Is Bitcoin undervalued below $20K? A technical outlook and what top analyst think

Someone would have been mistaken to think that Bitcoin (BTC/USD) could approach the end of the year at just $20,000. However, as the clock ticks, the reality is increasingly getting confirmed. Notwithstanding that, many analysts expected that Bitcoin would click $100,000 by the end of the year. It wasn’t bad maths, though, considering a height of $68 in November last year. So, what went wrong?

Of course, it has been a tough year for all markets – cryptocurrencies and stocks alike. Issues ranging from economic tightening, recession risks, and the Ukrainian war have been cited. Stocks are trading at significantly depressed levels, while crypto has shown a direct correlation. If it makes sense that stock markets will come back, then it is an absolute genuine expectation of crypto recovery too. The question is, when?

Perhaps, it would be premature to think that recovery will happen soon as risks remain. However, popular analyst Will Clemente says markets are staring at significant bargains on Bitcoin at $20K. Clemente relies on multiple on-chain metrics to argue the case. 

According to the analyst, there is a huge institutional demand for Bitcoin at below $20,000 on Coinbase. The analyst says regulatory compliance has been attractive to institutional holdings on Coinbase. He notes clear bids on Bitcoin from the $18,500 price down to the $11,000 level. The same confluence, he says, is being observed in other venues. 

Technical indicators supporting BTC attractiveness?

eToro

eToro is a global social investment brokerage company which offers over 75 cryptocurrencies to invest in. It offers crypto trading commission-free and users on the platform have the option to manually invest or socially invest. eToro even has a unique CopyTrader system which allows users to automatically copy the trades of popular investors.

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Skilling

Skilling is a Scandinavian based cryptocurrency broker which has a desktop website as well as apps for iOS and Android devices. It supports over 50 cryptocurrencies and it has a demo account to allow users to gain familiarity with the platform. Skilling has no hidden fees, it is an officially regulated broker and it supports a wide range of payment methods.

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Source – TradingView

Bitcoin’s daily chart turns heads for technical readers. The price formed multiple bottoms at $19,000, signalling potential bear exhaustion. An RSI reading of 50.33 suggests that buyers and sellers are square at the moment. That was amid the high inflation numbers last week that forced a flash crash in BTC. The cryptocurrency price, however, is showing a limited upside. 

Is Bitcoin undervalued below $20K?

A large accumulation by institutional investors suggests they see value in BTC at the current price. Coupled with multiple bottoms at $19,000, the price could be undervalued. Potentially, Bitcoin could recover from the current level. Further declines could be minimal and long-term holders should find satisfaction in buying the $20K or $19K dip.

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BlockFills adds support for cash-settled crypto CFDs

BlockFills has partnered with Basis Capital Markets, an FCA-regulated affiliate, to offer both spot crypto assets and cash-settled contracts for difference (CFD).

BlockFills, one of the crypto industry’s fastest growing trading and financial technology providers, is looking to bring more investors into the market via its integration of digital assets CFDs (“contracts for differences”).

BlockFills adds cash-settled CFDs via front-end Phoenix

In an announcement on Monday, BlockFills said it would be offering the CFD product via its Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solution Phoenix. The premier front-end platform that previously only supported spot crypto trading, is targeted for institutional investors.

According to the fintech firm, Phoenix will now support both spot crypto assets and cash-settled CFDs or the so-called perpetual futures.

Nick Hammer, the co-founder and CEO of the Chicago-based company, noted in a statement that the integration is key to a market that has long sought “a trading solution that combines deep liquidity in cash-settled crypto derivatives with a superior front end.” 

“The appeal of trading in volatile markets without the complexity of physical settlement has already generated large amounts of interest in our offering. We expect that trend to continue,” Hammer commented via a press release.

To offer the new product, BlockFills has partnered with Basis Capital Markets, the company’s FCA-regulated London-based affiliate. The institutional-focused platform will help bring the perpetual futures product to non-US institutions around the world.

The company says qualified clients will have access to deep crypto CFD liquidity, available 24/7 and with prices across multiple fiat currencies, including the US dollar, Euro, British Pound and Japanese yen.

BlockFills launched in 2018 and currently offers its digital asset technology to institutional clients in more than 50 countries. In February 2022, as CoinJournal reported, BlockFills and Nexo partnered in a deal aimed at extending prime brokerage services to leading cryptocurrency miners.

In June, the company announced the listing of CME Group crypto derivatives products.

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Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried changes tune on political donations

Sam Bankman-Fried, a leading crypto personality and founder of FTX crypto exchange, had previously suggested he would spend over $100 million and up to $1 billion on political donations.

Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, who’s the founder of major cryptocurrency exchange FTX, is not going to splash hundreds of millions of dollars on political donations.

This comes after the crypto billionaire looks to have spent about $40 million in the current election cycle – the midterms set for November.

Bankman-Fried makes U-turn on campaign spending

According to Politico’s financial newsletter Morning Money, the FTX chief has changed tune on how much he is going to spend. 

The publication quotes Bankman-Fried as saying that his earlier comments about donating $100 million and up to $1 billion in the lead up to the 2024 US election was a huge slip on his part.

In May, Bankman-Fried said he was open to spending heavily into the US midterms – only weeks away now – and that he would put more into super political action committees and other campaign vehicles starting with the current election cycle.

