Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Rising supply and weak technical indicators could pressure PI toward key support at $0.1184. 
• Around 16 million PI tokens are set to be unlocked on Thursday, with another 14.8 million becoming eligible for mainnet migration on Friday, potentially increasing selling pressure. 

Pi Network (PI) traded lower on Thursday after suffering three consecutive days of losses earlier in the week. The token remains locked in a broader downtrend that has persisted since late April.

The recovery faces a significant near-term challenge as millions of new PI tokens are scheduled to enter circulation, potentially increasing selling pressure and limiting upside momentum.

Major token unlocks could increase supply pressure

According to PiScan data, approximately 16 million PI tokens are scheduled to be unlocked on Thursday.

A further 14.8 million PI tokens are expected to become eligible for mainnet migration on Friday, adding to concerns about rising circulating supply.

The newly unlocked tokens can potentially be transferred to centralized exchanges, increasing the likelihood of additional selling activity.

Historically, large token unlock events often create short-term downward pressure as investors gain access to previously restricted holdings.

Network activity also points to notable withdrawals among major wallets. PiScan data shows that three of the five largest transactions recorded over the past 24 hours involved the movement of approximately 255,000 PI tokens.

PI technical outlook remains bearish

At the time of writing, PI is trading above $0.1250, but the broader technical picture remains weak.

The token continues to trade below key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) on the four-hour chart.

The clustering of these indicators above the current price suggests that sellers continue to control the broader trend.

Technical momentum signals offer little evidence of a strong recovery. The RSI is hovering near 43, indicating weak buying pressure and a lack of strong bullish momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line remain slightly below zero, reflecting ongoing bearish conditions despite the recent rebound.

Together, these indicators suggest that any short-term rallies could face difficulty sustaining momentum.

If the rally resumes, PI would need to overcome the $0.1299 resistance to enable it to target the higher supply zones at $0.1360 (100-period EMA) and $0.1400.

However, if the bearish trend persists, the bulls will need to defend the core support levels at $0.1184 and $0.1000. 

A break below $0.1184 could expose PI to further downside and potentially trigger a move toward the $0.1000 region.

While Pi Network has managed to stabilize after several days of losses, the combination of weak technical momentum and substantial upcoming token unlocks continues to favor the bears.

Unless demand strengthens enough to absorb the incoming supply, the current rebound risks becoming a temporary relief rally, with the recently established $0.1184 support level remaining the critical line to watch in the days ahead.

The post PI remains bearish as token unlocks threaten recovery appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• XRP continues to consolidate around the $1.10 mark.
• The bulls are holding the price above the $1.05 support level.

Ripple’s XRP is trading lower on Thursday, staying around $1.10 as the token attempted to reverse a downtrend that has persisted since mid-May. 

The downtrend comes as institutional demand for XRP-linked investment products continues to strengthen, even as retail traders remain cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on markets

Risk sentiment remains fragile as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate.

Recent developments have included renewed military exchanges between the two nations, with US President Donald Trump stating that Iran has been slow to agree to a peace deal. Following those remarks, the US military conducted additional strikes that it described as defensive actions.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) subsequently launched attacks targeting US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

The uncertainty has contributed to volatility across financial and cryptocurrency markets, limiting investor risk appetite.

Despite the uncertain macro environment, institutional investors continue to add exposure to XRP.

Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP spot ETFs attracted nearly $1.2 million in net inflows on Wednesday, following approximately $7.44 million in inflows on Tuesday.

According to CoinGlass data, XRP futures Open Interest (OI) stood at approximately $2.43 billion on Thursday.

A falling Open Interest environment typically signals reduced speculative activity and limited conviction among short-term market participants.

XRP price analysis: Recovery attempt faces major resistance

XRP is currently trading around $1.10, but the broader technical picture remains bearish.

The token continues to trade below several major trend indicators. Remaining below all three moving averages suggests that the longer-term downtrend remains intact.

Technical momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is easing, but not yet reversing.

The RSI is hovering near 44, indicating weak demand while remaining just above oversold territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in negative territory, signaling that bearish momentum continues to dominate despite the recent bounce.

If the bulls regain control, XRP could surge towards the 50-day EMA at $1.30, with additional hurdles at $1.40 and $1.61. 

A break above $1.26 would be the first sign that bullish momentum is beginning to strengthen.

However, if the bearish trend persists, XRP could retest the $1.05 support level before dropping below $1.0 to test lower demand zones at $0.95

XRP’s latest rebound is being supported by steady ETF inflows and growing institutional interest. However, declining futures activity, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and a bearish technical structure suggest that the recovery remains tentative.

The post XRP stays around $1.10 as ETF inflows persist appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• ADA remains under pressure after last week’s 30% sell-off
• The coin could dip lower if the bearish trend in the market persists.

Cardano (ADA) continues to struggle on Wednesday, trading near $0.1600 and extending losses following last week’s sharp 30% decline. 

The cryptocurrency remains under intense selling pressure as investor confidence weakens and retail participation fades.

Despite the bearish backdrop, on-chain data suggests that selling activity from long-term holders may be approaching exhaustion, potentially laying the groundwork for a future recovery.

Dormant supply spike suggests capitulation among long-term holders

Recent on-chain data from Santiment shows a significant surge in dormant ADA supply re-entering circulation during early June.

Several spikes in dormant supply spent exceeded 20 billion ADA, culminating in a massive 40.6 billion ADA movement on June 9, the largest recorded spike during the current sell-off.

This wave of activity indicates that long-term holders who had previously remained inactive chose to move or sell their holdings amid market weakness. 

