• XRP has held the $3 support as rate cuts and treasuries fuel a bullish outlook.

XRP has entered October with renewed momentum, breaking above the $3 mark and capturing the attention of traders, institutions, and regulators alike.

The cryptocurrency, which has often played second fiddle to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in major rallies, is now being positioned by analysts and market watchers as a possible leader of the next bullish wave.

A mix of whale accumulation, mounting XRP ETF speculation, and a favourable macroeconomic backdrop has set the stage for what could be one of XRP’s most decisive periods in years.

Whales’ appetite for XRP on the rise

Large holders have made their presence felt in recent days, with wallets holding between 100 million and one billion XRP adding over half a billion tokens worth $1.54 billion.

That surge brought whale balances close to record highs and underscored conviction at current levels.

Even after minor profit-taking, whale positions remain elevated, reflecting confidence in XRP’s trajectory.

At the same time, short-term investors have also been building positions. The one-month to three-month holding group has grown steadily, while the share of supply moving within a single day spiked dramatically.

Together, this simultaneous whale and retail accumulation has created a rare moment of alignment, with both ends of the market betting on a breakout above $3.10 in the short term.

XRP ETFs approval odds surge ahead of October ruling

Much of the growing enthusiasm stems from the looming decisions on several spot XRP exchange-traded fund applications.

The US SEC is scheduled to issue its first ruling on October 18, with six more cases lined up through the following week.

Notably, regulatory changes, including the adoption of new Generic Listing Standards, have boosted approval odds and drawn comparisons to the process that paved the way for Bitcoin ETFs.

The Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted more than $150 billion in inflows, and if XRP ETFs receive similar approval, even on a smaller scale, the resulting accessibility for traditional investors could mark a turning point.

Prediction markets, including Polymarkets, are already pricing approval odds at above 99%, fueling speculative flows in anticipation of a green light.

Institutions are accumulating XRP

Alongside ETF bets, corporate treasuries are also beginning to add XRP.

VivoPower, a Nasdaq-listed company, announced plans to allocate $19 million into XRP, while Japan’s Gumi has added more than $13 million worth to its holdings.

These moves reinforce the idea that firms see XRP as more than just a speculative token, but also as a long-term asset with utility in cross-border payments.

Ripple itself has been pushing forward on the institutional front.

In Japan, SBI Holdings has expanded institutional XRP lending services after its partnership with Ripple, a move that deepens Asian liquidity.

Meanwhile, Ripple announced a $1.3 million donation in stablecoins to fund a new Center for Digital Assets at UC Berkeley, a hub that will focus on blockchain research and tokenisation of real-world assets.

These initiatives add weight to the narrative that XRP is positioning itself for broader financial adoption.

XRP price outlook

The XRP price has gained nearly 11% in the past week and more than 490% over the past year, reflecting its ability to capitalise on favourable cycles.

However, it has been locked in a descending triangular channel since early August, but recent moves suggest that pressure is building for a decisive break.

The token has already reclaimed both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting in a neutral zone and momentum indicators like the MACD turning bullish.

The coming weeks could prove more decisive than the past year combined, especially with whale inflows, corporate treasuries stepping in, ETF deadlines approaching, and the macroeconomic backdrop turning supportive.

Eyes are currently at the short-term resistance at $3.10, which remains the key barrier for any further bullish momentum.

A sustained close above $3.10 could open the door to targets near $3.40 and potentially $3.66.

Some analysts even see the possibility of a run to $4.20 if strong volume and institutional flows accompany the move.

However, for the altcoin to sustain the current bullish breakout, it must remain above the support at $2.99, which has remained firm over recent sessions.

The post XRP price outlook: why whales, ETFs, and rate cuts could send XRP soaring appeared first on CoinJournal.

• AlloyX unveils tokenized money market fund RYT on Polygon for DeFi trading and yield looping.
• RYT holds bank-custodied assets via Standard Chartered, regulated and audit-compliant.
• Tokenized MMFs gain traction as institutions and retail bridge traditional finance with DeFi.

Tokenization infrastructure firm AlloyX has introduced a new tokenized money market fund on Polygon, reflecting the growing trend of bringing real-world assets (RWAs) to blockchain ecosystems.

The fund, dubbed the Real Yield Token (RYT), aims to merge traditional bank-custodied assets with decentralized finance (DeFi) strategies, offering investors both familiarity and blockchain-native utility.

RYT combines traditional MMF security with DeFi flexibility

RYT represents shares in a conventional money market fund, with the underlying assets held in custody by Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

The fund is fully regulated and subject to regular audits, giving investors confidence in its compliance and security.

Like other money market funds, RYT invests in short-term, low-risk instruments, including US Treasurys and commercial paper, ensuring capital preservation while generating modest yields.

The tokenized format, however, introduces new functionality.

