Schlagwort: crypto analysis

Key takeaways

• Sui is down 10% on Friday, extending its decline for the fifth consecutive day.
• The technical outlook for SUI is bearish, with a risk of a steeper decline toward $1.00.

Sui (SUI) is down roughly 10% on Friday, continuing a five-day decline this week as retail interest in the token wanes. 

The broader market is shifting focus away from underperforming layer-1 assets, and technical indicators suggest a potential double-digit drop toward $1.00.

Weakness in derivatives signals sell-side dominance

SUI is also losing traction in the derivatives market. According to CoinGlass, SUI futures Open Interest (OI) fell 10.5% over the past 24 hours to $727.97 million, reflecting a reduced notional value of outstanding contracts. 

In the same period, $7.2 million in positions were liquidated, with $7. million coming from long positions—indicating strong sell-side pressure.

Technical outlook: Will SUI drop below $1?

The SUI/USD 4H chart is bearish and efficient as Sui is down by 10% in the last 24 hours. At press time, SUI is trading below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1558 and the lower Bollinger Band at $1.1442, showing short-term bearish bias. 

The token remains above the 200-period EMA at $1.0270, suggesting that the broader recovery structure is still intact despite waning momentum.

Momentum indicators indicate that the bears are still in play. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 46, below the midline, while the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, implying that rebounds may face persistent selling pressure.

If the bearish trend persists, the bulls would encounter the first support at the 200-day EMA at $1.0270 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.9972.

A daily close below this level could see SUI approach the prior cycle low near $0.8815.

However, if the bulls regain control, SUI could rally towards the first resistance level at $1.2171. An extended rally could see SUI hit the upper Bollinger Band near $1.2900, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.2947.

SUI’s technical structure shows deteriorating momentum, and traders should monitor both spot and derivatives markets for signs of further downside or potential relief rallies.

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Key takeaways

• Quant (QNT) extends its rally toward $80, supported by rising whale and retail demand. 
• A breakout above the $80 resistance could set the stage for a potential rise toward $100. 

Quant (QNT) has extended its recent gains towards the $80 mark on Thursday, testing the potential breakout from a long-standing resistance trendline. 

The cryptocurrency’s bullish technical outlook is supported by rising leverage-based activity from large wallet investors, or whales, with a daily close above $80 paving the way for a possible rally toward the $100 target.

Whale and retail demand fuel Quant’s steady recovery

Quant’s steady short-term recovery is being driven by growing demand from both retail and large-wallet investors. 

CryptoQuant data reveals an increase in the average order size of executed orders in the leverage market, indicating heightened whale activity. Additionally, the 90-day cumulative volume difference between buy and sell orders reflects a clear buy dominance, further supporting bullish sentiment.

CoinGlass data shows that QNT futures Open Interest (OI) has surged to $17.61 million, up significantly from $16.96 million on May 1. 

This steady recovery in QNT futures is now approaching the peak of $38.27 million reached on September 21, indicating continued investor interest and positive market sentiment.

Technical outlook: Will Quant reach $100?

The QNT/USD 4-hour chart is bullish as Quant is up by 7% in the last 24 hours. It is currently trading at $78, above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $77.52. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is positive, with the MACD line crossing above its signal and both moving above zero, signaling strong bullish momentum. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 64, indicating firm bullish momentum, though edging closer to overbought territory as price approaches higher resistance levels.

If the rally continues, a decisive close above the descending trendline break level near $77.89 would confirm a breakout from the triangle pattern on the daily chart. 

Such a breakout could pave the way for a rally toward the $88.30 swing high, followed by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $101.14.

However, if the bears regain control of the market, they would encounter initial support at the 50-day EMA near $72.03. 

A deeper pullback would target the 50% retracement level around $68.79, with further support found at the former rising trendline region near $67.86 and the 38.2% retracement near $66.86.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin has dipped below $80,000 after being rejected by the key 200-day EMA supply zone.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $635 million on Wednesday.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Thursday after failing to overcome a key overhead supply area earlier this week. 

The pullback is attributed to fading institutional demand, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) experiencing significant outflows, as well as a surge in traders’ profit-taking activity, increasing selling pressure on the leading cryptocurrency.

Highest single-day ETF outflow in three months signals weakening institutional demand

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has weakened, with spot ETFs recording a massive outflow of $635.23 million on Wednesday, the highest single-day withdrawal since the end of January. 

According to CoinGlass data, this marks the second consecutive day of withdrawals this week. If outflows persist or intensify, Bitcoin’s price correction could continue, further amplifying the bearish pressure.

Profit-taking among Bitcoin holders has surged, further adding to the selling pressure. CryptoQuant’s weekly report highlights that 14,600 BTC were realized in daily profits on May 4, the highest figure since December 10. 

The 37% rally from the April lows has brought Bitcoin holders back into profitable territory, triggering a wave of selling. This kind of behavior typically precedes further price declines, as traders capitalize on their gains.

Bitcoin price forecast: BTC could dip below $79,000

Bitcoin is trading at $79,458 on Thursday, having faced rejection from the overhead supply zone. 

