Kategorie: Crypto Markets

• Senate Democrats, led by Sen. Gallego, signaled opposition to advancing the current stablecoin (GENIUS Act) bill.
• Concerns stem from President Trump’s increasing personal financial ties to crypto ventures (memecoin, family-linked stablecoin).
• The legislative stall threatens not only the stablecoin bill but also progress on broader crypto market structure rules.

The path forward for landmark stablecoin legislation in the US Senate has hit a significant snag, as key Democratic lawmakers express reservations linked directly to President Donald Trump’s growing personal and financial connections within the cryptocurrency industry.

What was recently seen as a bipartisan effort now faces political headwinds, potentially delaying not only stablecoin rules but also broader market structure legislation for the digital asset sector.

Over the weekend, a group of nine Senate Democrats, led by Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, signaled they would oppose advancing the current version of the main stablecoin bill, known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins of 2025 (GENIUS Act).

Their unified stance raises immediate procedural hurdles, as Senate rules typically require 60 votes to overcome filibusters and move legislation forward. Gallego, notably elected with substantial backing ($10 million) from the crypto-focused super PAC Fairshake, now leads the charge expressing concerns.

While the senators’ public statement cited the need for stronger provisions on critical issues like anti-money laundering, national security, and consumer protection, sources suggest deeper concerns related to President Trump’s potential personal financial gains from the crypto space are driving the hesitation.

In a report, CoinDesk confirmed that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had privately urged Democrats to withhold support during a caucus meeting last week, predating Gallego’s public announcement. Axios first reported this internal division.

Trump’s crypto ventures raise red flags

Two recent developments appear to have particularly crystallized Democratic concerns. First, President Trump announced plans for a dinner exclusively for top holders of his own branded memecoin.

Second, Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX announced its intention to utilize USD1 – a stablecoin associated with World Liberty Financial, a firm backed by the Trump family – for a significant investment into the cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

As USA Today noted, these ventures suggest Trump could personally profit to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars from activities potentially legitimized or facilitated by the proposed legislation.

President Trump, during a weekend interview on Meet the Press, denied seeking personal profit from his crypto initiatives.

“I’m not profiting from anything,” he asserted. “All I’m doing is, I started this long before the election. I want crypto. I think crypto’s important because if we don’t do it, China’s going to… But I want crypto because a lot of people, you know millions of people want it.”

Legislative momentum hits a wall

This emerging conflict threatens to derail the momentum not only for the stablecoin bill but also for much-anticipated market structure legislation.

Industry stakeholders have long sought clarity on how the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should oversee the broader digital asset market.

One individual working closely with lawmakers told CoinDesk that while the stablecoin bill might eventually pass, the current delay could jeopardize its progress, which in turn would almost certainly stall any movement on the more comprehensive market structure bill.

Concerns about the potential duration of this legislative slowdown and what concessions might be needed to appease Democrats are growing.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, a leading Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee and a prominent crypto skeptic, was unequivocal. Referring to the MGX deal involving the Trump family-linked stablecoin (publicly shared by Eric Trump), she posted on Bluesky that the Senate should reject any bill that would “facilitate this kind of corruption.”

Warren, along with Senator Jeffrey Merkley, subsequently sent a letter Monday urging the U.S. Office of Government Ethics to investigate the MGX transaction.

The resistance isn’t confined to the Senate. Representative Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, informed the committee’s chair on Monday that she would block efforts to hold a joint hearing with the House Agriculture Committee aimed at addressing market structure legislation.

Politics vs. policy: industry urges action

Financial policy analyst Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen characterized much of the current impasse as “politics.”

In a note to clients, he observed that Trump’s personal stake makes it politically difficult for Democrats to support legislation regulating his family’s interests.

Despite this, Seiberg predicts the stablecoin bill will likely still pass the Senate eventually, albeit perhaps not this week, given the crypto industry’s significant lobbying power and resources.

“It is hard for us to see why the Democrats would take on that fight when they can leverage significant concessions from the GOP on the stablecoin bill,” he reasoned.

The crypto industry itself appears alarmed by the sudden halt in momentum.

A joint statement released Monday by leaders of the Blockchain Association, the Crypto Council for Innovation, and the Digital Chamber urged Senators to proceed with debate on the GENIUS Act, arguing a clear regulatory framework is vital for stablecoin adoption and maintaining “dollar dominance in the digital economy.”

The National Venture Capital Association echoed this call, emphasizing the need for clear rules to foster innovation and support US leadership in financial technology.

