Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

• Cardano is set for the Vasil hard fork on September 22

• ADA has surged by more than 12% in the past one week

• The token faces immediate resistance, but the hard fork is a major bull trigger

Cardano ADA/USD blockchain will undergo the long-awaited hard fork upgrade on September 22. A tweet by the development team on September 2 pointed out that testing all core components was successful. The Vasil upgrade will grow Cardano’s network capacity and reduce transaction costs.

Cardano hard fork comes after several delays, which developers attributed to software bugs. With these issues now ironed out, investors could be looking at Vasil as a critical event. That would be bullish for the native token, which has largely been dented by the market sentiment.

Cardano faces immediate resistance at $0.5 amid weekly gains.

Source – TradingView

From a technical perspective, Cardano is bullish after settling at the $0.44 support. The token has turned bullish ahead of the Vasil upgrade. However, market sentiment remains subdued, adding some breaks to ADA. 

$0.5 is the level to watch as ADA turns bullish. The MACD indicator has turned bullish in line with the price surge. Already, the level of activity on Cardano is rising ahead of the hard fork. In August, the number of on-chain transactions on the network rose 4.49% to 49.1 million. It suggests that investors are finding Cardano attractive, a milestone that will boost ADA price.

Concluding thoughts

Cardano is witnessing a surge in activity ahead of the Vasil upgrade. The upgrade, expected on September 22, is a potential price trigger. ADA price could face resistance at $0.5 even as the overall crypto sentiment remains weak. Investors can buy after a breakout or take advantage of a potential retracement. ADA is a hold for investors looking to lock value.

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Flow price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few weeks as cryptocurrencies recoil. The coin has crashed to a low of $1.8750, which was about 50% below the highest level in August, giving it a market cap of $1.9 billion.

Flow growth continues

Flow is a leading blockchain project that seeks to become the best platform for developers to build quality applications. It is a proof-of-stake (PoS) platform that is known for fast speeds and low costs of transactions. 

Flow is also known for its high-profile partnerships. For example, it is the blockchain partner for organisations like the NBA, UFC, NFL, LaLiga, Samsung, and Ubisoft among others. According to the developers, there are over 8,000 builders in its ecosystem. It also has over 13 million account wallets and over 2 million transacting wallets.

Flow has seen strong growth in the past few months. In particular,  the network has seen strong growth of its NFTs, especially now that Instagram adopted the network. According to CryptoSlam, the total volume of NFT sales in its ecosystem was over $15.8 million. That was an improvement from the previous two months’ $11 million.

Flow has also done well in decentralized finance (DeFi). According to its website, the total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem has risen to over $3.7 million. This growth was helped by Increment Finance, which is a platform that enables people to deposit, earn, borrow, and trade digital assets.

The recent weakness of Flow is mostly in line with the performance of digital currencies.The prices of most coins like BTC and ETH has been in a strong downward trend as the US dollar index continues rising. 

Flow price forecast

The four-hour chart shows that Flow has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few weeks. Along the way, the coin has managed to move below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved below the oversold level. It has moved slightly above the important support level at $1.6731. 

Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key level to watch will be at $1.50. A move above the resistance level to watch will be at $2.20.

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Ravencoin is up by 9% in the last 24 hours, making it the best performer amongst the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

RVN, the native token of the Ravencoin blockchain, is the best performer amongst the top 100 cryptocurrencies in the last 24 hours. It has added 9% to its value so far today, outperforming the broader market in the process. 

The cryptocurrency market is starting the week in a positive fashion, with the market up by less than 1% over the last 24 hours. The total crypto market cap remains below $1 trillion, despite today’s positive performance.

Bitcoin is still trading below $20k after losing more than 1% of its value in the last seven days. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading in the red zone today. Ether has maintained its position above $1,500 and is up by less than 1% on Monday.

Ravencoin’s positive performance comes after a cold storage wallet was revealed for the RVN coin. The Ice Wallet Storage will soon launch and will support the RVN coin.

Cold storage hardware wallet coming soon only to Ravencoin $RVN.
Designed for Ravencoin & Ravencoin Assets. i#
This is a huge deal for Ravencoin.
It’s a freaking hardware wallet man! 💥@IceWalletCold https://t.co/jbwQHwShTc pic.twitter.com/etUz6N2kjf

— Leon Ravencoin 🅁🅅🄽 ₿ (@leon_texas) September 4, 2022

Key levels to watch

The RVN/USDT 4-hour chart is positive, as Ravencoin has been performing well over the past 24 hours. The technical indicators show that RVN is outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market.

The MACD line is within the positive region, indicating bullish momentum for Ravencoin. The bullish momentum comes as the broader market is recovering from its recent bearish slump.

The 14-day relative strength index of 61 shows that RVN could enter the overbought region if the rally can be maintained.

At press time, RVN is trading at $0.03203 per coin. If the bullish momentum persists, RVN could surge past the $0.035722 resistance level before the end of the day. However, it would need the support of the broader crypto market to cross the $0.040577 resistance level in the short term.

