Monat: Oktober 2026

Key takeaways 

• XRP extended its corrections Thursday after three consecutive days of losses.
• CoinGlass showed negative funding rates for XRP, while its long-to-short ratios offered mixed signals.
• Reports of preparations for possible U.S. strikes against Iran introduced further uncertainty.

XRP remained under pressure Thursday as weaker derivatives signals and difficult macroeconomic conditions limited buying interest.

The asset extended its corrections following three consecutive losing sessions. XRP traded around $1.422, bringing its weekly decline to more than 6%.

Negative funding rates pointed to bearish pressure in perpetual futures, while elevated U.S. Treasury yields, dollar strength, and geopolitical concerns weighed on broader sentiment.

XRP derivatives show mixed positioning

CoinGlass’ XRP long-to-short ratio stood at 0.88 Thursday, indicating a slight tilt toward short positioning within the tracked dataset.

Funding rates were more consistently negative. After flipping below zero Wednesday, XRP’s rate stood at -0.0022% on Thursday.

Negative funding means shorts pay longs and can indicate stronger demand for bearish perpetual positions. However, neither funding rates nor positioning ratios guarantee the direction of the next price move.

The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized around 102.24 Thursday after reaching an intraday high of 102.53 Monday, its strongest level since early April 2025, according to the report.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.30% after touching approximately 5.35% Monday, described as a fresh two-decade high.

Higher yields increase the appeal of interest-bearing investments and can make conditions less supportive for speculative assets such as XRP and XLM.

Minutes from the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed unanimous support for raising the federal funds rate target range, according to the supplied account.

Most officials also expected another increase would likely be appropriate before year-end to address persistent inflation. That outlook reinforced the pressure from elevated yields and a firm dollar.

Iran strike reports add geopolitical uncertainty

The report also cited preparations for potential renewed U.S. military operations against Iran.

The Pentagon reportedly instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations while President Donald Trump considered the timing of possible strikes.

These reports describe potential action rather than confirming that an attack has occurred. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding an escalation could encourage defensive positioning, support demand for the dollar, and reduce appetite for cryptocurrencies.

XRP price outlook: $1.400 support faces a test

Despite its weekly decline, XRP remained above its key daily exponential moving averages.

The 50-day EMA near $1.400 provides immediate support, closely followed by the 200-day EMA at $1.389. Below that cluster, the 100-day EMA stands at $1.336.

Holding these levels would preserve part of XRP’s constructive technical structure. Momentum, however, remained weak: the RSI hovered near 45, while the MACD was below zero.

A sustained break beneath nearby moving-average support would bring $1.336 and horizontal support at $1.300 into focus. The report identifies $1.000 as a more distant downside reference.

On the upside, the analysis places notable resistance at $1.671. A sustained break above that barrier would bring $1.900 into view.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 during Wednesday’s Asian session.
• Rising oil prices added inflation concerns ahead of the FOMC minutes, keeping interest-rate expectations in focus.
• BTC’s immediate support lies around 80,000–82,000, while a sustained break above $87,000 could put $100,000 in focus.

Bitcoin weakened Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and assessed renewed inflation risks from rising oil prices.

Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 during Asian trading despite a return to inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. 

The moves highlight uncertainty over monetary policy. Although expectations for an October rate increase have eased, the analysis indicates that investors continue to anticipate a significant possibility of further tightening by December.

ETF inflows return, but Bitcoin struggles to advance

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $118.8 million in net inflows on October 6, following $89.8 million in outflows on October 5, according to Farside figures cited in the report.

The reversal offered a supportive demand signal, but it did not prevent Bitcoin from falling below $84,000 the following morning.

The uneven flows suggest that investment demand has yet to provide consistent backing for a sustained advance. Continued inflows would strengthen the recovery case, particularly if accompanied by firmer spot buying.

The FOMC minutes could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps. A stronger preference for additional rate increases could pressure both assets. Higher interest rates raise the appeal of interest-bearing investments and increase the opportunity cost of holding gold or Bitcoin.

A more patient policy tone could provide support, but rising energy prices complicate that outlook.

Oil advanced Wednesday as a storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico and attacks in the Middle East raised concerns about supply disruptions. If higher energy costs sustain inflation, expectations for further monetary tightening could strengthen.

Bitcoin price outlook: $80,000 support remains crucial

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows consolidation within an ascending broadening wedge, with immediate support around $80,000–$82,000.

Holding that zone would preserve the constructive near-term scenario outlined in the analysis. A sustained move above $87,000 could then put the $100,000 level in focus.

A break below $80,000 would weaken that setup and expose the 70,000–75,000 range. Further losses below $70,000 could bring support around $65,000 into view.

On the weekly chart, analysts identify a longer-term support zone between $50,000 and $60,000 and a potential cup formation within an ascending channel.

A future breakout above $100,000 could support an extension toward $150,000 under that bullish scenario. Those levels remain conditional technical projections rather than assured outcomes.

Bitcoin’s renewed ETF inflows provide encouragement, but stronger and more persistent demand would be needed to absorb selling and sustain a breakout.

The immediate technical focus remains on defending $80,000–$82,000 and overcoming $87,000 resistance. 

Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes and energy-driven inflation concerns could influence both Bitcoin and gold through changes in rate expectations.

Failure to hold Bitcoin’s nearby support would instead increase the risk of a deeper correction.

