Kategorie: Crypto Markets

• About 14% of wallets showed behaviour consistent with coordinated wash trading.
• Artificial trading peaked at 60% in December 2023 and dropped to 5% by May.
• ICE plans to invest up to $2 billion as Polymarket prepares for a regulated US return.

A new study by Columbia University researchers has found that nearly a quarter of all trading on Polymarket, one of the world’s leading decentralised prediction platforms, has been artificially inflated by wash trading over the past three years.

Using blockchain analytics, the researchers traced millions of transactions on the Polygon network and found widespread patterns of self-dealing that misrepresented market depth and liquidity.

The findings challenge the perceived transparency of blockchain-based prediction markets and raise deeper questions about how decentralised finance can preserve integrity while operating without traditional oversight mechanisms.

Algorithmic analysis exposes trading manipulation

The research team analysed millions of wallet transactions recorded on the Polygon blockchain, where all Polymarket activity is publicly verifiable.

By designing algorithms to detect repetitive and circular trading patterns, they identified that 14% of the platform’s 1.26 million wallets exhibited behaviour consistent with wash trading.

These accounts repeatedly transacted with each other but rarely interacted with the wider market, indicating self-dealing activity rather than genuine speculation.

According to the study, wash trading accounted for an average of 25% of total Polymarket transactions since 2021.

The frequency of this artificial activity fluctuated over time, peaking at 60% in December 2023 before declining to around 5% in May, only to climb again to roughly 20% by October.

The findings illustrate how easily decentralised markets can be manipulated when transaction costs are negligible and identities pseudonymous.

The authors, including Columbia Business School professors Yash Kanoria and Hongyao Ma, economist Rajiv Sethi of Barnard College, and doctoral student Allen Sirolly, emphasised that their estimates are not definitive.

However, the data suggests a consistent pattern that raises questions about how on-chain markets represent real sentiment and liquidity.

Token speculation may have fuelled artificial activity

While the study did not allege direct involvement by Polymarket itself, it identified structural features that make wash trading possible.

The exchange charges no transaction fees, supports self-custodied crypto wallets, and enables stablecoin settlements, allowing traders to operate multiple pseudonymous accounts without meaningful cost.

The researchers also linked several spikes in artificial volume to rumours of a potential Polymarket token launch.

In decentralised finance, such speculation can drive traders to inflate their activity in hopes of qualifying for “airdrop” rewards when a new token is released.

In early October, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan posted on social media hinting at a possible token, coinciding with one of the sharp rises in wash trading.

Sirolly noted that authentic trading volumes tended to surge around real-world developments like election polls or sports results, whereas wash trading peaks aligned more closely with token-related rumours.

This suggests that some users were trading not for market insight but for eligibility in prospective reward distributions.

Regulatory context and industry competition

Polymarket, founded in 2020, has become one of the most active blockchain-based prediction platforms, allowing users to bet on political, financial, and cultural outcomes.

Its closest competitor, Kalshi Inc., operates under US regulation but does not run on a blockchain, limiting external scrutiny of its data.

The report’s timing is significant. In 2022, Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating an unregistered exchange and subsequently barred US users.

Despite regulatory pressure, Polymarket remains attractive to institutional investors.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc., owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently signalled plans to invest up to $2 billion in the company, underscoring the mainstream financial world’s growing interest in blockchain prediction markets.

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• ETF would hold DOGE directly, with Coinbase and BNY Mellon as custodians.
• REX-Osprey DOGE ETF launched in September 2025, setting a precedent.
• Analysts see a 90% chance of multiple Dogecoin ETFs trading by year-end.

Bitwise has taken a procedural leap that could see its spot Dogecoin ETF go live by late November, signalling a turning point for both regulatory practice and the mainstream acceptance of meme coins.

The asset manager updated its S-1 registration under Section 8(a) of the Securities Act, removing a delaying amendment that kept the fund from automatically becoming effective.

