Kategorie: Crypto Analysis

Key takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) is trading lower as bullish momentum fades.
• Derivatives data shows bearish positioning, with long-to-short ratios below 1 
• Positive funding rates indicate traders are still willing to maintain long positions despite the pullback.

Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure on Tuesday as the coin extends its recent pullbacks.

Although prices have weakened, derivatives and on-chain metrics suggest investor sentiment has not turned decisively bearish. 

Instead, market participants appear cautiously optimistic, with traders balancing expectations for a potential recovery against continued short-term weakness.

Derivatives data shows mixed sentiment

Recent derivatives metrics present conflicting signals for the digital asset. According to CoinGlass, XLM’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.84, also near a one-month low.

A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions outnumber long positions, suggesting traders are increasingly betting on further downside.

However, funding rates tell a different story. XLM’s funding rates read 0.0058%, indicating that the bulls are still paying the bears. 

Positive funding rates mean traders holding long positions are paying those holding shorts, indicating that bullish positioning still outweighs bearish conviction among leveraged participants.

The divergence between positioning and funding suggests many investors remain cautiously optimistic despite the recent correction.

Stellar technical outlook: XLM holds above key support

Stellar continues to trade above its short-term moving averages, preserving a modest bullish bias despite recent weakness.

XLM is currently trading near $0.193, holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.1922 and the 100-day EMA at $0.1872

However, the token remains capped below the 200-day EMA at $0.1985 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.2001

These levels represent immediate resistance for the current recovery attempt. Technical indicators continue to lean slightly positive. The RSI remains near 48, reflecting bearish momentum, while the MACD stays above the zero line, suggesting underlying bullish momentum has not yet faded completely.

If the bulls regain control, XLM could rally towards the $0.1985 (200-day EMA) and $0.2001 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

A daily candle close above these levels would allow XLM to extend its rally towards the $0.2188, $0.2376, and $0.2607 resistance zones. 

However, if the bearish trend persists, XLM could drop below $0.1922 (50-day EMA) and $0.1872 (100-day EMA) in the near term.

A decisive close below these levels would expose lower demand zones at $0.1774, $0.1735 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), and $0.1421 (major structural support)

Holding above the 50-day EMA would help preserve XLM’s near-term recovery, while a break below $0.1872 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers.

The post Mixed market signals leave XLM at key technical levels appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $64,000 despite improving derivatives data.
• Analysts at QCP note that July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, averaging gains of around 7.5%.
• Glassnode says Bitcoin is showing signs of structural stabilization, with spot selling pressure easing significantly.

Bitcoin (BTC) started July on firmer footing, recovering above the $63,000 level as improving derivatives positioning and easing selling pressure helped stabilize the cryptocurrency market.

The rebound follows several weeks of volatility and comes as analysts point to historically favorable seasonal trends, strengthening technical conditions, and improving institutional flows as factors supporting Bitcoin’s recovery.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $63,190, up approximately 0.6% over the past 24 hours.

July seasonality favors Bitcoin bulls

Analysts at crypto trading firm QCP noted that Bitcoin’s early-July recovery aligns with historical market patterns.

According to the firm, July has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest-performing months, delivering average returns of roughly 7.5%.

QCP added that lighter trading volumes during the U.S. Independence Day holiday helped preserve the bullish momentum that emerged after softer-than-expected U.S. labor market data eased pressure on risk assets.

The firm also observed that stress across Bitcoin’s derivatives market has begun to ease.

Recent derivatives data suggests traders are becoming less defensive. QCP highlighted several encouraging developments:

• Implied volatility continues to trend lower.
• Near-term put option skew has moderated after rising sharply during the recent market decline.
• Traders have shown notable interest in $70,000 call options expiring at the end of July, indicating expectations for additional upside.

However, optimism remains measured.

The firm also pointed to ongoing demand for $58,000 put options expiring later this year, reflecting concerns among some investors that Bitcoin’s current rebound could resemble the temporary recovery seen during the 2022 bear market before prices resumed their decline.

