Cardano price analysis: can ADA avoid a drop to $0.13?

  • Cardano (ADA) trades near $0.160 with weak momentum and fading buying pressure.
  • The key support at $0.157 is critical, with $0.13 risk if it breaks.
  • Oversold signals and the Leios testnet could trigger a short rebound soon.

Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, holding near the lower end of its recent range as both spot and derivatives markets reflect cautious sentiment.

The token is priced at $0.1607, down 3.2% in the past 24 hours.

Over longer timeframes, the token is down 6.1% over the past 7 days, down 35.6% over the past month, and down 73.2% in the past year, reflecting sustained downside pressure across the broader trend structure.

Daily trading activity, however, remains active, with $368.8 million in 24-hour volume.

Weak derivatives positioning and fading participation

In the derivatives market, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.96, indicating slightly more short positions than long positions among traders.

Futures open interest is around $348 million, continuing a broader decline from mid-May levels.

This reduction in open interest signals lower speculative engagement and suggests that traders are reducing exposure rather than building conviction positions in either direction.

On-chain indicators also reflect strain in market behaviour.

The Network Realised Profit/Loss (NPL) metric has dropped sharply, showing that a large portion of recent holders have been realising losses rather than gains.

This type of activity is commonly associated with capitulation phases, where weaker holders exit positions under sustained price pressure.

Cardano technical analysis

Cardano remains below its major long-term moving averages, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish.

The altcoin’s price is trading under the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which typically reinforces resistance during attempted recoveries.

Cardano price chart

The RSI (14) on the daily chart is around 31, suggesting bearish control is still present, though no longer in extreme oversold territory.

Cardano price outlook heading into the Leios testnet catalyst

A key event in the near-term outlook is the expected Leios scaling upgrade testnet around June 23.

This upgrade testnet is being closely watched as a potential catalyst for renewed activity within the Cardano ecosystem.

The current market structure at this stage remains weak, but conditions are showing early signs of compression.

Oversold readings on higher timeframes, combined with reduced selling momentum, suggest that price is approaching a decision point rather than continuing in a steady decline without interruption.

If bulls step in around the $0.157 support zone, a short-term rebound toward $0.172 remains the primary recovery scenario.

However, failure to hold this level would keep downside projections toward $0.148 and potentially $0.13 in focus, depending on how market liquidity and sentiment evolve.

Notably, a bearish flag breakdown has also been noted in recent technical assessments, a formation that typically signals continuation of an existing downtrend after a brief consolidation phase.

This adds weight to the downside risk scenario unless buyers regain control above key resistance levels.

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Real Finance puts $20,000 up for grabs in new $ASSET rewards campaign

  • Real Finance launches REAL Competition for the $ASSET ecosystem.
  • Users can earn points by trading, staking and holding $ASSET.
  • A $3400 raffle pool gives more community members a chance to win.

Real Finance has launched the REAL Competition, a community rewards campaign aimed at increasing participation across the $ASSET ecosystem.

The Sofia-based company said the campaign will allow users to earn points through trading, staking and holding $ASSET, with top participants eligible for up to $20,000 in USDC rewards.

The competition also includes an additional raffle prize pool, broadening the reward structure beyond the highest-ranked users.

Real Finance said the campaign is designed to recognise sustained on-chain engagement rather than simply rewarding short-term trading volume.

Points system targets wider ecosystem activity

The REAL Competition introduces a points-based model that tracks qualifying activity involving $ASSET.

Participants can earn points by trading, staking and holding the token, with all activity monitored on-chain through the competition dashboard.

The structure is designed to give users multiple ways to participate.

Active traders can build points through qualifying transactions, while long-term holders and stakers can also improve their standing through sustained participation.

Real Finance said participants will move through a 13-level rewards structure during the campaign.

This approach marks a shift from conventional trading competitions, which often focus mainly on volume.

By including staking and holding activity, the REAL Competition is intended to reward broader involvement across the $ASSET ecosystem.

Leaderboard rewards backed by raffle prizes

The campaign’s main prize structure includes fixed rewards for the top-ranked participants, with total rewards of up to $20,000 in USDC available through the competition.

Real Finance will also distribute rewards through a broader pool based on final point totals.

This means participants outside the highest leaderboard positions may still be eligible for rewards, depending on their accumulated score.

In addition, the company said it will offer a separate raffle reward pool worth $3,400.

The raffle is designed to give more community members a chance to win prizes, even if they do not finish among the top-ranked participants.

“The REAL Competition is designed to reward meaningful participation across our ecosystem,” said Ivo Georgiev, CEO of Real Finance.

Whether users are actively trading, staking for the long term, or steadily building their position in $ASSET, we want to recognize the community members helping drive the growth of the network. By combining leaderboard rewards with raffle prizes, we’re creating opportunities for a broader range of participants to benefit from the campaign.

Campaign to run over coming months

Participants can join the REAL Competition by connecting a supported wallet and completing qualifying $ASSET transactions or staking activities.

