Who regulates prediction markets? Coinbase forces a US legal test

  • Coinbase argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over event contracts.
  • Earlier cases involving Kalshi show courts have yet to settle the issue decisively.
  • The rulings could shape how prediction markets and related financial products develop nationwide.

Coinbase has taken its dispute with US regulators to court as it expands into prediction markets, filing lawsuits against authorities in Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan.

The legal challenge centres on a fundamental question facing financial markets in the United States: whether prediction markets should be regulated at the federal level as financial derivatives or treated by states as gambling products.

Coinbase argues that the answer has already been set out in federal law.

State regulators disagree, setting up a clash that could redefine oversight for event-based markets tied to finance, politics, and real-world outcomes.

A jurisdictional battle takes shape

The exchange’s case is built around the Commodity Exchange Act, which grants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over derivatives, including event contracts.

Coinbase maintains that prediction markets listed on CFTC-supervised platforms fall squarely within this framework.

From the company’s perspective, state efforts to apply local gambling laws amount to regulatory overreach.

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, has positioned the lawsuits as a response to what the company sees as a direct conflict between federal authority and state enforcement.

Coinbase argues that allowing individual states to intervene risks creating a fragmented regulatory system that undermines national consistency. In that scenario, stricter jurisdictions could effectively block federally approved products across the country.

Gambling labels under scrutiny

A central issue in the lawsuits is how prediction markets are defined.

State regulators have moved to classify them alongside sports betting and casino-style gambling.

Coinbase rejects this comparison, arguing that the mechanics are fundamentally different.

Prediction markets operate as marketplaces that match buyers and sellers who take opposing views on future events.

Prices are set by market demand rather than by a house that manages odds.

Coinbase says this structure aligns prediction markets with derivatives trading, not wagering, and places them within the scope of federal commodities law rather than state gaming statutes.

Federal oversight and compliance claims

Coinbase has also pointed to the regulatory obligations attached to CFTC-supervised markets.

These include monitoring for manipulation, position limits, and ongoing compliance requirements designed to protect market integrity.

According to the exchange, these safeguards already address many of the consumer protection concerns cited by state regulators.

Ryan VanGrack, Coinbase’s Vice President of Legal, has argued that state-level intervention risks duplicating or conflicting with federal oversight.

The company maintains that pulling prediction markets under local gambling rules ignores how federally regulated derivatives markets operate and threatens uniform supervision.

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Terraform Labs liquidator sues Jump Trading for $4B in damages

  • Terraform Lab’s liquidator alleges Jump secretly propped up UST while misleading markets.
  • Court filings claim Jump gained billions through discounted Luna deals and early exits.
  • Jump denies wrongdoing as US courts revisit accountability beyond Do Kwon.

Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy estate has filed a sweeping lawsuit against market-making giant Jump Trading, accusing it and its executives of secretly manipulating the Terra ecosystem and profiting while the project unravelled.

The administrator overseeing Terraform’s liquidation is seeking $4 billion in damages, arguing that responsibility for one of crypto’s most destructive failures extends well beyond founder Do Kwon.

A collapse that reshaped crypto

The lawsuit revisits the dramatic implosion of TerraUSD and its sister token, LUNA, in 2022.

Terraform Labs built TerraUSD as an algorithmic stablecoin designed to maintain a one-dollar peg through trading incentives, rather than relying on reserves.

When that mechanism failed, confidence evaporated almost overnight.

Within days, LUNA entered a death spiral and more than $40 billion in market value was erased, sending shockwaves through the digital asset industry.

The fallout contributed to subsequent failures at major cryptocurrency lenders and hedge funds, ultimately deepening a crisis of trust across the sector.

Terraform Labs filed for bankruptcy in early 2024 and later agreed to pay roughly $4.5 billion to settle civil charges brought by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Do Kwon, the company’s co-founder, who pleaded guilty to criminal charges, was recently sentenced to 15 years in prison.

Secret deals behind the scenes

According to the bankruptcy estate, the story did not end with Kwon.

Todd Snyder, the court-appointed administrator managing Terraform’s liquidation, alleges that Jump Trading played a hidden and central role in propping up Terra long before its final collapse.

Court filings claim that Jump and Terraform entered undisclosed agreements as early as 2019.

Under those deals, Jump allegedly gained access to millions of Luna tokens at steep discounts.

One agreement cited in the complaint allowed the firm to buy LUNA for about $0.40 per token when the market price later exceeded $110.

The administrator claims these arrangements laid the groundwork for massive profits once Luna surged.

The lawsuit also points to an informal “gentlemen’s agreement” between Jump and Terraform.

According to Snyder, Jump secretly committed to supporting TerraUSD’s peg during periods of stress while Terraform publicly attributed any recovery to the strength of its algorithm.

The arrangement was allegedly concealed to avoid regulatory and market scrutiny.

The May 2021 warning signs

The lawsuit places particular emphasis on events in May 2021, when TerraUSD briefly lost its dollar peg.

At the time, Terraform said the stablecoin’s recovery proved the resilience of its design. The lawsuit now alleges a different reality.

