Bitcoin holds above $70K support as geopolitical tensions weigh on market sentiment

Key takeaways

  • BTC is down 1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $71,000.
  • The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the inflation fears continue to weigh on market sentiments. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the week on shaky ground, hovering near the critical $70,700 support level on Monday. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to a broader correction. 

Geopolitical tensions dent risk appetite

The primary catalyst behind the poor performance is the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran. 

Efforts to reach a resolution between the United States and Iran ended without progress, following talks in Pakistan that failed to produce a ceasefire agreement. US Vice President JD Vance described the proposal as a final offer, which Iran rejected, with state media citing excessive demands.

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump announced plans for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to disrupt a fragile ceasefire. At the same time, ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon has heightened fears of a wider regional escalation.

Macroeconomic pressures are also limiting Bitcoin’s upside. Fresh data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation accelerating sharply, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.9% in March—its fastest monthly increase in four years. On an annual basis, inflation climbed to 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February.

The data has prompted investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reinforcing a more hawkish outlook. 

Despite the current market conditions, institutional demand provided a degree of support last week. Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $786.31 million, building on modest gains from the prior week. 

If the institutional inflow increases, it could help stabilize prices and potentially drive a rebound in the near term.

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC approaches a crucial support level

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin is approaching a crucial support level. 

Bitcoin recently found support near its 200-week exponential moving average around $68,100 and posted a modest weekly gain. As of Monday, BTC is trading just above $70,700.

If bullish momentum builds, Bitcoin could target a move toward $74,500, which marks its 2025 yearly low. Indicators suggest early signs of stabilization, with the Relative Strength Index trending upward and the MACD signaling a bullish crossover on the weekly chart.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

However, Bitcoin continues to face resistance from key moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day levels.

If the daily candle closes above the 50-day EMA near $70,700, it could open the path toward $72,500 and beyond. 

On the downside, failure to hold this level could see BTC slide toward the $65,800 support zone.

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Dogecoin price analysis: profit-taking stalls rally attempts as breakout setup forms

  • Dogecoin (DOGE) stalls near $0.095 as profit-taking caps upside.
  • DOGE price is currently compressing between the $0.089 and $0.095 range.
  • A breakout is likely as volatility builds ahead of April 20.

The price action around Dogecoin continues to sit in a tight and indecisive range, with recent trading showing very little directional strength.

At the time of writing, DOGE was trading around $0.092, moving inside a narrow 24-hour band between $0.091 and $0.0947.

Each attempt to push higher has been met with immediate resistance at $0.0947, while pullbacks continue to find support around $0.091, creating a balanced but fragile structure, where price remains stable on the surface but increasingly tense underneath.

Profit-taking pressure keeps bulls in check

A key factor limiting DOGE’s upside momentum is consistent profit-taking near local highs.

Over the past trading sessions, price has repeatedly failed to hold above $0.094–$0.095, with every move into this zone triggering selling and pushing price back toward the mid-range near $0.092.

This behaviour is reinforced by the broader weekly structure.

Despite minor gains of around 1% over the past 7 days, DOGE remains largely unchanged across longer timeframes, with only +0.8% over 30 days.

This lack of trend continuation suggests that buyers are not committing beyond short-term trades.

On top of that, derivatives positioning has added scepticism to the upside.

The presence of notable short positions in the market shows that some traders are actively betting against sustained rallies.

This does not guarantee downside movement, but it does explain why upward pushes struggle to build momentum.

Compression builds as technical structure tightens

From a technical perspective, DOGE is clearly in a compression phase.

The 24-hour range of roughly $0.091 to $0.0947, combined with a 7-day range of just over $0.089 to $0.095, highlights how tightly the price is coiling.

This structure aligns with a descending triangle pattern, where lower highs continue to form while support remains anchored near the $0.089–$0.090 zone.

Dogecoin price chart

At the same time, price is also trading inside a broader Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart, which typically signals indecision and equilibrium rather than a trending market.

These overlapping structures matter because they all point to the same conclusion: volatility is being compressed.

When multiple technical signals converge like this, the market often prepares for a sharp expansion move.

However, direction remains undefined until either support or resistance breaks convincingly.

Liquidity positioning and the “Doge Day” factor

Beyond chart structure, short-term market dynamics are also shaping sentiment.

Robinhood transferred 327 million DOGE (valued at about $30 million) from cold storage to hot wallets on April 9.

While this is not direct buying pressure, it is widely interpreted as preparation for increased trading activity.

This timing is notable as it coincides with growing attention toward the upcoming “Doge Day” period around April 20.

Historically, these events tend to increase retail participation and short-term volatility, even if they do not always produce sustained trends.

At the same time, broader crypto conditions have provided only mild support.

Bitcoin’s modest gains have helped stabilise sentiment across the market, but DOGE has not shown strong independent momentum. Instead, it continues to trade within its own compressed structure.