While the senators withholding support stated they “recognize that the absence of regulation leaves consumers unprotected,” their current stance, driven by concerns over presidential conflicts of interest, has undeniably pumped the brakes on crypto legislation in Washington.

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US President Donald Trump is leaning into the cryptocurrency world this month with two high-profile dinners targeting both wealthy political donors and holders of the meme coin bearing his name — the $TRUMP token.

Together, these crypto-focused events could generate millions in support and further entrench Trump’s growing ties to the digital asset community.

The first event, scheduled for May 6, is a lavish $1.5 million-per-plate fundraiser, placing it among the most expensive dinners in American presidential history.

The event is hosted by MAGA Inc. and includes special guest David Sacks, a prominent venture capitalist and a vocal advocate for reshaping crypto and AI regulations in the US.

Later in the month, on May 22, Trump will host a second dinner at his private club, Trump National in the Washington, D.C. area.

Uniquely, this one isn’t funded by cash but by crypto.

Access to the gala is being determined through a blockchain-based leaderboard contest, run by the creators of the $TRUMP meme coin.

Entry is granted to the top 220 token holders by May 12, with the top 25 getting VIP access and a private reception, along with a black-tie-optional “WIP White House Tour.”

This gamified campaign tactic has driven significant attention and value to the $TRUMP token.

Since the announcement of the gala dinner, the token surged over 50%, lifting the on-paper value of wallets held by early backers and project insiders.

However, the setup has sparked controversy.

Watchdog group Accountable slammed the contest as “the most nakedly corrupt self-enrichment scheme in US presidential history,” citing concerns over how it potentially enables wealthy, and possibly foreign, individuals to buy influence through crypto holdings.

Adding to the criticism, the contest’s fine print includes a disclaimer that Trump’s attendance is not guaranteed, and that in the event of cancellation, winners will receive a Trump-themed NFT instead.

According to on-chain analytics firm Chainalysis, trading activity in the $TRUMP token has generated over $324 million in transaction fees since its January launch — funds largely routed to wallets controlled by the token’s creators and, reportedly, Trump-affiliated entities.

The project’s website claims that about 80% of the token’s supply is held by the Trump Organization and associated wallets.

To ease public scrutiny, the coin’s insiders have agreed not to sell their holdings for at least another 90 days, according to disclosures on the project site.

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• Q1 2025 audit shows excess reserves down to $5.6 billion from $7 billion.
• Tether’s reserves are managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, raising scrutiny over potential conflicts.
• Competitor World Liberty Financial, backed by the Trump family, also plans to launch a stablecoin.

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer by market capitalisation, is preparing to launch a US-based stablecoin by the end of 2025 or early 2026.

The move marks a shift in the company’s strategy as it aims to align itself more closely with American regulatory frameworks.

While its international USDT token is already dominant in global crypto trading, the proposed dollar-pegged stablecoin will be designed to comply with domestic regulations in the United States.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino revealed the development during an interview at the Token2049 conference in Dubai.

He confirmed the company was awaiting the outcome of pending US legislation before finalising a launch timeline.

The push coincides with Tether’s broader attempt to reposition itself in the US as a compliant and cooperative player, following past controversies over its reserve disclosures and regulatory fines.

Lobbying efforts intensify in Washington

Tether’s domestic pivot comes as Ardoino increases his presence in Washington, DC.

His recent efforts include private meetings with lawmakers and a Capitol Hill lunch with Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, according to reports.

The company is now actively lobbying in support of proposed legislation like the GOP-backed GENIUS Act, which includes provisions that could benefit foreign issuers such as Tether if they agree to cooperate with US law enforcement.

Ardoino has also underscored Tether’s relationship with US agencies, stating that no other financial entity, traditional or crypto, matches its collaboration level with law enforcement.

While the company was once criticised for allegedly enabling criminal transactions, its new strategy focuses on transparency and legal compliance as a means of gaining regulatory approval.

Tether’s headquarters remain in El Salvador, but the company’s efforts to develop a domestically compliant stablecoin reflect its evolving approach to regulatory alignment.

It is positioning the new token as separate from its global USDT product, tailored to meet specific legal and financial rules within the US.

Cantor Fitzgerald link draws scrutiny

As part of its reserve management strategy, Tether holds billions in US Treasuries managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, a major Wall Street firm.

The firm’s Q1 2025 attestation report confirmed holdings of nearly $120 billion in Treasuries, though its excess reserves declined to $5.6 billion from over $7 billion in December 2024.

