Kategorie: Crypto News

On-chain analysis is fascinating to me. Exclusive to the blockchain, it doesn’t exist outside of crypto. But in jumping on-chain, we can often get intriguing insights into market sentiment, and specific indicators have even been predictive of future price action.  

Of course, given Bitcoin’s short history of just over a decade, it’s not yet clear which indicators are merely coincidences and which carry actual value. But that’s part of the fun, no?

Percentage of Supply in Profit

I came across an exciting indicator this week on Twitter, compiled by @OnChainCollege, who is a great follow if you’re into on-chain analysis. He looks at the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit to gauge how overheated (or cooled off) the market is. Historically, this has signalled the start and end of the bear markets quite well for Bitcoin.

And these bands are very close to crossing at the moment.

To explain what the metric is, for those unaware, the percentage of supply in profit refers to the percentage of existing bitcoins where the current price is higher than the price at which those bitcoins were purchased. When the percentage of supply in profit rises above 50%, this is a top signal. When the percentage drops below 50%, this is a bottom signal. Or so the theory goes.

The graph below shows this, going back to 2011. Note that @OnChainCollege graphed it by placing the percentage of supply in loss (red) on the chart too, as well as the percentage of supply in profit (green). These two lines crossing would be the indicator.

Historical Accuracy

As you can see, this has crossed only four times previously. The most recent was March 2020, when the onset of COVID rattled the markets. In my view, this was the scariest time in crypto history – a true existential event (to be honest, it felt like it was an existential crisis for the world as a whole).

To play devil’s advocate, you could probably write this instance off as a black swan event, and overlook the impressive bounce that followed the crossover here – fine. But in looking at the other cases, the prediction ability holds in all three cases: 2019, 2014 and 2011.  

That’s all well and good. But what is the market saying now? Well, the percentage of supply in loss has not crossed the percentage in profit – yet. If the pattern holds, that means there may still be more pain to give before the bottom is in.

Caveats to On-Chain Analysis

Obviously, any on-chain analysis comes with the caveat that not only is the sample space small, but the data may be non-structural, with material changes to the landscape. Today, we are seeing rampant inflation, a hawkish Fed and a scary geopolitical climate. This has triggered the worst start to a year for stocks since 1939.

These macro headwinds mean that, for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, it is swimming upstream against serious and consistent bearish sentiment – April was the worst month for stocks since October 2008. Additionally, Bitcoin has almost nothing in common today with the niche Internet money it was back in 2011, or even 2014. Today, it takes its place amid bonafide asset classes, with institutional money pouring in and a seat at the macro table.

All this means that there is far from a guarantee that history repeats itself here, should these bands cross again. Nonetheless, it’s a fascinating trend to keep an eye on and a neat use of on-chain analysis from an analyst who is a personal favourite of mine. It will be fun to track going forward.

The post Bitcoin bottom not in yet, according to on-chain analysis appeared first on Coin Journal.

The Tron price has been a bit volatile in the past few days as worries about its newly launched USDD stablecoin that has a close resemblance to Terra USD. The coin is trading at $0.069, which is about 25% below the highest level last week. Its total market cap has declined to about $6.82 billion.

USDD concerns remain

The biggest story in the cryptocurrency this month was the collapse of Terra USD, the third-biggest stablecoin in the world. At its peak, it was the third-biggest stablecoin in the world after Tether and USD Coin.

Another big story was the launch of USDD Coin by Tron. USDD is a stablecoin that closely resembled Tron USD in that it is not backed by US dollars. Instead, it is an algorithmic stablecoin that automatically rebalances when it moves below or above $1. 

USDD has been one of the most successful stablecoin launches ever. In less than three weeks, its total market cap has jumped to over $310 million. This makes it one of the biggest stablecoins in the world and the 147th biggest coin globally.

Read more on how to buy Terra Luna.

The TRX price has declined because of worries of the USDD stablecoin. With algorithmic stablecoins like DEI, Neutrino, and Terra USD losing their peg, there are concerns that USDD also could do the same. For now, however, the coin’s peg has held relatively well and has ranged between $0.998 and $1.01.

Tron price has also declined because of the weak performance of its DeFi platform. Like all platforms, its total value locked has crashed hard in the past few days. It has dropped slightly to about $4.2 billion, making it the 4th biggest chains in the world.

Tron price prediction

Turning to the four-hour chart, the TRX price jumped to a high of $0.092 as demand for the USDD coin rose. In the past few sessions, however, the coin has retreated sharply and moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The coin remains above the ascending trendline that is shown in black.

Tron’s Stochastic Oscillator has moved slightly above the neutral level at 50. Therefore, the outlook for the Tron price is a bit bearish, with the next key support level being at $0.065. A move above the resistance at $0.0072 will invalidate the bearish view.

The post Tron price prediction: USDD concerns remain appeared first on Coin Journal.