This change started a 20-day countdown, meaning the fund could launch unless the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intervenes.

If unchallenged, the ETF could start trading around 26 November, marking a new milestone in digital-asset regulation.

Filing move reflects growing confidence in SEC approach

The update, noted on 7 November by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, allows Bitwise to “let the clock run.”

Under Section 8(a), an ETF filing automatically takes effect after 20 days unless the SEC acts to stop or delay it.

This strategy is not common but fully permitted under US securities law.

It indicates that Bitwise is confident the SEC will not act against the fund in time, especially given the agency’s recent approval of several single-asset crypto products.

The regulatory shift suggests that the SEC is becoming more open to digital-asset exposure through tightly monitored instruments such as ETFs.

Inside Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF structure

The proposed product will hold Dogecoin directly, storing tokens with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, while BNY Mellon will manage its cash reserves.

It is designed to track the CF Dogecoin-Dollar Settlement Price, offering investors direct exposure to the token’s spot performance.

Although Bitwise has not yet disclosed the ticker symbol or management fee, the ETF is expected to list on NYSE Arca.

Its design mirrors that of earlier single-asset crypto ETFs, which blend traditional finance infrastructure with digital-asset markets to provide institutional-grade access to cryptocurrencies.

Dogecoin ETFs move from novelty to serious investment class

Dogecoin, initially launched in 2013 as a light-hearted experiment, has transformed into an investable asset within regulated markets.

The REX-Osprey DOGE ETF, which launched in September 2025, was the first to bring the token into mainstream financial products.

Bitwise’s latest filing follows a broader wave of interest among asset managers.

Several issuers have recently updated or resubmitted their applications, often cutting fees to gain an early competitive edge.

Bloomberg analysts estimate a more than 90 percent chance that multiple Dogecoin ETFs could be trading by the end of the year, supported by the SEC’s gradual acceptance of crypto-based exchange-traded products.

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• Dogecoin price currently hovers near $0.15 support amid rising liquidation pressure.
• Analysts predict a rebound, targeting up to $0.48 by early next year.
• Technicals remain weak, but oversold signals hint at a possible recovery.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is at the centre of market attention as the broader crypto sector struggles to stabilise.

The popular meme coin has extended its recent losses, but some analysts believe a major rebound could be in the making.

Despite the current downturn, optimism is quietly building that the Dogecoin price could soon “burst” upward if key technical levels hold.

Market pressure builds as DOGE tests key support

The Dogecoin price has dropped 5.3% in the past 24 hours, deepening its 12.9% weekly decline.

Currently at around $0.1586, DOGE is trading dangerously close to its crucial $0.15 support zone.

The market’s overall risk-off sentiment, coupled with thin liquidity, has intensified selling pressure.

According to CoinGlass data, more than $3.94 million in long positions were liquidated on November 6, compared with just $961,000 in short positions — a rare 12,129% imbalance that sparked panic selling and accelerated DOGE’s decline.

The fallout from these liquidations has been amplified by the token’s low turnover ratio of just 7.5%.

Futures open interest has also fallen 6.8% over the past week, showing waning speculative confidence.

Traders should closely watch the funding rates, which have slipped to -0.002%, for signs of an easing bearish leverage.

Technicals hint at weakness, but setup remains intact

Technical indicators continue to paint a cautious picture.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32.23, placing DOGE near oversold territory but offering no definitive reversal signal.

The MACD and momentum indicators also remain in negative territory, confirming that short-term sentiment is weak.

Dogecoin is still trading below all key moving averages, including its 10-day EMA at $0.176 and 200-day SMA at $0.216, reinforcing the bearish outlook in the near term.

Even so, oversold conditions could create the foundation for a rebound.

DOGE has repeatedly found strong support around the $0.15–$0.165 range, which now represents a make-or-break level.

On the other hand, a decisive daily close above $0.1684 would be the first technical sign that downward momentum is fading.