Snyder claims that Jump intervened by purchasing large amounts of TerraUSD, masking fundamental weaknesses in the system.

Investors, he argues, were misled into believing the mechanism had worked as intended.

After that episode exposed flaws in Terra’s design, Jump allegedly negotiated to remove vesting and lockup provisions from its contracts.

Those changes allowed the firm to receive monthly Luna allocations and sell them immediately.

The administrator says this intensified selling pressure and positioned Jump to exit profitably as risks mounted.

Jump pushes back

Jump Trading has categorically rejected the allegations, and it intends to defend itself vigorously.

A company spokesperson has described the lawsuit as an attempt to shift blame away from Terraform Labs and Do Kwon.

Earlier in 2024, the SEC accused Jump’s crypto unit, Tai Mo Shan, of intervening during the May 2021 depeg and later profiting from unlocked LUNA sales.

Tai Mo Shan settled those claims for about $123 million without admitting wrongdoing.

During SEC questioning, both DiSomma and former Jump crypto president Kanav Kariya repeatedly invoked their Fifth Amendment rights.

For Snyder, the current lawsuit is about accountability. Even with Kwon behind bars, he argues that courts must still determine who knew what, who intervened, and who ultimately profited from Terra’s rise and fall.

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Bybit returns to UK crypto market after 2 years

  • The exchange restarted access on Thursday, including spot trading across 100 currency pairs.
  • FCA financial promotion rules introduced in October 2023 led several crypto firms to end UK operations.
  • The UK government has said it intends to establish a crypto rulebook by 2027.

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, says it has restarted services in the UK, nearly two years after tougher rules on the promotion and marketing of crypto products pushed firms to pull back.

The company, which says it has around 80 million users globally, relaunched UK access on Thursday with a set of products that includes spot trading across 100 currency pairs, reports CoinDesk.

The move comes as the Financial Conduct Authority continues to scrutinise how crypto services are advertised to British residents, while the UK government has signalled it wants a fuller crypto rulebook in place by 2027.

Why Bybit left and what changed

The FCA tightened its financial promotion regime for crypto advertising in October 2023, triggering a wave of operational changes across the industry and prompting several firms to end UK activity.

According to CoinDesk, Bybit said its return is built around meeting FCA financial promotion standards, with an emphasis on clearer communications and transparency for UK users.

The company is not licensed in the UK, but says it is operating within a framework designed to comply with the FCA’s requirements for promotions.

That framework matters because, under the rules, crypto marketing aimed at UK consumers must be approved by an authorised firm unless an exemption applies.

What UK users can access now

Bybit said UK customers can again use its services, including spot trading across 100 currency pairs, notes CoinDesk.

The exchange described the restart as a reopening of UK services rather than a limited pilot, positioning it as a return to the market after the regulatory shift.

Bybit’s policy team framed the UK as a market with a sophisticated financial ecosystem and a clearer regulatory direction, saying the exchange intends to introduce products tailored for UK users while prioritising transparency and compliance.

How Archax is enabling compliant crypto promotion

To support its UK activity, Bybit will operate and market its services via London-based crypto exchange Archax.

Archax holds a specific FCA permission that allows it to approve financial promotions, a route that can enable unauthorised firms to legally market and provide services to UK consumers.

Archax said it is supporting Bybit’s compliant access to the UK market and pointed to prior work helping other large exchanges, states CoinDesk,  including Coinbase and OKX, reach UK users without needing their own authorisation.

What the 2027 crypto rulebook signal means

Alongside the FCA’s stricter approach to promotions, the UK government has said it intends to establish a crypto rulebook by 2027.

That announcement has fuelled expectations of a more defined operating environment for exchanges, even as marketing standards remain a key gatekeeper for consumer-facing activity in the near term.

Industry watchers see the arrangement as another test case for how large global crypto platforms re-enter the UK without holding direct regulatory authorisation under evolving financial promotion oversight regimes globally.

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Bitwise files for spot SUI ETF as competition intensifies in crypto fund market

  • The proposed ETF would use Coinbase Custody and include staking and in-kind transactions.
  • Several asset managers are now competing to bring SUI-based ETFs to the US market.
  • Regulatory changes under the current SEC leadership are accelerating altcoin ETF activity.

Crypto asset manager Bitwise has formally filed a Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, seeking approval to launch a spot exchange-traded fund linked to SUI.

The proposal adds fresh momentum to the fast-expanding crypto ETF landscape, where issuers are increasingly targeting altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Rather than focusing on short-term market moves, the filing highlights how fund structures, custody choices, and regulatory positioning are evolving as competition intensifies.

With multiple firms now pursuing similar products, SUI is quickly becoming a key test case for the next phase of crypto ETFs in the US.

The proposed product, named the Bitwise SUI ETF, is designed to track the spot price of SUI, the native token of the Sui Network.

If approved, it would give investors direct exposure to SUI without requiring them to hold the asset themselves, reflecting growing institutional interest in simplified crypto access.

How Bitwise is structuring the ETF

The filing shows that Coinbase Custody has been selected as the custodian for the fund, underlining a continued reliance on established US-based crypto infrastructure.