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Key takeaways

• CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio fell to 0.68, its lowest reading in more than a month.
• CryptoQuant data flagged overheated spot and futures conditions, with sell-side dominance among large futures orders.
• Immediate support lies at $0.088, followed by $0.086 and $0.085; reclaiming $0.093 would ease bearish pressure.

Dogecoin extended its losses Wednesday, trading near $0.090 as increasingly bearish derivatives positioning and fading technical momentum weighed on the meme coin.

DOGE has declined more than 5% so far this week. Although the price remains above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, its failure to recover the 200-day EMA leaves the near-term outlook vulnerable.

Market data and price prediction also point to a growing preference for short positions, while large futures orders show stronger selling activity.

Dogecoin long-to-short ratio drops to a monthly low

CoinGlass’ Dogecoin long-to-short ratio stood at 0.85 on Wednesday, its lowest level in more than a month.

A reading below one indicates that short positioning outweighs long positioning within the tracked dataset. The decline therefore suggests traders have become more bearish as DOGE’s weekly losses deepen.

However, the ratio measures positioning rather than guaranteeing the direction of the next price move. A crowded bearish trade can also become vulnerable to a reversal if buying demand returns.

For now, the reading reinforces the cautious tone surrounding Dogecoin.

CryptoQuant’s summary data identified overheating conditions across Dogecoin’s spot and futures markets.

The platform also highlighted large orders in the futures market, with sell-side activity dominating. Taken together, those signals suggest elevated trading activity is occurring alongside pressure from sellers.

Overheating alone does not establish that prices must decline. In this case, however, the sell-side imbalance and weaker long-to-short ratio support a bearish interpretation of the market snapshot.

DOGE struggles below its 200-Day moving average

Dogecoin remained below its 200-day EMA near $0.093, making that level an immediate obstacle to recovery.

The price continued to hold above the 50-day EMA at $0.088 and the 100-day EMA at $0.086. These levels indicate that some underlying support remains despite the recent pullback.

Momentum indicators were less supportive. The Relative Strength Index hovered near 48, slightly below its neutral midpoint of 50, while the MACD line was marginally negative.

Together, those readings suggest buyers have lost momentum without the market yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

Immediate support sits around $0.088, where the 50-day EMA aligns with a horizontal price level.

If that support fails, the next reference points are the 100-day EMA at $0.086 and the former trendline breakout area near $0.085. A daily close below this zone would weaken the technical structure and bring the deeper horizontal support at $0.070 into focus.

For a recovery, DOGE first needs to reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.093. A sustained move above it would ease immediate bearish pressure and shift attention toward resistance around $0.102.

Until then, Dogecoin faces a test of nearby support as bearish positioning and subdued momentum limit its recovery prospects.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin has dropped below $86,000 on Tuesday after gaining more than 12% across three consecutive positive weeks.
• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $90 million following last week’s massive inflow. 
• Resistance stands at $87,599 and near $90,000, while $85,000 remains immediate support.

Bitcoin consolidates after three weeks of gains

Bitcoin held below $86,000 on Tuesday, preserving a recovery of more than 12% since mid-September as ETF demand and shifting interest-rate expectations supported sentiment.

The cryptocurrency has recorded three consecutive weekly gains and is approaching resistance that could determine whether buyers extend the advance toward $90,000.

Its technical structure remains constructive across daily and weekly charts. However, some daily momentum readings have moderated, suggesting consolidation near recent highs rather than an uninterrupted climb.

Holding the nearby $85,000 support level would help preserve that bullish structure. A break below it would increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.

The result marked a third consecutive positive week, showing that demand through these products continued alongside bitcoin’s price recovery.

However, the week began negatively, with the funds recording an outflow of $90 million on Monday. 

Repeated inflows provide a supportive backdrop, although they do not guarantee further gains. Their significance will depend on whether buying persists and how it compares with selling elsewhere in the market.

An acceleration in inflows would strengthen the demand picture as bitcoin approaches overhead resistance. Conversely, weaker flows could leave the recovery more dependent on other buyers.

For now, ETF activity remains one of the factors supporting the recent advance.

Weak payrolls reduce October hike expectations

Investors also scaled back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase after Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report.

September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, falling short of the expected 90,000 increase. August’s gain was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000.

Following the report, CME FedWatch placed the probability of an October rate hike at 18.3% on Monday, down from approximately 70% the previous week.

Reduced expectations for tightening can support risk assets by easing concerns about more restrictive financial conditions.

However, lower hike odds are not a promise of easier policy. They reflect market pricing that can change as additional economic data becomes available.

Bitcoin technical forecast: Weekly resistance stands between BTC and $90,000

On the weekly chart, bitcoin faces initial resistance at $87,599, the 50% retracement between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199.

A successful close above that level would bring the 100-week simple moving average at approximately $89,832 into focus, followed by the psychological $90,000 threshold.

Weekly momentum supports the recovery. The Relative Strength Index is around 62 and rising, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows expanding positive histogram bars.

If resistance holds and a broader correction develops, the cited downside references include the $78,490 Fibonacci level and the 50-day SMA near $77,201.

The daily chart shows bitcoin above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias.

The daily RSI stands near 67, indicating strong momentum just below conventional overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has eased toward zero, suggesting upward pressure is slowing.

Immediate support lies at $85,000. A daily close below that floor would weaken the consolidation structure and expose the 50-day EMA near $79,189.

Further below, the 100-day EMA at $75,367 and the 200-day EMA near $74,994 form a deeper support area. More distant horizontal levels sit at $66,500 and $62,300.

Bitcoin’s recovery remains intact, but clearing $87,599 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers can carry the move toward $90,000.

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