Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• LayerZero (ZRO) fell about 3% on Monday, extending last week’s 9% decline.
• The network is set to unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens, equivalent to 4.6% of the total supply, increasing potential selling pressure.
• Despite bearish price action, futures trading volume surged 552%, reflecting heightened retail interest.
• Technically, ZRO remains in a downtrend, with support at $0.734 and a potential downside target near $0.532.

LayerZero (ZRO) extended its recent losses on Monday, falling roughly 4% as investors prepared for one of the project’s largest scheduled token unlocks.

The token has already declined about 9% over the past week, and the release of 25.71 million ZRO into circulation could add further selling pressure in the short term.

Although derivatives activity has surged ahead of the unlock, market positioning suggests traders remain cautious about the token’s near-term outlook.

Monthly token unlock adds supply pressure

According to Tokenomist data, LayerZero will unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens on Monday, representing approximately 4.6% of the token’s total supply.

The newly unlocked tokens will primarily be allocated to strategic partners and core contributors.

At the same time, approximately 1.67 million ZRO, or 0.3% of the released supply, will be repurchased through a buyback program.

The planned buyback may signal confidence from the project’s core team, but the additional circulating supply is still expected to weigh on short-term price action as investors assess potential selling activity.

While institutional allocations are set to increase, retail traders have become increasingly active in LayerZero’s derivatives market.

CoinGlass data shows futures trading volume surged 552% over the past 24 hours to $248.65 million. Meanwhile, Open Interest (OI) increased 4.52% to $80.87 million, indicating new positions are entering the market.

The rise in both trading volume and Open Interest suggests growing speculation ahead of the token unlock.

However, sentiment appears to be shifting. Despite higher trading activity, perpetual futures funding rates have weakened.

The funding rate declined to 0.0061% from 0.0121% a day earlier, indicating demand for leveraged long positions is easing.

Lower funding rates often reflect reduced confidence among bullish traders, particularly before major token unlocks that increase circulating supply and create expectations of additional selling pressure.

The combination of rising speculative activity and weakening bullish positioning suggests investors remain cautious heading into the unlock event.

LayerZero price prediction: Bears remain in control

From a technical perspective, LayerZero continues to trade within a well-established downtrend.

The token remains below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.957, reinforcing bearish momentum.

The outlook also remains negative following the death cross formed in late April, when the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA—a signal often associated with sustained downward trends.

Technical indicators continue to support the bearish outlook. Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads around 36, indicating strong bearish momentum while remaining above oversold territory.

Both the MACD and signal lines remain below zero and continue trending lower, suggesting downside momentum persists.

These indicators show sellers continue to dominate despite increased derivatives activity.

The most important downside support remains at $0.734, the major structural support and Fibonacci anchor.

A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling and expose the next technical target at $0.532. Reaching this level would represent roughly 25% downside from current prices.

If buyers manage to regain momentum following the token unlock, the first resistance zone sits around $0.945 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with another hurdle at $0.957 (50-day EMA).

A daily close above this resistance cluster would reduce immediate bearish pressure and could open the door for a move toward $1.325.

However, reclaiming the 50-day EMA remains necessary before a broader recovery can develop.

The post ZRO slides 4% ahead of 25.7 million token unlock appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Pi Network (PI) is showing signs of recovery after several days of consolidation and easing selling pressure.
• Rising Open Interest suggests speculative traders are positioning for a potential rebound.
• The upcoming Stellar Protocol v25 mainnet upgrade and improving market sentiment could support PI’s recovery.

Pi Network (PI) posted modest gains on Friday after three consecutive sessions of sideways trading, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing following a sharp correction earlier this month.

Although the token remains in a broader downtrend, increasing derivatives activity and deeply oversold technical indicators are fueling speculation that PI could be preparing for a short-term rebound.

Speculative demand begins to strengthen

Pi Network remains one of the cryptocurrency market’s most speculative community-driven assets, making its price particularly sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.

After a steep sell-off earlier this month, optimism has started to improve as broader market risk appetite stabilizes.

Another potential catalyst is the Stellar Protocol version 25 mainnet upgrade, scheduled for July 22, which could support sentiment across ecosystems connected to Stellar-based infrastructure.

Meanwhile, derivatives data points to growing speculative interest. According to CoinAnk, Pi Network Open Interest increased to $10.73 million on Friday from $10.44 million a day earlier. 

Open Interest has steadily recovered from $9.11 million recorded on Monday, indicating that traders are gradually returning to the market after the recent correction.

The increase suggests retail investors are beginning to position for a possible recovery, although conviction remains relatively modest.

