Solana price forecast: Bears still targeting the $140 support

Key takeaways

  • SOL has failed to push above the 20-day EMA and could now test the $140 support level.
  • If the bulls fail to defend the $140 support, SOL could dip further towards $123 in the short term.

SOL dips 1% amid broader bearish performance

This has been a net negative week for the cryptocurrency so far. The ongoing Middle East crisis has wiped out billions of dollars from the crypto market over the past few days, and more downward correction is expected.

One of the worst performers among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap is Solana (SOL). The coin has lost 8% of its value over the last seven days and could face further downward movement, fueled by market fundamentals and technical signals.

The bearish performance coincides with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies underperforming. If the Israel-Iran conflict continues, SOL could record further losses in the coming days.

The neutral interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday also didn’t help SOL and other major cryptocurrencies.

Bears target the $140 support level

So far, the bulls have done an excellent job in defending SOL’s price around the $145 level. However, the cryptocurrency’s price action remains bearish and could test the $140 support level in the coming hours or days.

Buyers pushed SOL above the 20-day EMA ($154) earlier this week. However, they couldn’t clear the 50-day SMA ($160) hurdle. This resulted in the bears pushing the price down towards the critical $140 support level.

SOL price action

If the $140 level fails to hold, the SOL/USDT pair will complete a bearish H&S pattern and could eventually drop to the next support levels at $123 and $110. The RSI at 42 indicates that SOL is edging into the oversold territory.

However, if the bulls regain control and push the price above the 50-day SMA, it suggests strong buying near $140. SOL going above the 50-day SMA could keep the price between $140 and $185 for a while. The market will switch bullish once SOL closes above the $185 psychological level.

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Bitcoin stays above $104k as Fed leaves interest rate unchanged

Key takeaways

  • BTC continues to trade above the $104k level despite the ongoing Middle East crisis.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but expects inflation to decline in the coming months.

Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged

The major financial news of the week took place on Wednesday, with the FOMC confirming what many analysts already predicted. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December.

Despite that, the apex bank stated that it expects inflation to remain elevated and sees lower economic growth ahead. Furthermore, the Fed expects to make two rate reductions later this year, as previously stated.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, didn’t react to this news as the market had already priced it in. However, Bitcoin could rally higher in the near term as traders anticipate two rate cuts before the end of the year. At press time, the price of Bitcoin continues to trade around $104,700. 

BTC could rally towards $106k amid improved technicals

The market fundamentals continue to be poor, with the United States now increasingly involved in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. However, technical indicators favour a short-term rally for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

BTC surged above the 20-day exponential moving average ($105,851) on Monday. However, the bulls failed to sustain the higher level, and it dropped to the 50-day SMA on Tuesday.

The relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the midpoint, signalling a possible rally in the near term. If Bitcoin breaks above the 20-day EMA in the short term, it could rally higher towards a new all-time high at $112k.

However, if the bears remain in control and push the price below the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could plunge to $100,000. Bulls will likely defend the $100k psychological level, as any drop below that could see Bitcoin test the $93k support level.

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DeFi lending protocols hold nearly $60B in assets amid new wave of adoption: report

  • DeFi lending TVL surged past $50B (approaching $60B), up 60% in a year, driven by institutionalization.
  • ‘DeFi mullet’ trend sees apps embed DeFi for yield/loans (e.g., Coinbase-Morpho originated $300M loans).
  • Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) like US Treasuries are increasingly used as collateral and yield sources in DeFi.

A significant, albeit understated, transformation is reshaping the landscape of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Moving beyond the speculative frenzy and often dubious high yields that characterized its previous bull market, the current growth in DeFi is being fueled by its evolution into a foundational financial layer for user-facing applications and a notable increase in institutional participation.

This maturation is particularly evident in the DeFi lending sector, which has seen its total value locked (TVL) soar.

According to a Wednesday report by analytics firm Artemis and on-chain yield platform Vaults.fyi, the TVL across top DeFi lending protocols—including prominent names like Aave, Euler, Spark, and Morpho—has surged past the $50 billion mark and is now approaching $60 billion.

This represents a substantial 60% growth over the past year alone. The report attributes this impressive expansion to “rapid institutionalization and increasingly sophisticated risk management tools.”

“These are not merely yield platforms; they are evolving into modular financial networks undergoing rapid institutionalization,” the authors of the report stated, highlighting a fundamental shift in how these protocols are being utilized and perceived.

The ‘DeFi mullet’: seamless integration for mainstream users

One of the key trends identified in the report is the rise of the “DeFi mullet” – a strategy where user-facing applications quietly embed DeFi infrastructure on their backend to offer financial services like yield generation or loans.

These complex DeFi operations are abstracted away from the end-user, creating a more seamless and familiar experience, akin to traditional fintech applications.

The report describes this as: “fintech front-end, DeFi backend.”

A prime example of this is Coinbase, where users can borrow against their Bitcoin (BTC) holdings through a system powered by DeFi lender Morpho’s backend infrastructure.

This integration has already originated over $300 million in loans as of this month, the report pointed out.

Similarly, Bitget Wallet’s integration with lending protocol Aave offers users a 5% yield on their USDC and USDT stablecoin holdings across various chains, all without requiring them to leave the crypto wallet app.

