Autor: dot-traders

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 during Wednesday’s Asian session.
• Rising oil prices added inflation concerns ahead of the FOMC minutes, keeping interest-rate expectations in focus.
• BTC’s immediate support lies around 80,000–82,000, while a sustained break above $87,000 could put $100,000 in focus.

Bitcoin weakened Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and assessed renewed inflation risks from rising oil prices.

Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 during Asian trading despite a return to inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. 

The moves highlight uncertainty over monetary policy. Although expectations for an October rate increase have eased, the analysis indicates that investors continue to anticipate a significant possibility of further tightening by December.

ETF inflows return, but Bitcoin struggles to advance

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $118.8 million in net inflows on October 6, following $89.8 million in outflows on October 5, according to Farside figures cited in the report.

The reversal offered a supportive demand signal, but it did not prevent Bitcoin from falling below $84,000 the following morning.

The uneven flows suggest that investment demand has yet to provide consistent backing for a sustained advance. Continued inflows would strengthen the recovery case, particularly if accompanied by firmer spot buying.

The FOMC minutes could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps. A stronger preference for additional rate increases could pressure both assets. Higher interest rates raise the appeal of interest-bearing investments and increase the opportunity cost of holding gold or Bitcoin.

A more patient policy tone could provide support, but rising energy prices complicate that outlook.

Oil advanced Wednesday as a storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico and attacks in the Middle East raised concerns about supply disruptions. If higher energy costs sustain inflation, expectations for further monetary tightening could strengthen.

Bitcoin price outlook: $80,000 support remains crucial

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows consolidation within an ascending broadening wedge, with immediate support around $80,000–$82,000.

Holding that zone would preserve the constructive near-term scenario outlined in the analysis. A sustained move above $87,000 could then put the $100,000 level in focus.

A break below $80,000 would weaken that setup and expose the 70,000–75,000 range. Further losses below $70,000 could bring support around $65,000 into view.

On the weekly chart, analysts identify a longer-term support zone between $50,000 and $60,000 and a potential cup formation within an ascending channel.

A future breakout above $100,000 could support an extension toward $150,000 under that bullish scenario. Those levels remain conditional technical projections rather than assured outcomes.

Bitcoin’s renewed ETF inflows provide encouragement, but stronger and more persistent demand would be needed to absorb selling and sustain a breakout.

The immediate technical focus remains on defending $80,000–$82,000 and overcoming $87,000 resistance. 

Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes and energy-driven inflation concerns could influence both Bitcoin and gold through changes in rate expectations.

Failure to hold Bitcoin’s nearby support would instead increase the risk of a deeper correction.

The post Bitcoin slips below $84,000 ahead of FOMC minutes appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio fell to 0.68, its lowest reading in more than a month.
• CryptoQuant data flagged overheated spot and futures conditions, with sell-side dominance among large futures orders.
• Immediate support lies at $0.088, followed by $0.086 and $0.085; reclaiming $0.093 would ease bearish pressure.

Dogecoin extended its losses Wednesday, trading near $0.090 as increasingly bearish derivatives positioning and fading technical momentum weighed on the meme coin.

DOGE has declined more than 5% so far this week. Although the price remains above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, its failure to recover the 200-day EMA leaves the near-term outlook vulnerable.

Market data and price prediction also point to a growing preference for short positions, while large futures orders show stronger selling activity.

Dogecoin long-to-short ratio drops to a monthly low

CoinGlass’ Dogecoin long-to-short ratio stood at 0.85 on Wednesday, its lowest level in more than a month.

A reading below one indicates that short positioning outweighs long positioning within the tracked dataset. The decline therefore suggests traders have become more bearish as DOGE’s weekly losses deepen.

However, the ratio measures positioning rather than guaranteeing the direction of the next price move. A crowded bearish trade can also become vulnerable to a reversal if buying demand returns.

For now, the reading reinforces the cautious tone surrounding Dogecoin.

