Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight pullback, while whale wallets continued accumulating tokens.
• Wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA have reached their highest holdings since February 2023, while smaller investors have reduced exposure.
• The upcoming van Rossem hard fork, scheduled for Saturday, could act as a catalyst for ADA’s next move.

Cardano (ADA) edged lower on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after facing mild selling pressure the previous session. 

Despite the pullback, on-chain and derivatives data indicate that investor sentiment is gradually improving as large holders continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of a key network upgrade.

The combination of growing whale activity, strengthening derivatives metrics, and the upcoming van Rossem hard fork has increased expectations that ADA could stage a broader recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.

Whales continue accumulating ADA

On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear divergence between large and small Cardano holders.

Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now collectively own more than 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.

In contrast, wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by roughly 0.7% over the past four months.

The trend suggests institutional investors and high-net-worth holders continue accumulating Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. Historically, sustained whale accumulation has often preceded periods of stronger price performance.

Cardano’s development roadmap also received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that the van Rossem hard fork will be activated on Saturday following governance ratification earlier this week.

The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality alongside protocol enhancements designed to improve smart contract performance, developer capabilities, and overall network efficiency.

The hard fork could provide a near-term catalyst by strengthening Cardano’s ecosystem and increasing confidence among developers and investors.

Futures market activity also points to strengthening investor confidence.

According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has increased from approximately $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.

Rising Open Interest alongside stabilizing prices generally indicates that fresh capital is entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing positions.

Meanwhile, ADA’s funding rate has turned positive, reaching 0.0042%, suggesting traders holding long positions are once again willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.

Positive funding rates typically reflect improving market sentiment and growing expectations for higher prices.

Cardano price forecast: ADA still faces major resistance

Despite improving fundamentals, Cardano remains technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several major moving averages, preserving the broader bearish market structure.

Cardano remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.179, the 100-day EMA ($0.208), and the 200-day EMA ($0.276)

The token is also trading beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the broader downtrend remains intact below the trendline resistance near $0.207.

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, indicating neutral momentum without signaling either overbought or oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting bearish momentum is easing, although buying pressure remains too weak to confirm a sustained trend reversal.

If bulls regain momentum, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207–$0.208  (Trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

A successful break above the $0.207–$0.208 region would significantly improve Cardano’s medium-term outlook.

On the downside, traders should watch the immediate support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could see ADA retest the June 25 swing low of $0.1382. 

Cardano’s improving fundamentals are beginning to contrast with its still-cautious technical picture. Whale accumulation, rising Open Interest, and positive funding rates suggest confidence is gradually returning, while the upcoming van Rossem hard fork provides an additional potential catalyst.

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Key takeaways

• Pi Network (PI) is stabilizing above $0.07500 after more than two weeks of sustained selling pressure.
• Improving crypto market sentiment following softer U.S. inflation has boosted speculative interest in PI.
• PI open interest climbed from $9.11 million to $12.14 million, signaling renewed trader participation.

Pi Network (PI) traded above $0.07500 on Wednesday, showing early signs of stabilizing after more than two weeks of persistent losses.

The token’s recovery comes as broader cryptocurrency markets rebounded following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, improving investor sentiment and encouraging renewed interest in higher-risk digital assets.

Although PI remains in a broader downtrend, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum may be weakening.

Improving market sentiment boosts risk appetite

The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report helped ease concerns over additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, reducing pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

As market sentiment improved, investors showed greater willingness to return to speculative assets such as Pi Network.

CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose to 35 on Wednesday from 28 on Monday, reflecting a noticeable decline in market fear and improving investor confidence.

Historically, rising risk appetite has often supported increased trading activity in speculative cryptocurrencies.

Derivatives data points to growing interest in Pi Network. According to CoinAnk, PI futures open interest increased from $9.11 million to approximately $12.14 million over the past day.

The sharp increase suggests traders are opening new positions rather than closing existing ones, indicating renewed confidence and stronger speculative demand.

