Bitwise CIO: US election is going to be a speed bump or wind gust for crypto

  • Bitcoin’s value has risen over 400% between 2020 and 2024
  • Solana has increased in value by nearly 4,500% from $1.49 to around $166 in four years
  • This trajectory of positivity will continue beyond the 2024 US elections, according to Matt Hougan

Bitwise’s CIO has said while Washington can alter the trajectory of the crypto market by speeding things up or slowing them down, it can’t stop it.

In his latest client memo, Matt Hougan wrote about crypto in an election year, claiming that crypto has already won, regardless of who becomes the next President of the United States.

Comparing the state of the crypto market from November 2020 to November 2024, Hougan questioned whether things are better or worse since the last time Americans went to the polls.

Despite several lawsuits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – notably against Binance, Coinbase, Cumberland DRW, Kraken, and Ripple – the crypto industry has made significant progress.

A four-year difference

Looking between the two US elections, Hougan points out that Bitcoin was trading at $13,677 in November 2020. Fast-forward to November 2024 and Bitcoin is valued at around $69,492, indicating a 408% change.

Ethereum has also seen a positive increase from its humble $388 in 2020 to its now $2,492 in the runup to the 2024 US election. However, it’s Solana that has seen a major increase in price rising nearly 11,000% from $1.49 in 2020 to around $166 in 2024.

Turning to assets under management (AUM), Hougan shows that stablecoin AUM rose from $3.87 billion in November 2020 to $177.83 billion in November 2024, representing a near 4,500% change.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) also experienced a healthy boost, jumping from $9.57 billion in 2020 to $139.3 billion in 2024.

“We focus so much in crypto on the moment-by-moment movement of prices that we often lose sight of the long-term trends,” Hougan wrote. “The presidential election provides a nice opportunity to step back and see how far we’ve come.”

What next?

So much has already happened in the crypto market over four years, but will that continue as the market goes beyond the 2024 US election?

In Hougan’s view, the answer is yes. Regardless of who becomes the next POTUS, Hougan said – among other things – that spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows will continue, stablecoins will continue to grow, Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets, blockchains will get faster and cheaper, and real-world applications such as Polymarket will gain mainstream adoption.

“What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term,” said Hougan. “But as I see it, over the long term Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train.”

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Mt. Gox moves $2.2 billion in Bitcoin as it works to repay creditors

  • Mt. Gox moved 32,371 Bitcoin to two wallets, amounting to $2.19 billion
  • The movement follows the transfer of 500 Bitcoin worth more than $35 million
  • In October, Mt. Gox announced it was pushing its repayment deadline to October 31, 2025

Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox has moved another $2.19 billion to two unmarked wallets, according to data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence.

Of the $2.19 billion, 30,371 Bitcoin was transferred to wallet 1FG2C…Rveoy. The extra 2,000 Bitcoin was sent to a cold wallet before being transferred to wallet 15gNRV…Aok. According to data from Arkham, the movement of Bitcoin comes five days after the exchange moved 500 Bitcoin worth over $35 million.

It’s one of the largest movements the exchange has made this year. In May, it was reported that Mt. Gox had transferred over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new wallet. In July, the platform moved a further $2.8 billion. In both of these instances, it was thought Mt Gox’s trustee was preparing for repayment to creditors.

It may be that this further movement of Bitcoin is related to repaying creditors, something they have been waiting for since a hack caused the exchange to collapse in 2014. In October, Mt. Gox pushed its repayment deadline to October 31, 2025, adding another year from its original date.

Last month, Mt. Gox said the extended deadline was down to two things: creditors not completing the repayment steps and issues arising from the repayment process.

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There’s another Bitcoin creator in town, but this one is Stephen Mollah

  • Stephen Mollah said he was Satoshi Nakamoto in front of a dozen journalists in London
  • Bitcoin core developer Peter Todd was wrongly named as Nakamoto last month in an HBO documentary

Another man has come forward claiming to be the mysterious creator behind Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.

This time, he’s called Stephen Mollah. Taking to the stage at London’s Front Line Club in front of around a dozen journalists, Mollah made the claim with one journalist calling it an “odd set up.”

Live tweeting the event on X, Joe Tidy, a BBC journalist, said: “An odd set up to the press conference as the organiser asked me to pay £500 to attend and appear on stage to ask questions of the billionaire mystery man.”

According to Mollah, he’s claimed he’s Nakamoto before, is currently in a legal dispute about it, and is now ready to provide evidence. He tried to reveal who he was in 2016, but “someone stopped him.”

After an hour of listening to Mollah’s backstory, he failed to provide evidence. Instead, he supplied a series of screenshots that could have easily been faked. When Mollah was asked to move some of the Genesis Bitcoin, he said he would in the ‘next few months.’

