HYPE faces selling pressure as institutional demand keeps the $100 target alive

Key takeaways

  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) has fallen for four straight days as retail demand weakens amid broader crypto market uncertainty.
  • Futures open interest and trading volume have declined, signaling lower speculative activity.
  • Institutional interest remains strong, with HYPE ETFs attracting $16.08 million in weekly inflows.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains under pressure for the fourth consecutive trading session as retail traders reduce exposure amid growing geopolitical uncertainty and a broader risk-off mood across the cryptocurrency market.

While short-term sentiment has cooled, institutional investors continue to accumulate exposure, and activity within Hyperliquid’s Real World Asset (RWA) ecosystem remains robust. These factors continue to support the token’s longer-term bullish outlook.

Technical indicators also suggest that a decisive breakout above the $75-$77 resistance area could reignite buying momentum and potentially push HYPE toward the psychological $100 level.

Retail traders step back as market sentiment weakens

Retail participation in Hyperliquid has softened as investors become increasingly cautious amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, which have dampened appetite for risk assets.

According to CoinGlass data, HYPE futures open interest declined to $2.68 billion, indicating a modest reduction in leveraged positions. 

Meanwhile, derivatives trading volume dropped 29% over the past 24 hours to $1.99 billion, highlighting weaker short-term market participation.

Despite the slowdown, bullish positioning has not disappeared entirely. The funding rate eased slightly to 0.0065% from 0.0078% a day earlier, remaining in positive territory. 

Positive funding rates generally indicate that long-position holders are still willing to pay a premium, suggesting optimism persists despite the recent pullback.

Overall, derivatives data points to a cautious market where traders are waiting for greater clarity before making aggressive directional bets.

While retail demand has cooled, institutional investors continue to show confidence in Hyperliquid.

HYPE-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $3.33 million in fresh inflows on Wednesday, bringing total weekly inflows to $16.08 million. 

The steady capital inflows suggest larger investors remain optimistic about the project’s long-term growth prospects.

At the same time, Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 ecosystem—which supports perpetual contracts tied to tokenized Real World Assets (RWAs)—continues to gain momentum.

Open interest across HIP-3 products climbed to $3.10 billion, while trading volume increased 40% over the past 24 hours and 28% over the past month. 

Revenue has also remained stable at roughly $10 million over the past four weeks, reflecting sustained user activity and growing demand for RWA-based trading products.

These metrics reinforce the view that institutional adoption and expanding utility remain key drivers behind Hyperliquid’s long-term bullish narrative.

Technical analysis: $75-$77 remains the key breakout zone

From a technical standpoint, Hyperliquid is undergoing a healthy correction while preserving its broader uptrend.

The token is approaching a rising support trendline near $66.54, an area that continues to underpin the current market structure. 

More importantly, HYPE remains comfortably above both its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.53 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $48.33.

Holding above these major moving averages indicates that buyers still maintain control of the longer-term trend.

The primary resistance lies between $75.76—the June 1 swing high—and the R1 Pivot level at $77.09. Together, these levels form the upper boundary of an ascending triangle, a chart pattern that often precedes bullish breakouts.

A successful move above this resistance zone could open the door to the next upside targets: R2 Pivot at $89.14, and the R3 Pivot: $101.35

If bullish momentum accelerates, the psychological $100 level could become a realistic near-term objective.

Technical momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls despite the recent correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, indicating that bullish momentum has not been fully lost.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 42, just below the neutral zone. This suggests there is still room for additional upside if buying pressure returns.

Together, these indicators reflect neutral-to-positive momentum rather than a shift toward a bearish trend.

Although the broader outlook remains constructive, traders should monitor downside support levels closely.

If HYPE loses the 50-day EMA at $62.53, sellers could push prices toward the S1 Pivot level at $52.83.

HYPE/USD 4H chart

A deeper correction could eventually test the 200-day EMA at $48.33, which continues to represent the foundation of Hyperliquid’s longer-term bullish market structure.

As long as HYPE remains above these critical support levels, the broader uptrend remains intact despite ongoing short-term volatility.

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Zcash price forecast: ZEC surges 4%, targets new weekly high

Key takeaways

  • Zcash (ZEC) climbed more than 4% after developers announced progress toward proving its new privacy system is free from undetectable counterfeiting vulnerabilities.
  • Project Tachyon is close to completing a mathematical verification of Zcash’s upcoming Ironwood shielded pool.

Zcash’s native token ZEC surged more than 4% on Wednesday after developers announced they are close to mathematically proving that the network’s next-generation privacy system is free from a critical class of counterfeiting vulnerabilities.