While rising open interest alone does not guarantee higher prices, it often supports increased market liquidity and stronger price momentum when accompanied by improving sentiment.

Pi Network technical analysis: Can PI reclaim $0.1000?

From a technical perspective, Pi Network is attempting to build a base near $0.07500, where a descending support trendline forming part of a falling channel continues to hold.

A Doji candlestick formed near this support during the previous trading session, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers and potentially marking the beginning of a short-term reversal.

The 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $0.06793, measured from the decline between $0.1998 and $0.1183, reinforces this support zone and increases the likelihood of a technical rebound.

If buying momentum strengthens, PI could target the following resistance levels:

• $0.09613 – 127.2% Fibonacci extension
• $0.1000 – Psychological resistance level

A decisive move above $0.09613 would significantly improve the short-term outlook and increase the probability of a recovery toward $0.1000.

Although Pi Network remains within a broader bearish trend, momentum indicators suggest downside pressure may be becoming exhausted.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to around 21, placing the token deep in oversold territory. Such readings often indicate that selling has become excessive and that a relief rally could emerge if buyers return.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below its signal line, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish. However, the indicator also suggests bearish momentum may be weakening after the recent decline.

The most important downside support remains the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $0.06793.

A daily close below this level would invalidate the current rebound scenario and could trigger a new phase of price discovery to the downside.

As long as PI holds above this support, the possibility of a recovery toward $0.09613 and eventually $0.1000 remains intact.

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Key takeaways

• Solana (SOL) has rebounded above its 50-day EMA at $76.82 after a 4% rally.
• Rising futures trading volume and positive funding rates point to growing bullish sentiment among retail traders.
• Solana ETFs have recorded two consecutive days of zero inflows, signaling muted institutional demand.

Solana (SOL) extended its recovery on Wednesday, climbing above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after gaining roughly 4% in the previous session.

The rebound comes as improving sentiment across the cryptocurrency market encourages renewed retail participation, while institutional investors remain cautious despite the broader market rally.

Retail traders return to Solana futures

Recent derivatives data suggests retail traders are becoming more optimistic about Solana’s short-term outlook.

According to CoinGlass, SOL futures open interest has remained stable at approximately $4.91 billion over the past 24 hours, indicating traders are maintaining existing leveraged positions rather than exiting the market.

Meanwhile, futures trading volume jumped 15% to around $6.90 billion, reflecting stronger market activity and continued position building.

Adding to the positive outlook, Solana’s funding rate remains in positive territory at approximately 0.0040%, suggesting traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions—a sign that bullish sentiment is strengthening among retail participants.

While retail activity has improved, institutional demand has yet to show similar strength.

Data from SoSoValue indicates that Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded two consecutive trading sessions with zero net inflows this week.

The lack of fresh ETF investment suggests traditional investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach despite the recent rebound in cryptocurrency prices.

This divergence between retail enthusiasm and institutional caution could influence the sustainability of Solana’s recovery.

Solana price analysis: $81.50 remains key breakout level

From a technical perspective, Solana has strengthened after reclaiming its 50-day EMA at $76.82.

The token is also trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $76.92, measured from the decline between $98.41 and $60.13, reinforcing the improving short-term structure.

However, SOL continues to face significant resistance from a descending trendline positioned near $81.50, while the 200-day EMA at $94.52 remains a major long-term barrier.

A decisive daily close above $81.50 would confirm a breakout from the prevailing downtrend and could trigger a move toward the $88.56 resistance and the 200-day EMA at $94.52.

Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum is slowly building. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 54, indicating modest buying pressure without entering overbought territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a bullish crossover near its signal line, reflecting a neutral-to-positive momentum shift that could support additional upside if buying pressure continues.

If Solana encounters renewed selling pressure, traders will likely monitor the following support levels:

• 50-day EMA: $76.82
• Previous ascending trendline: $68.88
• Cycle low: $60.13

Holding above the 50-day EMA would help preserve the current recovery, while a break below it could expose SOL to a deeper pullback toward the lower support zones.