Key Dogecoin price levels that will define the next move

For now, DOGE remains in a consolidation phase where patience matters more than prediction.

Once price finally breaks out of the current range, the move is likely to be fast, sharp, and decisive, simply because the market has already spent days building pressure without releasing it.

As the market awaits the next move, the most important DOGE price level for traders remains the $0.09 psychological support zone.

Dogecoin price has held above this level consistently, and any sustained breakdown below $0.089 would mark a clear shift in structure.

Below that, the next area of interest sits near $0.088, where previous accumulation has occurred.

On the upside, resistance remains firmly in place between $0.094 and $0.095.

A daily close above $0.095 would be an important technical signal, suggesting that buyers are finally absorbing overhead supply.

If that happens, the next potential target would be the $0.104 region, which marks a previous local high.

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Avalanche price outlook as AVAX spot ETFs extend zero net inflows streak

  • Avalanche spot ETFs have extended their zero net inflows streak to 16 days.
  • The AVAX token has traded lower amid the laggard ETF market.
  • If bulls flip the picture, AVAX could target $16 and then $20 in the next leg up.

Avalanche (AVAX) price faces downward pressure near $9.00 as its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mark yet another milestone in investor apathy.

Despite gains of nearly 4% this past week, zero net inflows persist and could accelerate amid a sluggish altcoin market.

Avalanche spot ETFs’ “bad” net inflows streak

While spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown intermittent days of net inflows and outflows over the past month, the two spot AVAX ETFs have established a long streak of no net inflows.

SoSoValue data indicates that VanEck’s VAVX and Grayscale’s GAVA have recorded zero net inflows for sixteen consecutive trading days, a streak that began on March 18, 2026.

This drought follows a brief surge on March 17, when the funds attracted $246,000 in combined net inflows, building on $532,000 that flowed in earlier that week.

Since then, however, capital has stalled completely, mirroring broader altcoin fatigue in a Bitcoin-dominated market.

As of April 10, 2026, cumulative net inflows for the ETFs total $9.76 million, with daily trading volume remaining anemic at $251,800.

The funds collectively manage $17.14 million in assets under management (AUM), representing just 0.43% of AVAX’s circulating market cap.

This limited exposure highlights the challenges in drawing institutional interest to Avalanche’s ecosystem, despite its strengths in high-throughput blockchain scaling and subnet technology.

Avalanche price outlook

Market observers link the inflows freeze to macroeconomic caution and geopolitical tensions dampening risk appetite.

ETF analysts note that without fresh capital, these products struggle to provide the liquidity boost seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum counterparts, potentially prolonging AVAX’s price consolidation.

AVAX has failed to hit sustained upside momentum since the token tested resistance near $35 in September 2025.

The subsequent plunge below the critical $10 psychological level has left bulls on the defensive, as sellers dominate amid fading on-chain activity and reduced DeFi TVL on Avalanche’s network.

Currently, AVAX trades around the $9.00 support zone, where the Supertrend indicator gives bears the advantage.

However, a fragile uptick over the past week offers slim hope for upward momentum or stabilization as bulls eye $10.00.

Avalanche Price Chart
Avalanche price chart by TradingView

Technical indicators signal this possibility, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above 50 on the daily chart.

Analysts have also pointed to the resilience of the broader crypto market as one likely to support a clean break above $10.20.

If bulls invalidate the downtrend, the immediate target will be the $12-$16 region. Highs of $20 could attract bullish traders.

However, failure to hold $9.00 risks acceleration toward $8.50, opening the door to a retest of the year-to-date lows of $7.53 reached on February 6.

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Japan approves bill to classify crypto as financial assets

  • Cryptocurrencies now fall under Japan’s securities-style financial laws.
  • Insider trading rules and stricter disclosures will apply.
  • Lower taxes may boost investor and institutional participation.

Japan has taken a major step in reshaping how it treats cryptocurrencies.

A new bill approved by the government moves cryptocurrencies into the category of financial assets, placing them closer to traditional investment products such as stocks and bonds.

Following the approval, Japan now no longer views crypto just as a payment tool, but as part of its wider financial system.

This change is expected to have a wide impact on exchanges, investors, and crypto companies operating in Japan.

A shift from payment tools to financial instruments

For years, cryptocurrencies in Japan were mainly treated as a means of payment under a lighter regulatory framework. That approach is now being replaced with a more structured system based on financial market rules.

Under the new bill, cryptocurrencies will fall under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

This is the same legal framework used to regulate traditional securities. In simple terms, crypto is being pulled into the same category as regulated financial products like equities.

This change is not just about classification. It also changes how the market is expected to behave.

Cryptocurrency exchange platforms and issuers will now be required to follow stricter rules around transparency, reporting, and operational conduct.

The aim is to make the crypto market function with the same level of structure and accountability seen in conventional financial markets.

Stronger investor protection and market discipline

One of the most important parts of the new framework is the introduction of stricter rules around market fairness.