The announcement restored investor confidence following last month’s disclosure of a security flaw in Zcash’s existing shielded transaction system, helping the privacy-focused cryptocurrency reclaim the $500 level for the first time since early June.

Project Tachyon nears verification of Ironwood Shielded Pool

The latest update comes from Project Tachyon, the team leading the formal verification of Zcash’s upcoming Ironwood shielded pool, which is set to replace the current Orchard privacy pool.

According to the developers, they are close to producing a mathematical proof confirming that Ironwood does not contain undetectable counterfeiting bugs.

Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said the project is “on the verge” of completing a formal proof demonstrating that the latest generation of Zcash shielded pools is secure against this class of vulnerability.

If successful, the verification would provide stronger security guarantees for one of the network’s core privacy features.

Investor confidence was shaken last month after developers disclosed a critical vulnerability affecting Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool.

The flaw could have theoretically allowed an attacker to create counterfeit ZEC within the privacy pool without detection.

Although developers quickly patched the issue and said they found no evidence that the vulnerability had ever been exploited, Zcash’s privacy architecture made it impossible to cryptographically prove that no counterfeit coins had been created.

The disclosure triggered a sharp market reaction, sending ZEC down more than 40% in just two days.

Will ZEC reclaim $550?

The ZEC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient following the recent rally. The momentum indicators suggest that the bulls could push ZEC’s price higher.

The RSI of 57 shows that ZEC is above the neutral zone, while the MACD lines reinforce the bullish bias.

If the bulls remain in control, ZEC could rally past the Tuesday high of $510 and set a new weekly high around $550. 

ZEC/USD 4H Chart

A decisive candle close above this level could allow ZEC to reclaim the $600 psychological zone in the near term. 

However, if the bears come into the picture, ZEC could retest the 4-hour TLQ at $438 over the next few hours.

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HYPE drops below $70 as retail demand weakens despite ETF inflows

Key takeaways

  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) has fallen below $70, extending its losing streak as broader crypto market sentiment turns risk-off.
  • Retail participation is weakening, with futures open interest declining and long liquidations dominating the derivatives market.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued to trade lower on Wednesday, slipping below the $70 level as cautious sentiment across the cryptocurrency market dampened retail participation.

The token has recorded three consecutive days of losses, reflecting growing uncertainty among short-term traders. Despite the pullback, institutional investors continue to show confidence, highlighting a divergence between retail and professional market participants.

Retail traders reduce exposure

Recent derivatives data points to weakening retail demand for HYPE. According to CoinGlass, Hyperliquid futures open interest (OI) declined by more than 2% over the past 24 hours to $2.80 billion, indicating that traders are either reducing leverage or closing positions altogether.

During the same period, the market recorded $7.09 million in liquidations, with approximately $6.29 million coming from long positions. 

The dominance of long liquidations suggests that bullish traders have been forced to exit as prices moved lower, reinforcing short-term selling pressure.

Despite the decline in positioning, the funding rate remains positive at 0.0078%, indicating that some traders continue to maintain bullish expectations and are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions.

While retail sentiment has weakened, institutional interest continues to provide support.

Data from CoinGlass shows that HYPE exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $4.32 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following $8.43 million in inflows recorded on Monday.

The continued inflows suggest that larger investors remain optimistic about Hyperliquid’s longer-term outlook despite ongoing short-term market volatility.

This divergence between institutional accumulation and cautious retail positioning could become an important factor in determining the token’s next major move.

Hyperliquid price outlook: Support near $64.75 comes into focus

At the time of writing, HYPE is trading around $68, maintaining its broader bullish structure despite recent weakness.

The token remains comfortably above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.36, which continues to trend above the 200-day EMA at $48.40—a positive sign for the longer-term trend.

However, the recent rejection from a local resistance trendline near $72.75 has increased the likelihood of a deeper short-term correction.

From a technical standpoint, HYPE could continue sliding toward a rising support trendline around $64.75, an area reinforced by the nearby 50-day EMA.

Momentum indicators continue to lean cautiously bullish but show signs of slowing. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly above its signal line, indicating that positive momentum has not disappeared completely.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 54, reflecting moderate buying strength while gradually moving back toward neutral territory.

Unless buying activity strengthens, the current pullback could continue before the broader uptrend resumes.

The first major support lies near the ascending trendline around $64.75, followed by the 50-day EMA at $62.36. A decisive break below these levels could expose HYPE to a deeper correction, potentially bringing the $60 level into focus.

HYPE/USD 4H Chart

On the upside, bulls must reclaim the $72.73 resistance zone, which aligns with the recent descending trendline. A successful breakout above this level could restore upward momentum and pave the way toward the R1 Pivot Point at $77.09, followed by the R2 Pivot Point at $89.14.