CryptoQuant’s summary data identified overheating conditions across Dogecoin’s spot and futures markets.

The platform also highlighted large orders in the futures market, with sell-side activity dominating. Taken together, those signals suggest elevated trading activity is occurring alongside pressure from sellers.

Overheating alone does not establish that prices must decline. In this case, however, the sell-side imbalance and weaker long-to-short ratio support a bearish interpretation of the market snapshot.

DOGE struggles below its 200-Day moving average

Dogecoin remained below its 200-day EMA near $0.093, making that level an immediate obstacle to recovery.

The price continued to hold above the 50-day EMA at $0.088 and the 100-day EMA at $0.086. These levels indicate that some underlying support remains despite the recent pullback.

Momentum indicators were less supportive. The Relative Strength Index hovered near 48, slightly below its neutral midpoint of 50, while the MACD line was marginally negative.

Together, those readings suggest buyers have lost momentum without the market yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

Immediate support sits around $0.088, where the 50-day EMA aligns with a horizontal price level.

If that support fails, the next reference points are the 100-day EMA at $0.086 and the former trendline breakout area near $0.085. A daily close below this zone would weaken the technical structure and bring the deeper horizontal support at $0.070 into focus.

For a recovery, DOGE first needs to reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.093. A sustained move above it would ease immediate bearish pressure and shift attention toward resistance around $0.102.

Until then, Dogecoin faces a test of nearby support as bearish positioning and subdued momentum limit its recovery prospects.

The post Dogecoin dips 5% this week as bearish positioning puts $0.088 support in focus appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin has dropped below $86,000 on Tuesday after gaining more than 12% across three consecutive positive weeks.
• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $90 million following last week’s massive inflow. 
• Resistance stands at $87,599 and near $90,000, while $85,000 remains immediate support.

Bitcoin consolidates after three weeks of gains

Bitcoin held below $86,000 on Tuesday, preserving a recovery of more than 12% since mid-September as ETF demand and shifting interest-rate expectations supported sentiment.

The cryptocurrency has recorded three consecutive weekly gains and is approaching resistance that could determine whether buyers extend the advance toward $90,000.

Its technical structure remains constructive across daily and weekly charts. However, some daily momentum readings have moderated, suggesting consolidation near recent highs rather than an uninterrupted climb.

Holding the nearby $85,000 support level would help preserve that bullish structure. A break below it would increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.

The result marked a third consecutive positive week, showing that demand through these products continued alongside bitcoin’s price recovery.

However, the week began negatively, with the funds recording an outflow of $90 million on Monday. 

Repeated inflows provide a supportive backdrop, although they do not guarantee further gains. Their significance will depend on whether buying persists and how it compares with selling elsewhere in the market.

An acceleration in inflows would strengthen the demand picture as bitcoin approaches overhead resistance. Conversely, weaker flows could leave the recovery more dependent on other buyers.

For now, ETF activity remains one of the factors supporting the recent advance.

Weak payrolls reduce October hike expectations

Investors also scaled back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase after Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report.

September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, falling short of the expected 90,000 increase. August’s gain was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000.

Following the report, CME FedWatch placed the probability of an October rate hike at 18.3% on Monday, down from approximately 70% the previous week.

Reduced expectations for tightening can support risk assets by easing concerns about more restrictive financial conditions.

However, lower hike odds are not a promise of easier policy. They reflect market pricing that can change as additional economic data becomes available.

Bitcoin technical forecast: Weekly resistance stands between BTC and $90,000

On the weekly chart, bitcoin faces initial resistance at $87,599, the 50% retracement between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199.

A successful close above that level would bring the 100-week simple moving average at approximately $89,832 into focus, followed by the psychological $90,000 threshold.

Weekly momentum supports the recovery. The Relative Strength Index is around 62 and rising, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows expanding positive histogram bars.

If resistance holds and a broader correction develops, the cited downside references include the $78,490 Fibonacci level and the 50-day SMA near $77,201.

The daily chart shows bitcoin above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias.