Bitwise has not yet revealed the ETF’s ticker symbol or intended listing exchange, but the structure clearly focuses on holding spot SUI rather than futures or other derivatives.

One notable element of the proposal is the inclusion of staking. The ETF would be able to stake its SUI holdings, allowing it to earn additional tokens over time.

This approach could potentially enhance returns compared with products that only hold assets passively, although it also introduces additional operational considerations.

The filing also details in-kind creations and redemptions.

This means authorised participants would be able to exchange SUI tokens directly for ETF shares and vice versa, instead of using cash.

This structure is increasingly favoured by issuers as it can improve efficiency and reduce tracking error.

Rising competition around SUI products

Bitwise is not alone in targeting SUI.

Grayscale, 21Shares, and Canary Capital have already submitted filings for similar spot SUI ETFs, signalling a crowded field forming around the asset.

The growing interest follows recent regulatory developments, including the SEC’s approval of a 2x leveraged SUI ETF from 21Shares.

Although no spot SUI ETF has yet launched in the US, these filings suggest that issuers see a clearer regulatory path emerging.

SUI itself launched in 2023 and has climbed into the top tier of digital assets by market capitalisation, currently ranked 31st with a value of about $5 billion.

Bitwise has also integrated SUI into its 10 Crypto Index ETF, reinforcing the firm’s broader commitment to the network.

Market response and regulatory context

SUI’s market price showed little immediate reaction to the filing, trading near $1.40 and remaining more than 12% lower over the past week.

Market participants generally view ETF filings as longer-term signals rather than short-term price drivers.

The timing of the application is significant. Under SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the regulator has moved toward clearer and more standardised ETF listing frameworks.

This shift has already helped products linked to assets such as XRP, DOGE, and SOL advance through the approval process.

As more issuers push forward with altcoin ETFs, SUI’s progress may offer early insight into how far and how fast the US crypto ETF market can broaden.

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Michael Selig confirmed as CFTC chair, ending interim leadership period

  • Michael Selig is confirmed as CFTC chair, ending a long interim period at the US derivatives regulator.
  • Selig signals a narrower enforcement focus as Congress weighs expanding the CFTC’s crypto authority.
  • Leadership change comes as debate intensifies over digital assets and US market structure rules.

After nearly a year of temporary leadership, Michael Selig was confirmed by the US Senate on December 18 and will soon be sworn in as the 15th chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

His appointment brings an end to an extended interim period at the derivatives market regulator and places a familiar figure back at the centre of US market oversight.

Selig’s confirmation comes as policymakers and market participants closely track how the CFTC will position itself amid ongoing debates over digital assets, market structure, and regulatory coordination.

With Congress weighing legislation that could significantly expand the agency’s authority, the timing of the leadership change is drawing heightened attention across traditional and crypto markets.

Return to a familiar regulator

Selig’s professional ties to the CFTC run deep.

He first joined the agency in 2014, serving as a law clerk to then-Commissioner Christopher Giancarlo, who later became chairman.

After leaving the agency, Selig moved into private practice, where he advised trading firms, exchanges, and digital asset companies on compliance with US securities and commodities laws.

Earlier this year, Selig returned to government service as chief counsel to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force.

In that role, he acted as a senior advisor to Chairman Paul Atkins and was involved in inter-agency discussions on supervising digital asset markets, placing him at the intersection of securities and commodities regulation.

Leadership transition at the CFTC

Selig will succeed Caroline Pham, who has served as acting chair for much of 2025.

For several months, Pham was also the CFTC’s only Senate-confirmed commissioner, a situation that underscored the agency’s leadership vacuum during a period of regulatory change.

Under Pham’s tenure, the CFTC continued to operate but with limited long-term direction, as major policy decisions awaited permanent leadership.

Selig’s confirmation restores a Senate-backed chair at a moment when the commission’s mandate could soon broaden.

Enforcement direction and priorities

During his confirmation hearing, Selig signalled support for a more targeted enforcement strategy.

He argued that focusing on minor technical violations can consume agency resources and encourage legitimate firms to move operations offshore, without materially improving market integrity.

At the same time, he emphasised that the CFTC must remain active in pursuing fraud, manipulation, and abusive conduct.

His stated approach aligns closely with policies advanced under Pham, where enforcement efforts were narrowed to prioritise complex fraud cases and retail harm rather than paperwork-based violations.

Over the past year, the CFTC also revised its investigation procedures to provide firms with greater transparency and additional time during enforcement processes, reflecting a shift in regulatory tone.

Crypto oversight and legislative backdrop

On digital assets, Selig is expected to continue efforts to bring crypto-related activity into regulated US markets.

The CFTC has already launched pilot initiatives covering tokenised collateral and listed spot crypto products on regulated exchanges.

Selig has previously supported clearer market structure rules and stronger coordination with the SEC, the Treasury Department, and banking regulators.

His confirmation coincides with congressional debate over bills that could grant the CFTC primary oversight of spot crypto commodity markets, potentially expanding the agency’s role at a critical stage in crypto regulation.

With a full agenda and limited transition time, Selig’s early decisions will be closely watched across financial markets.

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