For now, the short-term outlook remains cautious, with weakening retail demand offset by continued institutional accumulation.

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Mixed market signals leave XLM at key technical levels

Key takeaways

  • Stellar (XLM) is trading lower as bullish momentum fades.
  • Derivatives data shows bearish positioning, with long-to-short ratios below 1 
  • Positive funding rates indicate traders are still willing to maintain long positions despite the pullback.

Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure on Tuesday as the coin extends its recent pullbacks.

Although prices have weakened, derivatives and on-chain metrics suggest investor sentiment has not turned decisively bearish. 

Instead, market participants appear cautiously optimistic, with traders balancing expectations for a potential recovery against continued short-term weakness.

Derivatives data shows mixed sentiment

Recent derivatives metrics present conflicting signals for the digital asset. According to CoinGlass, XLM’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.84, also near a one-month low.

A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions outnumber long positions, suggesting traders are increasingly betting on further downside.

However, funding rates tell a different story. XLM’s funding rates read 0.0058%, indicating that the bulls are still paying the bears. 

Positive funding rates mean traders holding long positions are paying those holding shorts, indicating that bullish positioning still outweighs bearish conviction among leveraged participants.

The divergence between positioning and funding suggests many investors remain cautiously optimistic despite the recent correction.

Stellar technical outlook: XLM holds above key support

Stellar continues to trade above its short-term moving averages, preserving a modest bullish bias despite recent weakness.

XLM is currently trading near $0.193, holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.1922 and the 100-day EMA at $0.1872

However, the token remains capped below the 200-day EMA at $0.1985 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.2001

These levels represent immediate resistance for the current recovery attempt. Technical indicators continue to lean slightly positive. The RSI remains near 48, reflecting bearish momentum, while the MACD stays above the zero line, suggesting underlying bullish momentum has not yet faded completely.

If the bulls regain control, XLM could rally towards the $0.1985 (200-day EMA) and $0.2001 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

A daily candle close above these levels would allow XLM to extend its rally towards the $0.2188, $0.2376, and $0.2607 resistance zones. 

However, if the bearish trend persists, XLM could drop below $0.1922 (50-day EMA) and $0.1872 (100-day EMA) in the near term.

XLM/USD 4H Chart

A decisive close below these levels would expose lower demand zones at $0.1774, $0.1735 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), and $0.1421 (major structural support)

Holding above the 50-day EMA would help preserve XLM’s near-term recovery, while a break below $0.1872 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers.

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Bitcoin could drop below $63k as market structure remains volatile

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $64,000 despite improving derivatives data.
  • Analysts at QCP note that July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, averaging gains of around 7.5%.
  • Glassnode says Bitcoin is showing signs of structural stabilization, with spot selling pressure easing significantly.

Bitcoin (BTC) started July on firmer footing, recovering above the $63,000 level as improving derivatives positioning and easing selling pressure helped stabilize the cryptocurrency market.

The rebound follows several weeks of volatility and comes as analysts point to historically favorable seasonal trends, strengthening technical conditions, and improving institutional flows as factors supporting Bitcoin’s recovery.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $63,190, up approximately 0.6% over the past 24 hours.

July seasonality favors Bitcoin bulls

Analysts at crypto trading firm QCP noted that Bitcoin’s early-July recovery aligns with historical market patterns.

According to the firm, July has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest-performing months, delivering average returns of roughly 7.5%.

QCP added that lighter trading volumes during the U.S. Independence Day holiday helped preserve the bullish momentum that emerged after softer-than-expected U.S. labor market data eased pressure on risk assets.

The firm also observed that stress across Bitcoin’s derivatives market has begun to ease.

Recent derivatives data suggests traders are becoming less defensive. QCP highlighted several encouraging developments:

  • Implied volatility continues to trend lower.
  • Near-term put option skew has moderated after rising sharply during the recent market decline.
  • Traders have shown notable interest in $70,000 call options expiring at the end of July, indicating expectations for additional upside.

However, optimism remains measured.

The firm also pointed to ongoing demand for $58,000 put options expiring later this year, reflecting concerns among some investors that Bitcoin’s current rebound could resemble the temporary recovery seen during the 2022 bear market before prices resumed their decline.

Bitcoin price forecast: BTC could drop below $63,000

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient following last week’s rally. The momentum indicators suggest that the market is currently consolidating.

The RSI of 55 means that neither the buyers nor the sellers are in control. The MACD lines are also in the neutral zone, reinforcing the current bias.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

If the bearish trend resumes, BTC could slip below the $63,000 level and test the 4-hour TLQ at $61,365. 

However, if the bulls regain control, Bitcoin could surge past the $64,000 barrier and retest the June 15 high of $67,125.

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