The cryptocurrency has corrected for three consecutive days this week but is still holding above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered just under $76,800. 

Despite this, Bitcoin remains capped below the 200-day EMA at $81,986 and the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437.

While the broader uptrend remains intact, the technical outlook suggests a cautious approach. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-50s, indicating a mild bullish bias, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is still in negative territory, hinting at tentative upside momentum.

If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is found at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $78,962, followed by the 100-day EMA at $76,756 and the 50-day EMA at $76,479. 

If selling accelerates, further support lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $74,487 and the broken upward trendline around $70,171.

On the upside, bulls need to clear the 200-day EMA at $81,986 to ease immediate pressure. Resistance then emerges at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437 and the horizontal barrier near $84,410. 

A daily close above this level would strengthen the case for a renewed push toward the January highs of $97,924.

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Key takeaways

• Pi Network extends losses on Thursday and could dip lower in the near term.
• The technical outlook for PI is mildly bearish as the short-term support is near $0.1687

Pi Network (PI) is edging lower on Thursday, threatening a potential bearish breakout below the $0.1700 mark. 

The rise in selling pressure is likely linked to renewed mainnet migration activity, with over 1 million PI tokens being deposited on centralized exchanges (CEXs), weighing down on the PI token’s price.

CEX deposits surge amid renewed mainnet migration

Pi Network is experiencing increased selling activity as investors transfer their PI tokens to exchanges after completing their Know Your Customer (KYC) verification.

PiScan data reveals that over 36 million PI tokens were migrated to the mainnet in the past four days, coinciding with the 26.20 million PI tokens unlocked from Pi Core Team wallets. 

Simultaneously, Pi-supporting exchanges saw an influx of 1.15 million tokens, indicating that large holders are reducing their exposure amid the option for an exit.

Technical outlook: PI risks deeper correction below $0.1700

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient. At press time, Pi Network is trading around $0.1700, with a bearish near-term outlook. 

The PI token remains well below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.1739 on the 4-hour chart, as well as the 100- and 200-period EMAs, which are clustered between $0.1750 and $0.1767. 

These moving averages, combined with the downward trendline, form a dense resistance zone that limits any upward movement.

The price is approaching the May 12 low of $0.1687, which has served as a base for short-term consolidation. 

The token is trapped within a descending wedge pattern, indicating that the current structure leans bearish. 

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40, slipping below the midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line and its signal line remain marginally below zero, signaling that downside momentum is still in control.

If the bulls regain control, initial resistance lies near the 50-period EMA and the downward trendline break area around $0.1739. 

However, if the selloff persists, immediate support is loosely defined around the $0.1700 region, close to the May 12 low at $0.1687. 

A clear break below this level could open the door to fresh lows on the 4-hour chart, especially as the broader structure remains capped by the overhead moving averages and trendline resistances.

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Key takeaways

• Pi Network (PI) is currently consolidating within a descending wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart.
• The deployment of cross-chain contracts on the BSC and OP testnets is part of the ongoing mainnet upgrades, expanding Pi Network’s capabilities.

PI extends consolidation within descending wedge pattern

Pi Network (PI) is trading in the red on Wednesday, down 1%, continuing its consolidation within a descending wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. 

Despite the current bearish price action, the technical outlook remains mildly bullish. PiChain Global, a key player within the Pi Network ecosystem, has recently deployed cross-chain contracts on the BSC and OP testnets, signaling that ongoing upgrades are bringing new capabilities to the Pi Network ecosystem. 

In an update posted on X, PiChain Global announced the successful deployment of cross-chain smart contracts on two blockchain testnets: BSC (Binance Smart Chain) and Optimism’s OP testnet, built on Ethereum. 

The move highlights the growing cross-chain functionality within Pi Network, expanding its capabilities. PiChain also plans to integrate this functionality into its PCM wallet, while temporarily pausing its Meeta social app due to resource limitations.

This new development is part of the Pi Core Team’s ongoing push for the mainnet upgrade, which has now reached Stellar Protocol v23 on Pi Network’s testnet. 

The mainnet nodes must complete this upgrade by Friday to remain connected to the network, and if successful, the upgrade will unlock similar cross-chain functionality on the mainnet, broadening the utility of the PI token.

PI price forecast: potential bullish breakout from descending wedge 

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient. At press time, Pi Network is consolidating between the $0.1700 mark and the May 9 high of $0.1766 on the 4-hour chart. 

This consolidation is bounded by two key trendlines—an overhead trendline from April 29 and May 6 highs, and a support trendline from April 30 and May 8 lows. 

Short-term momentum is recovering on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, with positive histogram bars contracting toward the zero line. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a steady rise in the mid-range at 46, while the price holds above the key $0.1700 level, signaling a positive divergence. 

If the bulls regain control, immediate resistance is found at the short-term descending trendline around $0.1766. 

A sustained break above this resistance level would help lift the current cap and pave the way for a potential move toward the May 6 high at $0.1881.

However, if the market undergoes a correction, initial support is at the psychological $0.1700 level, followed by the active descending support trendline near $0.1670. 

If the price breaks below this support level, it could trigger a deeper pullback, potentially weakening the broader consolidation structure.

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