Spot Bitcoin ETF sees sharp inflow revival amid shifting US rate signals

  • Fidelity’s FBTC dominated inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT also posting strong demand.
  • Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $57 billion.
  • Shifting US rate expectations are shaping institutional ETF positioning.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds listed in the US recorded a sharp revival in inflows on Wednesday, signalling renewed institutional engagement after weeks of uneven activity.

The move marked the strongest single-day intake in more than a month and coincided with shifting expectations around US monetary policy.

While Bitcoin’s price action remains constrained by heavy supply levels, ETF flows suggest investors are reassessing exposure through regulated products as macro conditions evolve.

Inflows rebound across major funds

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $457 million in net inflows on Wednesday, their highest daily total since mid-November.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the session, attracting roughly $391 million and accounting for the bulk of the inflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust followed with around $111 million, according to data from Farside Investors.

The latest intake pushed cumulative net inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs above $57 billion.

Total net assets climbed past $112 billion, equivalent to about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalisation.

The figures underline the growing role ETFs play in shaping institutional access to Bitcoin exposure.

Shift after weeks of uneven flows

The inflow revival comes after a choppy period through November and early December, when ETF activity swung between modest inflows and sharp outflows.

That instability reflected cautious positioning amid uncertain price direction and tightening liquidity conditions.

The last time spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows above $450 million was on November 11, when funds drew roughly $524 million in a single day.

The renewed activity suggests investors may be positioning earlier in anticipation of changing macro conditions, rather than responding to short-term price momentum.

ETF flows have increasingly become a barometer for how institutions interpret broader financial signals.

US rate signals influence positioning

Macro expectations shifted further on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said he plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair who strongly supports cutting interest rates.

Speaking during a national address marking the first year of his second term, Trump said he would announce a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell early next year.

He added that all known finalists favour lower rates than current levels.

Lower interest rates are generally viewed as supportive for risk assets such as crypto, as they ease financial conditions and improve liquidity.

Against this backdrop, spot Bitcoin ETFs appear to be attracting capital as a relatively direct way to express macro-driven positioning.

Price pressure and fragile demand persist

Despite stronger ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s market structure remains under pressure.

The asset has returned to price levels last seen nearly a year ago, leaving a dense supply zone between $93,000 and $120,000 that continues to cap recovery attempts.

This has pushed the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss to around 6.7 million BTC, the highest level of the current cycle, according to Glassnode.

Glassnode data also points to fragile demand across both spot and derivatives markets.

Spot buying has been selective and short-lived, corporate treasury flows episodic, and futures positioning continues to de-risk rather than rebuild conviction.

Until sellers are absorbed above $95,000 or fresh liquidity enters the market, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound, with structural support forming near $81,000.

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Coinbase gains India regulatory clearance for CoinDCX investment

  • Coinbase has been an investor in CoinDCX since 2020 and disclosed the latest infusion in October.
  • The approval follows Coinbase’s reopening of user registrations in India after a two-year hiatus.
  • CoinDCX reported a $44.2 million wallet-related security breach in July without customer fund losses.

India’s competition regulator has cleared Coinbase’s plan to deepen its ties with CoinDCX, marking another step in the US-based exchange’s renewed engagement with the Indian crypto market.

The approval allows Coinbase to acquire a minority stake in DCX Global Limited, the parent company of CoinDCX, at a time when global exchanges are reassessing their exposure to high-growth but tightly regulated jurisdictions.

For India, the decision signals a willingness to permit foreign participation in the digital asset sector under formal regulatory scrutiny, even as policy uncertainty and elevated taxes continue to shape market behaviour.

The clearance was issued by the Competition Commission of India on Wednesday, following a review of the proposed transaction.

It comes shortly after Coinbase reopened user registrations in India, ending a two-year pause in local onboarding.

Together, the developments point to a cautious but deliberate attempt by Coinbase to rebuild its presence in one of the world’s largest potential crypto markets.

CCI clears Coinbase CoinDCX deal

The Competition Commission of India approved the transaction involving Coinbase Global Inc. and DCX Global Limited, enabling the acquisition of a minority shareholding.

The regulator confirmed the decision through an official disclosure shared on social media platform X, stating that the proposed combination had received approval.

Coinbase has been associated with CoinDCX since 2022, having invested in the Indian exchange during its earlier expansion phase.