But speaking to MM in a recent podcast, he noted the intention was to always reach a given limit despite widespread belief that the 30-year-old billionaire would go full blast as the campaigns heat up.

Explaining his U-turn, he said his $1 billion quote was “dumb” on his part. “I think my messaging was sort of sloppy and inconsistent in some ways,” he added in a quote MM cited on Friday.

According to Morning Money, Bankman-Fried’s flipping on this one doesn’t augur well for Democrats, the biggest beneficiaries of the crypto billionaire’s donations.

Indeed, the FTX founder has spent about $40 million on PACs and other campaign contributions in 2022, most of which has reportedly been to the Democratic Party. In 2020, Bankman-Fried was among the largest single political donors for Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden.

As CoinJournal recently covered, Bankman-Fried is open to moving his crypto company to the US once registration with the US Securities Exchange Commission is secured.

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Majority of Bitcoin addresses now underwater

Bitcoin has been one of the fastest-accelerating asset classes in history.

Trading at fractions of a penny 14 years ago, it ran all the way up to close to $69,000 last year.

It is against this context of outrageous gains which shows how remarkable it is that most of the Bitcoin supply is now loss-making. Comparing the current price of Bitcoin to the price at which coins within each address last moved, only 49.4% of addresses are in profit.

 

Aside from a couple of brief visits below 50% in September, this marks the first time since the COVID-panic of March 2020 that the majority of Bitcoin addresses have been in the red.

Human emotion

Perhaps there is a lesson in FOMO here somewhere.

It is stunning how much money poured into the crypto markets during the pandemic, with cryptocurrency constantly residing in media coverage, Zoom chatrooms and mainstream consciousness, that the bulk of the network is now underwater.

Zooming out further to Bitcoin’s inception in 2010, shows how the price really ramped up in latter years – as well as the number of addresses in profit plummeting thereafter when the music stopped playing.  

 

This doesn’t really show us anything we don’t know already, but I nonetheless thought it underlined quite how brutal this bear market has been. In looking back at the 2018 bear market, the bottom was hit when the addresses in profit dipped below 40%.

In March 2020, although an extreme outlier month given it was when COVID truly arrived, we dipped below 45%.

In that context, we have a bit more to go here. But what exactly is that context? I actually think that metrics from previous crypto winters here are largely irrelevant. Crypto has evolved too much to be compared to those days anymore, when liquidity was so scarce and Bitcoin was confined to faraway corners of the Internet. It was not a mainstream financial asset, and so I am hesitant to draw too much from studying these time periods.

Secondly, the previous cycles did not occur in conjunction with a bear market across all financial assets. The stock market has printed unstoppable gains since 2009, which was the year Satoshi Nakamoto essentially invented crypto when he published the Bitcoin whitepaper.

Let me be very clear, therefore: crypto has never existed while there has been a wider market bear, or – dare I say it – recession. With that in mind, comparisons to previous cycles need to be made prudently. This is not a case of simply waiting to inevitably bounce back.

Maybe that is exactly what will happen. Who knows – but my point is that such blind optimism is misplaced. This is an unprecedented environment for crypto.

And more addresses than not being loss-making shows quite how far we have fallen.

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Is Injective Protocol (INJ) cheap ahead of Project X Launch?

Injective Protocol price has been in a bullish trend in the past few weeks as investors wait for the upcoming Project X. It also rose as the market focused on the growing total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem. INJ rose to a high of $2.22, which was the highest level since August 11. Its market cap has risen to over $153 million.

Project X launch coming up

Injective Protocol is a leading blockchain project that is aimed for the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) industry. Built on top of the Cosmos ecosystem, the company is backed by companies like Binance, Pantera, and Jump Crypto.

Injective Protocol aims to be a better alternative to Ethereum in terms of its optimization to DeFi. Some of its features are its cross-chain interoperability, intuitive developer experience, low fees, and is highly environmentally friendly.

INJ price has risen sharply in the past few days as investors focus on the upcoming Project X launch. Project X is the next-generation DeFi protocol that is made up of two key components. First, it has an automated strategy vault for marketing and passive yield generation. 

As such, it will help users provide passive liquidity and access trading strategies that were inaccessible to everyday users. These vaults will act as an Automated Market Maker (AMM) without any impermanent loss risk.

Second, Project X will introduce a one-click launchpad for fundraising and listings. This launchpad will allow any developer to permissionless fundraise for a project and instantly list it on Injective exchange dApps in just a single click.

INJ price has also risen because of the rising total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem. According to DeFi Llama, the TVL in its ecosystem has risen from $35 million in June to over $103 million.

INJ price prediction

The daily chart shows that the Injective Protocol price has been in a bullish trend in the past few months. In this period, it has moved above the ascending trendline shown in green. It moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above the neutral point.

Therefore, the INJ price will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at $3. A move below the support level at $2 will invalidate the bullish view.

How to buy Injective Protocol

Binance

Binance is one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. It is better suited to more experienced investors and it offers a large number of cryptocurrencies to choose from, at over 600. Binance is also known for having low trading fees and a multiple of trading options that its users can benefit from, such as; peer-to-peer trading, margin trading and spot trading.

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KuCoin

Kucoin is a cryptocurrency exchange which offers over 200 cryptocurrencies. Kucoin has a wide range of services, such as; a built-in peer-to-peer exchange, spot and margin trading, bank level security and a wide range of accepted payment methods. Users can benefit from a beginner-friendly interface and relatively low fees.

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