Bitcoin maintains its price above $21k as the market slowly recovers

The cryptocurrency is recovering after a poor start to the day, with most coins still in the red zone.

The cryptocurrency market has had a poor start to the day. The market was down by more than 2% earlier today but is slowly recovering and is only down by 1.25% at the time of this analysis. 

The total cryptocurrency market cap stands above $950 billion. The bulls could look to push this past the $1 trillion mark in the coming days if last week’s momentum can be repeated.

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is down by 1.3% in the last 24 hours. The coin dropped below the $21k psychological level a few hours ago but has bounced back and now trades above $21,100.

The bulls have been able to keep Bitcoin above the $20k mark over the past few days. It dropped below $18k earlier this month but has maintained its value above $20k since then.

Key levels to watch

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is neutral as Bitcoin has slightly underperformed over the past 24 hours.

The MACD line is around the neutral zone, indicating that Bitcoin is neither bullish nor bearish at the moment. The 14-day relative strength index of 51 shows that Bitcoin is no longer in the oversold region. However, it is also some way off from entering the overbought territory.

If the bulls continue to push harder, BTC could cross the first major resistance level at $21,519 before the end of the day. However, it would need the support of the broader market to move past the $22,899 resistance level for the first time in a week.

The broader market is still bearish, and this could see BTC lose its $20,500 support level in the coming hours. A drop below $20,500 could push Bitcoin below the $20k level for the second time in less than a week.

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Bitcoin is a commodity, says SEC’s Gary Gensler

There is no precise regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States at the moment, but regulators are focusing their attention on the industry.

Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), has pointed out that he believes Bitcoin is the only security. He made this statement during an interview with CNBC on Monday.

When asked about the regulatory efforts by the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Gensler said most cryptocurrencies fall under securities. He added that he believes only Bitcoin is a commodity. Gensler said;

“This is a highly speculative asset class. We’ve known this for a long time. The ups and downs of this speculative asset class. When people invest in bitcoin and hundreds of other crypto tokens, they hope for a return, just like when they invest in other financial assets. Many cryptocurrencies have the key attributes of securities, which means they fall under the SEC. Some, like bitcoin, and that’s the only one I’m going to say, are commodities.”

Gensler pointed out that there needs to be a collaboration between the SEC, the CFTC and the banking regulator to ensure that cryptocurrency investors are adequately protected. 

He complained that most tokens currently available in the cryptocurrency market are non-compliant with the financial regulators in place. 

The SEC chair was also asked about stablecoins. Stablecoins have become a hot topic within the financial ecosystem. The recent collapse of the UST stablecoin has seen regulators in various parts of the world turn their attention to stablecoins.

Gensler pointed out that work needs to be done around stablecoins. He added that banking regulators need to ensure that the investing public is protected from stablecoins. He stated that;

“There’s a lot of risk in crypto, and there’s also a lot of risk in classic securities markets. In the U.S, we have market regulators like the CFTC and the SEC to help protect the public against fraud and manipulation in the markets.”

Bitcoin has dropped below $21k after losing more than 1% of its value in the last 24 hours.

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Highlights June 28: Chiliz rallies on Ronaldo partnership with Binance

The crypto market was in the red this morning, with the majority of top 10 cryptos registering losses. 

Top cryptos

The flagship crypto had lost approx. 2% at the time of writing, trading above $20,000. Ethereum was also down around 2%, Cardano was around 3% lower, and XRP registered losses of around 4%.

Solana is currently down around 6%. The blockchain had a harrowing escape with one of its protocols, Solend, almost facing liquidation. It was saved in the nick of time – by none other than Binance. Dogecoin is down 7%, reversing recent gains. 

Cryptos outside the top 10 are deeply immersed in the all-pervasive bearish trend. The biggest loss was for Polygon and Uniswap, each down 9%. 

Top movers

Outside the top 20, the tendency was also bearish, with most coins losing 3-5% of their value. Notable standouts include XDC Network and Zilliqa, which lost 10% resp. 6%. Stacks saw an end to its bull run and has shed 18% of its value so far today. 

On what seems to be a bad day for privacy tokens, Zcash lost 7%, and Monero lost 6%.

Of the bigger coins by market cap just outside the top 20, Cosmos is down 7%, and NEAR Protocol’s token NEAR has lost 8%.   

The winners

The day wasn’t without its winners. ApeCoin is up 7% on validation from rap royalty, and Tezos gained 9% on news of positive NFT developments. USDD, Tron’s stablecoin, is stabilizing, although it’s still a cause for concern to investors. 

Chiliz is up 9% so far today and is nearing a weekly breakout, according to specialists. Cristiano Ronaldo’s partnership with Binance for NFTs seems to be having a positive impact on Chiliz, too, as many football teams have partnered with Socios.  

TerraClassicUSD, Terra’s renamed stablecoin, added 86% to its value today, bringing its weekly gains to an impressive 472%. 

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Analyst: ‘main market-native risk to crypto is contagion’

While Bitcoin (BTC) remains perched above $20,000 amid the crypto winter, digital asset market analyst Marcus Sotiriou says the main risk for the market is the contagion linked to the crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and crypto lender Celsius Network.

For 3AC, today’s notice of default from Voyager Digital all but confirms the demise of the hedge fund, whose problems go back to the collapse of cryptocurrency Terra Luna in May.

Multiple companies exposed to 3AC

Crypto brokerage Voyager’s exposure to 3AC is via a loan of over $675 million – in $350 million of USDC and 15,250 BTC. Three Arrows is unable to repay the loan and hence Voyager’s attempt to explore legal means of getting the funds repaid.

And it’s not just Voyager, the rot affects multiple crypto firms that have had exposure to the crypto hedge fund, whose not-so-good investment practices could see it sink with others. Sotiriou says the contagion could be deeper. This is what the crypto market currently faces.

“As every major lender has been severely impacted by the demise of Three Arrows Capital, including BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager and Genesis, it is clear that the main market-native risk to crypto is contagion,” he said in emailed comments.

Together, these firms could see billions of dollars worth of investments go up in flames.

Notably, though, FTX founder and CEO, billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried is emerging as a ‘lender of last resort’ with his multiple bailout credit facilities. SBF noted last week that the key reason to help some of these firms is to “prevent contagion.” But he notes some may have to be left to die.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum price levels to watch

The crypto market is coming off one of its worst months as June draws towards a close, with the crypto market capitalization once again moving closer to the $1 trillion mark thanks to fresh resilience among buyers.

Bitcoin and Ether, the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap, currently trade around $20,850 and $1,190 respectively. The leading crypto assets have an intraday high of $21,469 and $1,245 and both have managed to stay above the key support levels established over the week.

But where do the two cryptocurrencies go from here? What levels should investors watch on the downside?

Analyst says the 200-week moving average is key

According to Bloomberg analyst Joanna Ossinger, the key price levels are at the 200-week moving average. For Bitcoin, that is currently around the $22,000 level, while for Ether, it’s near the $1,100 mark.

However, the “round levels of $20,000 for Bitcoin and $1,000 for Ether are still a big deal,” she said during Monday’s Bloomberg Markets and Finance show. 

These levels provide the critical support zones for BTC and ETH respectively in case of fresh selling. If BTC/USD and ETH/USD hold above these zones, then buyers could be looking at new momentum above their 200-week moving averages.

On the downside, crypto analyst Rekt Capital says BTC could drop to prices near $16,000.

For Ether, il Capo says a drop to $700-$800 is possible.

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