RYT shares can be traded onchain and integrated into DeFi protocols, enabling users to employ their holdings as collateral.

Through a DeFi technique known as looping, investors can borrow against their RYT tokens and reinvest the proceeds to enhance yields — a feature not typically available in traditional money market products.

AlloyX chose Polygon for deployment, citing the network’s low fees, fast transaction speeds, and vibrant DeFi ecosystem.

Institutional interest in tokenized money market funds grows

AlloyX is entering a rapidly expanding market.

Large financial institutions have increasingly explored tokenized money market funds to combine the stability of cash-like assets with the efficiency and composability of blockchain.

Notable examples include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), which offers tokenized exposure to US dollar yields through Treasury bills and repurchase agreements.

Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon have also announced plans for similar tokenized MMFs, although these generally do not include DeFi-native functionalities like looping or composability, which set AlloyX’s RYT apart.

According to a June report by Moody’s, tokenized short-term liquidity funds remain a “small but rapidly growing product,” with the market reaching an estimated $5.7 billion since 2021.

The trend underscores growing institutional interest in bridging traditional finance with digital markets while providing investors with onchain access to familiar, low-risk instruments.

Tokenized MMFs address cash management needs in DeFi

The rising adoption of tokenized money market funds is also linked to broader developments in the crypto ecosystem, such as the passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States and increased stablecoin usage.

These factors have heightened demand for onchain products that retain the liquidity and security of cash-like assets.

JPMorgan strategist Teresa Ho told Bloomberg that tokenized MMFs offer a practical alternative to posting cash or Treasurys in DeFi protocols.

“Instead of posting cash, or posting Treasurys, you can post money-market shares and not lose interest along the way. It speaks to the versatility of money funds,” she said, emphasizing the appeal of products like RYT for investors seeking both yield and utility.

AlloyX’s launch represents a notable milestone for tokenized finance, showcasing the potential for traditional instruments to coexist with decentralized protocols while offering innovative ways to generate yield.

As demand for real-world assets on blockchain grows, products like RYT may become a key bridge between conventional finance and DeFi, appealing to both institutional and retail investors seeking secure, liquid, and composable onchain assets.

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• JPMorgan says Bitcoin undervalued vs gold, sets $165K year-end target.
• Bitcoin ETF inflows show retail investors driving the “debasement trade.”
• Rising gold prices make Bitcoin more attractive, says JPMorgan analysts.

Bitcoin could rally to $165,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at JPMorgan, who argue the cryptocurrency remains undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.

The projection comes as bitcoin hovers near $119,000, bolstered by growing investor demand for alternative stores of value amid global economic and political uncertainty.

Bitcoin valuation relative to gold

In a report released Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning bitcoin now consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.

On that basis, they estimate bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to rise by roughly 42% — translating into a price of about $165,000 — to align with the $6 trillion invested privately in gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bars, and coins.

The analysis marks a notable shift compared with the end of 2024, when JPMorgan calculated bitcoin was $36,000 overvalued relative to gold. Now, they suggest it is undervalued by approximately $46,000.

“This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.

The latest outlook builds on an earlier forecast from August, when the bank projected a year-end bitcoin price of $126,000.

Since then, rising gold prices have improved bitcoin’s relative attractiveness, prompting JPMorgan to revise its implied target upward.

The rise of the “debasement trade”

JPMorgan’s analysts framed the bullish scenario within what they call the “debasement trade,” a growing movement among investors seeking protection against inflation, government deficits, geopolitical risks, and declining trust in fiat currencies.

Both bitcoin and gold have benefitted from this trend, with inflows into ETFs tracking the two assets rising significantly over the past year.

According to the report, retail investors have been the driving force behind the surge, particularly in bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into spot bitcoin funds accelerated in the first half of 2025, before easing somewhat in August. At the same time, gold ETFs began attracting stronger demand, narrowing the gap in cumulative inflows between the two asset classes.

The analysts noted that while institutional investors have participated through CME futures contracts, positioning in futures has been weaker compared with ETF inflows, highlighting the retail tilt of the debasement trade.

A bullish consensus emerging

Bitcoin’s potential upside, as highlighted by JPMorgan, adds to a broader wave of bullish calls heading into the final quarter of the year.

Several other analysts and firms have floated forecasts of bitcoin reaching $200,000, underscoring heightened optimism around the asset.

At present, bitcoin is trading near $119,000, leaving room for significant gains if JPMorgan’s $165,000 target materializes.

The upward revision reflects both relative valuation dynamics with gold and the broader macro environment driving demand for non-traditional stores of value.

Whether bitcoin achieves JPMorgan’s implied valuation will depend on the persistence of investor appetite for the debasement trade and its ability to compete with gold for capital allocation.

For now, the report highlights bitcoin’s evolving role alongside precious metals as a key hedge against economic and political risks.

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