Bitcoin price forecast: BTC could drop below $63,000

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient following last week’s rally. The momentum indicators suggest that the market is currently consolidating.

The RSI of 55 means that neither the buyers nor the sellers are in control. The MACD lines are also in the neutral zone, reinforcing the current bias.

If the bearish trend resumes, BTC could slip below the $63,000 level and test the 4-hour TLQ at $61,365. 

However, if the bulls regain control, Bitcoin could surge past the $64,000 barrier and retest the June 15 high of $67,125.

The post Bitcoin could drop below $63k as market structure remains volatile appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP started the week holding onto last week’s strong gains.
• Ethereum is approaching its 50-day EMA near $1,806, a key hurdle for extending its recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) began the week on a constructive note after surging over 6%, 13% and 10% in the previous week. 

BTC holds steady below $63,000, ETH approaches a key technical resistance at $1,800, while XRP has broken above the upper boundary of a falling channel, strengthening the bullish outlook.

Ethereum tests key resistance near the 50-Day EMA

Ethereum (ETH) is also extending last week’s recovery after climbing more than 13%, trading near $1,784 on Monday.

The cryptocurrency is approaching a significant technical hurdle at the 50-day EMA around $1,806, which currently serves as the first major resistance level.

Despite the recent rebound, Ethereum remains below the 100-day EMA near $1,972 and the 200-day EMA around $2,241, leaving the broader trend tilted to the downside.

However, technical momentum continues to strengthen. The RSI is hovering near 57, indicating healthy buying momentum, while the MACD remains firmly positive, suggesting bulls continue to regain control after recent weakness.

If ETH successfully breaks above the 50-day EMA, attention would shift toward resistance near $1,972, followed by the psychologically important $2,000 level and the 200-day EMA around $2,242.

On the downside, the strongest support remains near $1,385, where buyers previously stepped in to defend the market.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have all entered the new week with improving momentum following strong performances last week.

While each asset faces important technical resistance, bullish indicators continue to strengthen.

A decisive move above $64,000 for Bitcoin, $1,806 for Ethereum, and continued strength above XRP’s channel breakout could reinforce the recovery across the broader cryptocurrency market and set the stage for further gains.

The post Ethereum begins new week on strong footing as bulls target key breakout levels appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is trading below $64,000 after rallying more than 6% last week.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.64 million in net outflows, marking an eighth consecutive week of withdrawals.
• Renewed geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are limiting demand for risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly lower on Monday after climbing more than 6% last week, with buyers struggling to push the cryptocurrency above the key $64,000 resistance level.

Although last week’s rebound improved short-term sentiment, persistent institutional selling and renewed geopolitical uncertainty continue to cap upside momentum.

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between improving technical conditions and cautious macroeconomic sentiment.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs extend historic outflow streak

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains under pressure. According to CoinGlass data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $526.64 million in net outflows during the previous week.

The withdrawals mark the eighth consecutive week of net redemptions, extending the longest outflow streak since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading.

If institutional investors continue reducing exposure this week, Bitcoin could face renewed selling pressure despite last week’s rebound.

Global geopolitical uncertainty remains another obstacle for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency rallied last week after easing tensions between the United States and Iran briefly improved investor sentiment.

However, optimism has faded as concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced.

Reports that Iran may introduce new service fees for vessels passing through the strategically important shipping route have renewed uncertainty, while the United States and several Gulf allies continue opposing such measures.

The lingering geopolitical risks have kept investors cautious, limiting demand for higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bulls defend long-term support

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade above a critical long-term support level.

Last week’s rally allowed BTC to reclaim the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62,867 after bouncing from an ascending trendline that has supported prices since early 2023.

Holding above this level keeps the broader recovery intact. If buyers maintain control above the 200-week SMA, Bitcoin could extend its advance toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520, measured from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 record high.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade below its major moving averages. The cryptocurrency remains beneath the 50-day EMA at $65,744, the 100-day EMA at $69,455, and the 200-day EMA at $75,471, leaving the broader trend tilted to the downside despite recent gains.

