BTC at $143K, ETH above $4000: Citi issues bullish price forecasts as crypto market continues to struggle

  • Citi forecasts Bitcoin at $143K and Ethereum at $4,304 in 12 months.
  • Regulatory clarity and adoption drive institutional interest in crypto.
  • Short-term risks, including bearish patterns, options expiry, and ETF outflows, still linger.

Citigroup has delivered one of the most upbeat outlooks from a major Wall Street institution on digital assets, forecasting strong upside for both Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next year.

The bank’s projections come at a time when crypto markets are navigating sharp short-term volatility while longer-term adoption trends continue to strengthen.

A bullish baseline with room to run

In a recent research note, Citigroup set a 12-month price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin, representing an upside of roughly 62% from levels near $88,000 at the time of the forecast.

The bank also gave Ethereum a favourable outlook, with a target price of $4,304, implying potential gains of about 46% from around $2,950.

The bank said its forecasts reflect improving market conditions after recent drawdowns, arguing that crypto prices are now closer to measures of value tied to actual user activity.

Citi framed its base case as a recovery scenario rather than an aggressive speculative call, noting that valuations have adjusted following the pullback from October highs.

Beyond its baseline projections, Citi also outlined a wide range of possible outcomes.

In a bullish scenario, the bank sees Bitcoin climbing as high as $189,000 and Ethereum reaching $5,132.

Under a bearish case, however, Bitcoin could slide to $78,000, while Ethereum may fall toward $1,270, underscoring the asset class’s persistent volatility.

Regulation shifts from risk to catalyst

Citi identified regulatory developments as the central driver behind its constructive stance.

The bank pointed to a noticeable shift by US authorities toward clearer, more tailored frameworks for digital assets, replacing years of regulatory uncertainty with defined rules.

Several enforcement actions and lawsuits against major crypto platforms have been dismissed, a change Citi believes could encourage institutional investors to re-engage with the sector.

The bank also highlighted President Donald Trump’s pro-digital-asset rhetoric, which has coincided with broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies within traditional finance.

According to Citi, these policy shifts have the potential to unlock renewed capital inflows, particularly from institutions that previously stayed on the sidelines.

The firm expects regulatory clarity to support adoption across spot markets, ETFs, and tokenised financial products over the coming year.

Volatility clouds the near-term forecasts

Despite the optimistic outlook, Citi acknowledged that recent market turbulence remains a significant headwind.

Bitcoin fell to multi-month lows in November as investors reduced exposure to risk assets amid concerns over elevated technology stock valuations.

Market sentiment has weakened further in December after Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, cut its 2025 earnings forecast.

Strategy cited Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness, drawing heightened attention given its outsized exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Short-term technical signals also suggest caution, seeing that Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart and remains below key moving averages and the Supertrend indicator.

Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: TradingView

Analysts warn that the price could dip toward $87,341, or even $85,188.

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Why quantum computing is becoming a real concern for Bitcoin

  • Charles Edwards warns Bitcoin could face sharp price pressure if upgrades are delayed.
  • Banks are already moving toward post-quantum encryption, increasing Bitcoin’s relative exposure.
  • Crypto leaders remain divided on urgency, mitigation strategies, and timelines.

Quantum computing has long hovered on the fringes of crypto risk discussions, often dismissed as a distant or hypothetical challenge. That framing is now being questioned.

New warnings from within the Bitcoin ecosystem suggest the technology may become a practical threat sooner than expected, with implications not just for network security but also for market confidence.

As timelines tighten and views diverge, the debate is shifting from abstract theory to concrete preparedness, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s current cryptographic foundations are ready for what comes next.

Quantum threat timelines tighten

The core concern around quantum computing lies in its potential ability to break widely used cryptographic systems.

For Bitcoin, this could mean exposing private keys linked to public addresses, allowing attackers to access funds or compromise sensitive data.

Until recently, most discussions placed this risk decades into the future.

