Schlagwort: crypto analysis

Key takeaways

• Cardano trades below $0.22 after failing to sustain a move above its 50-day EMA.
• ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.79, approaching its lowest reading in more than a month.
• Negative funding rates indicate increased demand for bearish derivatives exposure.

Cardano recovery stalls below key moving average

Cardano remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below $0.220 after buyers failed to sustain the previous day’s recovery above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average.

The rejection leaves ADA below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, maintaining a bearish near-term outlook. Price is now hovering just above the 100-day EMA around $0.220, placing immediate support within reach.

Weak derivatives positioning and subdued momentum suggest buyers have yet to establish enough strength to reverse the corrective trend.

CoinGlass data showed Cardano’s long-to-short ratio at 0.96 on Thursday, nearing its lowest level in more than a month.

The reading indicates a greater share of short positioning among the accounts measured, reflecting caution about ADA’s recovery prospects.

Funding rates reinforced that picture. Cardano’s rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0025% on Thursday, meaning short-position holders were paying longs.

Together, the readings point to a bearish tilt in derivatives positioning. They do not guarantee further losses, but they provide little confirmation of renewed bullish conviction.

CryptoQuant’s summary data also indicated selling pressure across Cardano markets. The platform identified large whale orders and heating conditions in futures trading, alongside sell-side dominance in both spot and futures markets.

Large orders alone do not establish direction. However, their presence alongside stronger selling activity adds to the cautious backdrop as ADA struggles beneath overhead resistance.

A stronger recovery would require buyers to absorb that supply and sustain price gains beyond nearby technical barriers.

ADA drops below $0.220 as momentum remains weak

Cardano’s daily momentum indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index remains in the low-40s, below the neutral 50 threshold.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains negative, suggesting that bearish pressure may be easing without a confirmed reversal.

The first support to watch is the 100-day EMA near $0.220. A sustained break below that level would bring the $0.210 area into focus.

If selling extends through $0.210, the chart points to a deeper support region around $0.170. That remains a downside scenario dependent on a breakdown of the nearer support levels.

On the upside, the 50-day EMA around 0.228–0.230 forms the first recovery barrier. A sustained move above that zone would ease immediate pressure and shift attention toward horizontal resistance near $0.236, followed by the 200-day EMA around $0.240.

Further resistance lies near $0.250, with $0.300 a more distant level should a broader recovery develop.

For now, ADA’s ability to hold $0.220 remains central to its short-term outlook as bearish derivatives positioning and weak momentum limit recovery attempts.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin traded around $82,800 on Wednesday, maintaining gains from the previous session.
• BTC remains above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a constructive technical backdrop.
• Support lies at $80,769, with deeper levels at $77,862 and $76,090.

Bitcoin stabilizes after bullish daily close

Bitcoin held near $82,800 on Wednesday after a modest recovery the previous day, as easing selling pressure supported hopes of further gains.

Ethereum and XRP also remained steady following bullish daily closes, according to the report. However, the supplied technical analysis focuses on Bitcoin.

BTC continues to trade above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $80,769 and its 200-day EMA at $76,090. Holding those levels preserves a constructive backdrop, although buyers still need stronger momentum to sustain an extended rally.

Bitcoin’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is approaching a crossover above its signal line.

A completed bullish crossover would strengthen the case that downward momentum is fading. For now, the signal remains unconfirmed.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 51, slightly above its neutral midpoint. That reading suggests a modest improvement in momentum without indicating particularly strong buying pressure or overbought conditions.

Together, the indicators point to stabilization rather than a decisive breakout. Continued price gains would provide stronger confirmation that buyers are gaining control.

Bitcoin faces upside resistance at $89,337

The BTC/USD daily chart shows the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $89,337 as an important resistance level if Bitcoin’s recovery extends.

The retracement is drawn between a lower anchor at $57,800 and the upper reference at $97,924.

A sustained move through $89,337 would bring the $97,924 area into focus as the next major target in that framework.

These levels represent conditional technical objectives. Bitcoin would still need follow-through buying to move meaningfully higher from its current position near $83,000.

The first significant support level is the 50-day EMA near $80,769. Holding that average would help preserve the latest recovery structure. 

A sustained break beneath it would weaken the near-term bullish outlook and shift attention toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $77,862.

Below that, the 200-day EMA at $76,090 provides a deeper reference for the broader trend.

Bitcoin’s immediate outlook therefore rests on maintaining support while momentum improves. A confirmed MACD crossover, accompanied by sustained buying, would offer clearer evidence that the recovery can extend toward overhead resistance.