Analysts see potential for a bullish breakout

Despite the current gloom, several well-known analysts have voiced a more optimistic outlook.

Crypto analyst Butterfly believes the Dogecoin price could soon “burst” upward from its current range.

In an X post, Butterfly noted that DOGE is hovering near the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle on the three-day chart, a zone that has historically acted as a launchpad for rallies.

#DOGE is facing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle on the 3D chart👀

This zone remains a strong floor for price action — bullish pressure is mounting fast👨‍💻

Stay alert because $DOGE could totally BURST from here🚀 pic.twitter.com/DRREgBWv45

— Butterfly (@butterfly_chart) November 4, 2025

Her projection targets a potential rise toward $0.48 by the end of the year or early next year if bullish pressure continues to build.

Other analysts share similar views. Ali Martinez pointed out that the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal, suggesting a local bottom may already be in place.

TD flashes buy on Dogecoin $DOGE. Local bottom might be in! pic.twitter.com/g84k4FtO5d

— Ali (@ali_charts) November 5, 2025

Analyst Chandler argued that DOGE’s biggest rallies tend to follow sharp market reversals in the broader altcoin market, while Ether emphasised that Dogecoin’s long-term bullish structure remains intact despite short-term volatility.

Just a small observation. The biggest bull runs were usually preceded by TOTAL3/TOTAL grinding up. Then you’d get a sharp drop and a clean V-shaped recovery – and that’s when $DOGE would typically peak. Feels like TOTAL3/TOTAL is starting to trend upward again. pic.twitter.com/ueSLiDFw6r

— Chandler⚡️ (@ChandlerCharts) November 6, 2025

Dogecoin price forecast

Market sentiment remains fragile, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sitting at 24, signalling “Extreme Fear,” while Bitcoin’s dominance has climbed above 60%, pulling capital away from altcoins.

If Bitcoin maintains stability above $100,000, capital could flow back into riskier assets like DOGE.

For now, $0.15 stands as the critical line in the sand. A sustained hold above that level could pave the way for consolidation and, eventually, a move toward the $0.17–$0.20 range.

A close below it, however, might open the door to deeper losses near $0.12–$0.114.

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• JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued by $68K and now more attractive than gold.
• BTC slips below $101K as job cuts, weak stocks, and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment.
• Fed rate cut odds rise to 69%, but uncertainty keeps Bitcoin near key $100K level.

Bitcoin wavered below $101,000 on Thursday, slipping 2.4% as risk assets broadly declined.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency mirrored weakness in US equities, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 moving lower amid renewed concerns over the economy and labor market.

Fresh data from employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, revealed more than 153,000 job cuts in October, which is the highest for that month since 2003.

“October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month,” said Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer.

The latest figures added to investor unease, particularly as the ongoing US government shutdown has delayed official employment reports. Analysts suggested the grim data could pressure the Federal Reserve to deliver more rate cuts to support the economy.

“The economy may need more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,” trading analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X, calling the current environment “a new era of monetary policy.”

However, not all market observers are convinced the Fed will move again in December.

Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital cautioned that a rate cut at the upcoming meeting is “not guaranteed,” noting that markets are pricing only 60–65% odds of a follow-up move.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors currently assign a 69% probability to a 0.25% reduction in December.

A prolonged policy pause, QCP added, could keep the US dollar firm and credit conditions tight — factors that typically weigh on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

Institutional outflows pressure Bitcoin sentiment

Beyond macroeconomic concerns, Bitcoin also faces headwinds from waning institutional demand.

QCP Capital pointed to continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have totaled nearly $900 million over the first three days of the week.

The firm described the $100,000 price level as a key “psychological threshold,” suggesting that any stabilization in ETF flows could quickly shift sentiment — provided no new macro shocks emerge.

Market participants have maintained a cautious tone, with many traders eyeing a potential retracement toward the open “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures near $92,000 as a possible support level.