The bill introduces restrictions similar to those seen in stock markets, including clear prohibitions on insider trading in crypto markets.

This means individuals with access to non-public information about tokens or projects will not be allowed to use that information for trading advantage, which will greatly reduce manipulation and unfair practices in the sector.

In addition, crypto companies and exchanges will face tougher disclosure requirements. They are expected to provide regular and detailed information about their operations and token-related activities.

This is designed to give investors a clearer picture of what they are dealing with before making financial decisions.

Penalties are also being strengthened.

Operating without proper registration or violating market rules can now lead to heavier fines and stricter legal consequences, including prison sentences in serious cases.

The intention is to discourage bad actors and improve overall trust in the system.

These changes reflect a broader effort to build a safer trading environment as Japan tries to reduce risk in a market that has often been criticised for volatility and lack of transparency.

Cryptocurrency tax changes

Alongside regulatory reform, there is also discussion around tax adjustments that could make crypto investment more attractive.

One of the key expected changes is a shift toward a flat capital gains tax rate of around 20%.

This would bring crypto taxation closer to the system used for traditional investments and significantly lower the burden compared to previous progressive rates.

A simpler and more predictable tax structure could encourage more individual and institutional participation in the market. It also removes one of the long-standing barriers for investors who were hesitant due to complex tax obligations.

At the same time, the new legal framework opens the door for greater institutional involvement.

With crypto now treated as a financial asset, banks, asset managers, and investment firms may find it easier to enter the market.

This could eventually lead to the development of regulated crypto investment products, including exchange-traded funds.

The broader shift in Japan’s financial strategy

Japan’s decision is part of a larger effort to modernise its financial system.

By aligning crypto with traditional financial instruments, the country is building a framework that supports both innovation and regulation at the same time.

This move also positions Japan as one of the more structured crypto markets globally.

While some regions continue to debate how to regulate digital assets, Japan is moving ahead with a clear legal classification and enforcement structure.

The long-term goal appears to be creating a stable environment where digital assets can grow under established financial rules.

If successful, this approach could attract more global capital and strengthen Japan’s position in the evolving digital economy.

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Toncoin jumps near $1.30 as whale buying fuels breakout hopes

  • Toncoin whales have accumulated over 189,700 TON in three months.
  • Heavy accumulation comes as TON activates the Catchain 2.0 upgrade.
  • ​TON price rose to intraday highs of $1.32, could eye $1.89-$2.40 next.

Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency token of the Telegram-supported TON Blockchain, is trading higher on the day amid signs of renewed investor interest.

On Friday, the Toncoin price hovered at $1.30 as large holders, or “whales,” scooped up more tokens. The accumulation comes amid a tentative broader market recovery.

​Toncoin price tests $1.30 zone amid whale accumulation

Toncoin’s price has climbed 4% in the past 24 hours, hovering near the critical $1.30 resistance zone.

The token reached an intraday high of $1.32 during the Asian trading session.

Buyers helped push trading volume up, with the metric spiking 104% as of writing to $160 million, marking a 45% increase from the previous day’s average.

This uptick arrives as Bitcoin holds above $71,000 amid bets on a new leg to $80,000.

Notably, TON’s momentum aligns with this backdrop, particularly as the network’s 100 largest whale addresses have collectively scooped up an additional 189,730 $TON over the past three months.

This accumulation persists despite broader market headwinds.

Analysts at Santiment highlighted what’s likely bullish in a post:

“Even with the #29-ranked coin in crypto losing two-thirds of its market cap since its local top in early August 2025, this heavy accumulation is a promising sign that a relief rally may come quickly once crypto markets finally turn the page from this bear cycle.”

Whale activity often points to fresh confidence in a project, and the aggressive buying shows interest in Toncoin’s underlying ecosystem.

The token is tied to the Telegram-integrated TON blockchain, which continues to expand through decentralized applications and mini-apps.

TON price is looking to bounce higher as the community cheers the Catchain, an upgrade designed to boost network throughput and block processing capacity.

In a post on X, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov commented on how bullish this upgrade is for Toncoin, noting that it marks the first step in a 7-stage Make TON Great Again (MTONGA) vision.

What’s next for Toncoin price?

Such large-scale buying often precedes price reversals, as these investors position for potential rebounds.

Toncoin’s technical picture indicates that the price remains entrenched in a downtrend that began in June 2025, when it peaked above $8.20.

Persistent selling has resulted in a 84% decline in its value.

Toncoin Price Chart
Toncoin price chart by TradingView

Bulls are not out of the woods yet, but a decisive break above $1.35 could ignite fresh upside momentum.

In this case, a potential target in a fresh rally would be the next resistance cluster around $1.89-$2.00. Significant supply pressure could follow at $2.40, an area of prior profit-taking deals.

Conversely, if sellers regain control, primary support levels beckon at $1.15.

A drop below $1.00 could accelerate selling toward $0.85, the multi-month low.

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