Real Finance said users will be able to track their points, leaderboard ranking and unlocked multipliers through the campaign dashboard.

The company said the competition is now live and will run through the coming months, with rewards to be distributed after the campaign concludes.

The REAL Competition is scheduled to go live at 11 AM UTC.

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Solana price forecast: SOL stuck below $72 as bears take control

  • Solana price sits at around $71 with strong resistance at $75.95.
  • Indicators and EMAs show a bearish market trend.
  • Weekly gains contrast with weak momentum and extreme fear sentiment.

Solana price continues to trade in a tight range around the low $70s, with the asset struggling to reclaim the $72 level.

At the time of writing, SOL was trading near $71.26, after a mild 24-hour decline of about 0.7%.

Despite a stronger weekly rebound of roughly 10%, the broader market pattern still shows clear resistance overhead and weakening momentum across multiple technical indicators.

Over the past 24 hours, the Solana price has remained trapped between $70.69 and $74.24, without a decisive trend forming.

Technical structure still favours sellers

Looking at the charts, Solana (SOL) remains under pressure from a layered resistance structure formed by major moving averages.

Recent price movements show that SOL has only managed to reclaim the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs are all positioned above the current price level.

Solana price analysis

This configuration confirms that the broader trend remains bearish, as rallies continue to encounter resistance before reaching higher momentum zones.

The most immediate technical barrier is located at $75.95, a level that must be cleared to signal a potential shift in trend direction.

If this level is broken, projections place the next resistance at $83.32.

On the downside, structural support is clearly defined at $62.40.

A breakdown below $62.40 would expose the Solana price to deeper losses, extending the current corrective phase and potentially triggering accelerated selling pressure.

Notably, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 44.38, reflecting a neutral condition and suggesting indecision in short-term price direction.

However, the weekly RSI has dropped to around 33.07, placing it near the oversold territory and signalling that while selling pressure has been persistent over a longer timeframe, we could see some bullish recovery soon.

The overall market sentiment remains weak

Sentiment conditions continue to reflect caution across the broader market.

The Fear and Greed Index is positioned near 15, a level typically associated with extreme fear.

Such an environment often coincides with defensive positioning, reduced risk appetite, and lower conviction in upward price movements.

Derivative market data also supports this cautious outlook, with the funding rates remaining negative in recent sessions, while short positioning has increased relative to long exposure.

Solana funding rate

In addition, the long-to-short ratio has remained below equilibrium levels, indicating that traders are still leaning toward downside protection rather than sustained bullish positioning.

At the same time, Solana has recorded modest institutional inflows, including small allocations into Solana ETFs totalling just over $1 million.

Solana ETF flows

However, these inflows remain limited in size and have not been sufficient to offset broader bearish positioning in derivatives markets.

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Aztec Network loses over $4 million in three days to two subsequent hacks

  • Legacy Aztec Network contracts were drained of over $4M in three days.
  • Attacks exploited flaws in zero-knowledge proof verification logic.
  • The core Aztec network and AZTEC token were not affected by the exploits.

Aztec’s legacy infrastructure has come under a coordinated wave of attacks, leading to losses that crossed $4 million within just three days.

The exploits targeted deprecated smart contracts that had already been shut down years earlier but still held on-chain liquidity.

Despite being labelled as inactive and immutable, the contracts remained accessible to attackers who exploited weaknesses in zero-knowledge proof verification logic.

While the attacks did not affect the current Aztec network or its AZTEC token, they exposed long-standing risks tied to retired DeFi systems that continue to exist on Ethereum without active maintenance or upgrade paths.

First breach: Aztec Connect drained of $2.1 million

The first incident occurred on June 14, when attackers exploited the Aztec Connect protocol, a deprecated privacy-focused bridge that had been officially shut down after its retirement phase.

The contract was already considered inactive, yet it still contained residual funds.

The attacker managed to drain approximately $2.1 million in digital assets, including around 909 ETH, 270,000 DAI, and 167 wstETH, alongside other smaller holdings.

The exploit was linked to flaws in the way rollup proof verification was handled, allowing invalid or manipulated proofs to be accepted as legitimate.

What made the situation more critical was the nature of the contract itself.

Aztec Connect was described as immutable, meaning it could not be paused or patched once deployed.

Even though users had previously been encouraged to withdraw funds before shutdown, the remaining balance became an easy target for exploitation years later.

Security teams reviewing the incident pointed to a breakdown in the relationship between zero-knowledge proof validation and on-chain settlement logic.

In simple terms, the system accepted proofs that did not correctly match the underlying transaction state, allowing the attacker to trigger unauthorised withdrawals.

Second attack: Private Rollup Bridge exploited for $2.15 million

Just three days later, a second exploit hit another legacy system known as the Private Rollup Bridge.

This contract was also part of Aztec’s older infrastructure and had been deprecated following the transition away from earlier rollup designs.

