Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Ethereum traded sideways as mixed on-chain activity reflected uncertainty among investors.
• Whale wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH accumulated a net 130,000 ETH over the past week.
• Smaller wallet cohorts collectively reduced their holdings by approximately 360,000 ETH.

Ethereum (ETH) continued trading sideways on Tuesday as whale accumulation was offset by selling among smaller wallet cohorts and subdued institutional demand.

On-chain indicators reflect mixed sentiment, with larger investors returning to accumulation while other holders reduce their exposure near break-even prices.

Ethereum whales accumulate 130,000 ETH

Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH added a net 130,000 ETH over the past week. The increase marked the cohort’s first significant inflow in almost three weeks.

The renewed whale accumulation suggests that some large investors view Ethereum’s current price range as an opportunity to increase their holdings.

However, selling among smaller investors outweighed those purchases, limiting ETH’s ability to establish a clear upward trend.

Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH reduced their combined balance by approximately 230,000 ETH after remaining relatively stable during the previous two weeks.

Investors holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH also sold roughly 130,000 ETH. This cohort has steadily reduced its Ethereum holdings throughout the year.

Together, the two groups recorded net outflows of approximately 360,000 ETH over the past week—nearly three times the amount accumulated by whale wallets.

Ethereum’s Spent Output Profit Ratio hovered between 0.98 and 1.01 during the past week.

SOPR measures whether recently transferred assets were moved at a profit or loss. A reading near one indicates that most investors sold close to their acquisition price.

The data suggests that many holders may be exiting Ethereum positions once prices return to break-even levels rather than waiting for a sustained recovery.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s moderately hawkish position may be contributing to the cautious sentiment across financial markets.

Ethereum’s Exchange Netflow remains negative, meaning more ETH is still leaving exchanges than entering them. However, the indicator has risen from approximately -34,000 ETH to -4,000 ETH since mid-July.

Negative exchange flows are typically viewed as constructive because withdrawals reduce the amount of ETH immediately available for sale. The movement toward zero suggests that this bullish spot-market pressure is weakening, although only gradually.

The slowdown comes amid reports that the wider cryptocurrency market is experiencing some of its lowest trading volumes since November 2023. Weak activity indicates that investors remain reluctant to take a strong directional position.

Net Realized Losses also increased on Monday, suggesting that most ETH moved at the start of the week was transferred at a loss.ins Weak

Institutional demand for Ethereum remains subdued. US spot ETH exchange-traded funds attracted $27.42 million in net inflows last week.

However, the products returned to negative territory on Monday, recording combined net outflows of $11.42 million.

The reversal highlights inconsistent institutional demand and provides limited support for a sustained ETH price recovery.

Ethereum trapped between key moving averages

Ethereum recorded $17.77 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, including $11.77 million in short positions.

On the daily chart, ETH remains trapped between the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $1,851 and the 20-day EMA at $1,869. This narrow range reinforces the neutral short-term outlook.

The 100-day EMA at $1,931 and a previously broken ascending trend line near $1,948 present additional resistance.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 51, reflecting balanced momentum between buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator near 29 suggests momentum is stabilizing following the recent pullback rather than developing a decisive trend.

A daily close above the 20-day EMA at $1,869 could allow ETH to challenge the 100-day EMA at $1,931 and the former trend-line support near $1,948.

Further buying pressure could bring resistance at $1,961 into focus. A sustained breakout above this area would expose higher targets at $2,172 and $2,431.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of $1,851, followed by the horizontal level at $1,809.

A decisive break below $1,809 would weaken the neutral structure and could send ETH toward $1,701. More substantial selling pressure could expose the deeper support level at $1,507.

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Key takeaways

• Dogecoin is trading near $0.070 after declining 3.5% last week.
• DOGE’s long-to-short ratio rose to a one-month high of 1.25, signaling bullish positioning.
• Funding rates remain positive at 0.0074%, indicating stronger demand for long positions.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is holding steady near $0.070 at the time of writing on Tuesday after falling 3.5% last week.

Although the broader technical trend remains bearish, improving derivatives data and bullish divergences across key momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure may be easing. This setup could support a short-term recovery if buyers defend the current support zone.

Derivatives data supports a bullish DOGE outlook

Dogecoin derivatives traders are showing signs of growing optimism. The DOGE long-to-short ratio climbed to 1.25 on Tuesday, its highest level in more than a month, according to CoinGlass. 

A reading above 1 indicates that long positions outnumber shorts, suggesting more traders expect the price to rise.

Dogecoin’s funding rate also supports this bullish outlook. The rate turned positive on July 24 and stood at 0.0074% on Tuesday.

Positive funding rates mean traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions, typically reflecting stronger demand for bullish exposure.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Bullish divergence emerges

Dogecoin is trading near $0.070 on Tuesday but remains below its major moving averages, maintaining a bearish near-term structure.