While not strictly DeFi, PayPal is also employing a similar model with its PYUSD stablecoin, offering yields near 3.7% to PayPal and Venmo wallet users.

The report suggests that other crypto-friendly fintech firms boasting large user bases, such as Robinhood or Revolut, may soon adopt this strategy.

By offering services like stablecoin credit lines and asset-backed loans through DeFi markets, these firms could tap into new fee-based revenue streams while introducing DeFi’s benefits to a wider audience.

Bridging worlds: tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) enter DeFi

A significant development fueling DeFi’s growth is the increasing integration of tokenized versions of traditional financial instruments, commonly referred to as real-world assets (RWAs).

DeFi protocols are progressively introducing use cases for tokenized US Treasuries, credit funds, and other conventional assets.

These tokenized RWAs can serve as collateral for loans, earn yield directly within DeFi protocols, or be bundled into more complex investment strategies, thereby bridging the gap between traditional finance and the decentralized digital economy.

The tokenization of investment strategies is also gaining traction.

Pendle, a protocol that allows users to split yield streams from the principal of an asset, now manages over $4 billion in TVL, a significant portion of which is in tokenized stablecoin yield products.

Meanwhile, platforms like Ethena, with its sUSDe and similar yield-bearing tokens, have introduced products that deliver returns exceeding 8% through sophisticated strategies such as cash-and-carry trades, all while abstracting the operational complexities away from the end-user.

The rise of on-chain asset managers: professionalizing DeFi investment

A less visible but critically important trend highlighted in the report is the emergence of crypto-native asset managers.

Firms such as Gauntlet, Re7, and Steakhouse Financial are playing an increasingly influential role by allocating capital across DeFi ecosystems using professionally managed strategies.

Their function closely resembles that of traditional asset managers in conventional finance.

These on-chain asset managers are becoming deeply embedded in the governance of DeFi protocols.

They actively participate in fine-tuning risk parameters and strategically deploy capital across a diverse range of structured yield products, tokenized RWAs, and modular lending markets.

The report noted that the capital under management within this specialized sector has grown fourfold since January, ballooning from $1 billion to over $4 billion, underscoring the rapid professionalization and institutionalization of DeFi investment strategies.

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Crypto scams spike as meme coins, weak laws fuel $2.1B crime wave

  • Over 50% of some crypto protocol volumes involve stolen funds.
  • $2.1 billion stolen via crypto hacks so far in 2025.
  • Tron blockchain “Black U” market worth up to $10 billion.

The crypto industry is facing a fresh wave of crime, driven by a rise in politically backed meme coins and legal loopholes that continue to shield malicious actors.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT, known for tracking on-chain fraud, warned in a recent post on X that crypto-related crimes have entered a “supercycle”, with fraudulent activities becoming more sophisticated and widespread.

His comments come amid a broader industry reckoning, as high-value hacks, phishing schemes, and the misuse of decentralised protocols threaten to undermine trust in the space.

Outdated court rulings and unchecked influencers add to the problem

According to ZachXBT, one of the major reasons behind the crime surge is the way courts continue to side with exploiters of smart contracts due to obsolete legal frameworks.

In many cases, those who manipulate decentralised systems walk free because judges interpret code-based exploits as fair use rather than theft.

He also highlighted the role of influencers and key opinion leaders (KOLs) who promote fraudulent crypto projects without facing any consequences.

In jurisdictions where failing to disclose paid advertisements is illegal, enforcement remains weak or non-existent.

ZachXBT estimated that regulators could have made between $50 million and $100 million in fines over the years by holding such individuals and projects accountable.

In a tweet, he remarked that “if you ever wanted the opportunity to extract from the industry, there’s not been much of a better time,” referencing the sense of lawlessness currently dominating the ecosystem.

He added that over half of all transaction volume in certain protocols involves stolen funds, and yet teams continue to collect fees without scrutiny.

Criminals exploit blockchain transparency and weak oversight

While blockchain technology allows for full transaction transparency, which helps trace illicit funds, ZachXBT said that it also enables crime by giving bad actors insight into network activity and vulnerabilities.

North Korean-linked groups such as Lazarus have allegedly taken advantage of this.

ZachXBT suggested that laundering groups and OTC brokers have successfully processed stolen funds from platforms like Bybit, DMM Bitcoin, and WazirX.

These operations often go undetected for extended periods due to the volume and complexity of transactions involved.

He also claimed that a shadow market, dubbed “Black U,” has emerged on the Tron blockchain, with an estimated value between $5 billion and $10 billion.

Much of this activity is suspected to involve laundering operations that are difficult to track despite blockchain records.

Losses continue to mount across the industry in 2025

ZachXBT’s warning coincides with mounting evidence of damage. According to blockchain security firm CertiK, more than $2.1 billion has been lost to crypto attacks in 2025 so far.

In May alone, cybersecurity company PeckShield reported 20 significant crypto hacks amounting to $244.1 million in stolen assets.

Although this marks a 39.29% decrease from April, the scale of ongoing theft remains alarming.

The recent rise in data leaks has further exposed user vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for stronger protections.

ZachXBT concluded his remarks by questioning whether systemic change would only occur after large-scale losses force regulators to act.

For now, the combination of speculative mania, regulatory gaps, and unchecked promotion continues to create a fertile environment for crypto-related crime.

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