That assumption was challenged this week by Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole.

In an X post on Wednesday, Edwards suggested that quantum risk could become critical by 2028.

He argued that if Bitcoin does not become quantum-resistant within that window, the consequences could be severe for both security and price stability.

His comments pointed to a narrower timeline than many in the industry have assumed.

Price risk linked to inaction

Edwards tied the technical challenge directly to market behaviour.

He warned that failure to deploy a solution by 2028 could see Bitcoin trade well below $50,000 and remain under pressure until the issue is resolved.

In his view, the lack of urgency stems from complacency, with meaningful action likely only after a significant market downturn forces the issue.

He has also indicated that any effective quantum patch would need to be rolled out by 2026 to avoid destabilising the network.

Delays beyond that point, he suggested, could trigger a prolonged and deep bear market driven by eroding confidence rather than a single external shock.

Why Bitcoin may be exposed

Sceptics of the quantum threat argue that the technology remains too immature to pose a near-term risk.

They point out that banks, governments, and large institutions would be targeted first, giving Bitcoin ample warning time to adapt.

Edwards disputes this view. He has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin could be an early target precisely because of its design.

Many banks and institutions are already migrating toward post-quantum encryption standards, while Bitcoin continues to rely on existing cryptographic assumptions.

In addition, fraudulent transactions in traditional finance can often be reversed or blocked, whereas Bitcoin transactions are irreversible once confirmed, increasing the potential impact of any breach.

A divided crypto response

Views across the crypto ecosystem remain sharply split on how seriously Bitcoin should treat the quantum threat.

Some participants argue that interim measures already exist to reduce exposure over the next several years, buying time for more comprehensive upgrades to be designed and implemented at the protocol level.

Others dismiss the issue as overstated, maintaining that quantum computing remains too underdeveloped to pose a meaningful risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography.

From this perspective, heightened concern is seen as premature and potentially driven by broader narratives rather than immediate technical realities.

These contrasting positions underline an unresolved tension within the Bitcoin community.

As quantum capabilities progress, the discussion is shifting from whether the threat is real to how quickly Bitcoin needs to adapt to safeguard its long-term security.

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Bhutan plans to fund Gelephu Mindfulness City using national Bitcoin reserves

  • Bhutan plans to use up to 10,000 Bitcoin from its national reserves to fund Gelephu Mindfulness City.
  • Bhutan holds about 11,286 Bitcoin, making it the fifth-largest national holder globally.
  • The city will be developed in phases over 20 years with executive autonomy and legal independence.

Bhutan is preparing to deploy part of its national Bitcoin reserves to finance the development of the Gelephu Mindfulness City, a flagship urban project designed to reshape the country’s economic future, as per a Cointelegraph report.

The Himalayan kingdom has confirmed that it will tap up to 10,000 Bitcoin from its holdings to support the special administrative region, which was launched in 2024.

The move places Bhutan among a small group of governments actively integrating digital assets into long-term development planning, while also highlighting how Bitcoin mining and treasury management have become embedded in the country’s broader economic strategy.

Gelephu Mindfulness City vision

Gelephu Mindfulness City is located in southern Bhutan near the Indian border and has been positioned as a new economic hub aimed at reversing youth migration.

The project seeks to create high-value domestic jobs and expand opportunities beyond the country’s traditional sectors.

According to official plans, the city is designed to attract companies across finance, tourism, green energy, technology, healthcare, and agriculture.

The special administrative region covers around 1,544 square miles, equivalent to roughly 10% of Bhutan’s total land area.

Its regulatory structure allows greater flexibility, particularly for crypto and fintech firms, while also supporting the expansion of Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining activities.

Officials have described the city as a testing ground for new economic models that balance innovation with sustainability.

Bitcoin funding strategy

According to Cointelegraph, the government said on Wednesday that a range of approaches is being considered to manage the Bitcoin allocation, valued at about $875 million.