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages are located at $0.075, $0.083, and $0.100, respectively. These levels are expected to act as resistance during any recovery attempt.

However, momentum indicators suggest bearish pressure is beginning to fade. DOGE formed a lower price low on August 1 while the daily Relative Strength Index registered a higher low. This bullish divergence indicates that selling momentum is weakening despite the decline in price.

The Awesome Oscillator reinforces this signal. Its recent lows have been rising while DOGE continues to trade near its price lows, suggesting that downside momentum is losing strength.

Immediate support is located at the horizontal level of $0.070. If DOGE loses this level, the yearly low at $0.067 would become the next key support. A decisive daily close below $0.067 could trigger further losses toward the psychological level of $0.065.

The 50-day EMA at $0.075 represents the first major resistance level. Above it, DOGE could encounter selling pressure around the descending trendline breakout area near $0.080, followed by the 100-day EMA at $0.083 and horizontal resistance at $0.088.

A stronger recovery would require Dogecoin to reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.100 and the major horizontal barrier at $0.102. Moving above these levels would help ease the prevailing bearish outlook.

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Key takeaways

• AAVE is holding above its 50-day EMA at $90.80 as its near-term recovery continues.
• Deposits in Aave V3 on Monad increased by more than $500 million over the past month.
• Aave V4 deposits reached a record high above $350 million.

Aave (AAVE) is extending its mild recovery on Tuesday, trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $90.80.

The recovery comes amid increased adoption of Aave’s lending protocols. Aave V3’s deployment on the Monad Layer 1 blockchain attracted more than $500 million in deposits over the past month, alongside more than $215 million in active loans.

Despite the rise in protocol activity, weak derivatives data and bearish momentum indicators continue to cloud AAVE’s price outlook.

Aave V4 deposits reach record high

Deposits in Aave V4 have surpassed $350 million, establishing a new record after increasing by more than $100 million over the past 30 days.

The growth suggests rising adoption and may be partly driven by an attractive USDC borrowing offer. Holders of cbBTC, WBTC, WETH and wstETH can reportedly access a borrowing rate of negative 0.2%.

The increase in deposits across Aave V3 on Monad and Aave V4 highlights growing use of the protocol, even as demand for the AAVE token remains subdued among retail traders.

AAVE is losing momentum in the derivatives market despite the growth in protocol deposits.

Futures open interest declined by more than 6% over the previous 24 hours to $302.15 million, according to CoinGlass. The drop reflects a contraction in the value of outstanding futures contracts and suggests traders are reducing their exposure.

AAVE’s funding rate also fell below zero to negative 0.0046%. Negative funding indicates a bearish tilt, with short-position holders paying traders holding long positions.

Meanwhile, the 24-hour long-to-short ratio declined to 0.9372, showing that active short positions outnumber longs and reinforcing the cautious market outlook.

AAVE technical outlook: Could the price fall to $70?

AAVE is hovering above $90 at the time of writing on Tuesday, maintaining a mildly constructive near-term position above its 50-day EMA at $90.80.

However, the token remains well below its 200-day EMA at $112.75, suggesting that its broader recovery potential remains limited.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator continues to decline below its signal line, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 49 and is trending lower while AAVE’s price forms a modest upward trend. This bearish divergence suggests that buying momentum is weakening despite the recent price recovery.

The 50-day EMA at $90.80 is the key immediate support level. A decisive daily close below this moving average could accelerate selling pressure and trigger a roughly 20% decline toward the June 18 low of $70.65.

The psychological $100 level represents AAVE’s first major resistance. This area sits close to the May 10 high of $103.51, creating a broader resistance zone between $100 and $103.51.

A sustained break above this region would strengthen the bullish case and could allow AAVE to target the 200-day EMA at $112.75.

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Key takeaways

• Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading below $0.070 after dropping 5% in the previous session.
• Risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions has reduced demand for speculative assets like meme coins.
• DOGE futures open interest has declined, while trading volume has surged 76%, indicating increased retail activity.

Dogecoin (DOGE) remained under pressure on Friday, trading below $0.070 after suffering a 5% decline in the previous trading session.

The world’s largest memecoin has weakened alongside the broader cryptocurrency market as investors reduce exposure to speculative assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions and deteriorating market sentiment.

Geopolitical uncertainty weighs on memecoins

Dogecoin has historically been one of the most sentiment-driven cryptocurrencies, with its price closely tied to retail investor enthusiasm and broader market risk appetite.

Recent geopolitical developments, including escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, have pushed investors toward a more cautious stance.

The decline in market confidence is reflected in CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index, which dropped to 37 on Friday from 40 earlier in the week, signaling that sentiment is shifting further toward fear.

As speculative demand fades, meme coins such as DOGE have experienced stronger selling pressure than many larger cryptocurrencies.

