Bitcoin crash brings El Salvador’s BTC losses to over $61M

Bitcoin price fell below $20,000 on Saturday to see the USD value of El Salvador’ BTC holdings shrink from over $105 million to around $44 million.

El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in June 2021 and went on to buy its first BTC as a nation on 6 September.

That first purchase was for 200 bitcoins for $10,353, 812 at an average price of $51,769.06 per BTC. At the time of writing, that first purchase is down 63.03%, according to a portfolio tracker.

El Salvador bought more Bitcoin, utilizing dips to add to its holdings as BTC climbed to its peak in November. President Nayib Bukele also announced two more purchases in 2022, even as prices declined further off the peak.

El Salvador’s BTC holdings down 58% overall

The last purchase was on 9 May 2022, when El Salvador acquired 500 BTC for $15.3 million at an average cost of $30 744. In total, the country currently holds 2,301 bitcoins acquired at over $105 million for a dollar cost average of $45,908.42.

The value of the total holdings has fallen dramatically over this week, even as BTC/USD plummeted from $30k to $20k.

With Bitcoin price below $20,000, El Salvador’s BTC holdings are now worth about $44 million – down more than 58% overall and currently losing over $61.5 million.

Despite the huge loss, the country’s Finance Minister recently said the fiscal risk was “extremely minimal.”  

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Voyager Digital seals $200M and 15,000 BTC loan deal from Alameda Research

Voyager Digital has secured a loan facility agreement with Alameda Research, in a deal that the brokerage platform says will help it better protect its customer assets amid the current market conditions.

$200 million in cash/USDC and 15,000 BTC

Voyager announced on Friday that it had sealed “a non-binding term sheet” with trading firm Alameda Research, securing a revolving line of credit that offers access to fresh capital should it be needed.

According to the company, the loan facility will be used to provide a safety net around customer assets as the market navigates the current volatility.

The credit facility comes in two parts, with the first being a $200 million loan agreement denominated in cash or the USDC stablecoin. In addition to that, Voyager and Alameda have agreed on a further 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) credit facility. 

The two facilities’ term expires on December 31, 2024 and will attract an annual interest of 5% to be paid on maturity.

Voyager is “well capitalized”

Turbulence in the crypto markets has had a drastic impact on companies and projects, with the recent upheavals for Celsius and 3AC pointing to potential contagion. 

In light of this, the Voyager team provided an asset and risk management update earlier in the week, seeking to assure its customers that all was well.

Apart from stating that it had no assets with Celsius, Voyager CEO and co-founder Steve Ehrlich noted:

“The company is well capitalized and in a good position to weather this market cycle and protect customer assets. It is Voyager’s goal to continue to build secure products and services, as well as build trust and leadership in the cryptocurrency industry.”

The company has over $200 million on its balance sheet, it said on Friday.

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Dogecoin faces a 60% downswing as meme coins trend lower

Dogecoin has accelerated its slide significantly over the past week. The coin is slowly trying to find some momentum, but gains over the last 24 hours have been modest at best. However, DOGE faces a major downside from a longer point of view. The coin could potentially slide by 60% over the coming weeks. Here are some of the things you need to know:

  • DOGE appears to be accelerating downwards to the $0.048 support.

  • A breakdown at this price will trigger a downside towards $0.041.

  • This will represent over 60% in losses from the current price.

Data Source: TradingView 

How DOGE can avoid this sell-off

There are two ways DOGE can avert a sharp decline in the near term. First of all, the coin will need to find buying momentum and push the price well above $0.1. If this happens, we could see a more sustained uptrend that limits the downside by a huge margin. But based on trends in the market right now, we do not think the coin will rise above $0.1. 

Secondly, Dogecoin must hold the $0.048 support. This is relatively doable since the coin is already above this threshold by well over 20%. As long as broader weakness in the market eases, we are likely to see a stronger consolidation above this price. 

But there is still a risk that these two scenarios will not play out. After all, the market has already turned bearish. As such, it is likely that DOGE will fail to keep the $0.048 support and consequently slide 60% from its price.

When will DOGE recover?

A full recovery for Dogecoin will need months. The coin is already way lower from its ATH, and it doesn’t seem like there is enough demand for meme coins to push it up.

But a slight recovery to $0.1 is not far off. For now, the short-term outlook for dogecoin is bearish.

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Avalanche could drop below $10 – Here is why

Avalanche, like many major coins, has had some reprieve from the crash we saw at the start of the week. Although the coin is down 3% over the last 24 hours, it has managed to stabilize. However, the altcoin is not out of the woods yet; in fact, another major sell-off could be on the way. Here is what you need to know:

  • Low trade volumes in crypto could precipitate a liquidity challenge for AVAX

  • The prospects of a global recession and tight monetary policy are major risk factors.

  • AVAX could drop nearly 50% and bottom below $10 in the coming weeks.

Data Source: TradingView 

Avalanche price analysis and prediction

At the moment, Avalanche appears to be in a consolidation phase. However, this does not mean there is likely bullish momentum. In fact, this consolidation is basically a small reprieve from the massive sell-off reported earlier in the week. We expect Avalanche to resume the downtrend owing to weakened demand in crypto and wary investors. 

Also, as trade volume in the market slows, altcoins will likely face liquidity challenges. This may contribute to a major downfall in the near term. At the moment, AVAX is trading at around $16. The coin still has strong support at the $12 mark. 

However, we don’t think bulls have what it takes to hold it. Instead, AVAX will slide down past $12 and settle at around $9. This will represent a 50% drop from the current price. Nonetheless, this thesis will become invalidated if AVAX reclaims $20.

Why is AVAX falling?

Well, it is a combination of many things. For instance, the overall sentiment in crypto has slowed. As such, coins like AVAX are facing major headwinds. 

Also, we have not seen any major rally for AVAX this year. It turns out that 2022 is a year of corrections. As such, the coin could drop below $10 for the first time in 12 months.

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Cardano establishes a strong trading range despite pressure

Before the crypto crash this week, Cardano had shown outstanding upward momentum. The coin at one time even rallied by nearly 50% in less than a week. But as weakness sips through the market, all these incredible gains have now reversed. Despite this, ADA has managed to establish a strong trading range. Here are some highlights:

  • ADA has traded between $0.47 and $0.55 over the last few days

  • This range will likely hold as the broader crypto market slightly recovers

  • Cardano however faces very limited upside to overcome the $0.55 barrier.

Data Source: TradingView 

Where will ADA go from here?

The trading range established by ADA over the past few days represents short-term support and resistance. It is likely that the coin will trade within this range for days before it finds direction. 

However, we do not see a lot of downsides. In fact, if ADA was to lose the $0.47 support, it could still find a lot of resilience at $0.435. This is actually a longer-term support zone for the coin. Also, if there is a period of price consolidation above $0.55, we may see a short-term rally for ADA. 

But it doesn’t seem like the coin has so much room to run. In fact, the best-case scenario for bulls would be to try and reclaim the highs of $0.77. Here, ADA will face major sell-off pressure and will likely retreat even before it attempts to test $1.

When will ADA return above $1?

It seems like yesterday when we were all looking at ADA above $1. The coin was projected to hit at least $5 by the end of the year. However, this is now highly unlikely since ADA would need to grow more than 10x to hit that estimate.

But a return above $1 is not out of the cards. Sentiment will however need to improve drastically over the month ahead for this to happen.

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