PI remains oversold despite stabilizing price action

From a technical perspective, Pi Network continues to trade below the key $0.0800 resistance level, leaving the broader trend bearish.

However, the token has managed to hold near the lower boundary of a falling channel, where technical support is reinforced by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $0.06793.

Holding above this area could provide the foundation for a relief rally if buying momentum continues to build.

Technical indicators are beginning to show early signs that the recent decline may be losing momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to around 17, placing PI deep in oversold territory. While oversold readings do not guarantee a reversal, they often indicate that selling pressure has become stretched.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line but is showing signs of weakening bearish momentum, suggesting sellers may be losing control.

If PI extends its recovery, the first resistance level is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $0.09613.

A stronger rebound would then face resistance near $0.110, where the upper boundary of the falling channel could limit further gains unless broader market sentiment improves.

On the downside, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $0.06793 remains the most important support level.

A decisive break below that area could expose the 227.2% Fibonacci extension near $0.01463, significantly increasing downside risk.

For now, Pi Network’s deeply oversold technical setup, combined with rising Open Interest and improving market sentiment, suggests that a short-term recovery remains possible, although the broader trend will remain bearish until key resistance levels are reclaimed.

The post PI eyes rebound as Open Interest rises and oversold conditions deepen appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Solana (SOL) is down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours after failing to break above the crucial $78 resistance.
• Spot Solana ETFs have recorded net outflows, signaling weaker institutional demand.
• A break below $74 could send SOL toward $64, while a breakout above $78 may trigger a rally to $90.

Solana (SOL) extended its recent pullback on Friday, falling nearly 2% over the past 24 hours as buyers once again failed to overcome the key resistance level at $78.

Although cooling U.S. inflation briefly boosted risk appetite earlier this week, the rally lacked enough momentum to sustain a breakout. At the same time, declining trading volumes and renewed ETF outflows have added to the cautious outlook.

Trading activity cools after recent rally

Market participation has slowed noticeably in recent sessions. Daily trading volume has fallen from a short-term peak of approximately $4 billion on July 2 to around $2 billion, suggesting reduced buying interest following the recent rebound.

The inability to break above the $78 resistance despite improving macroeconomic sentiment indicates that bullish momentum may be weakening.

Institutional sentiment has also softened. According to CoinGlass, Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded approximately $700,000 in net outflows this week.

The reversal contrasts with recent weeks, when Solana ETFs attracted more than $1.1 million in inflows and accumulated nearly $3 million since the beginning of the month.

The shift suggests institutional investors remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding interest rates and broader market conditions continues to weigh on risk assets.

Despite weaker price action, Solana’s network fundamentals continue to improve.

Data from Santiment shows that daily active addresses (DAAs) have continued to climb, indicating growing user activity across the network.

Notably, the 30-day moving average of daily active addresses has crossed above the 50-day moving average, with the gap widening in recent days.

Historically, similar crossovers have preceded significant price movements for Solana, although they do not indicate whether the move will ultimately be bullish or bearish.

The increase in active wallets suggests investors are positioning ahead of the token’s next major directional move.

SOL faces a critical technical crossroads

Technically, Solana remains trapped below the important $78 resistance level. The repeated rejection at this price has reinforced it as a key barrier that bulls must overcome before a sustained recovery can develop.

On the downside, the immediate focus shifts to the ascending trendline support near $74. This level represents a crucial defense for buyers.

If $74 fails to hold, Solana could accelerate lower toward the next major support around $64.

Momentum indicators are beginning to favor the bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 49, falling below its signal line and indicating weakening bullish momentum. 

A move toward 40 would strengthen the bearish outlook and suggest sellers have gained greater control.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above $78 could trigger a wave of short covering, as a significant number of stop-loss orders are believed to be positioned above that level.

Such a move could accelerate buying momentum and open the door for a rally toward $90.

For now, Solana remains at a pivotal technical level, with declining institutional flows contrasting against strengthening on-chain activity. The next breakout or breakdown is likely to determine the token’s short-term direction.

The post SOL struggles below key resistance as ETF outflows weigh on sentiment appeared first on CoinJournal.

TL;DR

• XLM is trading higher on Thursday after defending key support levels earlier this week.
• Rising Open Interest (OI) and positive funding rates suggest fresh capital is flowing into both markets.
• XLM remains below major resistance levels despite showing signs that bearish momentum is fading.

Stellar’s XLM continues its recovery on Thursday, supported by improving derivatives metrics and stabilizing technical indicators after the cryptocurrency defended key support levels earlier in the week.

