- Analysts estimate forced outflows of up to $15 billion if passive funds are required to sell.
- Strategy accounts for nearly three-quarters of the impacted float-adjusted market capitalisation.
- MSCI’s final decision is due by Jan. 15, with possible implementation in February 2026.
Crypto treasury companies could face heavy selling pressure if MSCI proceeds with a proposal to exclude them from its equity indexes.
Campaigners and analysts warn that removal from widely tracked benchmarks could force passive funds to offload billions of dollars worth of crypto-linked exposure.
The debate has intensified as markets digest months of declining prices and as index providers reassess how to classify firms with large digital asset holdings.
With MSCI’s decision timeline now clear, companies and investors are closely watching what could become a defining moment for crypto’s place in mainstream equity benchmarks.
Potential selling pressure builds
BitcoinForCorporations, a group opposing the proposal, estimates that exclusions could trigger between $10 billion and $15 billion in passive outflows.
The calculation is based on a verified preliminary list of 39 companies with a combined float-adjusted market capitalisation of $113 billion.
Analysts reviewing the same universe put potential outflows at around $11.6 billion across all affected firms.
The largest exposure sits with Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously known as Microstrategy), which represents 74.5% of the total impacted float-adjusted market cap.
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that Strategy alone could see $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indexes.
Such forced selling could add pressure to crypto markets that have already been trending lower for nearly three months.
Why MSCI rules matter
MSCI announced in October that it was consulting investors on whether companies holding the majority of their balance sheet in crypto should be excluded from its indexes.
These benchmarks are used by passive investment funds worldwide to decide which stocks they must hold.
As a result, inclusion or exclusion can directly affect a company’s access to capital and shareholder base.
For crypto treasury firms, index membership has become increasingly important as institutional ownership grows.
Any rule change that leads to exclusion would not be a technical adjustment but a structural shift in how these companies are treated by global asset managers.
Balance sheet debate intensifies
BitcoinForCorporations argues that using balance sheet composition as a deciding factor is flawed.
The group says a single metric does not capture whether a company operates a real business with customers, revenue, and ongoing operations.
Under the proposed approach, firms could be removed even if their core business model remains unchanged.
The group has urged MSCI to abandon the proposal and continue classifying companies based on business activity, financial performance, and operational characteristics rather than crypto exposure alone.
The concern is that the rule would effectively penalise companies for holding digital assets without assessing how those assets fit into broader corporate strategy.
MSCI is expected to publish its final conclusions by January 15.
If approved, implementation would be scheduled for the February 2026 Index Review, setting the stage for potential large-scale reallocations by passive funds.
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