Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP are starting the week on a more stable footing after last week’s declines.
• BTC is trading above $64,000 but remains below major moving averages, keeping the broader trend bearish.

Crypto market opens new weekly candle with signs of stability

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are showing resilience at the start of the week after experiencing notable declines during the previous trading period.

Bitcoin fell nearly 4% last week, while Ethereum and XRP dropped approximately 2% and 6%, respectively. 

Despite the weakness, all three assets have stabilized, with Bitcoin trading above $64,000, Ethereum holding the critical $1,700 support level, and XRP consolidating near $1.13.

For Bitcoin, traders are closely watching technical indicators for clues about whether the recent recovery can develop into a broader rebound.

Bitcoin remains below major resistance levels

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, but the broader technical outlook remains cautious. BTC continues to trade below its key moving averages, 50-day EMA: approximately $69,106, 100-day EMA: approximately $72,123, and 200-day EMA: approximately $77,748.

The fact that Bitcoin remains below all three indicators suggests that sellers still maintain control of the broader trend.

Adding to the bearish outlook, BTC recently broke below a rising trendline that had previously supported the market. That trendline, now acting as resistance near $74,238, reinforces the view that Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase.

Although the overall trend remains weak, some technical indicators suggest that downside momentum may be slowing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from deeply oversold levels and is currently hovering in the high-40 range.

This improvement indicates that selling pressure has eased, but the indicator remains around the neutral 50 mark, meaning a clear bullish reversal has not yet been confirmed.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, which is generally supportive for prices.

For Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum, buyers must overcome several resistance zones, including $69,106 (50-day EMA), $72,123 (100-day EMA), and $77,748 (200-day EMA).

A move above these levels would significantly improve the technical outlook and potentially signal the end of the current correction.

On the downside, the first major support level remains at $64,005.A decisive break below this area could expose Bitcoin to further losses and extend the existing downtrend.

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Key takeaways

• Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded about 4% over the past week, but overall market sentiment remains weak.
• Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts and increased pressure on risk assets.

Ethereum recovery faces macro headwinds

Ethereum has posted a modest 4% recovery over the past seven days as the broader cryptocurrency market staged a technical rebound. 

However, the bounce has done little to improve overall sentiment, which remains under pressure from worsening macroeconomic conditions.

Investor confidence took another hit after recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a tougher stance on inflation. 

His remarks suggested that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer, fueling concerns that interest rate hikes may still be on the table.

The shift has challenged earlier expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates this year, creating a less favorable environment for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Earlier in the year, many analysts expected one or two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Those expectations have weakened significantly as inflation continues to run above the central bank’s target.

Warsh’s comments reinforced concerns that policymakers remain focused on controlling inflation, even if tighter monetary conditions weigh on financial markets.

Historically, higher interest rates reduce liquidity and investor appetite for speculative assets, making cryptocurrencies particularly vulnerable during periods of monetary tightening.

Ethereum struggles at key resistance level

Ethereum’s recent recovery stalled near the $1,800 level, an area that previously served as support but has now become a significant resistance zone.

If selling pressure continues and ETH fails to reclaim $1,800, the next major support level sits near the April 2025 low of $1,400.

A move to that level would represent roughly an 18% decline from current prices and further deepen Ethereum’s yearly losses.

Among the largest cryptocurrencies, Ethereum has been one of the weakest performers, even lagging behind competitors such as Solana during the current market cycle.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved from oversold conditions but remains weak.

Currently hovering around 40, the indicator is approaching levels that could reinforce bearish momentum if selling pressure increases.

From a broader technical perspective, Ethereum’s weekly chart continues to reflect a fragile market structure.

Unless buyers successfully push the price above $1,800, analysts expect the downtrend to remain intact, increasing the likelihood of a retest of lower support zones.

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Key takeaways

• ZEC is still struggling under the $477-$500 zone. 
• Although momentum indicators show signs of stabilization, Zcash remains vulnerable to further downside as investors react to persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and rising rate-hike expectations. 

Zcash (ZEC) remains under pressure on Thursday as bearish sentiment continued to dominate the cryptocurrency market. ZEC is facing mounting resistance beneath the $500 mark as investors reduce exposure to risk assets.

Fed’s policy stance causes a negative market reaction

The broader crypto market weakened following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first post-meeting press conference on Wednesday.

Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations, investors reacted negatively to the central bank’s firm commitment to bringing inflation back to its long-term 2% target. The Fed’s emphasis on price stability signaled that policymakers are not yet prepared to pivot toward monetary easing.

Warsh’s comments reinforced expectations that higher interest rates could remain in place for longer. Market participants are even assigning a roughly 30% probability to a future rate hike, reviving concerns about tighter financial conditions and reduced liquidity for risk assets.

Investor confidence weakened further as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 15 on Thursday from 22 a day earlier, remaining firmly within the “Extreme Fear” zone. The reading highlights growing caution among traders and suggests subdued market participation in the near term.

ZEC price forecast: Zcash faces growing downside risks

Zcash has also remained on the defensive, recording three straight days of losses while trading below its 50-day EMA near $477. 

The continued inability to reclaim this level has reinforced bearish sentiment and increased the likelihood of further downside.

A sustained move lower could encourage additional de-risking among traders, placing the spotlight on key support zones near $434 and $376.