In this case, attackers drained roughly 1,158 ETH, valued at close to $2.15 million at the time of the incident.

The method used was different in execution but similar in technical root cause.

Instead of directly manipulating withdrawals through basic proof mismatch, the attacker leveraged a vulnerable “escape hatch” mechanism embedded in the bridge design.

By submitting a specially crafted zero-knowledge proof, the attacker was able to trigger the contract’s exit logic.

The system incorrectly validated the proof and released funds without proper verification of the underlying state transitions.

This allowed the attacker to extract liquidity in a single coordinated sequence.

Like the earlier exploit, this breach did not involve private key compromise or reentrancy vulnerabilities.

Instead, it highlighted deeper issues in how proof validation was structured in legacy rollup systems, particularly when contracts remain permanently active on-chain after being officially sunset.

Response from Aztec and security firms

Following both incidents, Aztec Labs and the Aztec Foundation confirmed that the affected systems were deprecated products with no connection to the current Aztec network or AZTEC token ecosystem.

They emphasised that neither contract could be upgraded, paused, or controlled, as both were designed to be immutable at deployment.

Security firm CertiK Alert also flagged the Private Rollup Bridge exploit, identifying the attacker’s address and confirming the movement of funds tied to a specific Ethereum transaction.

Their analysis aligned with other reviews, suggesting that the vulnerability stemmed from flaws in zero-knowledge proof verification rather than conventional smart contract bugs.

Aztec representatives also clarified that the Private Rollup Bridge and Aztec Connect incidents were separate events, even though they occurred within a short timeframe and shared similar technical weaknesses.

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Dogecoin price compresses at critical apex zone seen before past rallies

  • The Dogecoin price sits in a tight range after a recent rebound.
  • Analysts note compression near an apex zone seen before past breakouts.
  • Key levels to watch for the next move are the $0.085 support and the $0.092 resistance.

The Dogecoin price is moving within a tight range after several days of mixed momentum, with price action clustering around a level that traders are now watching closely.

At the time of writing, DOGE was priced near $0.0886, moving between an intraday low of $0.0857 and a high of $0.0890.

Notably, the range has narrowed compared to earlier swings, a structure often described by market participants as price compression.

Over the past 24 hours, DOGE has gained about 1.6%, while its short-term trend shows mild strength with a 3.4% increase over the past week.

Despite that, the broader picture remains uneven. The meme coin is still down roughly 20% over the past 30 days and nearly 50% over the past year, reflecting a market that has struggled to sustain longer-term upside momentum.

Dogecoin price tightens near long-standing support band

The current trading structure places Dogecoin price in a narrow band between $0.085 and $0.089, an area that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent sessions.

Bulls have consistently stepped in near the lower edge of this zone, particularly around $0.0850–$0.0855, preventing deeper breakdowns.

At the same time, upside moves have repeatedly stalled just under $0.089–$0.090, creating a compressed structure where neither buyers nor sellers have gained full control.

This tightening range has led analysts to describe the setup as a potential “apex zone,” where volatility typically contracts before a larger directional move.

The importance of the $0.085 level has been highlighted by several short-term reactions.

Each time the Dogecoin price approached this area, buying pressure returned, pushing DOGE back toward the mid-range near $0.088.

On the upper side, resistance around $0.0905 remains a key level that has not yet been convincingly broken.

The technical structure mirrors past breakout formations

The current setup has drawn comparisons to previous Dogecoin price cycles where prolonged compression preceded sharp expansions.

In earlier market phases, particularly during the 2020–2021 period, DOGE traded in tightening structures before breaking into extended rallies that pushed the memecoin’s price toward its all-time high of $0.7316, reached on May 8, 2021.

A similar pattern is being observed again by technical analysts tracking longer-term formations.

Market analysts note that the Dogecoin price recently rebounded from the $0.0850 zone, briefly moving above $0.0870 and reclaiming short-term momentum indicators such as the 100-hour moving average.

The resistance identified in the current structure includes $0.0920, which has acted as a rejection point in prior moves.

A sustained break above that level would open the path toward $0.0950 and potentially the psychological $0.1000 region, where trading activity typically increases.

On the downside, failure to maintain support at $0.0850 could expose lower levels around $0.0820 and $0.0800, zones that previously acted as consolidation areas during earlier declines.

Another perspective comes from Tardigrade, who describes DOGE as retesting the apex of a long-term triangle formation.

According to Tardigrade, similar compression phases in previous cycles were followed by rapid expansions once the price broke out of the narrowing range.

The current retest suggests that volatility has been steadily declining, a condition often associated with breakout setups rather than trend continuation.

What to watch out for

With DOGE trading near $0.088, the market remains positioned between a well-defined support base and a ceiling that has repeatedly capped upside attempts.

The compressed structure, combined with repeated tests of both boundaries, has created a technical environment where a decisive move is increasingly expected.

The next directional signal is likely to come from a clean break outside the $0.085–$0.092 range.

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