The surge also interrupted the growth in the average age of ADA wallets, confirming that dormant addresses became active again.

While further selling from long-term holders remains possible, such spikes are often viewed as capitulation events that signal the exhaustion of selling pressure and frequently precede market bottoms.

Retail sentiment toward Cardano has deteriorated significantly following last week’s decline.

Derivatives data highlights the decline in speculative demand. According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has dropped to $348.55 million, its lowest level since November 2024. This extends a steady decline from $585.35 million recorded on May 12.

A falling OI typically signals that traders are closing leveraged positions and becoming more risk-averse, reducing the likelihood of a strong recovery in the near term.

ADA price analysis: Can Cardano stay above $0.1500?

Cardano is trading slightly below $0.1600, maintaining a bearish trajectory after reaching a short-term peak of $0.1745 on Monday.

Technical indicators continue to favor sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 is approaching the oversold territory, indicating severe selling pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line, confirming that bearish momentum remains dominant.

While oversold conditions could trigger occasional relief rallies, there is currently no strong evidence of a trend reversal.

If the rally resumes, ADA could surge past Monday’s high of $0.1745 before hitting the $0.2000 psychological level. 

A move back above the $0.2205–$0.2275 zone would be needed to weaken the prevailing bearish outlook.

However, if the selloff persists, ADA could drop below Saturday’s low of $0.1486, with the major long-term support at $0.1000 also a target. 

A break below $0.1486 could expose ADA to a deeper decline toward the $0.1000 region.

The post Cardano extends decline toward $0.15 as retail demand weakens appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• The oversold technical conditions may limit the pace of the decline, but the broader market structure remains bearish.
•  The structure will remain bearish unless BTC can reclaim the $64,000 region and build momentum back above key moving averages. 

BTC Extends Losses Ahead of Key US Inflation Data Bitcoin (BTC) continued its decline on Wednesday, trading below $61,500 as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent institutional selling kept risk sentiment subdued. 

Investors are also preparing for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. 

Renewed Middle East tensions keep risk assets under pressure

Geopolitical concerns intensified after the United States conducted what it described as self-defense strikes against Iran following the downing of a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by saying it had targeted an airbase in Jordan hosting US forces, as well as locations in Kuwait and Bahrain, and warned of further escalation if US actions continue.

Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US inflation data. Economists expect the May CPI report to show another increase in consumer prices, partly due to elevated energy costs linked to the Middle East crisis. 

If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

Higher borrowing costs tend to reduce liquidity and make yield-bearing assets more attractive relative to risk assets, potentially adding further pressure on Bitcoin. 

Institutional demand remains weak. According to CoinGlass, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $77.44 million on Tuesday, following $91.37 million in outflows earlier in the week.

These withdrawals extend a broader trend of persistent weekly outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that large investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Bears retain control

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin maintains a clearly bearish near-term structure. 

Price remains well below all three major moving averages, while a former upward trendline near $73,004 has turned into resistance, reinforcing the view that the medium-term uptrend has been broken. 

The RSI near 38 indicates oversold conditions that could slow the decline, but it does not yet signal a confirmed reversal. 

The MACD remains in negative territory, although downside momentum appears to be moderating, increasing the risk of consolidation rather than an immediate recovery. 

If the bulls regain control, immediate resistance is seen at the $64,004 level, with the $72,037 zone also posing as a strong supply zone.

No significant support levels are identified immediately below the current price in this setup, leaving BTC vulnerable to further downside if selling pressure persists. 

The post Bitcoin falls below $61k amid geopolitical tensions and ETF outflows appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure despite a modest rebound following last week’s sharp correction.
• Derivatives data shows a bearish bias, with long-to-short ratios below 1 and funding rates turning negative for the asset. 

Stellar (XLM) remained under pressure on Tuesday despite staging a modest recovery following last week’s steep market-wide correction. 

Weak derivatives positioning and mixed on-chain signals suggest that recent gains may be corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal.

Market data indicates traders continue to favor downside exposure, reinforcing a cautious outlook for both assets.

Derivatives markets signal growing bearish sentiment

Recent derivatives data from CoinGlass points to increasing pessimism among traders. The long-to-short ratio for XLM fell to 0.73 on Tuesday, approaching its lowest readings in more than a month. 

A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions outweigh long positions, highlighting expectations for further price declines.

The bearish bias is further reflected in funding rates. XLM’s funding rate turned negative on Monday and continued trending lower into Tuesday. 

Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying long-position holders, a sign that traders are increasingly positioning for downside movement.

CryptoQuant’s market summary data presents a mixed but slightly negative outlook for XLM. Data shows elevated activity across both spot and futures markets, with increased retail participation and buy-side dominance. 

While rising buying activity may seem positive, overheated market conditions often precede short-term pullbacks, limiting the potential for a sustained recovery.

Stellar price forecast: Momentum begins to fade

Stellar is trading near $0.195 on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.182 and $0.179, respectively.

While this positioning supports a neutral-to-slightly bullish short-term outlook, XLM continues to face resistance at the 200-day EMA near $0.198.

Technical indicators suggest momentum is cooling. The RSI sits near 45, indicating balanced market conditions. The MACD has slipped below the zero line, signaling weakening bullish momentum and raising the risk of another downside move if buyers fail to regain control.

If the rally resumes, immediate resistance lies at the 200-day EMA at $0.198, with the next upside target at $0.226

However, if the sellers stay in control, initial support is seen at $0.185, with the next level at the 50-day EMA at $0.182.

A daily candle close below these levels would expose lower support zones at $1.79 and $1.43.

The post Stellar faces renewed selling pressure amid bearish derivatives data appeared first on CoinJournal.