While the MACD histogram remains marginally positive, suggesting some recovery attempts may be forming, the Money Flow Index remains in the mid-40s, indicating relatively weak buying momentum compared with Monero.

The immediate resistance level remains the 50-day EMA at approximately $477. If buyers manage to regain control, attention could shift toward the upper boundary of the descending channel near $549.

On the downside, support is located near the 100-day EMA around $434, followed by the 200-day EMA near $376. 

Should bearish pressure intensify, the lower boundary of the descending channel near $279 could emerge as a critical medium-term support zone.

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Key takeaways

• XMR is down 2% and could record further losses in the near term
• The Fed’s hawkishness weighs on the broader crypto market.

Privacy coins remain under pressure amid weak risk appetite

Monero (XMR) continued its downward trajectory on Friday as bearish sentiment persisted across the cryptocurrency market. 

XMR slipped for a third consecutive session, remaining below the $330 level. 

The broader crypto market came under renewed pressure following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh during his first post-meeting press conference on Wednesday.

While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, investors reacted negatively to the central bank’s hawkish tone. 

Policymakers emphasized their commitment to restoring inflation to the long-term 2% target, prioritizing price stability over near-term monetary easing.

Warsh’s comments suggested the Fed remains comfortable maintaining its current policy stance and is not yet considering interest-rate cuts. Market participants have even begun pricing in the possibility of another rate increase, with current expectations implying a 30% probability of a hike at an upcoming policy meeting.

Risk appetite weakened further as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 15 on Thursday from 22 a day earlier, keeping the market firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. The decline highlights growing investor caution and reduced exposure to risk assets.

Monero price outlook: Correction continues below key resistance levels

Monero remains trapped below the Bollinger Bands middle line near $340 and all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

The 50-day EMA sits around $359, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs cluster near $366, creating a significant resistance zone overhead.

Despite the ongoing correction, technical indicators show signs of improving momentum. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) near 65 suggests steady capital inflows. 

However, these signals currently point to corrective rebounds rather than a broader trend reversal as long as XMR remains beneath key resistance levels.

Immediate resistance is located around the Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $340, followed by the 50-day EMA near $359. 

A stronger resistance zone emerges around $367, where the 100-day and 200-day EMAs converge. Beyond that, the upper Bollinger Band near $389 represents the next major hurdle for buyers.

On the downside, support is found near the lower Bollinger Band at approximately $291. A breakdown below this level could accelerate losses and trigger a deeper retracement despite the recent improvement in momentum indicators.

Monero remains vulnerable to further downside as macroeconomic uncertainty and restrictive monetary policy continue to weigh on investor sentiment. 

While technical indicators suggest some underlying buying interest, the privacy coins must reclaim key resistance levels before a more sustained recovery can take shape.

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Key takeaways

• While momentum indicators suggest downside pressure is easing, ETH remains trapped below multiple key moving averages. 
• Until buyers reclaim resistance levels above $1,800, the broader technical outlook remains cautious, with support around $1,741 likely to play a crucial role in determining the next major move.

ETH Open Interest falls to a multi-week low

Ethereum (ETH) derivatives markets remain subdued following weeks of price weakness, reflecting a cautious stance among leveraged traders.

After ETH fell below the $1,800 level, futures open interest dropped sharply, reaching 13.64 million ETH on Sunday, its lowest level since early May. 

Open interest saw a modest recovery on Monday after Ethereum rebounded above $1,700, but overall participation remains significantly lower than recent highs.

Open interest represents the total value of outstanding futures contracts. Since May 28, Ethereum futures markets have witnessed a decline of roughly 2 million ETH in open interest, highlighting a strong reduction in leveraged exposure and growing risk-off sentiment.

Funding rate data paints a similar picture of caution. Over the past two weeks, Ethereum funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative territory, signaling a lack of clear conviction from either bulls or bears.

Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets. Positive rates indicate bullish positioning, while negative rates suggest stronger bearish sentiment.

The market’s tone shifted notably after the June 5 correction, which pushed funding rates into negative territory following nearly a month of positive readings.

Although ETH has recovered modestly since then, bullish traders have struggled to regain control.

Spot-market indicators offer little evidence of aggressive accumulation. Ethereum exchange reserves have declined modestly over the past two days, reversing part of the increase recorded last week. 

While falling exchange balances can sometimes indicate accumulation, the move remains too small to signal strong demand.

Ethereum price analysis: ETH trapped below key resistance

Ethereum continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure despite recent stabilization.

On the 4-hour chart, ETH remains below its 20-day EMA near $1,794, the 50-day EMA around $1,955, and the 100-day EMA near $2,108

The clustering of these moving averages above current price levels indicates that upside attempts continue to face significant resistance.

Although the broader trend remains bearish, some technical indicators suggest downside momentum may be easing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed toward the mid-50s, indicating selling pressure is weakening but not yet signaling a bullish reversal.

For Ethereum to build a stronger recovery, bulls must reclaim several important resistance zones.

Immediate resistance at $1,794 could pave the way for an extended rally towards the $1,806 and $1,909 psychological levels.

A sustained move above these levels would significantly improve Ethereum’s outlook.

On the downside, Ethereum faces several important support areas. If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is seen at the $1,524 level, with another demand zone at $1,405. 

If selling pressure intensifies and these levels fail to hold, ETH could decline toward the next significant support area near $1,156.

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