Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin remains vulnerable as hawkish Federal Reserve guidance, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent ETF demand continue to dampen investor sentiment.
• With BTC trading below key moving averages and lacking strong buying momentum, the near-term bias remains bearish. 

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the U.S. Federal Reserve and mixed institutional demand signals.

The leading cryptocurrency continues to struggle for momentum, with risk appetite fading across financial markets after the Fed signaled a tougher policy outlook despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve maintains rates but adopts hawkish tone

The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While the decision itself was widely expected, markets were focused on the Fed’s forward guidance and updated economic projections.

The central bank removed language suggesting a bias toward further monetary easing and instead signaled support for maintaining higher rates for longer. Policymakers now project the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% forecast issued in March.

The revised outlook prompted traders to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering little support for a sustained recovery.

According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, following:

The inconsistent flow pattern, coupled with a slight bearish bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Should ETF outflows continue or accelerate in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Bitcoin price outlook: Relief bounce shows signs of weakness

Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by renewed buying demand.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure and remains below several key moving averages.

BTC is currently trading below the 50-day EMA at $70,042, the 100-day EMA at $72,839, and the 200-day EMA at $78,174.

The failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader downtrend and highlights persistent overhead selling pressure.

Additionally, the previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has now turned into a major resistance zone.

Technical indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that recent rebounds may be corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

If Bitcoin attempts a rebound, traders will likely focus on several major resistance zones. The first major resistance at $64,004 could pave the way for higher hurdles at $70,042 – 50-day EMA

A move above these levels would be required to significantly improve the technical outlook.

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Key takeaways

• XLM is up 12% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the broader crypto market.
• The rally comes as Open Interest hits $261 million. 

XLM extends weekly gains

Stellar’s XLM attracted renewed buying interest on Tuesday after posting strong gains at the start of the week. XLM surged over 11%, bringing the asset closer to key resistance levels that could determine the next phase of its price action.

Supporting the rally are improving derivatives and on-chain metrics, including rising open interest, increasing trading volumes, and positive funding rates, all of which point to growing market participation and strengthening bullish sentiment.

Data from CoinGlass shows a notable increase in derivatives activity for both cryptocurrencies.

XLM’s open interest climbed to $261 million. Rising open interest is generally viewed as a sign that new capital is entering the market and that traders are increasing exposure to the assets.

The increase suggests investors are positioning for further upside as momentum improves across the broader crypto market.

Funding rates have also shifted in favor of bulls. CoinGlass data shows that XLM’s funding rate reached 0.0061% on Tuesday.

Positive funding rates indicate that long-position holders are willing to pay a premium to maintain bullish bets, often reflecting growing confidence in higher prices.

On-chain activity provides additional support for the bullish outlook. According to Santiment, Stellar’s trading volume is climbing to $879.25 million from just $153 million over the past few days.

The sharp rise in activity suggests renewed investor interest in the XLM ecosystem as prices recover from recent lows.

Stellar technical outlook: Momentum continues to improve

XLM is trading near $0.227 on Tuesday, maintaining a constructive technical setup after rebounding from last week’s correction.

The token remains above a key support zone formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.200 and the 200-day EMA around $0.199. 

Additional support comes from the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.185 and $0.182, respectively.

The RSI is currently near 71, indicating healthy momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to trend higher, signaling that bearish pressure is gradually weakening.

If the rally persists, immediate resistance is seen at the $0.237 level, with an additional supply zone at the $0.260 region. 

However, if the bearish trend returns, immediate support is located at the $0.200 psychological level.

A daily candle break below this level could expose further demand zones at $0.185 and $0.177 in the near term. 

A breakout above $0.237 could pave the way for a stronger move higher, while holding above the $0.200 support zone remains crucial to preserving the current bullish structure.

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Key takeaways

• BitMine bought 76,881 ETH, raising its holdings to 5.62 million ETH.
• The company now controls about 4.66% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.
• ETH is attempting to hold above $1,800 while facing resistance near $1,900. 

BitMine adds nearly 77,000 ETH to its reserve

Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies significantly expanded its Ether holdings last week, purchasing 76,881 ETH during a period of weakness in the broader crypto market.

The acquisition increased the company’s total Ethereum holdings to 5.62 million ETH, valued at approximately $10.35 billion at current prices. 

According to BitMine, the position now represents about 4.66% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, moving the firm closer to its stated goal of controlling 5% of the available ETH supply.

Despite lowering its average acquisition cost through continued accumulation during the recent market downturn, BitMine still reports unrealized losses exceeding $9 billion on its Ethereum position.

In addition to its substantial Ethereum holdings, BitMine disclosed ownership of 204 Bitcoin as well as significant equity investments.

The company currently holds 204 BTC, a $180 million stake in Beast Industries, $88 million worth of Eightco Holdings shares, and $502 million in cash and marketable securities.

The sizable cash position was largely funded through a recently completed preferred stock offering.

BitMine recently closed an offering of 3.5 million shares of its 9.5% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock at $80 per share.

After underwriting fees, commissions, and related expenses, the company generated approximately $273.8 million in net proceeds.

Chairman Thomas Lee described the offering as a strategic move to diversify the company’s balance sheet while maintaining its aggressive Ethereum accumulation strategy.

“The Series A Preferred Stock offering is good balance sheet diversification for BitMine,” Lee said in a statement. He added that projected annual staking rewards of roughly $219 million are expected to provide recurring cash flow to support dividend obligations associated with the preferred shares.

Ethereum technical outlook: Bulls target a break above $1,800

The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bullish as Ethereum is currently attempting to stabilize after rebounding sharply from levels below $1,600.