These include risk-managed yield strategies, treasury-style management, and long-term holding plans intended to protect and preserve the value of the assets.

Authorities have emphasised that development funding will proceed in a stable and sustainable manner, with governance frameworks focused on capital preservation, oversight, and transparency.

Bhutan ranks as the fifth-largest national holder of Bitcoin, with most of its reserves accumulated through mining operations.

Data from Bitbo estimates that the country holds about 11,286 Bitcoin, with a market value exceeding $986 million.

The Gelephu plan represents the most concrete use yet of this digital asset stockpile for public development.

National Bitcoin policy

The decision to use Bitcoin for Gelephu Mindfulness City forms part of Bhutan’s broader Bitcoin Development Pledge, a national policy aimed at supporting long-term economic growth through mining and asset management.

King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck has stated that the objective is to ensure that the entire population of more than 796,682 people benefits from the project.

As part of this approach, Bhutan is developing a new land policy intended to protect landowners, prevent widening inequality, and ensure shared national prosperity.

The city has been framed as a collective national enterprise, with landowners treated as stakeholders.

Because most land is state-owned, citizens from all Dzongkhags are expected to share in the project’s success.

Governance and rollout

A masterplan and legal framework for Gelephu Mindfulness City have already been unveiled, alongside the appointment of a governor and a board of directors.

Construction work has begun to clear and prepare the site.

The region has also introduced crypto-based payments for merchants and tourism services and launched TER, a sovereign-backed digital token linked to physical gold.

The city has been envisioned as an economic corridor connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia, with executive autonomy and legal independence.

Development is planned in phases over the next 20 years, reflecting Bhutan’s long-term strategy to integrate digital assets, infrastructure, and governance reform.

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Crypto oversight in US tightens as CFTC and FDIC leadership near confirmation

  • Mike Selig is positioned to replace Acting Chair Caroline Pham at the CFTC if confirmed.
  • The CFTC has already expanded crypto oversight through collateral approvals and spot trading permissions.
  • Travis Hill’s confirmation would formalise his interim role at the FDIC and continue crypto-friendly banking policies.

Crypto regulation in the United States is entering a more defined phase as Senate procedures bring key financial watchdog appointments closer to completion.

Two agencies with direct influence over digital assets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., are on the verge of formal leadership changes, as per a CoinDesk report.

President Donald Trump’s nominees to chair both regulators have advanced through the Senate confirmation process, signalling a potential shift in how crypto markets and crypto-linked banking are supervised.

While the final votes have not yet taken place, recent developments suggest that decisions are approaching, narrowing uncertainty around regulatory direction.

Senate clears path for final votes

The Senate moved the process forward on Thursday by approving a resolution that clears the way for final confirmation votes.

The measure passed by a 52–47 margin and applies to a large group of nominees being considered together, reports CoinDesk.

Mike Selig, nominated to lead the CFTC, and Travis Hill, nominated to become chairman of the FDIC, are among the names included.

A spokeswoman for Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said on X that the final vote is likely early next week, though the chamber remains days away from formally confirming the candidates.

Republicans in the Senate have adopted a strategy of voting on dozens of nominations in batches rather than individually. In this round, lawmakers are deciding on 97 confirmation questions at the same time.

Selig and Hill represent only two of those positions, but both roles carry outsized importance for the crypto sector.

The approach has helped accelerate confirmations but has also compressed scrutiny of individual nominees.

CFTC positions itself as crypto regulator

Selig currently serves as a senior official at the Securities and Exchange Commission, where he has been working on crypto-related issues.

If confirmed, he would replace Acting Chair Caroline Pham, who has guided the CFTC through a series of initiatives seen as supportive of digital asset markets.

Under Pham’s leadership, the CFTC has positioned itself as an active player in crypto supervision, even as Congress continues to debate broader market structure legislation.

The agency is widely expected to take a leading role in crypto oversight if lawmakers eventually pass a bill that formally assigns authority.

