Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly topped the $81,000 mark on Tuesday, the highest level in three months.
• Crypto sentiment improves, with inflows into US-listed spot ETFs totaling $154 million last week.

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering just below the $81,000 mark on Tuesday after adding 1% to its value in the last 24 hours. 

The broader crypto market remains constructive, with Ethereum (ETH) and XRP (Ripple) posting mild gains, reflecting a steady improvement in overall sentiment.

Sentiment improves as capital flows return

Market confidence is gradually recovering, supported by rising inflows into digital asset investment products. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 47 from 29 a day earlier — a sharp rebound, though still within the “fear” zone. Notably, this marks a significant improvement from last month’s average of 11, which signaled extreme fear.

If this upward trend continues, it could reinforce expectations for Bitcoin to reclaim $80,000 as support and potentially grind higher toward the $90,000 level.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their fifth consecutive week of inflows, adding $154 million through Friday. While this is down from the prior week’s $824 million, the data still highlights sustained investor appetite for crypto exposure — even amid geopolitical tensions such as the ongoing US–Iran situation.

Cumulative ETF inflows now stand at $58.72 billion, with assets under management averaging $103.78 billion, underscoring persistent institutional demand.

Bitcoin’s recent move above $81,000 triggered notable liquidations. Short positions took the largest hit, with approximately $138 million wiped out, compared to around $46 million in long liquidations.

Bitcoin eyes the $90k psychological level

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as Bitcoin is trading above $80,800. While the price has reclaimed this long-term support, it remains capped below the 100-week EMA at $82,352, and the 50-week EMA at $85,777These levels continue to act as key resistance zones, limiting a full bullish breakout for now.

Momentum indicators suggest a market in recovery mode. The RSI on the daily chart sits near 48, close to neutral territory, while the MACD remains positive, signaling improving — but not dominant — bullish momentum.

If the rally persists, key resistance levels to watch include $82,352 (100-week EMA) and $85,777 (50-week EMA). 

However, if the bears regain control, key support levels would be seen at  $68,061 (200-week EMA) and $65,981 (trendline level). 

A sustained weekly close above the upper resistance band would be needed to confirm a stronger medium-term bullish shift.

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• AAVE price consolidates as market awaits recovery clarity.
• rsETH recovery plan addresses $246M bad debt from the Kelp DAO exploit.
• The immediate resistance sits at $100 as governance execution drives the outlook.

AAVE token is currently priced at $97.13, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours, while the broader market has remained slightly positive.

That difference has kept AAVE in focus, not because of broad weakness, but because traders are waiting to see whether the proposed recovery plan designed to restore rsETH collateral after the Kelp DAO exploit can be executed cleanly.

The key question is whether the recovery effort can remove uncertainty fast enough to allow the token to reclaim the $100 mark and hold above it.

rsETH collateral recovery plan takes centre stage

The main driver behind AAVE’s current setup is the technical plan proposed to rebuild rsETH collateral after the exploit linked to Kelp DAO.

The exploit left about $246 million in bad debt across Aave and Compound, creating pressure for a coordinated solution rather than a simple market fix.

The proposed plan is designed to restore backing for rsETH and reduce the fallout without spreading the losses across users.

https://t.co/9eUfrt0ESE

— Aave (@aave) April 28, 2026

At the centre of the proposal is a governance-led process across Ethereum and Arbitrum.

The plan calls for temporary oracle adjustments and the liquidation of the attacker’s positions in a controlled way. That makes the recovery effort more structured, but also more dependent on execution.

Traders are now watching the proposal as a practical test of whether Aave Protocol can repair collateral damage without introducing more risk.

In the short term, that uncertainty has kept sentiment measured, even though the plan itself is aimed at stabilising the system.

AAVE price outlook

AAVE’s near-term outlook now depends heavily on how the recovery plan unfolds.

On a technical standpoint, the immediate support is near $96. The token has already spent time close to that area, and a failure to hold it could shift the market tone back toward caution.

A drop below $94 would be more concerning because it would suggest the market is no longer treating the recovery effort as a near-term stabilising force.

The broader technical picture also shows that AAVE is consolidating rather than trending aggressively.

Its current level is close to the 30-day simple moving average of $96.95, which supports the idea that the market is waiting for confirmation before committing to a stronger directional move.

What matters next

Market participants will be looking for approval of the temporary changes needed to support the recovery, as well as signs that collateral restoration is progressing without delays.

If those milestones are reached, AAVE could gain enough confidence to challenge the $100 level again.

Trading volume also shows that the market is engaged but not yet convinced.

The latest 24-hour volume of $254.39 million reflects active participation, but not a broad rush into the token. That usually means the market is waiting for a clearer signal before taking stronger positions.

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TL;DR

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) holds near $42 with a bullish structure above $40.
• The bullish structure is supported by rising futures Open Interest and positive funding rates. 

Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades above $42 on Monday, sustaining its upward trajectory from an ascending trendline. 

While the broader trend remains constructive, signs of cooling retail interest contrast with a steady buildup in leveraged positions, creating a mixed near-term outlook for the decentralized exchange token.

Retail momentum fades as social dominance drops

Retail-driven momentum appears to be weakening. Data from Santiment shows Hyperliquid’s social dominance has declined sharply to 0.137%, down from 0.688% at the height of the US-Iran conflict in late March. 

