Analysis: Institutional BTC adoption is a ‘cyclical wave’, not a linear increase, says Saphira Group’s Dyment

  • Fund manager Jeff Dyment argues fears of fading institutional Bitcoin demand are overblown and miss the “bigger picture.”
  • Institutional BTC buying is a “cyclical wave,” not a straight line, with 51 new corporate treasuries in H1 2025 alone.
  • Options market data shows whales are building upside exposure, buying September $130K BTC calls.

In a market often fixated on short-term price swings, fund manager Jeff Dyment of Saphira Group is urging investors to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

His thesis is simple yet powerful: recent data points suggesting that institutional Bitcoin buying is losing steam are missing the forest for the trees.

In a note shared with CoinDesk, Dyment argues that fears of dwindling institutional demand for Bitcoin are largely overblown, rooted in what he sees as narrow, short-term snapshots of the market.

He acknowledges the recent cooling in ETF and corporate purchases – for instance, Michael Saylor’s Strategy acquired just 16,000 BTC last month, a sharp decrease from its 171,000 BTC haul in December.

However, Dyment insists this is not a sign of decline, but rather a natural ebb in what he describes as a “cyclical wave” of institutional adoption.

“Institutional flows often come in waves rather than a steady linear increase,” Dyment wrote.

Short-term demand fluctuations in the spot market are minor ripples on what is, in fact, a rising tide of institutional engagement.

To support his argument, Dyment points to compelling data.

In the first half of 2025 alone, 51 new corporate Bitcoin treasuries were established, a figure equal to the total number established from 2018 to 2022 combined.

This represents a staggering 375% year-over-year increase in corporate Bitcoin buying.

Publicly traded companies now collectively hold 848,902 BTC, which accounts for approximately 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

In the second quarter of 2025 alone, these companies added 131,000 BTC to their balance sheets.

The ETF factor: a tsunami of regulated capital

Dyment also highlights the explosive growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs as further, undeniable evidence of deepening institutional participation.

BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which has already become the largest in the world, now holds an incredible 699,000 BTC, representing more than 3.3% of the total supply, after becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history.

Collectively, U.S. spot ETFs have captured approximately 1.25 million BTC, or roughly 6% of the total supply, in just 18 months since their launch, Dyment points out in his note.

This rapid accumulation by regulated investment vehicles underscores a structural shift in how capital is engaging with Bitcoin.

Whales Position for Upside as Market Awaits a Spark

Dyment’s thesis finds echoes in the derivatives market. In a recent note from QCP Capital, the Singapore-based fund observed that large “whale” investors are continuing to build exposure to upside risk.

They are reportedly snapping up September $130,000 BTC call options and holding significant positions in 115,000/140,000 call spreads, all bets on a future price increase.

“Vols remain pinned near historical lows, but a decisive breach of the $110K resistance could spark a renewed volatility bid,” QCP wrote in a Monday note.

So, while market bears may point to stagnant spot flows and the nearly empty mempool (the queue of unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions) as signs of market fatigue, Dyment argues that these are merely surface-level ripples.

Underneath, he contends, the institutional tide is rising. Wall Street, with its trillions upon trillions of dollars in regulated capital, is hungry for crypto exposure. It’s just not going to arrive all at once in a straight line.

Broader market movements provide context

The aformentioned analysis comes amidst a backdrop of volatile but resilient price action for Bitcoin and mixed signals from traditional markets.

  • BTC: Bitcoin fell 1.02% from July 6 at 22:00 to July 7 at 21:00, testing key support at $107,519.64 amid heavy selling, before staging a V-shaped recovery off $107,800. On-chain data showed strong support clusters at $106,738 and $98,566 held by 1.68 million addresses, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis bot.

  • ETH: Ethereum rose 1.67% amid volatile trading, swinging nearly 3% between $2,529 and $2,604, as support at $2,530 held firm. Institutional inflows topped $1.1 billion, and above-average volume marked both the surge and subsequent sell-off.

  • Gold: Gold dipped on a stronger dollar but rebounded on tariff-driven safe-haven demand, with central bank buying and de-dollarization fueling forecasts of a rally toward $4,000.

  • S&P 500: Stocks fell on Monday as President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from seven countries, sending the S&P 500 down 0.79% to 6,229.98.

  • Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose despite President Trump announcing steep U.S. tariffs on 14 trading partners, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.36% as duties of up to 40% were outlined for countries including South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand.

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XRP could rally higher on steady capital inflow; check forecast

Key takeaways

  • Ripple’s XRP is down less than 1% in the last 24 hours and could rally higher soon.
  • Institutional demand for XRP continues to grow, with XRP digital asset products recording $10.6 million in weekly inflows.

The cryptocurrency market is having a bearish start to the week despite the gains recorded on Monday. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $108k while Ether continues to struggle to surge above $2,600.

Ripple’s XRP is also consolidating as bulls defend the $2.2 support level. The coin could rally higher amid strong institutional demand.

Steady capital flow keeps XRP’s price high

XRP, the native coin of the Ripple ecosystem, is down by less than 1% in the last 24 hours as major cryptocurrencies underperform. Despite the current consolidation, analysts believe XRP could break out soon and head towards new highs.