Even without new legislation, the CFTC has already expanded its reach.

It has created a CEO council to advise on policy matters, approved the use of Bitcoin BTC $92,157.53, Ether ETH $3,237.28, and USDC, along with other payment stablecoins as collateral, and allowed registered firms to offer spot crypto trading services.

These steps have embedded crypto more deeply into regulated financial activity.

FDIC banking stance comes into focus

At the FDIC, Hill has already been serving as interim chief, meaning his confirmation would formalise an existing role rather than introduce new leadership, notes CoinDesk.

During his interim tenure, Hill has pursued policies that indicate a more accommodating stance toward crypto banking.

This includes engagement with banks that provide services to digital asset firms, an area that has previously faced uncertainty due to regulatory caution.

Oversight framework begins to align

Together, the pending confirmations point toward a more coordinated regulatory environment for crypto in the US.

With leadership at both the CFTC and FDIC close to being finalised, oversight of crypto markets and crypto-related banking may soon operate under clearer and more consistent supervision.

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Crypto overview: Markets calm as $4.3B in BTC and ETH options expire

  • Over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire today, December 12.
  • BTC trades above $92,300, with a maximum pain level at around $90,000.
  • Data shows balanced calls and puts, signaling a cautious stance among traders.

Cryptocurrencies remained elevated on Friday as Bitcoin recovered from post-FOMC retracements.

While most tokens trade below their key resistance zones, today’s gains brightened the mood across majors as uncertainty dominates even after the highly anticipated December 10 rate cut.

Amidst the optimism, the primary story remained the over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, on December 12.

With BTC price pinned above $92,300, analysts believe the event could shape the broader market’s trajectory as we close 2025.

Markets steady amid balanced expiry

Deribit revealed a curiously balanced options board, with 18,974 call contracts and 20,852 put contracts, for a combined open interest of 39,826.

Most importantly, a 1.10 put-call ratio confirms balance, with neither side dominating the market.

Clearly, there are no aggressive actions or euphoric calls that generally herald parabolic moves.

Rather, traders have positioned themselves to keep price fluctuations predictable and tight.

And that seems to work, as Bitcoin and Ethereum traded calmly as billions in notional value near a deadline.

Deribit analysts stated:

BTC positioning is tightly centered around the $90K level. Call and put interest sit in near balance, suggesting traders expect a contained expiry after the recent range-bound tape.

$90,000 as the magnet

The crypto community’s attention remained on the max pain region of $90,000 – where options bulls stand to suffer.

Generally, whales or market movers drive prices toward max pain.

Meanwhile, Derbit’s chart shows puts stacked massively between $75,000 and $85,000, with call interest heavy at $95,000 – $100,000.

Thus, Bitcoin is hovering at the most balanced region of around $90,000 – $92,000.

That indicates a calm market with no dramatic moves.

On the other hand, Ethereum is trading at $3,250, above its $3,100 max pain level, with open interest of 237,879 comprising 130,579 put contracts and 107,282 call contracts.

That leads to a 1.22 put-call ratio and approximately $770 notional value.

Indeed, Bitcoin is displaying restraint despite the massive notion value (nearly $3.7 billion is linked to BTC options only).

There’s no such thing as sudden liquidations, panicked shakeouts, or forced price gains.

That level of calmness during high-stakes events like options expiry seems rare, leaving most market players alert.

A market that ignores imminent pressure often waits for the next catalyst.

What’s next?

Options expiry weighs on crypto prices, and digital tokens often set clear directions after the event.

The options will expire at 8 pm UTC, and traders will closely watch post-performance.

Clearing $93,000 – $94,000 can trigger near-term recovery, with fresh calls toward the $100,000 psychological mark.

However, losing $90,000 could mean a continued near-term struggle for Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, traders and investors will watch signs of thin liquidity amid holiday sessions, which often intensifies moves, and year-end institutional repositioning through key indicators like ETFs.

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