Open Interest climbs as traders return

Derivatives data points to renewed confidence among market participants. According to CoinGlass, XLM Open Interest climbed from $153 million on Monday to around $195 million, up 25% in the last 24 hours.

The simultaneous rise in prices and Open Interest suggests fresh capital is entering the market rather than traders simply closing positions. This typically signals strengthening conviction behind the current recovery.

Market sentiment has also improved across perpetual futures markets. XLM recorded positive funding rates after turning positive on Tuesday.

Positive funding rates indicate that traders holding long positions are paying a premium to maintain their exposure, reflecting growing bullish sentiment.

While derivatives indicators have strengthened, on-chain metrics paint a mixed picture. CryptoQuant indicates that XLM continues to experience selling-side dominance across both spot and derivatives markets, suggesting larger traders remain hesitant despite the recent rebound.

This imbalance could limit the pace of any sustained upside move.

XLM technical analysis: Recovery faces multiple technical barriers

Stellar traded around $0.189 on Thursday after bouncing from support near $0.177.

However, XLM continues to trade below the 50-day EMA at $0.190 and the 200-day EMA at $0.196

The token is currently hovering just above its 100-day EMA at $0.187, providing immediate support.

Momentum indicators suggest buyers are gradually returning but remain cautious. The RSI is near 49, reflecting neutral momentum without a clear bullish bias.

Meanwhile, the MACD remains slightly below zero, indicating bearish pressure has weakened but has not fully disappeared.

If the rally persists, the first major resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of $0.190. A decisive break above this level will expose higher hurdles at $0.196 (200-day EMA) and $0.218.

A sustained move above $0.200 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery.

However, if the bearish trend resumes, the bulls would need to instantly defend the $0.187 support level.

Failure to defend this support could see XLM retest lower demand zones at $0.177 and $0.142 in the near term. 

XLM is showing encouraging signs of recovery as derivatives activity strengthens and funding rates turn positive. 

However, XLM continues to face heavier selling pressure from larger market participants.

The post XLM extends recovery amid rising Open Interest appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight pullback, while whale wallets continued accumulating tokens.
• Wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA have reached their highest holdings since February 2023, while smaller investors have reduced exposure.
• The upcoming van Rossem hard fork, scheduled for Saturday, could act as a catalyst for ADA’s next move.

Cardano (ADA) edged lower on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after facing mild selling pressure the previous session. 

Despite the pullback, on-chain and derivatives data indicate that investor sentiment is gradually improving as large holders continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of a key network upgrade.

The combination of growing whale activity, strengthening derivatives metrics, and the upcoming van Rossem hard fork has increased expectations that ADA could stage a broader recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.

Whales continue accumulating ADA

On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear divergence between large and small Cardano holders.

Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now collectively own more than 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.

In contrast, wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by roughly 0.7% over the past four months.

The trend suggests institutional investors and high-net-worth holders continue accumulating Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. Historically, sustained whale accumulation has often preceded periods of stronger price performance.

Cardano’s development roadmap also received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that the van Rossem hard fork will be activated on Saturday following governance ratification earlier this week.

The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality alongside protocol enhancements designed to improve smart contract performance, developer capabilities, and overall network efficiency.

The hard fork could provide a near-term catalyst by strengthening Cardano’s ecosystem and increasing confidence among developers and investors.

Futures market activity also points to strengthening investor confidence.

According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has increased from approximately $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.

Rising Open Interest alongside stabilizing prices generally indicates that fresh capital is entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing positions.

Meanwhile, ADA’s funding rate has turned positive, reaching 0.0042%, suggesting traders holding long positions are once again willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.

Positive funding rates typically reflect improving market sentiment and growing expectations for higher prices.

Cardano price forecast: ADA still faces major resistance

Despite improving fundamentals, Cardano remains technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several major moving averages, preserving the broader bearish market structure.

Cardano remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.179, the 100-day EMA ($0.208), and the 200-day EMA ($0.276)

The token is also trading beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the broader downtrend remains intact below the trendline resistance near $0.207.

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, indicating neutral momentum without signaling either overbought or oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting bearish momentum is easing, although buying pressure remains too weak to confirm a sustained trend reversal.

If bulls regain momentum, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207–$0.208  (Trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

A successful break above the $0.207–$0.208 region would significantly improve Cardano’s medium-term outlook.

On the downside, traders should watch the immediate support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could see ADA retest the June 25 swing low of $0.1382. 

Cardano’s improving fundamentals are beginning to contrast with its still-cautious technical picture. Whale accumulation, rising Open Interest, and positive funding rates suggest confidence is gradually returning, while the upcoming van Rossem hard fork provides an additional potential catalyst.

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