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Key takeaways

• NEAR fell 7% on Tuesday to around $4.70, extending Monday’s decline.
• Bitwise’s NEAR ETF attracted $5.42 million on Monday after three consecutive weeks of inflows.
• Resistance near $5.02 must be reclaimed to strengthen the recovery outlook.

NEAR retreats despite continued ETF buying

NEAR Protocol declined by over 7% on Tuesday, following a similar loss the previous day, as weakening short-term momentum outweighed continued demand through its exchange-traded fund.

The token traded around $4.70 at the time of this report, remaining below a closely grouped resistance area near $5.02.

Bitwise’s NEAR-focused ETF, NRR, recorded $5.42 million in net inflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue data. The buying followed three consecutive weeks of inflows totaling more than $80 million.

The positive flows indicate sustained demand through the fund, although they have not prevented the latest price correction. ETF activity represents one investment channel and does not determine the direction of the broader market.

NEAR’s Q3 2026 report, released Monday, highlighted growth in its multichain transaction infrastructure.

Cumulative volume through NEAR Intents exceeded $32 billion, approximately 45% above the previous quarter’s reported cumulative figure.

The protocol also reported that more than $8 million in fees had been directed toward token buybacks.

Meanwhile, total value locked in its privacy-focused Confidential Intents reached approximately $160 million, an increase of roughly 463%.

These figures point to expanding use of NEAR’s infrastructure. However, network growth and token buybacks do not guarantee an immediate recovery in NEAR’s market price.

Resistance around $5.02 caps recovery attempts

On the four-hour chart, NEAR remains below its 50-period Exponential Moving Average at $5.0179 and a descending resistance trendline near $5.0261.

Together, those levels form the first significant obstacle for buyers seeking to restore short-term momentum.

A sustained breakout above $5.0261 would strengthen the recovery case and bring the September 28 high at $5.5780 into focus. Beyond that, the $6.00 round-number level represents the next upside reference.

Until NEAR clears this resistance cluster, rebounds remain vulnerable to selling. The Relative Strength Index stands near 50 on the daily chart, indicating subdued momentum below its neutral midpoint.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has also crossed marginally beneath its signal line, suggesting that upward pressure is fading.

These readings support a cautious near-term outlook, although they do not establish that the broader upward trend has reversed.

NEAR continues to trade above its 200-period EMA around $4.5513, leaving an important technical support level intact.

If the correction extends, the 200-period EMA near $4.55 provides the first significant support reference.

Below it, horizontal support at $4.4440 marks an area that limited losses on October 8. Holding this zone would support the interpretation of the decline as a correction within the broader uptrend.

A sustained break beneath both levels would weaken that structure and increase the risk of a deeper decline toward $3.9140, the September 19 high.

For now, NEAR’s outlook hinges on whether buyers can defend support and regain the resistance cluster around $5.02, even as ETF inflows and network activity remain constructive.

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Key takeaways

• ADA futures open interest fell to $475.58 million from $549.14 million, reflecting reduced derivatives exposure.
• Positive funding shows a modest bullish tilt among perpetual traders, leaving longs vulnerable if prices fall further.
• ADA remains below key moving averages, with $0.1894 emerging as a potential downside target.

Cardano Stabilizes After Sharp Weekly Decline

Cardano held above $0.2200 on Monday as buyers attempted to steady the price following a roughly 12% decline last week.

ADA has lost more than 10% so far in October, while weakening derivatives activity and subdued large-wallet positioning suggest limited conviction behind a recovery.

The daily chart also remains under pressure after last week’s break below trendline support near $0.2321. With the token trading beneath its key moving averages, sellers retain the near-term advantage.

CoinGlass data shows that Cardano futures open interest declined to $465.87 million on Monday from $549.14 million last week.

That represents a reduction of approximately 14.5% in the notional value of outstanding contracts.

The decline suggests reduced derivatives exposure, though it does not prove that retail traders alone are leaving the market. Falling ADA prices can reduce dollar-denominated open interest, while position closures and liquidations can also contribute.

The funding rate remained positive at 0.0032%, indicating that long positions were paying shorts in the tracked perpetual market.

That modest positive reading suggests some traders are still positioned for a rebound. However, funding alone does not demonstrate excessive leverage. 

A further price decline could nevertheless put vulnerable long positions under pressure and trigger additional forced selling.

Onchain figures suggest large holders have made only modest adjustments to their exposure.

According to Santiment data, wallets holding more than 100 million ADA accounted for 15.99% of circulating supply, slightly higher than 15.95% last week.

Meanwhile, the cohort holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA represented 38.11% of supply, down from 38.27%.

The opposing movements provide a mixed picture rather than a clear accumulation trend. They also do not, by themselves, establish whether tokens were sold, transferred between wallets or moved across holding categories.

