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Ethereum Merge reminding me of COVID lockdowns

Ugh. Not a good couple of weeks for Ethereum investors, as the DeFi King has dipped down below $1700, now trading 55% below its open of $3722 back on New Year’s Day.

BTC Dominates

Of further concern for fans of Vitalik’s creation will be the underperformance against Bitcoin over the last month or so. While the market as a whole has plummeted amid the macro sentiment and fallout from the Terra circus, there have at least been small relief rallies over the last few days for Bitcoin. Ethereum, on the other hand, has been pretty much constantly dropping.

The chart below shows it performance against Bitcoin. ETH strongly outperformed BTC through 2020 and 2021, as the bull market raged and ETH leveraged its higher volatility and smaller market cap. However, as the market has turned this year, we have seen BTC re-assert its dominance over all things crypto, as has historically been the case in pullback periods.

Additional Problems

Digging into the fundamentals here throws up factors for ETH’s decline beyond simply the bloodbath taking place across the board. That is the fabled Merge, which has been promised, postponed and re-promised for as long as crypto enthusiasts can remember. At this point, the Merge triggers traumatic memories in my mind of lockdown back home in Ireland.

I think we had five lockdowns total, ranging from three weeks to 6 months long. Each one brought promises that it was the last, but they simply kept on coming, thick and fast. 8 PM curfews, 2KM perimeters around one’s house, exercise quotas and more, it was a constant kick-the-can-down-the-road exercise as our government repeatedly fell short of its own targets and failed to plan accordingly.

While the ETH Merge is still seemingly slated for August, last week was a reminder that it is far from set in stone, as it hit a stumbling block when the Beacon Chain went through a seven-block reorganisation (or reorg) last week.  To be exact, seven blocks from number 3,887,075 to 3,887,081 were knocked out of the Beacon Chain between 08:55:23 and 08:56:35 AM UTC.

To translate this into non-computer whizz speak, a reorg is the name given to an event when a block that was part of the main chain (the canonical chain) gets knocked off due to a competing block beating it out. Typically, this can occur via either a malicious attack or a bug.

Ethereum developer Preston Van Loon suggested that in this instance it happened due to a “non-trivial segmentation” of new and old client node software, ruling out any malice. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin declared his theory a “good hypothesis.”

My Thoughts

This is a hiccup but nothing to be concerned about in the long-term. However, it certainly hammered home how tenuous the slated August timeline. While many have long since given up on predicting the timing of this elusive overhaul, the enormity and scale of the project has certainly been underestimated by the cryptocurrency community.

The latest dip in Ethereum – it wobbled significantly last week while Bitcoin trudged along just fine – can likely be attributed to this extra doubt over the roadmap. With the upgrade largely priced in for August, and the market uber-sensitive right now as investors simply try to survive, news like this will always trigger selling.

With sentiment worse in the wider market than at any point post the GFC, and cryptocurrency facing all sorts of difficult questions in the aftermath of the Terra implosion, the space simply needs Ethereum to hold up its end of the bargain and pull through with a successful Merge.

I believe we are still on course for that in August – with the Ropsten testnet merge providing some good news earlier today, one of the deciding events before application to the mainnet. But then again, I believed lockdown would last three weeks, and I ended up spending so much time in my bedroom over the last two years that I forgot what the sky looked like.

Let’s hope I’m not repeating my past mistakes here.

The post Ethereum Merge reminding me of COVID lockdowns appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Binance Coin inches closer to yearly support despite sideways momentum

June has started quite positively for most coins including BNB. The coin however appears to have slowed down. After a strong relief rally, BNB was firmly rejected at the $330 resistance. Ever since the coin has fallen quite substantially. Here are some of the highlights:

  • BNB has fallen below $300 despite a decisive bull run over the past week

  • The coin could fall back to its $260 yearly support before any leg up

  • But a close above $300 will invalidate this bearish thesis

Data Source: TradingView

BNB price prediction and analysis

The relief rally that we have seen in crypto over the last 7 days has been quite refreshing. However, BNB appears to have lost a lot of momentum after failing to surge past the $330 resistance. There could however be more downside. After trading sideways for the best part of the day, BNB does not appear to have any bullish momentum left. 

Instead, the coin will likely slip further and bottom around its $260 support. This will represent a drop of around 15%. Now, even though a 15% decline is big, it’s not a serious sell-off. If anything, we expect BNB to hold $260 strongly in the coming weeks. 

However, there is still a possibility for more gains if the token can push above $300. After all, the coin is just $10 away from this price. But despite this, due to a lack of enough bullish momentum, we don’t see BNB jumping above $300 in the coming days.

How to trade BNB for now

The downside risk for BNB is capped at $260. Yes, the coin will drop, but bears don’t have enough initiative to breach the strong $260 support. Also, broader sentiment in crypto is getting better.

So, a good play would be to wait for the coin to hit $260 before buying. Also, if BNB surges above $300, you can still buy and exit at $330.