The rally could be fueled by growing institutional demand for XRP. Data obtained from CoinShares revealed that fund inflows into XRP-related financial products reached $10.6 million, accelerating year-to-date inflows to $335 million. The cumulative total assets under management (AUM) for XRP average around $1.4 billion.

Interest in XRP comes from various sectors of the market, including futures contracts’ Open Interest (OI). XRP’s OI has increased by approximately 25% to $4.69 billion since dropping to $3.54 billion on June 23. The increase suggests that traders have a bullish bias and a betting on a future price surge.

XRP’s technical outlook remains bullish

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart is bearish as the broader crypto market consolidates. However, the technical indicators are strong, suggesting a bullish bias for Ripple’s native cryptocurrency. 

The bulls would have to surpass the key resistance levels at $2.33 and $2.47 in the near term to enable XRP to rally toward the $3 psychological region for the first time since January 2025. 

XRP/USD 4H Chart

The RSI and MACD indicators are both positive, suggesting that traders could be gaining exposure to XRP. In case XRP surpasses the $2.47 resistance level, it would need to overcome the May high of $2.65 to enable it to attempt the $3 mark.

However, a reversal is not ruled out, with the market sentiment still shaky thanks to renewed tariff talks. If there is a pullback, XRP could likely test the June support level of $1.90. The bulls would likely defend the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at $2.22, the 50-day EMA at $2.21, and the 200-day EMA at $2.11.

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CoreWeave to acquire Core Scientific in a $9B all-stock deal

  • CoreWeave has finalised a deal to acquire Core Scientific for $9 billion.
  • The deal adds 1.3 GW of power capacity for AI and HPC expansion.
  • Under the agreement, CORZ holders will get 0.1235 CoreWeave shares per CORZ share.

CoreWeave has finalized a landmark $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Bitcoin mining giant Core Scientific, in a move that underscores the company’s ambition to dominate AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.

The deal, announced on Monday, marks one of the largest takeovers in the AI infrastructure space this year and follows over a year of pursuit, with previous bids rejected for being undervalued.

CoreWeave, a fast-growing cloud provider specializing in AI workloads, is leveraging the acquisition to significantly expand its power capacity and reduce long-term operational costs.

The deal locks in $9B value with a major premium

CoreWeave’s journey to acquire Core Scientific began with a $1 billion bid in early 2024, which was firmly rejected as undervalued.

Since then, Core Scientific’s market capitalization has more than tripled, thanks to strong operational performance and renewed investor interest in crypto infrastructure.

Now, with this $9 billion agreement, CoreWeave not only gets a foothold in crypto-hosting infrastructure but also gains critical assets to fuel its broader AI ambitions.

Under the terms of the agreement, Core Scientific shareholders will receive 0.1235 shares of newly issued CoreWeave Class A common stock for every share of CORZ they own.

This exchange values Core Scientific at approximately $20.40 per share, which represents a 66% premium over its closing price of $12.30 on June 25.

The merger, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025 pending shareholder and regulatory approvals, will result in Core Scientific shareholders owning less than 10% of the combined company.

The stock-based nature of the transaction signals CoreWeave’s long-term confidence in its equity value and future growth strategy.

In the months ahead, attention will turn to how the company integrates these assets, repositions them for high-performance computing, and navigates potential legal challenges from shareholders.

Power capacity takes centre stage

One of the most strategic aspects of the acquisition is the scale of infrastructure CoreWeave will inherit.

The company will assume ownership of approximately 1.3 gigawatts of gross power across Core Scientific’s US data centre footprint.

In addition, the company has identified over 1 gigawatt of potential expansion capacity, giving it unprecedented leverage in scaling AI and HPC operations.

This development is critical, especially as global demand for AI computing power continues to soar and data centre capacity becomes a key constraint.

CoreWeave plans to repurpose much of this infrastructure for AI and HPC tasks, while also leaving open the option to divest some of Core Scientific’s crypto-mining assets in the medium term.

Cost savings and vertical integration boost CoreWeave

Beyond infrastructure, CoreWeave expects the merger to unlock over $500 million in annual run-rate cost savings by the end of 2027.

These savings will come primarily from eliminating more than $10 billion in expected future lease obligations over the next 12 years.

By owning its data centre assets outright, CoreWeave can streamline operations, avoid lease-related risks, and reallocate capital toward more strategic growth investments.

This vertical integration also strengthens the company’s ability to host large-scale deployments of next-generation AI hardware, such as Nvidia’s GB300 NVL72 systems.

Market reaction

While the acquisition is seen as a transformative move for CoreWeave, the immediate market reaction was mixed.

Core Scientific’s shares fell by over 15% following the news, suggesting that some investors felt the premium offered did not fully capture the company’s recent growth.

Core Scientific’s earnings more than doubled in the first quarter of 2025 to $580 million, though its revenue was dampened by the effects of the recent Bitcoin halving.

At the time of the acquisition, the company was the 33rd largest corporate Bitcoin (BTC) holder, with 977 BTC on its balance sheet.

However, CoreWeave has made it clear that this acquisition is not about returning to crypto mining but about reallocating infrastructure for AI and HPC.

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