Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) faces losses below $0.2800 after Sunday’s 4% recovery was capped by the 100-day EMA.
• Negative funding rates and a shift in futures market sentiment signal a bearish outlook.

Cardano futures market turns bearish as sentiment shifts

ADA is dpwn 2% in the last 24 hours and could record further losses in the near term. Cardano’s futures market sentiment is shifting to a bearish stance amid a pullback in the spot price this week. 

According to CoinGlass data, the ADA futures Open Interest (OI) rose by over 4% in 24 hours, reaching $596.40 million, indicating a buildup of positions as traders prepare for a potential sharp move.

However, the negative funding rate of -0.0018% suggests that fewer traders are willing to take long positions on ADA, pointing to a bearish outlook. 

Additionally, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.7212, showing that active short positions significantly outnumber long positions, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Technical outlook: ADA faces resistance at the 100-day EMA

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient. At the time of writing, Cardano is trading around $0.2743, maintaining a capped tone below the 100-day EMA at $0.2870. 

While ADA is holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.2603, the technical structure remains cautious, suggesting that the broader bearish trend could continue if support fails to hold.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is inching closer to the signal line, with the positive histogram bars contracting. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 59, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening after an overextended move.

If the rally resumes, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day EMA near $0.2870, with the longer-term 200-day EMA around $0.3696 acting as the next significant barrier.

However, if the bearish trend persists, the 50-day EMA at $0.2603 offers the first notable layer of support.

A daily candle close below this level could signify that the latest rebound is fading and the broader bearish bias is reasserting itself.

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Key takeaways

• Bitcoin trades around $81,000, maintaining a bullish bias but facing resistance at the 200-day EMA. 
• Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could trigger volatility in BTC and risky assets. 

US CPI report could drive volatility for Bitcoin

Bitcoin traders are awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. 

The report is expected to show a sharp increase in inflation, driven in part by higher oil prices amid the ongoing US-Iran tensions.

The monthly CPI is forecast to rise by 0.6%, following March’s 0.9% increase. The annual CPI reading is expected to climb to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March, marking the highest level since September 2023. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is anticipated at 0.3% for the month and 2.7% year-over-year.

The data will likely shape expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), potentially triggering volatility in Bitcoin and other risk assets. 

Additionally, elevated crude oil prices continue to add to inflationary pressures, reinforcing the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed stance, which could weigh on Bitcoin’s upside.

Negative headlines regarding the US-Iran situation could also strengthen the US Dollar (USD) as a reserve currency, further dampening short-term risk appetite.

Despite the uncertain macro environment, Bitcoin’s institutional and corporate demand remains strong, providing support for its price.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $27.25 million on Monday, according to CoinGlass data, breaking a two-day streak of outflows from the previous week. 

While these inflows were modest, they reflect a cautious yet positive outlook from investors. If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price could see further upward movement.

On the corporate side, Strategy (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, added another 535 BTC to its treasury reserve on Monday, bringing its total Bitcoin holding to 818,869 BTC. 

The company has consistently accumulated Bitcoin over recent months, with an average purchase price of $75,540—above the current market price, adding to the bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Resistance at 200-day EMA

Bitcoin is trading around $81,000 on Tuesday, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $76,700. 

The 50% Fibonacci retracement at $78,962 also provides strong support. However, Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at the 200-day EMA, located around $82,130. 

A break above this level would likely open the path to the next resistance zone around $83,437 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and $84,410 (horizontal barrier).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is at 55, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains mildly positive, suggesting that while momentum is bullish, there are no immediate overbought conditions.

If the rally continues, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-day EMA around $82,130, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $83,437 and the horizontal barrier near $84,410. 

However, if the bearish trend persists, sellers would encounter support at the psychological $80,000 level, ahead of the 50% retracement at $78,962, with the 100-day and 50-day EMAs near $76,647 and $76,248, the channel top around $75,680.

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Key takeaways

• Stellar continues consolidating between its 50-day and 100-day EMAs. 
• CryptoQuant data suggests a neutral-to-bullish outlook for XLM.

On-chain and derivatives data support a mild bullish outlook

Stellar traded cautiously on Tuesday, but improving on-chain activity and derivatives positioning continued to support expectations for a potential upside breakout in both altcoins.

According to CryptoQuant summary data, Stellar reflects buy-side dominance with largely neutral market conditions, pointing to a mild bullish bias despite the lack of a decisive breakout.

CoinGlass data shows the OI-weighted funding rates for XLM flipped positive on Friday and remained positive on Tuesday at 0.0030%, respectively. Positive funding rates indicate that long-position holders are paying shorts, reflecting growing bullish positioning among traders.

Stellar technical outlook: Consolidation continues between key EMAs

The XLM/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as it is currently trading at $0.164 per coin. It is currently trading between major moving averages as traders await a clearer directional move.

XLM continues to hold above its 50-day EMA near $0.165 but remains below the 100-day EMA at $0.174 and the 200-day EMA around $0.204. Broader descending trendline resistance also continues to cap upside attempts.