The daily RSI stands near 67, indicating strong momentum just below conventional overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has eased toward zero, suggesting upward pressure is slowing.

Immediate support lies at $85,000. A daily close below that floor would weaken the consolidation structure and expose the 50-day EMA near $79,189.

Further below, the 100-day EMA at $75,367 and the 200-day EMA near $74,994 form a deeper support area. More distant horizontal levels sit at $66,500 and $62,300.

Bitcoin’s recovery remains intact, but clearing $87,599 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers can carry the move toward $90,000.

The post Bitcoin slips below $86k as ETF outflows cap recovery efforts appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Zcash trades around $1,348 on Tuesday, holding modest gains that began Sunday.
• NU7 is active on the public testnet, with a mainnet decision scheduled for Oct. 20 and deployment targeted for Nov. 5.
• Improving momentum supports recovery prospects, but ZEC must clear resistance around $1,377–$1,384. 

Zcash is consolidating below $1,348 on Tuesday, maintaining modest gains from Sunday as investors assess slower ETF withdrawals and progress toward the network’s next upgrade.

The privacy-focused cryptocurrency faces a mixed near-term picture. Momentum indicators are improving, but its price remains below two important moving averages on the four-hour chart.

Meanwhile, smaller withdrawals from Grayscale’s Zcash-focused fund suggest redemption pressure has moderated. 

However, outflows remain negative, meaning the latest figures indicate reduced selling through that channel rather than renewed net buying.

The combination provides a more supportive backdrop for recovery, although a sustained price breakout has yet to materialize.

NU7 tests faster blocks and revised mining rewards

Zcash’s NU7 upgrade is now active on the public testnet. Developers are scheduled to decide on mainnet activation on Oct. 20, with Nov. 5 remaining the target deployment date.

The upgrade reduces targeted block spacing from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Producing blocks more frequently could shorten confirmation waits, although it does not guarantee that every transaction will complete three times faster. 

Actual block intervals and the confirmation requirements set by individual services still matter.

NU7 also introduces a Network Sustainability Mechanism that redirects 60% of transaction fees toward future mining rewards. Another change limits shielded actions to help reduce network spam.

If activated on mainnet, the upgrade would disable legacy Sprout version 4 transactions. Users with funds remaining in that pool would need to move them beforehand to retain the ability to spend them through the existing system.

These changes remain in testing. Their potential benefits have not yet been deployed across the live Zcash network.

Grayscale’s ZCSH fund recorded approximately $3.57 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue data.

That followed $93.56 million in total withdrawals last week, including three sessions with more than $25 million in outflows each.

Monday’s smaller withdrawal represents an improvement from those individual sessions. However, comparing one trading day with an entire week does not establish how the current week will finish.

The latest data suggests less immediate pressure from redemptions, while leaving the direction of future flows uncertain. A return to sustained inflows would provide stronger evidence that demand through the fund is recovering.

Improving momentum meets overhead resistance

On the four-hour chart, ZEC remains below its 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages at approximately $1,377 and $1,384.

That cluster forms the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above both averages would improve the near-term structure and bring $1,422, the broken Sept. 18 low, into focus.

Beyond that level, the Sept. 23 high at $1,679 represents a more distant upside reference.

Momentum indicators offer some encouragement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has crossed above its signal line, with its histogram expanding into positive territory.

The Relative Strength Index is near 50, indicating broadly neutral momentum. The supplied analysis also identifies a bullish divergence, suggesting selling momentum may be weakening, though price confirmation remains necessary.

The rising 200-period EMA near $1,281 provides the immediate support reference beneath the current consolidation.

Holding that level would preserve the possibility that recent weakness is a correction within the broader recovery. A sustained break below it would weaken that interpretation and expose the next cited support near $1,050.

For now, Zcash remains between a rising support average and overhead resistance. Slower ETF withdrawals and improving momentum help the recovery case, but clearing $1,377–$1,384 would provide a more concrete bullish signal.

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