Combined with lower futures exposure, the figures offer limited evidence of renewed buying conviction.

Cardano’s technical outlook remains bearish

ADA continues to trade beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average near $0.2290 and its 200-day EMA around $0.2395.

The loss of trendline support near $0.2321 adds to the weak structure, leaving several barriers above the current price.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero with a negative histogram, while the Relative Strength Index hovers around 41.

The RSI reading suggests sellers retain the upper hand, although ADA has not reached the conventional oversold threshold of 30.

Without a recovery through nearby resistance, the latest stabilization remains a pause within the correction rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.

The psychological $0.20 level is an immediate downside reference if selling resumes. Below it, the August 30 low near $0.1894 represents the next structural support. 

A move toward that level would be about 14%–15% downside from the current price area.

On the upside, buyers first need to challenge the 50-day EMA at $0.2290. The former trendline support near $0.2321 then presents another obstacle, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.2395.

A sustained recovery through those levels would help weaken the bearish setup. Until then, Cardano remains exposed to further losses as traders assess whether demand can strengthen around $0.2200.

 

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Key takeaways

• HYPE recovered to $81.88 after falling to approximately $77.59 following hotter-than-expected US producer inflation.
• Ripple Prime introduced institutional RWA perpetual swaps referencing more than 100 Trade.xyz markets on Hyperliquid.
• HYPE faces resistance at $83.10, while support lies around $76.30–$75.70.

HYPE recovers after inflation-driven selloff

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rebounded toward $82 on Friday, recovering from an intraday decline as new institutional trading initiatives drew attention to the platform.

HYPE traded at approximately $81.88 at the time of this report, up 0.8% over the previous 24 hours. Earlier, the token fell to around $77.59 after a stronger-than-expected US inflation reading.

September’s Producer Price Index rose 6.3% year over year, exceeding expectations of 5.3%. The surprise renewed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and weighed on risk-sensitive assets.

Leveraged bullish positions absorbed most of HYPE’s liquidation losses. CoinGlass data showed approximately $7 million in long liquidations, compared with $810,000 in short positions.

Although the rebound restored HYPE above $80, the token remained below important short-term moving averages.

Ripple announced Thursday that Ripple Prime had introduced real-world asset perpetual swaps covering more than 100 reference markets.

The products span equities, equity indices, exchange-traded funds, metals, energy and foreign exchange. Trading and settlement are available around the clock, including weekends.

The swaps reference Trade.xyz perpetual futures listed on Hyperliquid. Ripple Prime acts as the principal counterparty, giving institutional clients access through its brokerage services rather than requiring them to trade directly on the decentralized platform.

The offering expands the connection between institutional brokerage services and Hyperliquid’s derivatives infrastructure. However, the launch does not establish a direct or immediate increase in demand for HYPE itself.

RLUSD collateral and cross-margining support the offering

Eligible clients can use Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral for the new swaps. Ripple Prime also supports cross-margining across eligible asset classes, allowing institutions to manage collateral requirements and portfolio risk across multiple positions. 

Offsetting exposures may reduce margin requirements, depending on the portfolio and applicable rules.

Market maker Virtu is among the institutions already using the products, according to Ripple.

The service is currently offered through Ripple Prime’s CIV BVI license. Ripple plans to expand availability to additional regions but has not provided a timetable.

Separately, EQX Labs announced plans to introduce 11 tokenized US equity and ETF markets on Hyperliquid’s HyperCore infrastructure.

The proposed lineup includes exposure to Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla, alongside ETFs tracking major US markets.

According to EQX, the tokens will trade on Hyperliquid’s public order book and will each be backed by shares held in custody.

These planned products differ from the perpetual derivatives Ripple Prime referenced. Together, the initiatives point to a broader range of traditional-market exposures being developed around Hyperliquid.

HYPE faces resistance at the 50-Day EMA

HYPE’s daily chart retains a slightly bearish tone despite the rebound. The token remains above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average at $76.30 but below the 50-day EMA at $83.10 and the 20-day EMA at $85.40.

That positioning suggests longer-term support remains intact while short-term recovery attempts face overhead resistance.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 43, below its neutral midpoint. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is around 20, indicating weak momentum near oversold territory without confirming a reversal.

Initial resistance sits at $83.10. Above that, the horizontal barrier at $85 and the 20-day EMA at $85.40 form the next resistance area. A sustained recovery through those levels would bring $97.80 into focus.

On the downside, the 100-day EMA at $76.30 and horizontal support at $75.70 form an important defensive zone. Losing that area could expose successive support levels at $67.60, $61.10 and $51.50.

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