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Key takeaways

• Solana (SOL) has fallen below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling increasing bearish pressure.
• The MACD has turned bearish, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the neutral level.
• Key support sits at $67.50, the level that previously sparked a rebound in late June. 

Solana (SOL) remained under pressure on Tuesday, extending its recent weakness as the token slipped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical development that points to growing bearish momentum.

At the time of writing, SOL was trading below $75.00, remaining beneath both the 50-day EMA at $76.63 and the 200-day EMA at $97.65. The inability to reclaim these key technical levels suggests sellers continue to dominate the market.

Momentum indicators turn increasingly bearish

Technical indicators are signaling that bullish momentum is fading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, producing fresh bearish histogram bars that indicate strengthening downward momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 46, slipping below the neutral 50 mark. This suggests buying pressure is weakening while sellers gradually regain control of the market.

Together, these indicators reinforce the likelihood of continued downside unless market sentiment improves.

The most important support for Solana currently lies around $67.50. This horizontal support level previously triggered a notable rebound in late June and could once again attract buyers if selling pressure intensifies.

A decisive break below $67.50 would likely increase the risk of a deeper correction and could encourage additional bearish positioning.

For Solana to improve its short-term outlook, buyers must first reclaim the 50-day EMA near $76.63, which now serves as immediate resistance.

A sustained breakout above this level could open the door for a move toward the 200-day EMA around $97.65, where stronger selling pressure is expected to emerge.

Solana remains technically vulnerable after falling below its 50-day EMA, with bearish momentum indicators suggesting sellers remain in control. As long as SOL trades beneath its major moving averages, the risk of further downside persists. 

Traders will be closely watching the $67.50 support level, while any meaningful recovery will depend on the token reclaiming the 50-day EMA and restoring bullish momentum.

The post Solana slips below 50-Day EMA as bearish momentum strengthens appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) extends losses as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions fueled a risk-off market environment.
• XLM is currently hovering near critical support around $0.177.
• XLM could test support near $0.173 if selling pressure intensifies.

Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure on Tuesday as investors reduced exposure to risk assets following escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

The broader cryptocurrency market weakened after renewed military developments in the Middle East increased uncertainty, pushing investors toward safer assets while weighing on altcoins.

US-Iran escalation dampens investor confidence

According to reports, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American forces carried out additional strikes on Iranian military targets while maintaining more than 50,000 U.S. troops across the Middle East.

Iranian state-affiliated media also reported strikes in southern Iran, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had disabled two supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing them of violating navigation warnings.

The IRGC warned that continued military activity in the region could delay the reopening of the strategic waterway and disrupt global energy supplies.

The heightened geopolitical tensions pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil above $80 per barrel, reinforcing a broader risk-off mood across financial markets and placing additional pressure on cryptocurrencies such as XLM.

Futures market data indicates traders are becoming increasingly cautious on both assets.

According to CoinGlass, XLM open interest dropped to approximately $182.21 million, extending the decline from elevated levels recorded in June.

Falling open interest alongside declining prices often signals that traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones, reflecting weakening market participation and reduced confidence.

Funding rates have also turned negative for XLM and now read -0.0021%. Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying long-position holders, highlighting increased demand for bearish positions in the perpetual futures market.

Stellar (XLM) price analysis: Momentum remains weak

Stellar also continues to struggle as it trades near $0.179, below its major moving averages.

Current resistance levels include the 50-day EMA at $0.186, the 100-day EMA ($0.190), and the 200-day EMA ($0.196)

The RSI remains near 41, reflecting subdued momentum, while the MACD continues to trend in negative territory, suggesting buyers have yet to regain control.

The first major support is located near $0.177, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $0.173.

If bearish momentum strengthens, XLM could decline toward a broader support zone near $0.142.

Should buyers return, resistance awaits at $0.186, $0.190, and $0.196, with additional upside barriers near $0.200, $0.218, $0.237, and $0.260.

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