The drop suggests reduced retail attention as geopolitical tensions ease, removing a key narrative driver that previously fueled speculative interest in the DEX.

In contrast, derivatives activity is heating up. According to CoinGlass, HYPE futures Open Interest (OI) has climbed roughly 3% over the past 24 hours to $1.65 billion, signaling an increase in outstanding leveraged positions.

Funding rates remain positive at 0.0077%, indicating that long positions continue to dominate. This persistent positive funding over the past month reflects growing bullish conviction among leveraged traders, even as spot-driven retail enthusiasm cools.

HYPE price outlook: Rising wedge puts $40 support in focus

The HYPE/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as HYPE is consolidating within a rising wedge.

The token remains supported above both its 50-day EMA at $38.98 and 200-day EMA at $34.90, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.

Momentum indicators suggest steady but controlled upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, pointing to positive but not overbought conditions, while the MACD is trending higher toward a bullish crossover, hinting at fading downside pressure.

If the bulls push higher, they would encounter immediate resistance at the $43.71 level, which caps the current recovery and aligns with the upper wedge boundary near $46.80. A decisive break above this zone could trigger a stronger bullish continuation.

However, if the market undergoes a correction, the ascending trendline support near $41.21 remains critical. 

A breakdown below this level would likely expose the 50-day EMA at $38.98, with the 200-day EMA at $34.90 acting as a deeper demand zone if selling pressure intensifies.

While Hyperliquid’s structure remains bullish above $40, the divergence between fading retail interest and rising leverage suggests the next move could be determined by whether momentum expands or reduces.

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TL;DR

• BTC briefly touched the $79k level during the late hours of Sunday.
• US-listed spot BTC ETFs recorded inflows of over $820 million last week, marking the fourth straight week of positive flows.

Bitcoin (BTC) edges slightly lower on Monday, trading around $77,873 after securing its fourth consecutive weekly gain since late March. Despite the mild pullback, the broader bullish structure remains intact, underpinned by steady institutional demand. 

However, as BTC approaches the critical $80,000 resistance zone, rising geopolitical uncertainty tied to US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz is tempering near-term risk appetite.

Institutional demand remains a key factor

Institutional flows continue to provide strong support for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $823.7 million in net inflows last week, following $996.38 million the week prior. 

This marks four straight weeks of positive inflows, reinforcing sustained institutional interest. If the trend persists or accelerates, it could fuel another leg higher for BTC in the near term.
While fundamentals remain supportive, macro uncertainty is capping momentum. Reports suggest Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current ceasefire, aiming to move toward a longer-term resolution. However, the outcome remains uncertain. 

US President Donald Trump reportedly dismissed the proposal as insufficient, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected negotiations under pressure. This backdrop has dampened risk sentiment, prompting a pause in Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bullish bias intact despite resistance

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient. Technically, Bitcoin maintains a constructive outlook despite facing rejection near $80,000. Last week’s 6% gain pushed BTC above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490, a key resistance zone. 

A sustained move higher could see BTC retest $80,000, with further upside targeting the 200-week EMA at $82,488.

Momentum indicators support the bullish case. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI sits at 54, above the neutral territory, signaling weakening bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish crossover from mid-April, with a rising histogram reinforcing upside potential.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $78,962 (50% retracement), followed by the psychological $80,000 level. A breakout above this zone could open the door toward $83,437 (61.8% retracement) and $84,410.

However, if the bears regain control, initial support sits near $75,680, followed closely by the 100-day EMA at $75,619 and the 38.2% retracement at $74,487. 

A deeper pullback could test the 50-day EMA at $73,363, with further support at $68,950 and the lower channel boundary near $63,033, ahead of the major structural floor at $60,000.

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Key takeaways

• XMR is trading above $380 on Friday, after over 3% rebound from the 200-day EMA on the previous day.
• The positive derivatives data could push XMR’s price above $400. 

Monero (XMR) is trading around $380 on Friday, showing a mild retracement after a 3% gain the previous day. The privacy coin is steadily regaining demand in the derivatives market, as traders anticipate further upside amid a broader market risk-on phase

Monero derivatives signal strong retail sentiment

Monero has continued its recovery since the early February sell-off, with growing retail demand for its derivatives. 

According to CoinGlass data, the XMR futures Open Interest (OI) has risen to $139.39 million, up from $109.94 million on February 7, reflecting renewed investor confidence. 

Furthermore, the OI-weighted funding rate remains positive at 0.0093%, indicating a persistent preference for holding long positions at a premium.

The positive derivatives data indicate that buyers are starting to enter the Monero market. This could push XMR’s price higher in the near to medium term. 

Technical outlook: Can Monero surge to $400?

The XMR/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient, but the structure could flip bullish if Monero continues with its rally. 

Currently, XMR is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $351 and the 200-day EMA at $364.

The 4-hour chart reveals a rising channel pattern, signaling a constructive market structure.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) above its signal line support sustained upside momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance is at $400, aligning with the Inducement Liquidity (ILQ) created on February 4. A breakout above this level could push Monero towards the 50% retracement level at $470, above the 4-hour TLQ level. 

However, if the bears regain control, support is found at the 200-day EMA at $364, followed by the 50-day EMA at $351. 

A deeper pullback below the rising support trendline at $330 would signal a more significant shift in the current constructive outlook.

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