While short-term momentum indicators have improved, the asset remains constrained by several layers of overhead resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the 67 level, while the Stochastic oscillator continues to move higher, signaling improving momentum but not yet confirming a sustained bullish trend reversal.

If the rally persists, immediate resistance is located near $1,909. Additional supply zones are positioned around $2,018 and $2,107, followed by further resistance at $2,211.

Should bullish momentum strengthen, Ethereum could eventually target higher resistance levels near $2,388 and $2,746.

However, if the bears regain control, traders are closely monitoring whether ETH can maintain daily closes above $1,806. The next major support lies near $1,741.

A breakdown below that level could expose Ethereum to deeper support zones around $1,524 and $1,404, while $1,155 remains a key long-term support level if broader market conditions deteriorate.

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Key takeaways

• Ripple’s XRP is up nearly 11%, making it the second-best performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies.
• The coin could extend its rally past the $1.366 resistance level. 

XRP approaches $1.30

Cryptocurrency markets remained broadly higher on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading gains as it climbed above the $66,000 mark.

The positive momentum extended across major altcoins, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above $1,800 and XRP trading above $1.250. 

The rally comes as investor sentiment improves following reports that the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary peace agreement aimed at ending hostilities in the Middle East.

The easing of geopolitical tensions has encouraged investors to rotate back into risk assets, supporting a broad-based recovery across digital asset markets.

Officials from both countries have confirmed progress toward a peace deal that could significantly reduce tensions in the region.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister stated on state television that the agreement is expected to be formally signed on Friday. Meanwhile, Tehran’s senior military leadership described the development as a major victory.

Although the full details of the agreement have not yet been released, CNN reported that the ceasefire initiated in early April will likely be expanded in both scope and duration, allowing for an additional 60 days of negotiations.

One of the most closely watched aspects of the agreement is the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route for oil and energy supplies.

Iran’s National Security Council announced that the U.S. naval blockade would be lifted immediately under the agreement and that military operations would cease across multiple fronts, including the conflict involving Lebanon.

However, geopolitical risks have not entirely disappeared. Reports from Lebanon’s National News Agency indicate that Israel has expanded military operations in southern Lebanon, highlighting that regional tensions remain a factor for global markets.

XRP targets the $1.366 resistance level

The improving geopolitical backdrop has helped strengthen sentiment across the cryptocurrency market.

Evidence of this shift can be seen in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which rose to 20 on Monday. While the index remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone, the reading marks a notable improvement from 18 the previous day and just 8 a week earlier.

At press time, XRP is trading at $1.267, up by nearly 11% in the last 24 hours. The token remains trapped beneath several important technical resistance levels, indicating that sellers continue to dominate the larger trend even as momentum indicators begin to stabilize.

Although XRP remains under pressure, some technical signals indicate that downside momentum may be easing.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive on the daily chart, hinting at the possibility of a developing recovery.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 77, heading into the overbought territory. 

For XRP to build a stronger recovery, buyers must overcome several key resistance zones. The first major resistance is at $1.28, the 50-day EMA.

A surge above this level could see XRP extend its rally towards higher supply zones at $1.38 and $1.59. 

On the downside, XRP’s first major support level sits near the lower Bollinger Band around $1.03.

Below that, the psychologically important $1.00 level represents a key demand zone that could attract buyers if selling pressure intensifies.

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Key takeaways

• BTC is up 4% and is now trading above the $66,500 level.
• The rally comes following reports of a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

Bitcoin extends recovery following geopolitical breakthrough

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged above $66,600 on Monday after gaining 4% during the previous week, supported by improving global risk sentiment following reports of a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The easing of geopolitical tensions helped lift risk assets across financial markets, providing additional momentum for Bitcoin’s recovery after weeks of heightened uncertainty.

However, despite the rebound in price, institutional demand remains under pressure, with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording another week of net outflows.

Investor sentiment improved significantly after officials from both countries signaled progress toward a diplomatic resolution.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed that Tehran had finalized a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), stating that military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon, would cease immediately and permanently.

On the U.S. side, President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that he had authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade.

Further optimism emerged after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the finalized agreement is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also indicated that broader negotiations would continue during a proposed 60-day ceasefire period, with sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear program expected to be key discussion points.

The developments have reduced fears of a wider regional conflict, encouraging investors to rotate back into higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand continues to weaken

Despite improving macro sentiment, institutional flows remain a concern for Bitcoin bulls.

Data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $315.84 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of withdrawals since mid-May.

The persistent outflow trend suggests that institutional investors remain cautious, even as broader market sentiment improves.

Continued ETF selling could limit Bitcoin’s upside potential and increase the risk of renewed volatility if retail demand fails to offset institutional withdrawals.

Bitcoin’s technical outlook shows improving momentum

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart has flipped bullish as Bitcoin’s short-term momentum has improved, but the broader trend remains challenged.

BTC is currently trading above key support levels after recovering nearly 4% last week. However, the cryptocurrency remains below its major moving averages and a previously broken ascending trendline, indicating that the larger market structure remains bearish.

Momentum indicators are beginning to improve. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 71.

While these signals suggest stabilization, they are not yet strong enough to confirm a full trend reversal.

If the recovery continues, Bitcoin could surge past the 50-day EMA of $70,704 in the near term. A daily candle close above this level could allow BTC to extend its rally towards the $73,412 (100-day EMA) resistance point. 

However, if the bears regain control, the first major support level sits near $64,004. A break below this area could revive bearish pressure and increase the likelihood of a deeper corrective move despite recent signs of stabilization.

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between improving macro sentiment and weakening institutional participation.

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