The Cantor connection has attracted attention due to the firm being led by the sons of US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Ardoino addressed concerns around conflicts of interest, stating that proper “walls” are in place and that he does not communicate directly with the secretary.

He also emphasised Tether’s healthy capital position, noting $7 billion in excess equity and suggesting that traditional institutions should emulate its model.

In 2021, Tether paid $18.5 million to settle charges by the New York attorney general over misrepresentations about its reserves.

Since then, it has begun publishing routine attestation reports.

Ardoino insisted the company is now better capitalised than many traditional financial firms and prepared to withstand significant market shocks.

Domestic stablecoin market heats up

Tether’s expansion into the US stablecoin market comes amid increased political attention.

The Trump-backed World Liberty Financial recently announced plans to launch its dollar-backed token, adding to the competition for regulatory legitimacy and market share.

While stablecoins remain a hot topic in Washington, the GENIUS Act and other proposals could set the stage for clearer compliance pathways for issuers.

Tether’s ability to influence policy could prove crucial as it seeks to enter a space where scrutiny is likely to intensify in the run-up to the 2026 elections.

Tether’s move to issue a domestically regulated stablecoin is not only a technical milestone but also a political statement.

As regulatory conversations gain momentum in Washington, its future may depend less on market dominance and more on legal alignment with US financial policy.

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• NAV benchmarks for BTC and ETH ETFs underpin the forecast.
• SEC’s final deadline for XRP ETF approval is 12 October.
• Polymarket data shows a 79% chance of approval by year-end.

Anticipation over an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) is building in the crypto sector as analysts weigh up potential inflows, market impacts, and regulatory dynamics.

While rumours and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, data-driven forecasts from key institutions now offer a clearer picture.

Standard Chartered Bank projects that a US-listed XRP spot ETF could attract between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion in inflows within its first year, based on net asset value benchmarks seen in existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

This projection, while optimistic, comes with caution from others in the market.

Standard Chartered bases its projection on ETF benchmarks

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said NAV-to-market-cap ratios from already approved US spot ETFs were used to model potential XRP ETF inflows.

Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs currently show NAVs of around 6% and 3% of their respective market caps.

Applying these ratios to XRP’s market capitalisation results in a $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion range.

Kendrick highlighted data from Bitwise ETPs in Europe, where XRP, Solana, and Litecoin trade alongside BTC and ETH.

He noted that altcoins account for a greater share of ETP NAV relative to their market caps, although this may reflect the lower number of products available for altcoins compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

XRP price forecast revised amid ETF optimism

Based on anticipated ETF inflows, Standard Chartered forecasts a significant XRP price increase.

The bank expects XRP to rise to $5.50 by the end of 2025 and reach $8.00 by 2026.

The target for 2029 is set at $12.25.

This forecast assumes XRP ETF approval and a general continuation of growth in digital asset investment vehicles.

For comparison, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2 2025, $200,000 by the end of the year, and $500,000 by 2028.

XRP is expected to keep pace, albeit with lower overall adoption and inflation differences.

XRP’s current inflation rate stands at 6%, compared to Bitcoin’s 0.8%.

Bitfinex analysts issue cautious counterpoint

Despite bullish projections, not all market observers are convinced that XRP ETFs would generate the same excitement as Bitcoin products.

Analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex argue that investor interest may be spread thin across a growing list of altcoin ETFs.

As such, XRP might not see inflows comparable to Bitcoin, even if approved.

Their caution reflects broader concerns about ETF market saturation and regulatory clarity.

While Bitcoin enjoys legal clarity as a commodity, XRP has faced classification issues and legal disputes that may influence investor confidence.

Timeline for XRP ETF approval remains uncertain

Several financial firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have filed for XRP ETFs with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitwise’s application was officially acknowledged on 18 February, setting a maximum deadline of 240 days, or 12 October, for a final decision.

This mirrors the timeline applied to Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in 2024.

However, other altcoin ETF applications such as those for Solana and Litecoin could impact when an XRP decision is made.

According to Kendrick, Litecoin may be prioritised given its similarity to Bitcoin and its historical treatment as a commodity.

Polymarket data shows that as of now, the probability of XRP ETF approval by 31 July is 39%, rising to 79% by the end of the year.

Analysts including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggest Litecoin could be the first among altcoins to secure approval, followed by HBAR and eventually XRP and Solana, which face unresolved security classification challenges.

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