Mollah and Charles Anderson, the event organizer, have been accused of fraud when Mollah posed as Nakamoto between November 2022 and October last year. The pair pleaded not guilty at a hearing last month, The Standard reports.

Another one to the list

Mollah joins a growing list of people who have claimed to be Nakamoto or others believe them to be.

Last month, the HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery wrongly named Bitcoin core developer Peter Todd as Nakamoto. Before the big reveal, the documentary also pointed to Blockstream founder Adam Back.

Following the documentary, Todd said he’d been forced underground over fears for his safety.

Others believed to be Nakamoto include late software engineer Hal Finney and computer scientist Nick Szabo.

In May, a UK High Court ruled against Australian Craigt Wright that he was Nakamoto, arguing that Wright had lied “extensively and repeatedly” throughout the trial, further accusing him of presenting “fabricated” evidence to support his claims.

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Ex-President Donald Trump wishes Bitcoin whitepaper a happy 16th anniversary

  • Trump wished a happy birthday to the anniversary of Bitcoin’s whitepaper and called on ending “Kamala’s war on crypto”
  • Since Bitcoin’s initial days, its price has risen to over $72,000 and is accepted as legal tender in El Salvador
  • Trump’s post comes less than a week before the US election results are in

Former US President Donald Trump has sent well wishes celebrating the 16th anniversary of Bitcoin’s whitepaper.

Posting on X, Trump said: “I would like to wish our great Bitcoiners a Happy 16th Anniversary of Satoshi’s White Paper,” adding:

“We will end Kamala’s war on crypto & Bitcoin will be MADE IN THE USA! VOTE TRUMP! #Bitcoin #FreeRossDayOne.”

On October 31, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, released the whitepaper Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, which would change how we view money.

Detailing how the current financial system works, the author proposed introducing a new “electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.”

Initially looked at with scepticism, Bitcoin’s price has since soared to more than $72,000 as it makes its way toward its March all-time high of $73,700, is accepted as legal tender in El Salvador, and retail and institutional investors can invest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Trump’s post comes less than a week when the results will be in announcing the next POTUS. Trump and his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris have both been vocal in supporting the crypto industry should they lead the government.

In September, Harris said during a US presidential campaign that, if elected, she would help grow investment in artificial intelligence and crypto. She has also promised to support a “regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and other digital assets.”

Meanwhile, Trump has said he’ll make America the “crypto capital of the world.” Trump has also backed a crypto project called World Liberty Financial, which plans to launch a stablecoin linked to the US dollar. Raising $14 million in initial funding, the project plans to capitalize on the growing demand for stablecoins.

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Tether increases its Bitcoin and gold holdings to $4.8B and $5B respectively

  • Tether (USDT) circulation surged to $120B, marking a 30% increase in 2024.
  • Tether’s Bitcoin and gold holdings increased to $4.8B and $5B, respectively.
  • Tether’s net equity doubled to $14.2B, while it faces ongoing legal challenges.

Tether has announced a substantial increase in its Bitcoin and gold reserves, as detailed in its latest Q3 2024 Consolidated Financials Figures and Reserves Report.

Tether’s Bitcoin holdings have reached an impressive $4.8 billion, while its gold reserves now stand at $5 billion, reflecting the company’s strategy to bolster its asset base amid rising global demand for its stablecoin, USDT.

Circulation of USDT increases by 30%

This quarter has been particularly notable for Tether, as the circulation of USDT has soared to a record $120 billion, marking a 30% increase in 2024.

This surge adds $27.8 billion year-to-date and positions Tether’s market cap close to that of its competitor, Circle’s USDC, which currently stands at $35 billion according to CoinGecko data.

Tether’s growth is indicative of the increasing reliance on stablecoins within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, driven by greater adoption and market confidence.

Tether expands its US Treasury Bills holdings

Additionally, Tether has significantly expanded its holdings in US Treasury Bills, which now total $84.5 billion, constituting the largest segment of its reserves. This strategic move has contributed to Tether’s robust financial health, with net equity doubling to $14.2 billion from $7 billion at the end of 2023.

Furthermore, through its subsidiary, Tether Investments Limited, the company manages an additional $7.7 billion in assets across sectors such as sustainable energy, Bitcoin mining, and data infrastructure. However, these assets are not included in the reserves backing Tether tokens.

Despite its growth, Tether is currently navigating three civil litigation proceedings involving its holdings and operations. Notably, these cases include a class action related to Bitcoin’s price decline in 2017-2018, a lawsuit stemming from the Celsius bankruptcy, and a dispute over USDT in a non-Tether controlled wallet.

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