The post Binance Coin inches closer to yearly support despite sideways momentum appeared first on CoinJournal.

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This bullish GALA setup could trigger a 54% upswing

GALA appears to have been on a three-week price consolidation phase. The coin has shown great resilience during this period, and it may be poised for a very decisive bull run. However, this is a long entry position that requires a bit of patience. Here are the highlights to keep in mind:

  • GALA’s consolidation has kept bear pressure off despite market headwinds

  • The coin could break and swing by 54% in the green

  • However, this will likely take a few weeks to materialize

Data Source: TradingView 

GALA: The long play for 50% returns

One thing we have learned about GALA over the past month is just how resilient it can be. Gaming and metaverse coins have not had a good year. But after falling sharply, GALA has managed to recover and has maintained a three-week price consolidation phase. The coin is now facing a decisive breakout, and here is why. 

First, all technical indicators appear to suggest a bull run is on the cards. The RSI reading is in the bullish territory while the price action remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Also, sentiment in the market is now turning positive.

If these conditions hold over the coming weeks, GALA has the potential to swing up by a whopping 54%. This surge will also push the coin above the crucial psychological zone of $0.12. Besides, GALA remains above several support zones, so downside risks are very minimal right now.

How to enter this GALA setup?

As noted above, the bullish GALA setup is long-term. In fact, we expect some volatility in between as the coin tries to surge to $0.12.

So, if you want to enter this setup, you must take a long position. Some of these gains could be realized in a month or so. It requires patience and trading discipline.

The post This bullish GALA setup could trigger a 54% upswing appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Arweave could reclaim $15 support – Should you buy?

Arweave (AR) cryptocurrency logo against a global background

Arweave has seen gains in three straight trading sessions. The coin is looking up and could reclaim the important $15 support. But will this trigger a major bull run, and how far can AR actually go? The detailed analysis is below but first, key highlights:

  • AR has seen a modest bull run in the last 7 days.

  • The coin is up by around 20% as sentiment in crypto improves.

  • Arweave could test $18 in the coming days if this trend holds.

Data Source: TradingView

Arweave price analysis: The Short term setup

The crypto market has been very volatile for the better part of 2022. Every time we think we are about to see a decisive turn, prices just crash once more. June has started quite well for most coins. In fact, the overall market cap for the entire industry has gone up by around 20%. 

Arweave appears to be following this broader trend in the market. It is likely the coin will continue rising in fact, once the $15 resistance is breached, AR could target $18 next in a short-term burst of bullish activity. This will represent a 25% gain from the current price. 

The big challenge however for AR bulls will be to keep the momentum going. As we have seen before, most bullish runs in crypto this year have often been pushed by dip buyers. At some point, these short-term traders will cash out. We believe for AR; the cash-out price is $18. So, once the coin starts to get close to that threshold, expect it to pull back to around $13.

Should you buy Arweave?

AR offers a very decent short-term play. Once it crosses $15, there could be a buying opportunity with an exit price of $18. 

Also, from a longer-term point of view, AR is heavily discounted right now. The coin has the required fundamentals to offer double-digit returns in the coming 6 months.

The post Arweave could reclaim $15 support – Should you buy? appeared first on CoinJournal.

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These Indicators show LUNA could grow 4x in the near term

When Terra rebranded into Terra Classic, there was a bit of fun fare. But investors did not really buy into the idea. As a result, Terra 2.0 plummeted shortly after launching. The coin has lost 85% from its airdrop price. But there is an opportunity for LUNA to actually deliver astonishing short-term gains. Here are the highlights.

  • After massive volatility, LUNA appears to have established strong support at $3.5.

  • The coin has also established a trading range between $3.5 and $10.25.

  • We expect this range to come into play over the coming weeks.

Data Source: TradingView

How LUNA could deliver 4x growth

Our thesis on LUNA’s short-term bullish setup is based on the range mentioned above. You see, despite facing massive volatility, the coin has established a consistent range between $3.5 and $10. Also, $3.5 is now the strongest support zone, and despite massive selling pressure, LUNA has managed to keep the price above this. 

A consolidation phase is now happening, and in the coming days, LUNA could easily retrace its $3.5 to $10.25 range. This will deliver gains of nearly 3x from the current price. However, we don’t think $10.25 will be the end of everything. 

If LUNA is able to get to double digits within a short time, it could trigger immense demand that could deliver more returns. Besides, there is a very limited downside risk to this setup. Even if LUNA loses the $3.5 support, we expect it to jump right back up in no time.

LUNA’s long-term prospects?

The volatility around LUNA is not going to abate soon. However, we expect the price to be a bit more predictable within the $3.5 and $10.25 range. 

LUNA will likely remain within this range for a few months before it finds any serious upward momentum. The good news however is that downside risk appears to have eased a bit.

The post These Indicators show LUNA could grow 4x in the near term appeared first on CoinJournal.