Momentum indicators nevertheless show early signs of improvement. The RSI sits near 57, slightly above the neutral midpoint. The MACD line remains marginally above zero, suggesting mild bullish momentum.

If the rally resumes, the bulls would encounter resistance at key levels, including the 100-day EMA at $0.174, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.201, and the 200-day EMA just above $0.204.

However, if the bearish trend persists, immediate support would be seen at the 50-day EMA at $0.165. A daily candle close below this level would expose the major support at $0.136.

As long as XLM maintains support above the 50-day EMA, the current consolidation structure could support a gradual recovery attempt. However, a breakdown below $0.136 would likely reopen the broader bearish trend.

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Key takeaways

• XRP slipped below $1.50 as renewed Middle East tensions weakened broader crypto sentiment.
• XRP investment products saw nearly $40 million in inflows last week, while futures open interest climbed to $2.87 billion.

XRP tests key $1.45 support despite strong ETF and futures inflows

Ripple’s XRP retreated from highs near $1.50 and hovered around $1.46 on Monday as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pressured broader crypto markets and cooled recent bullish momentum.

The pullback followed comments from US President Donald Trump, who reportedly rejected Iran’s latest proposal aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in the region, calling the offer “totally unacceptable.” 

The proposal included conditions tied to Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz alongside demands for compensation related to war damages.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei defended the proposal, describing it as “reasonable” and “generous” for both Iran’s national interests and regional stability.

The renewed uncertainty rattled risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which had recently rallied on hopes of a lasting ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. XRP is up by less than 1% today as traders reassessed the broader macro outlook.

Despite the market weakness, capital inflows into XRP investment products remained resilient last week.

According to CoinShares, XRP-related digital investment products attracted nearly $40 million in inflows, with total assets under management averaging $2.5 billion, ranking fourth among crypto investment products.

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) accounted for approximately $34 million of those inflows, while cumulative ETF inflows climbed to $1.32 billion. Net ETF assets under management currently stand at around $1.12 billion, according to CoinGlass data.

Meanwhile, derivatives activity suggests retail traders continue positioning for further upside. XRP futures Open Interest (OI) surged to $2.95 billion from $2.65 billion a day earlier, indicating growing participation and investor conviction despite the recent pullback.

XRP technical outlook: bulls defend key EMA support zone

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish as Ripple continues to trade above key levels. XRP is currently trading above the 50, 100, and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the 4-hour chart clustered between $1.40 and $1.42, reinforcing a constructive short-term bias.

However, the $1.50 area remains a major resistance barrier after acting as a double-top ceiling during the recent rally.

Momentum indicators suggest bullish momentum is cooling rather than reversing entirely. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the high-50s, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) has eased from overbought territory, signaling a pause in buying pressure.

If the selloff persists, XRP could encounter a support level near the 50 EMA around $1.42, followed by stronger support around the 100 EMA at $1.41 and the 200 EMA near $1.40.

However, if the bulls regain control and XRP’s daily candle closes above the $1.50 resistance zone, it could pave the way for a more extended bullish move in the sessions ahead.

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Key takeaways

• SEI is up 10%, outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market.
• The coin could extend its rally towards the $0.092 daily swing high in the near term.

The cryptocurrency market opened the new weekly candle mixed as some coins rallied while others underperformed.

SEI, the native coin of the Sei blockchain, is one of the best performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

The coin is up by 10% in the last 24 hours and could extend its rally in the near term. Technical indicators suggest that SEI could surge past a key resistance level as the broader market remains strong. 

SEI rallies as Sei Labs completes EVM Transition

The primary catalyst behind SEI’s latest rally is the completion of its unified EVM architecture. 

The team announced over the weekend that it has completed its transition to a unified, EVM-only architecture. 

This means that exchanges and custodians supporting the SEI token need to migrate customer holdings before support for Cosmos and IBC-related functionality is deprecated.

The team’s core message: Sei EVM is not a separate chain. “It’s the same chain with a second way to interact with it,” Sei Labs said in the announcement. Any venue that treats “Sei” and “Sei EVM” as two distinct integrations needs to consolidate them into one.

The push closes out SIP-3, the May 2025 governance vote that approved Sei’s pivot to a fully EVM-only architecture. 

The transition has rolled out in stages through 2026, with EVM staking added in January, inbound IBC transfers disabled in February, and the native oracle replaced by Chainlink, Pyth, and API3 in March.

SEI bulls target the $0.080 resistance level

The SEI/USD 4H chart is bearish and inefficient thanks to Sei’s latest rally. The momentum indicators suggest that the bulls remain in control of the market.

The RSI of 70 means that SEI is approaching the overbought region, which could signal incoming selling pressure. The MACD lines are also within the positive territory, adding further confluence to the bullish narrative.

If the bullish trend persists, SEI could rally past the $0.0800 level in the near term. The swing high on the daily chart at $0.09248 could be SEI’s target in the coming days and weeks.

However, if the sellers regain control, SEI could drop to the support level at $0.07021. Losing this level could see the bears push the price lower towards the $0.06490 pyschological level. 

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