Dogecoin’s derivatives market presents a mixed picture. According to CoinGlass, DOGE futures open interest declined to approximately $1.10 billion, indicating a slight reduction in outstanding leveraged positions.

However, futures trading volume surged 76% to around $1.38 billion, suggesting retail traders remain highly active despite the recent price decline.

The increase in trading activity alongside falling prices points to heightened volatility rather than renewed bullish conviction.

Additional derivatives indicators continue to favor sellers. DOGE’s perpetual futures funding rate slipped to approximately -0.0016%, indicating that short sellers are paying long-position holders.

Negative funding rates generally reflect bearish market expectations and growing demand for short positions.

DOGE remains below key technical levels

From a technical perspective, Dogecoin continues to trade within a well-established downtrend.

The meme coin remains below both the 50-day EMA at $0.0788 and the 200-day EMA at $0.1032

Remaining beneath these indicators keeps the short-term and medium-term outlook tilted in favor of sellers.

Momentum indicators show bearish conditions persist, although DOGE is approaching oversold territory.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 31, indicating selling pressure remains strong, and the asset is nearing levels where buyers may begin looking for value.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is testing its signal line, suggesting bearish momentum may continue building if sellers maintain control.

The next important support level lies at $0.0641. A daily close below this level could accelerate losses and trigger another wave of selling.

On the upside, buyers must overcome several resistance levels before sentiment can improve:

• $0.0700 – Immediate resistance
• $0.0777 – Secondary resistance
• $0.0788 – 50-day EMA

Together, these levels form a significant resistance zone that bulls must reclaim to signal a potential trend reversal.

Dogecoin remains vulnerable as weakening market sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pressure speculative assets.

Unless broader market sentiment improves and DOGE reclaims the $0.070–$0.079 resistance zone, the meme coin could remain on course to test support near $0.0641 in the coming sessions.

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Key takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) is trading below $0.168 after being rejected at the 50-day EMA.
• Derivatives data presents mixed signals, with the long-to-short ratio remaining bullish while funding rates have turned negative.
• Large Cardano whales have accumulated approximately 120 million ADA since Monday.

Cardano (ADA) extended its losses on Friday, trading below $0.168 after buyers failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) earlier in the week.

Although some large investors continue accumulating ADA, mixed derivatives data and subdued technical indicators suggest the market remains uncertain about the cryptocurrency’s next major move.

Derivatives data reflects divided trader sentiment

Cardano’s derivatives market is sending conflicting signals. According to CoinGlass data, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stood at 1.07 on Friday. 

A reading above one indicates that more traders are positioning for price gains than declines, reflecting a modest bullish bias among leveraged traders.

However, other derivatives metrics tell a different story. Cardano’s perpetual futures funding rates flipped into negative territory on Thursday and remained at approximately -0.014 on Friday.

Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying long-position holders, typically signaling increased bearish sentiment and expectations of further downside.

The contrast between bullish positioning and negative funding highlights growing uncertainty among traders.

On-chain data suggests larger investors have continued buying despite recent price weakness.

According to Santiment, wallets holding 1 million to 10 million ADA and 10 million to 100 million ADA have accumulated approximately 120 million ADA since Monday.

Meanwhile, wallets containing 100,000 to 1 million ADA have shown relatively little activity.

The selective accumulation by larger holders may indicate confidence in Cardano’s longer-term outlook, although the buying has not yet been strong enough to trigger a broader shift in market sentiment.

ADA remains below major moving averages

From a technical standpoint, Cardano continues to trade within a broader bearish structure.

ADA remains below the 50-day EMA ($0.176), the 100-day EMA ($0.202), and the 200-day EMA ($0.267)

The inability to reclaim these levels suggests sellers remain in control of the medium-term trend.

Technical momentum indicators point to a market lacking clear direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 48, reflecting balanced buying and selling pressure without a strong trend.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly above the zero line, suggesting that although occasional recovery attempts continue, bullish momentum remains relatively weak.

Adding to the technical challenge, a previously broken long-term downtrend line near $0.197 has now become a significant resistance level.

For bullish momentum to strengthen, ADA must first overcome several nearby resistance levels, including $0.176 (50-day EMA) and $0.197 (former long-term trendline resistance).

A sustained move above these barriers would improve Cardano’s short-term outlook.

On the downside, traders are watching:

• $0.150 – Immediate horizontal support
• $0.138 – Key Fibonacci support

A break below $0.138 could expose ADA to fresh lows and reinforce the broader bearish trend.

Cardano continues to face selling pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-day EMA, while mixed derivatives signals reflect uncertainty among market participants.

For now, ADA’s ability to hold above $0.150 while reclaiming the $0.173-$0.176 resistance zone will likely determine whether the token can build a stronger recovery or extend its recent decline.

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