Ethereum drops below $1000 as bears aim for $800

Most cryptocurrencies are now fully in a bear market. Ethereum fell below $1000 for the first time in years as weakness in the market continues. While we did see some slight recovery in 24-hour intraday trading, the overall trend will continue downwards. Here are some of the highlights:

  • ETH bearish run will continue as the coin tries to find support at $800

  • $1000 was seen as a crucial support zone for ETH

  • It is unlikely the coin will reclaim $1000 in the coming days.

Data Source: TradingView 

Are steep losses coming for ETH?

Over the past week alone, Ethereum has seen a 35% drop in value. This is one of the worst weeks for the coin in 2022 and sadly, we have not seen the last of it. At the time of writing, the token was hovering above $950. However, we don’t think the price action will stay there for long.

Instead, ETH will slide as bears take full control. It may however try to find support at $800. In fact, looking at the chart, the $800 mark has often proven very tough to crack. Bulls will hope to keep ETH above this as they await sentiment to improve in the market. 

But despite this, there are still several fundamental risks that the broader crypto market has to deal with. First, tightening monetary policy means that the era of cheap credit is over. As money is sipped out of the economy, we may see lower flows of capital towards risk assets, including crypto.

When will the bear market end?

The crypto bear market started off at the start of 2022. There were periods when analysts felt that perhaps most coins had bottomed, but it seems more weakness is still coming. 

ETH could take another 3 months of high volatile trading before it establishes a sustained bull run. But for now, the key to watch is how long it stays above $800. If this support is lost, then we may see massive losses again for ETH.

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Bitcoin crash brings El Salvador’s BTC losses to over $61M

Bitcoin price fell below $20,000 on Saturday to see the USD value of El Salvador’ BTC holdings shrink from over $105 million to around $44 million.

El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in June 2021 and went on to buy its first BTC as a nation on 6 September.

That first purchase was for 200 bitcoins for $10,353, 812 at an average price of $51,769.06 per BTC. At the time of writing, that first purchase is down 63.03%, according to a portfolio tracker.

El Salvador bought more Bitcoin, utilizing dips to add to its holdings as BTC climbed to its peak in November. President Nayib Bukele also announced two more purchases in 2022, even as prices declined further off the peak.

El Salvador’s BTC holdings down 58% overall

The last purchase was on 9 May 2022, when El Salvador acquired 500 BTC for $15.3 million at an average cost of $30 744. In total, the country currently holds 2,301 bitcoins acquired at over $105 million for a dollar cost average of $45,908.42.

The value of the total holdings has fallen dramatically over this week, even as BTC/USD plummeted from $30k to $20k.

With Bitcoin price below $20,000, El Salvador’s BTC holdings are now worth about $44 million – down more than 58% overall and currently losing over $61.5 million.

Despite the huge loss, the country’s Finance Minister recently said the fiscal risk was “extremely minimal.”  

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Voyager Digital seals $200M and 15,000 BTC loan deal from Alameda Research

Voyager Digital has secured a loan facility agreement with Alameda Research, in a deal that the brokerage platform says will help it better protect its customer assets amid the current market conditions.

$200 million in cash/USDC and 15,000 BTC

Voyager announced on Friday that it had sealed “a non-binding term sheet” with trading firm Alameda Research, securing a revolving line of credit that offers access to fresh capital should it be needed.

According to the company, the loan facility will be used to provide a safety net around customer assets as the market navigates the current volatility.

The credit facility comes in two parts, with the first being a $200 million loan agreement denominated in cash or the USDC stablecoin. In addition to that, Voyager and Alameda have agreed on a further 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) credit facility. 

The two facilities’ term expires on December 31, 2024 and will attract an annual interest of 5% to be paid on maturity.

Voyager is “well capitalized”

Turbulence in the crypto markets has had a drastic impact on companies and projects, with the recent upheavals for Celsius and 3AC pointing to potential contagion. 

In light of this, the Voyager team provided an asset and risk management update earlier in the week, seeking to assure its customers that all was well.

Apart from stating that it had no assets with Celsius, Voyager CEO and co-founder Steve Ehrlich noted:

“The company is well capitalized and in a good position to weather this market cycle and protect customer assets. It is Voyager’s goal to continue to build secure products and services, as well as build trust and leadership in the cryptocurrency industry.”

The company has over $200 million on its balance sheet, it said on Friday.

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Dogecoin faces a 60% downswing as meme coins trend lower

Dogecoin has accelerated its slide significantly over the past week. The coin is slowly trying to find some momentum, but gains over the last 24 hours have been modest at best. However, DOGE faces a major downside from a longer point of view. The coin could potentially slide by 60% over the coming weeks. Here are some of the things you need to know:

  • DOGE appears to be accelerating downwards to the $0.048 support.

  • A breakdown at this price will trigger a downside towards $0.041.

  • This will represent over 60% in losses from the current price.

Data Source: TradingView 

How DOGE can avoid this sell-off

There are two ways DOGE can avert a sharp decline in the near term. First of all, the coin will need to find buying momentum and push the price well above $0.1. If this happens, we could see a more sustained uptrend that limits the downside by a huge margin. But based on trends in the market right now, we do not think the coin will rise above $0.1. 

Secondly, Dogecoin must hold the $0.048 support. This is relatively doable since the coin is already above this threshold by well over 20%. As long as broader weakness in the market eases, we are likely to see a stronger consolidation above this price. 

But there is still a risk that these two scenarios will not play out. After all, the market has already turned bearish. As such, it is likely that DOGE will fail to keep the $0.048 support and consequently slide 60% from its price.

When will DOGE recover?

A full recovery for Dogecoin will need months. The coin is already way lower from its ATH, and it doesn’t seem like there is enough demand for meme coins to push it up.

But a slight recovery to $0.1 is not far off. For now, the short-term outlook for dogecoin is bearish.

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Waves plots major comeback after facing selling pressure

Waves has been a delightful surprise in crypto over the past six months. The coin has seen rally after rally albeit it has pulled back several times. However, over the last two weeks, the coin has seen a major sell-off, pushing closer to its May lows in the process. But could Waves plot a decisive comeback? Here are some important points:

  • Waves peaked at around $11.5 at the start of June after a major bull run

  • The coin has however retreated sharply and is now trading at around $5

  • However, Waves is now within a decent demand zone

Data Source: TradingView 

How retesting major support helps Waves

As noted above, the sharp fall we have seen for Waves has pushed it towards major support of around $4.21. In fact, despite the massive sell-off we saw in crypto over the past week, the coin managed to hold this support level. With this in mind, we may now start to see some potential accumulation around this price. 

This will then trigger a trend reversal and push Waves further up in the near term. Also, looking at the momentum indicators, the coin has now gone towards the oversold threshold. This could suggest that the risk of a major decline is relatively lower.

It is likely that Waves will follow the trend in the broader crypto market for the week. After that, the coin may start to find its own directional momentum and could easily outperform major coins as it has over the past 6 months.

Should you buy Waves

One thing we have learned about waves over the last few months is that its highly volatile. So, it may be a good bet for short-term trades. For now, just watch the accumulation around the $4.23 support. 

If this continues for several days, it could mean that Waves is about to break out. Buy in and exit at around $7 to avoid major risk.

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