Despite the short-term weakness, analysts at JPMorgan see a longer-term opportunity in the recent decline.

JPMorgan says Bitcoin now undervalued relative to gold

In a note quoted by MarketWatch, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team argued that Bitcoin is now more attractive than gold following its latest pullback.

The bank’s research suggested that the cryptocurrency had previously been “$36,000 too high compared with gold” at the end of last year but is now “around $68,000 too low.”

The shift marks a notable change in tone from the investment bank, which has historically viewed Bitcoin as a speculative asset.

The analysts indicated that Bitcoin’s relative undervaluation could make it appealing to investors seeking alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets.

While institutional outflows have dampened momentum in recent weeks, JPMorgan’s assessment provides a bullish counterpoint, highlighting that the cryptocurrency may have entered oversold territory compared with its long-term benchmarks.

As Bitcoin continues to trade around the $100,000 mark, market participants will be watching whether renewed institutional interest or dovish shifts in monetary policy can reignite the cryptocurrency’s rally in the weeks ahead.

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• Lido is integrating Chainlink’s interoperability standard to power wrapped Staked Ether (wstETH) transfers.
• The Chainlink cross-chain interoperability protocol (CCIP) is now the official cross-chain infrastructure for wstETH.
• wstETH will implement CCIP on supported chains in stages.

Lido, a leading liquid staking protocol on Ethereum, has announced a strategic partnership with Chainlink. 

The protocol has adopted the oracle network’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) as the official infrastructure for securing all cross-chain transfers of the Lido wrapped staked Ether (wstETH) token. 

Integration comes after the Lido DAO community approved the partnership via snapshot voting. 

Key details of the Lido and Chainlink partnership

According to details, the partnership leverages the Cross-Chain Token (CCT) standard to power wstETH transfers. 

It means all future cross-chain operations for wstETH will route through CCIP, replacing native bridges and third-party providers. Chainlink plans to implement this integration progressively across Lido’s 16 supported chains, which include Arbitrum, Base and Linea.

As well as that, there are early deployments on emerging networks, including Plasma, Monad, Ink, and 0G. 

Key benefits and strategic impact

Adopting CCIP unlocks multiple advantages for wstETH holders and DeFi builders. 

CCIP builds on Chainlink’s proven decentralized oracle network that secures over $100 billion in DeFi total value locked.

For wstETH, CCT enables self-serve token deployments, complete DAO ownership of contracts, and programmable features. 

For instance, future-proof expansion supports permissionless onboarding to most top blockchains, while  layered defenses add to security.

Already, Lido’s previous Chainlink integrations, including Data Feeds, power stETH/wstETH adoption across protocols like Aave. 

Lido’s move expands on these features. 

Jakov Buratovic, Master of DeFi at Lido, commented on the integration.

“For stakers, the ability to move assets quickly across the ecosystem is essential for seizing opportunities, rebalancing liquidity, and managing their staked ETH efficiently. By adopting Chainlink CCIP as the official cross-chain standard for wstETH, we’re giving users and builders a standardized, secure way to move wstETH across chains,” Buratovic said.

This partnership positions Lido for greater competitiveness in evolving markets.

Johann Eid, chief business officer at Chainlink Labs, also holds a similar view.

“This integration is set to significantly expand access to wstETH across DeFi, with cross-chain flows secured by Chainlink’s defense-in-depth architecture.”

Lido DAO price outlook

Lido DAO (LDO), the governance token of the Lido liquid-staking protocol, has gained about 5% in the past 24 hours. 

The LDO token gives holders the chance to vote on key protocol decisions such as validator onboarding and protocol upgrades.

The token traded around $0.76, up on the day but still well in the red over the past week and month. However, the token has bounced more than 133% from the all-time lows of $0.3278 reached on October 11, 2025. 

If bulls show resilience amid DeFi resurgence, they could retest the $1 mark.

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