The latest approval formalises an additional capital infusion that was disclosed by Coinbase in mid-October, but required regulatory sign-off before completion.

Coinbase India return strategy

The investment approval aligns with Coinbase’s broader effort to re-enter India after scaling back operations in 2023.

Last week, the exchange resumed onboarding Indian users, initially enabling crypto-to-crypto trading.

According to company plans, a rupee on-ramp is expected to follow in 2026, expanding access beyond token swaps and improving local usability.

This phased approach reflects the constraints of operating in India’s regulatory environment, where compliance requirements and payment restrictions have previously limited foreign exchanges.

By strengthening its stake in CoinDCX, Coinbase gains indirect exposure to local market infrastructure while maintaining regulatory distance from day-to-day operations.

CoinDCX security and market context

The approval also comes after a turbulent year for CoinDCX.

In July, the exchange disclosed a $44.2 million security breach involving one of its wallets.

The company said at the time that customer funds were not impacted, but the incident added pressure in an already cautious market environment.

India continues to pose challenges for crypto platforms due to high transaction taxes and unresolved regulatory frameworks.

Despite these hurdles, the competition watchdog’s decision suggests that authorities are prepared to accommodate global firms, provided investments are structured and subject to oversight.

For Coinbase, the clearance offers a regulated pathway back into India.

For the broader market, it highlights how foreign exchanges may increasingly rely on minority investments and partnerships to navigate complex local rules.

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XRP price loses $1.90 support as altcoins bleed further

  • XRP price is down 5% to trade near $1.80.
  • The altcoin’s losses come amid overall bearish market sentiment.
  • Ripple token could dip to $1.50, but a bounce is also likely.

Ripple token XRP fell 5% as the cryptocurrency market saw fresh selling pressure in early trading on December 18, 2025.

With major altcoins extending recent declines, Ripple’s cryptocurrency dipped to lows of $1.81.

Amid this broader risk aversion, XRP, one of the top-performing assets earlier in the year, risks slipping further.

XRP bears push price towards $1.80

The XRP token traded around $1.83 at the time of writing.

After breaking lower on Tuesday, prices were down 5% in the past 24 hours as sellers rejected advances at $1.98.

It looked as though they could test bullish sentiment around the $1.80 support zone.

On Thursday, the altcoin touched lows of $1.81, declines that put prices at risk of downside acceleration.

As market data shows, falling price action is accompanied by elevated trading volumes.

Normally, this suggests active distribution rather than isolated panic selling.

This decline aligns with weakness across the altcoin sector, as Bitcoin hovered below the key threshold of $90,000.

Negative sentiment across traditional risk assets is contributing to the selling pressure. Headwinds include macroeconomic uncertainty.

Ripple price forecast

The breach of $1.90 flips the former support at $2.00 into potential overhead resistance.

XRP’s recent moves reinforce bearish control in the near term.

Technical indicators, including a downward-sloping 50-day exponential moving average and downsloping RSI readings, indicate waning momentum.

Meanwhile, derivatives markets have seen increased liquidations on long positions, further exacerbating the downside pressure.

Whale activity also remains mixed.

Despite some large holders accumulating during dips, overall on-chain metrics show heightened distribution from older cohorts.

This dynamic has contributed to the failure of recent rebound attempts, and the reason XRP bulls have found themselves pushed below the $2.00 psychological mark.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook for XRP means bears have an upper hand.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a bearish warning for XRP, identifying a potential “double-top” reversal pattern on its price chart.

This technical setup suggests a possible trend reversal if the asset fails to breach established resistance levels.

Brandt’s caution highlights a growing divergence between technical indicators and Ripple’s strengthening fundamentals, which include recent stablecoin expansions and new institutional tools.

While acknowledging the pattern could fail, Brandt maintains that the current formation signals waning momentum.

Consequently, market focus shifts to XRP’s key support levels as investors weigh technical risks against the ecosystem’s long-term adoption efforts.

A sustained break below current levels could see bears targeting the next major support area at $1.70 and potentially $1.50.

However, counterfactors could provide relief for buyers.

Notably, spot XRP ETFs have maintained consistent inflows.

XRP ETFs saw $9.84 million worth of inflows on December 17 according to data by Coinglass.

Confidence in XRP’s long-term outlook means reclaiming $2.00 would open the door for a sentiment flip.