Immediate resistance is located around $64,004. A successful breakout above that level could allow Bitcoin to challenge the 50-day EMA, with additional upside targets at the 100-day EMA, the 200-day EMA, and eventually the major resistance area near $84,410.

While momentum has improved, the daily RSI near 49 and a positive MACD crossover indicate buyers are gradually regaining strength, although confirmation of a sustained uptrend is still lacking.

The 200-week SMA at $62,867 remains the most important support level in the near term.

A sustained move below that area would weaken the current recovery and expose the long-term ascending trendline near $58,000. If selling pressure intensifies further, Bitcoin could revisit its yearly low around $57,800.

Bitcoin has recovered significantly from recent lows, but the rally is encountering resistance just below $64,000.

Persistent ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and overhead technical resistance continue to limit upside potential.

As long as BTC holds above its 200-week SMA, the recovery remains intact. However, buyers will need to reclaim $64,004 and then $65,744 to build momentum for a broader move higher.

The post Bitcoin dips below $63K amid ETF outflows and geopolitical risks appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key takeaways

• Risk sentiment across financial markets remained fragile following conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials.
• XRP risks dropping below $1.0 if the bearish trend persists. 

Ripple’s XRP remained under pressure on Wednesday, trading below $1.10 and maintaining a broader bearish outlook. 

The remittance-focused cryptocurrency failed to extend an early-week recovery attempt as investors reacted to renewed geopolitical uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Mixed US-Iran signals fuel market uncertainty

Risk sentiment across financial markets remained fragile following conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials after the first round of peace negotiations held in Switzerland.

US Vice President JD Vance said late Monday that Iran had agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) back into the country. However, Iranian authorities disputed the claim, insisting that Tehran had made no additional commitments during the discussions.

Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the United States had agreed to release approximately $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump warned reporters that Washington would take further action if Iran failed to comply with the terms of any agreement.

The conflicting messages have contributed to risk-off sentiment across cryptocurrency markets, limiting demand for digital assets and reinforcing bearish pressure on XRP.

Investor sentiment across the cryptocurrency market remains weak despite a slight improvement in confidence levels.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a reading of 23 on Monday, remaining firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory. While the index improved marginally from 20 recorded a day earlier, market participants continue to adopt a cautious stance amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

The subdued sentiment suggests that traders remain reluctant to aggressively accumulate risk assets, increasing the likelihood that short-term rallies could face selling pressure.

XRP price forecast: Bears continue to control the trend

From a technical perspective, XRP continues to exhibit a bearish structure on the daily timeframe.

The token is trading well below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), including the 50-day EMA at $1.25, the 100-day EMA at $1.35, and the 200-day EMA at $1.56.

XRP also remains below the middle Bollinger Band near $1.15, reinforcing the current downward bias.

Momentum indicators further support the cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 38, signaling weak bearish momentum without yet reaching oversold conditions. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive around the zero line, indicating tentative stabilization rather than a decisive trend reversal.

For XRP to regain bullish momentum, buyers must overcome several important resistance zones.

The first hurdle lies at the Bollinger Band midpoint near $1.15, followed by resistance at the upper Bollinger Band around $1.22.

Beyond that, the 50-day EMA at $1.25 and a descending trendline near $1.28 create a significant supply zone. Additional resistance levels are located at the 100-day EMA around $1.35 and the 200-day EMA near $1.56.

A successful break above these barriers would be required to shift the broader market structure back toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, XRP’s immediate support is located near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.07.

A decisive breakdown below this level could accelerate selling pressure and expose the token to a retest of the recent support zone around $1.05.

Should bearish momentum intensify further, traders may look toward the psychologically important $1.00 level as the next major area of demand.

Until buyers reclaim key resistance levels, XRP remains susceptible to additional downside risk in the near term.

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