Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is holding near $69K as Iran-related geopolitical tensions keep markets cautious.
• Rising oil prices and inflation concerns are limiting upside, but strong ETF inflows and institutional support are helping BTC stay resilient.

Bitcoin is trading sideways near the $69,000 mark as investors remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the conflict in Iran.

The leading cryptocurrency briefly pushed above $70,000 on Monday—its first move past that level since March—but failed to sustain momentum. 

Geopolitics dominate market sentiment

The ongoing situation in Iran continues to shape global risk appetite. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of severe consequences if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not reached by the Tuesday 20:00 ET deadline.

Iran has rejected a proposed 45-day ceasefire, instead calling for a permanent end to hostilities alongside the removal of sanctions.

For Bitcoin, this macro backdrop is significant—higher oil prices tend to support inflation, push Treasury yields higher, and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Despite the current situation, Bitcoin has held up better than some traditional markets. While it has not staged a breakout, its ability to maintain levels above $65,000 suggests underlying support from positioning and institutional demand.

Meanwhile, Gold has lost more than 10% of its value as investors scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a key factor. After four consecutive months of outflows, March saw $1.2 billion in net inflows. Momentum has continued into April, with spot ETFs recording $471.3 million in inflows in a single day—the largest since February.

These inflows have helped keep Bitcoin’s price, although resistance near $76,000 continues to cap upside.

For Bitcoin to break higher, a clear catalyst is likely required. A confirmed ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be pivotal, particularly if it drives oil prices below $100 per barrel and alleviates inflation concerns.

Technical forecast: Bitcoin eyes the $70k resistance once again

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient as Bitcoin continues to defend the $65,000 support level. 

The price has recovered from this low and is testing resistance around 69k, the 50-day EMA, and the lower band of the rising channel. 

The RSI of 61 on the 4-hour chart is above the neutral level, indicating a growing bullish bias. The MACD lines are also above the zero line, adding further confluence to the bullish narrative. 

Buyers will need to rise above $69,000 to bring $74,000 into focus, the mid-point of the rising channel and the falling trendline resistance dating back to October’s $126,000 record high. 

A surge above the $74,000 resistance level would allow BTC to test the March high of $76,000 in the near term. 

However, failure to rally higher would see the bears push the price towards the $65,000 support level once again.

The post Bitcoin steadies above $68K as Iran tensions keep markets on edge appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Toncoin adoption grows with 87 million Telegram wallet users in the US.
• Market sentiment remains bearish due to altcoin rotation and whale activity.
• The resistance at $1.28 will likely define Toncoin’s short-term price movements.

Toncoin (TON), the native token of the TON blockchain, has been in the spotlight recently due to the ongoing Sub-Second mainnet activation and its integration with Telegram’s massive user base.

💎 The Sub-Second mainnet activation starts now!

TON Core has just shared the completion of the Bug Bounty & stated that changes were already implemented. Now they are moving to the next stage – Sub-Second Mainnet activation.

For additional reliability, activation will be… pic.twitter.com/ddSdwXDnYM

— TON 💎 (@ton_blockchain) April 1, 2026

The upgrade, which is scheduled to run from March 31 to April 12, is set to improve the network’s speed, efficiency, and scalability, which could impact Toncoin’s adoption and market behavior.

However, despite its technological potential, Toncoin has faced a challenging market environment in recent months.

Currently, TON coin trades around $1.23, down about 2.5% over the past 24 hours.

This underperformance is largely linked to a broader trend in the crypto market known as altcoin sector rotation, where investors move their capital from higher-risk altcoins into more stable assets.

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures market interest in altcoins, has dropped significantly, highlighting the cautious sentiment among traders.

This environment has made it difficult for Toncoin to break out from its current range, despite ongoing development progress.

TON adoption and ecosystem growth

TON’s growth is closely tied to its adoption within Telegram, which now supports over 87 million active users in the United States with its self-custodial TON Wallet.

This wallet allows users to transfer and stake Toncoin directly within the messaging app, offering a seamless on-ramp for millions of potential users.

Such integration provides Toncoin with a unique advantage, as it could benefit from network effects far faster than many other Layer-1 blockchains.

On-chain activity supports this potential, with Toncoin showing consistent daily usage.

According to available data, the network records hundreds of thousands of active wallets and millions of daily transactions.

This suggests that while Toncoin’s price has been stagnant, actual usage is steadily growing, signaling a foundation for long-term adoption.

However, a significant portion of the token supply, around 68%, is held by whales.

This concentration increases the risk of large sell-offs, making sudden price spikes less predictable.

Toncoin technical analysis

Toncoin presents an intriguing case of technological potential versus market sentiment.

Its integration with Telegram gives it a unique edge, and the Sub-Second mainnet activation may improve network performance, but short-term price action remains uncertain.

From a technical perspective the short-term support lies near $1.02, with a secondary floor around $0.81.

If the price rebounds following the Sub-Second mainnet activation, the immediate resistance sits at $1.34, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.50 and $1.90.

Historically, a break above $1.28 has always meant momentum for higher price ranges.

But while the Sub-Second mainnet activation could provide a short-term positive driver, the token’s price is still largely influenced by broader market conditions rather than project-specific developments.

On the downside, analysts highlight that failure to hold the $1.20 level could lead to tests of the yearly low around $1.10, especially if broader altcoin rotation continues.

The post Toncoin struggles near $1.23 despite Telegram boost and upgrade push appeared first on CoinJournal.

Solana (SOL) is trading just above $82 at the time of writing on Monday, marking its fourth consecutive day of recovery. While funding rates for SOL futures have climbed, a simultaneous drop in Open Interest suggests sentiment remains divided. From a technical perspective, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $88.80 stands out as the key resistance level to watch.