If there’s a rebound toward $2.30, further upside momentum potentially has $3.00 into play.

XRP continues to wait for a breach of the $4.00 mark.

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MSCI index exclusion puts crypto treasury companies at risk of forced selling

  • Analysts estimate forced outflows of up to $15 billion if passive funds are required to sell.
  • Strategy accounts for nearly three-quarters of the impacted float-adjusted market capitalisation.
  • MSCI’s final decision is due by Jan. 15, with possible implementation in February 2026.

Crypto treasury companies could face heavy selling pressure if MSCI proceeds with a proposal to exclude them from its equity indexes.

Campaigners and analysts warn that removal from widely tracked benchmarks could force passive funds to offload billions of dollars worth of crypto-linked exposure.

The debate has intensified as markets digest months of declining prices and as index providers reassess how to classify firms with large digital asset holdings.

With MSCI’s decision timeline now clear, companies and investors are closely watching what could become a defining moment for crypto’s place in mainstream equity benchmarks.

Potential selling pressure builds

BitcoinForCorporations, a group opposing the proposal, estimates that exclusions could trigger between $10 billion and $15 billion in passive outflows.

The calculation is based on a verified preliminary list of 39 companies with a combined float-adjusted market capitalisation of $113 billion.

Analysts reviewing the same universe put potential outflows at around $11.6 billion across all affected firms.

The largest exposure sits with Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously known as Microstrategy), which represents 74.5% of the total impacted float-adjusted market cap.

JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that Strategy alone could see $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indexes.

Such forced selling could add pressure to crypto markets that have already been trending lower for nearly three months.

Why MSCI rules matter

MSCI announced in October that it was consulting investors on whether companies holding the majority of their balance sheet in crypto should be excluded from its indexes.

These benchmarks are used by passive investment funds worldwide to decide which stocks they must hold.

As a result, inclusion or exclusion can directly affect a company’s access to capital and shareholder base.

For crypto treasury firms, index membership has become increasingly important as institutional ownership grows.

Any rule change that leads to exclusion would not be a technical adjustment but a structural shift in how these companies are treated by global asset managers.

Balance sheet debate intensifies

BitcoinForCorporations argues that using balance sheet composition as a deciding factor is flawed.

The group says a single metric does not capture whether a company operates a real business with customers, revenue, and ongoing operations.

Under the proposed approach, firms could be removed even if their core business model remains unchanged.

The group has urged MSCI to abandon the proposal and continue classifying companies based on business activity, financial performance, and operational characteristics rather than crypto exposure alone.

The concern is that the rule would effectively penalise companies for holding digital assets without assessing how those assets fit into broader corporate strategy.

MSCI is expected to publish its final conclusions by January 15.

If approved, implementation would be scheduled for the February 2026 Index Review, setting the stage for potential large-scale reallocations by passive funds.

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Bitcoin price forecast: BTC above $87k but sentiment remains bearish

Key takeaways 

  • BTC is up 1.5% in the last 24 hours and is now trading above $87k per coin.
  • The performance comes despite the bearish sentiment in the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin recaptures $87k

The cryptocurrency market is bullish on Wednesday following a poor start to the week, with Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP currently in the green. The price action for the top three cryptocurrencies remains weak, but they could record temporary relief over the next few hours.  

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is trading above $87k per coin but could record further losses in the near term. In an email to Coinjournal, Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of the Coin Bureau, believes that the market could face further selling pressure over the next few days. Nic added that,

“Bitcoin is in the red once again – a chart that is becoming all too familiar as a disappointing Q4 draws to a close. Having fallen to around $86,000, BTC is now knocking on the door of its 100-week moving average – a strong support level that sits around $84,800. And, once again, AI bubble fears and concerns over future monetary policy appear to be to blame.” 

Bitcoin could extend its correction in the near term

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin has underperformed since the start of the week. Bitcoin’s price faced rejection on Friday and has lost 7% of its value since then. 

BTC retested the $85,569 support level on Monday, with the level holding, allowing BTC to hit the $87,500 level on Wednesday. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart

If the correction continues and the daily candle closes below the $85,569 support, Bitcoin could extend the decline toward the psychological $80,000 level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is at 38, below its neutral level of 50, indicating bearish momentum gaining traction. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines have converged, adding a bearish narrative to the chart. 

However, if the bullish trend resumes, Bitcoin could rally towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253.

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