The bears might regain control of the market and push RVN below the $0.028675 support level. However, RVN should comfortably defend its position above the $0.024799 support level in the near term.

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As we get closer and closer to one of the biggest events in the brief history of cryptocurrency – the Ethereum Merge – there are a number of metrics which are suggesting activity is picking up across the space.

Ethereum Name Service

The first is the Ethereum Name Service (ENS), which saw its third highest month of revenue in August. Generating $4.3 million in revenue, the service saw 34,000 accounts register names for the first time.

August 2022 stats for ENS

– 301K new .eth registrations (total 2.17m names)
– $4.7m in protocol revenue (all goes to the @ENS_DAO)
– 2,744 ETH in revenue (3rd highest month)
– 34K new eth accounts w/ at least 1 ENS name (total 540k)
– >99% of OpenSea domain vol pic.twitter.com/utU8i4cBMT

— ens.eth (@ensdomains) September 1, 2022

These names are a neat feature of Ethereum. Instead of providing somebody a long Ethereum address, instead a simple name ending in .eth can be provided, such as harrypotter.eth, for example. This name can be linked to one’s wallet, meaning it’s all that needs to be given when asking for a payment. Simple and intuitive.

The boost in these names being registered shows that people are positioning themselves for the Merge, slated to go live on September 15^th.

13 million ETH staked

The amount of ETH locked up in the staking contract is now up to 13 million ETH, which is about 11% of the total supply. At the current market price of $1,635, that translates to over $21 billion of Ethereum locked up in the staking contract.

What is important to note here is that the Merge will not enable withdrawals of this ETH. I had previously speculated about whether a flooding of ETH into the market post-Merge could place downward pressure on the price – after all, much of the Ethereum has been locked up for quite a while, as the above graph shows.

However, investors will not be able to withdraw their ETH until another upgrade is implemented, which is not planned for 6 months to a year down the line. This should dull the concern around the supply/demand level as the Merge goes live. There are also liquid staking alternatives which mean the liquidity has not been totally inexistent to date.

Macro

And so we close in on the watershed moment, only two weeks away as I write this. The big question remains, will this be a “buy the rumour, sell the news” type event, or will Ethereum pump off the back of it.

My thoughts for the moment are simple – I think for the short-term price action, the macro climate is currently far more important, with spiralling inflation. A hawkish Fed and tense geopolitical climate still driving markets across the board.  

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• I jumped on-chain and noticed a key indicator – miner revenue – suggests that Bitcoin may be prepping for an upward move
• But in isolation, this means nothing. Sample size for Bitcoin is too small, with the current environment the only macro bear market it has seen since launch in 2009
• Until risk-off sentiment in wider market dissipates, on-chain indicators should be taken with pinch of salt

 

One of the most fascinating things about Bitcoin for me is the ability to jump on-chain and track a whole range of indicators. As the years go by and we build up more of a sample of how Bitcoin performs, these metrics become all the more powerful.

One of my favourite on-chain indicators is the Puell indicator. This takes the total miner revenue and adjusts it by its yearly moving average. So, the calculation of the indicator takes mining revenue and divides it by the 365-day simple moving average of mining revenue.

Miner actions often provide unique insights into the market. They are often viewed as compulsory sellers because their revenue is in Bitcoin, whereas their fixed costs – electricity, mostly – are in fiat. Obviously, they have to cover these fixed costs and so the issuance of bitcoins from miners will always be intrinsically related to price.

The Puell indicator pretty much tracks when the amount of bitcoins entering the market is too great or too little relative to historical norms. Looking back at it historically, there is quite a strong relationship – the price tends to move upward when the Puell indicator falls into the green zone on the chart below.  

The most recent time the Puell indicator dipped into the “buy” zone was mid-June. Again, we saw upward movement soon after, as Bitcoin had its little rally from about $20,000 up above $24,000. Of course in the last week or so we have dipped back down to below $20,000, as the Fed’s comments on interest rate plans and inflation sparked a wave of risk-off sentiment across all asset classes.

Interestingly, I noticed yesterday that the Puell indicator has dipped back into the “buy” zone. Zooming on the time period since the start of 2020 demonstrates this a bit clearer on the chart.

Then again, I’m always hesitant to use on-chain indicators in isolation. This is never more true than in the current climate, where we have an unprecedented blend of a hawkish Fed, rampant inflation and a geopolitical climate growing more volatile by the day.

This is the only time in Bitcoin’s short history that we have seen this macro blend. Indeed, Bitcoin was only launched in early 2009, meaning it has resided during a period of sustained up-only bull market dynamics. The historical sample size of its price action simply isn’t long enough to draw any firm conclusions, therefore.

The way I would ultimately look at the Puell indicator is that Bitcoin seems primed to move upward IF the macro environment cooperates. But that is a seriously big if. It has been the case all year – and it will continue to be the case – that macro developments are driving markets.

Bitcoin is following the stock market, which is following the news in the inflation, interest rate and geopolitical sectors. So while this is a bullish on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, it means nothing until we get further cooperation in the wider world.

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