Schlagwort: crypto analysis

Key takeaways

• XMR is down 2% and could record further losses in the near term
• The Fed’s hawkishness weighs on the broader crypto market.

Privacy coins remain under pressure amid weak risk appetite

Monero (XMR) continued its downward trajectory on Friday as bearish sentiment persisted across the cryptocurrency market. 

XMR slipped for a third consecutive session, remaining below the $330 level. 

The broader crypto market came under renewed pressure following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first post-meeting press conference on Wednesday.

While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, investors reacted negatively to the central bank’s hawkish tone. 

Policymakers emphasized their commitment to restoring inflation to the long-term 2% target, prioritizing price stability over near-term monetary easing.

Warsh’s comments suggested the Fed remains comfortable maintaining its current policy stance and is not yet considering interest-rate cuts. Market participants have even begun pricing in the possibility of another rate increase, with current expectations implying a 30% probability of a hike at an upcoming policy meeting.

Risk appetite weakened further as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 15 on Thursday from 22 a day earlier, keeping the market firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. The decline highlights growing investor caution and reduced exposure to risk assets.

Monero price outlook: Correction continues below key resistance levels

Monero remains trapped below the Bollinger Bands middle line near $340 and all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

The 50-day EMA sits around $359, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs cluster near $366, creating a significant resistance zone overhead.

Despite the ongoing correction, technical indicators show signs of improving momentum. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) near 65 suggests steady capital inflows. 

However, these signals currently point to corrective rebounds rather than a broader trend reversal as long as XMR remains beneath key resistance levels.

Immediate resistance is located around the Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $340, followed by the 50-day EMA near $359. 

A stronger resistance zone emerges around $367, where the 100-day and 200-day EMAs converge. Beyond that, the upper Bollinger Band near $389 represents the next major hurdle for buyers.

On the downside, support is found near the lower Bollinger Band at approximately $291. A breakdown below this level could accelerate losses and trigger a deeper retracement despite the recent improvement in momentum indicators.

Monero remains vulnerable to further downside as macroeconomic uncertainty and restrictive monetary policy continue to weigh on investor sentiment. 

While technical indicators suggest some underlying buying interest, the privacy coins must reclaim key resistance levels before a more sustained recovery can take shape.

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Key takeaways

• While momentum indicators suggest downside pressure is easing, ETH remains trapped below multiple key moving averages. 
• Until buyers reclaim resistance levels above $1,800, the broader technical outlook remains cautious, with support around $1,741 likely to play a crucial role in determining the next major move.

ETH Open Interest falls to a multi-week low

Ethereum (ETH) derivatives markets remain subdued following weeks of price weakness, reflecting a cautious stance among leveraged traders.

After ETH fell below the $1,800 level, futures open interest dropped sharply, reaching 13.64 million ETH on Sunday, its lowest level since early May. 

Open interest saw a modest recovery on Monday after Ethereum rebounded above $1,700, but overall participation remains significantly lower than recent highs.

Open interest represents the total value of outstanding futures contracts. Since May 28, Ethereum futures markets have witnessed a decline of roughly 2 million ETH in open interest, highlighting a strong reduction in leveraged exposure and growing risk-off sentiment.

Funding rate data paints a similar picture of caution. Over the past two weeks, Ethereum funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative territory, signaling a lack of clear conviction from either bulls or bears.

Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets. Positive rates indicate bullish positioning, while negative rates suggest stronger bearish sentiment.

The market’s tone shifted notably after the June 5 correction, which pushed funding rates into negative territory following nearly a month of positive readings.

Although ETH has recovered modestly since then, bullish traders have struggled to regain control.

Spot-market indicators offer little evidence of aggressive accumulation. Ethereum exchange reserves have declined modestly over the past two days, reversing part of the increase recorded last week. 

While falling exchange balances can sometimes indicate accumulation, the move remains too small to signal strong demand.

Ethereum price analysis: ETH trapped below key resistance

Ethereum continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure despite recent stabilization.

On the 4-hour chart, ETH remains below its 20-day EMA near $1,794, the 50-day EMA around $1,955, and the 100-day EMA near $2,108

The clustering of these moving averages above current price levels indicates that upside attempts continue to face significant resistance.

Although the broader trend remains bearish, some technical indicators suggest downside momentum may be easing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed toward the mid-50s, indicating selling pressure is weakening but not yet signaling a bullish reversal.

For Ethereum to build a stronger recovery, bulls must reclaim several important resistance zones.

Immediate resistance at $1,794 could pave the way for an extended rally towards the $1,806 and $1,909 psychological levels.

A sustained move above these levels would significantly improve Ethereum’s outlook.

On the downside, Ethereum faces several important support areas. If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is seen at the $1,524 level, with another demand zone at $1,405. 

If selling pressure intensifies and these levels fail to hold, ETH could decline toward the next significant support area near $1,156.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin remains vulnerable as hawkish Federal Reserve guidance, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent ETF demand continue to dampen investor sentiment.
• With BTC trading below key moving averages and lacking strong buying momentum, the near-term bias remains bearish. 

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the U.S. Federal Reserve and mixed institutional demand signals.

The leading cryptocurrency continues to struggle for momentum, with risk appetite fading across financial markets after the Fed signaled a tougher policy outlook despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve maintains rates but adopts hawkish tone

The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While the decision itself was widely expected, markets were focused on the Fed’s forward guidance and updated economic projections.

The central bank removed language suggesting a bias toward further monetary easing and instead signaled support for maintaining higher rates for longer. Policymakers now project the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% forecast issued in March.

The revised outlook prompted traders to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering little support for a sustained recovery.