Derivatives signal optimism, but participation declines

Market data points to rising bullish positioning among traders, even as overall participation in SOL futures contracts declines. According to CoinGlass, the OI-weighted funding rate has increased to 0.0067% from 0.0042% on Sunday, indicating that long-position traders are willing to pay a premium—typically a sign of growing confidence in further upside.

However, this optimism is not fully supported by market activity. Open Interest in SOL futures has dropped to $4.97 billion from $5.07 billion on Friday, signaling a reduction in total capital committed to the market. This divergence—rising funding rates alongside falling Open Interest—highlights a mixed sentiment, where bullish bias exists but conviction appears limited.

Institutional demand remains soft

On the institutional side, demand for Solana continues to show weakness. Data from Sosovalue reveals that SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net weekly outflows of $5.24 million, marking a second straight week of withdrawals. If this trend persists, it could represent the longest streak of weekly outflows so far, potentially adding downward pressure to SOL’s spot price in the near term.

Will Solana extend its recovery to $93?

The SOL/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and inefficient, with the coin up by nearly 4% in the last 24 hours. At press time, SOL is trading at $82.50 per coin. 

The near-term bias is mixed as SOL holds well below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, keeping a broader corrective structure.

The momentum indicators have also switched bullish, with further gains in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above its signal line, signaling persistent buying pressure. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 is above the neutral 50, signaling a growing bullish momentum.

If the rally persists, Cardano would meet an immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA near $88.81, which caps rebounds and guards a stronger move toward $98.02, close to the 100-day EMA at $102.18.

However, if the sellers regain control, the support zone between $75.63 and $77.60 could serve as a bounce-back spot. An extended selling pressure would bring into focus the February 6 low at $67.50.

The post Will Solana rally to $93 despite mixed derivatives sentiment appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• ADA is up 6% in the last 24 hours, making it the best performer among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
• The coin could rally towards the $0.2772 resistance level if the rally persists.

Cardano (ADA) is building on recent gains, trading above $0.25 as of Monday after posting a modest recovery last week. A combination of stronger on-chain signals and improving derivatives data suggests the uptrend could continue. Technical indicators also point to growing momentum, reinforcing the case for a near-term rally.

On-chain and derivatives data lean bullish for Cardano

Data from Santiment’s Social Dominance metric supports a constructive outlook. This indicator tracks the proportion of ADA-related discussions across the broader crypto landscape. It has edged higher to 0.206% on Monday, signaling increased market attention and improving sentiment among investors.

On the derivatives front, CoinGlass shows Cardano’s long-to-short ratio at 1.01. A reading above 1 indicates that more traders are positioning for upside, reflecting a bullish bias in the market.

Meanwhile, Cardano’s funding rates turned positive on Thursday and have continued to climb, reaching 0.0076 on Monday. Positive funding rates suggest that long-position holders are paying shorts, a sign of strong demand. Historically, similar shifts from negative to positive funding, followed by rising rates, have coincided with upward price movements for ADA.

Cardano Price Forecast: ADA could extend gains towards $0.2772

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Cardano is trading above $0.25 on Monday. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the price extends its recovery, nearing the key resistance at the 50-day EMA at $0.27. A breakout suggests an upward move. 

Currently, the momentum indicators have switched bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart at 67 leans bullish, signalling an impulsive buying pressure. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned back above the signal line just under the zero mark, hinting at fading downside pressure.

If the market undergoes a correction, ADA would likely retest the first major support at $0.24. Breaking this support level would expose the $0.22 swing low where buyers previously emerged. 

However, if the rally persists, ADA could surge towards the $0.2772 resistance, coinciding with its 50-day EMA. A daily break above this level could see ADA surge towards the $0.2991 resistance level. 

The post Cardano eyes $0.2772 as bullish sentiment builds appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• PYTH is up 9% in the last 24 hours, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.
• The rally comes following Pyth Network’s integration with Polymarket.

PYTH, the native coin of the Pyth Network, is one of the best performers in the crypto market over the past 24 hours. It could rally higher in the near term as the broader market recovers from Thursday’s slump.

PYTH rallies on Polymarket integration

On Thursday, Pyth Network revealed in a blog post that Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has integrated Pyth Pro as its data source for a new suite of traditional asset contracts.

The initial offerings include gold, silver, and major equity index ETFs. Polymarket now relies on Pyth Pro’s data to power its daily up/down and daily close markets, with live price charts updated every second to ensure full transparency.

The integration has seen PYTH rally by 9% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $0.0420 per coin. 

Pyth Pro provides real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket samples every second to display as a live “price to beat” chart. This allows traders to monitor the market’s status relative to their position in real-time.

The selected assets span a wide range of traditional finance, including major equity indices, commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude, and natural gas, along with over a dozen high-profile U.S. equities such as TSLA, COIN, and PLTR.

Polymarket has integrated this real-time data as a key component of its perpetual futures trading platform. Pyth Pro delivers institutional-grade market data directly from top firms, ensuring it is accurate, transparent, and affordable across all asset classes and regions.

To enhance this, Pyth has partnered with industry leaders and government agencies like Cboe, Jane Street, Revolut, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. This collaboration has helped establish a new model to make market data more accessible, accurate, and transparent.

PYTH eyes $0.050 as bulls step in

The PYTH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient despite the coin adding 9% to its value in the last 24 hours.

The technical indicators have flipped bullish, indicating that the bulls are now in control of the market. The RSI of 63 is well above the neutral 50 and would enter the overbought territory if the rally persists.

The MACD lines are also within the positive region, indicating a strong bullish bias. If the rally continues, PYTH could retest the $0.050 psychological level for the first time since March 17.

However, if the bears regain control, PYTH could retest the Thursday low of $0.038 over the next few hours or days.

 

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