According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, following:

The inconsistent flow pattern, coupled with a slight bearish bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Should ETF outflows continue or accelerate in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Bitcoin price outlook: Relief bounce shows signs of weakness

Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by renewed buying demand.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure and remains below several key moving averages.

BTC is currently trading below the 50-day EMA at $70,042, the 100-day EMA at $72,839, and the 200-day EMA at $78,174.

The failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader downtrend and highlights persistent overhead selling pressure.

Additionally, the previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has now turned into a major resistance zone.

Technical indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that recent rebounds may be corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

If Bitcoin attempts a rebound, traders will likely focus on several major resistance zones. The first major resistance at $64,004 could pave the way for higher hurdles at $70,042 – 50-day EMA

A move above these levels would be required to significantly improve the technical outlook.

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Key takeaways

• XLM is up 12% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the broader crypto market.
• The rally comes as Open Interest hits $261 million. 

XLM extends weekly gains

Stellar’s XLM attracted renewed buying interest on Tuesday after posting strong gains at the start of the week. XLM surged over 11%, bringing the asset closer to key resistance levels that could determine the next phase of its price action.

Supporting the rally are improving derivatives and on-chain metrics, including rising open interest, increasing trading volumes, and positive funding rates, all of which point to growing market participation and strengthening bullish sentiment.

Data from CoinGlass shows a notable increase in derivatives activity for both cryptocurrencies.

XLM’s open interest climbed to $261 million. Rising open interest is generally viewed as a sign that new capital is entering the market and that traders are increasing exposure to the assets.

The increase suggests investors are positioning for further upside as momentum improves across the broader crypto market.

Funding rates have also shifted in favor of bulls. CoinGlass data shows that XLM’s funding rate reached 0.0061% on Tuesday.

Positive funding rates indicate that long-position holders are willing to pay a premium to maintain bullish bets, often reflecting growing confidence in higher prices.

On-chain activity provides additional support for the bullish outlook. According to Santiment, Stellar’s trading volume is climbing to $879.25 million from just $153 million over the past few days.

The sharp rise in activity suggests renewed investor interest in the XLM ecosystem as prices recover from recent lows.

Stellar technical outlook: Momentum continues to improve

XLM is trading near $0.227 on Tuesday, maintaining a constructive technical setup after rebounding from last week’s correction.

The token remains above a key support zone formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.200 and the 200-day EMA around $0.199. 

Additional support comes from the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.185 and $0.182, respectively.

The RSI is currently near 71, indicating healthy momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to trend higher, signaling that bearish pressure is gradually weakening.

If the rally persists, immediate resistance is seen at the $0.237 level, with an additional supply zone at the $0.260 region. 

However, if the bearish trend returns, immediate support is located at the $0.200 psychological level.

A daily candle break below this level could expose further demand zones at $0.185 and $0.177 in the near term. 

A breakout above $0.237 could pave the way for a stronger move higher, while holding above the $0.200 support zone remains crucial to preserving the current bullish structure.

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Key takeaways

• BitMine bought 76,881 ETH, raising its holdings to 5.62 million ETH.
• The company now controls about 4.66% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.
• ETH is attempting to hold above $1,800 while facing resistance near $1,900. 

BitMine adds nearly 77,000 ETH to its reserve

Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies significantly expanded its Ether holdings last week, purchasing 76,881 ETH during a period of weakness in the broader crypto market.

The acquisition increased the company’s total Ethereum holdings to 5.62 million ETH, valued at approximately $10.35 billion at current prices. 

According to BitMine, the position now represents about 4.66% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, moving the firm closer to its stated goal of controlling 5% of the available ETH supply.

Despite lowering its average acquisition cost through continued accumulation during the recent market downturn, BitMine still reports unrealized losses exceeding $9 billion on its Ethereum position.

In addition to its substantial Ethereum holdings, BitMine disclosed ownership of 204 Bitcoin as well as significant equity investments.

The company currently holds 204 BTC, a $180 million stake in Beast Industries, $88 million worth of Eightco Holdings shares, and $502 million in cash and marketable securities.

The sizable cash position was largely funded through a recently completed preferred stock offering.

BitMine recently closed an offering of 3.5 million shares of its 9.5% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock at $80 per share.

After underwriting fees, commissions, and related expenses, the company generated approximately $273.8 million in net proceeds.

Chairman Thomas Lee described the offering as a strategic move to diversify the company’s balance sheet while maintaining its aggressive Ethereum accumulation strategy.

“The Series A Preferred Stock offering is good balance sheet diversification for BitMine,” Lee said in a statement. He added that projected annual staking rewards of roughly $219 million are expected to provide recurring cash flow to support dividend obligations associated with the preferred shares.

Ethereum technical outlook: Bulls target a break above $1,800

The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bullish as Ethereum is currently attempting to stabilize after rebounding sharply from levels below $1,600.

While short-term momentum indicators have improved, the asset remains constrained by several layers of overhead resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the 67 level, while the Stochastic oscillator continues to move higher, signaling improving momentum but not yet confirming a sustained bullish trend reversal.

If the rally persists, immediate resistance is located near $1,909. Additional supply zones are positioned around $2,018 and $2,107, followed by further resistance at $2,211.

Should bullish momentum strengthen, Ethereum could eventually target higher resistance levels near $2,388 and $2,746.

However, if the bears regain control, traders are closely monitoring whether ETH can maintain daily closes above $1,806. The next major support lies near $1,741.

A breakdown below that level could expose Ethereum to deeper support zones around $1,524 and $1,404, while $1,155 remains a key long-term support level if broader market conditions deteriorate.

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