Kategorie: Bitcoin News

• Japan’s 40-year bond yield rose to 3.774% on Thursday.
• Five-year CDS spreads reached 21.73 basis points on 20 November.
• GDP contracted in Q3 2025 and inflation reached 3% in October.

Japan’s new stimulus package is setting off sharp reactions across global markets, with the yen sliding to its weakest point against the US dollar since January 2025 and long-term bond yields rising to record levels.

The cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen package on Friday, the largest since the COVID-19 period, and the announcement immediately shifted expectations in currency, bond, and crypto markets.

The scale of the support and the pressure on Japan’s finances are now pushing investors to reconsider how they assess global risk, particularly as liquidity conditions evolve.

Economic reset

The package focuses on easing price pressures, supporting growth, and strengthening defence and diplomatic capacity.

Local government grants and energy subsidies form a key part of the plan, and households are expected to receive around 7,000 yen in benefits over three months.

The government also aims to lift defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2027.

The supplementary budget is expected to pass before the end of the year, although the ruling coalition currently holds only 231 of 465 Lower House seats.

The support comes during a period of weakening growth.

Japan’s GDP fell 0.4% in the third quarter of 2025, equal to a 1.8% annualised contraction.

Inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 43 months and reached 3% in October 2025.

Policymakers expect the new measures to lift real GDP by 24 trillion yen and generate a total economic impact near 265 billion dollars.

Rising market pressure

The fiscal boost has intensified concerns about long-term debt sustainability and market stress.

Five-year credit default swaps on Japanese government bonds reached 21.73 basis points on 20 November, the highest level in six months.

The country’s 40-year bond yield rose to 3.697% immediately after the announcement and climbed further to 3.774% on Thursday.

Every 100-basis-point increase in yields raises annual government financing costs by about 2.8 trillion yen, which has drawn attention to the strain on public finances over time.

Nikkei reports lingering caution about the continued use of fiscal stimulus beyond emergencies, adding another layer to investor concerns.

This debate has become more relevant as the yield curve shifts and Japan’s borrowing costs rise.

These movements are also important for the 20 trillion dollar yen-carry trade. Investors typically borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding markets overseas.

A mix of higher yields and sudden currency moves can force unwinding.

Historical data show a 0.55 correlation between yen-carry trade reversals and S&P 500 declines, which adds another source of volatility.

Yen reaction

The yen dropped sharply after the stimulus announcement, prompting speculation about future currency stability and the potential for intervention.

October exports rose 3.6% year on year, but the increase was not enough to ease concerns about broader economic pressure.

The scale of fiscal support and the persistence of inflation have become central factors in how global markets interpret Japan’s next steps.

Crypto shift

These conditions are feeding directly into crypto markets.

A weaker yen tends to drive Japanese investors toward alternative assets, including Bitcoin, especially during periods of rising liquidity.

Experts have noted that Japan’s decision adds to a global environment that already includes potential US Federal Reserve easing, Treasury cash movements, and continued liquidity support from China.

Together, these factors are creating conditions that could lift crypto demand into 2026.

At the same time, higher long-term yields pose a risk.

If yen-carry trades unwind quickly, institutions may be forced to sell assets, including Bitcoin, to meet liquidity needs.

The post Japan stimulus shakes global markets as yen sinks and crypto demand rises appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Bitcoin trades near $92K amid mixed signals from ETFs and tech markets.
• Hoskinson and Saylor predict a strong BTC rebound despite recent losses.
• ETF outflows and macro risks could, however, push BTC toward $85K support.

While Bitcoin price has recovered from the low of $88,540 hit on November 19, the question is whether it will hit a higher high than the $93,403 registered on November 18.

Some analysts believe BTC is preparing for a deeper slide, while others insist a powerful rebound is already forming beneath the surface.

At press time, BTC price was around $92,237 and already showing signs of exhaustion, which would spell doom since it formed a lower low on November 19, which is a bearish sign.

Bullish calls grow despite the slide

At $92,237, Bitcoin (BTC) is reeling from a bruising stretch that has erased more than $33,000 from its value in under two months.

Notably, today’s uptick follows a pause in ETF outflows and a rebound in tech stocks, driven by Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected earnings.

While the market remains on edge as macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity conditions continue to pressure risk assets, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson remains one of the strongest voices calling for a major rebound.

During CNBC’s Squawk Box show on Tuesday, Hoskinson argued that Bitcoin’s recent losses reflect broader macro distortions, including tariff tensions, recession risks, and uneven regulatory signals.

Hoskinson believes these forces will ease in the coming months.

He expects BTC to recover sharply and potentially hit $250,000 within the next year, projecting that institutional adoption and large-scale tokenisation will redefine market cycles.

Michael Saylor shares a similar level of confidence, viewing the current downturn as typical of Bitcoin’s long-term behaviour.

The MicroStrategy executive says the company is built to withstand extreme drawdowns, calling his position “indestructible” in a recent interview with Fox Business.

₿etter than Ever. Today I was the warm-up act for @natbrunell as we both talked Bitcoin with @cvpayne. You’ll want to hear what she had to say. pic.twitter.com/vDaFceyeza

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 18, 2025

Notably, Saylor has continued to buy BTC even as volatility increases, reinforcing his view that deep corrections are part of the broader path toward higher valuations.

ETF activity has also become a pivotal factor.

The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF posted a record $523 million daily loss on November 18 following a streak of outflows across the spot Bitcoin ETF landscape.

The Bitcoin ETFs outflow seems to have stabilised, with IBIT seeing $60M worth of inflows on November 19.

Analysts warn that sustained inflows will be essential if Bitcoin hopes to avoid a retest of this week’s lows.

Bearish risks still loom

Not all signals point upward. Some traders see a real chance BTC could break below key support levels near $90,000.

If the market fails to hold this support, prediction platforms indicate rising expectations of a drop toward $87,000.

ETF outflows totalling more than $3 billion this month highlight lingering caution, and many retail participants remain hesitant after weeks of drawdowns.

Macro conditions remain complicated.

Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have faded, while recession concerns are resurfacing due to weak jobs data and ongoing trade friction.

These pressures have limited upside momentum even as Nvidia’s tech rally briefly boosted risk appetite.

Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to trade like a high-beta asset tied closely to broader market sentiment, and the next few days may determine whether buyers regain control or whether sellers will test new lows.

The post Bitcoin just hit a critical point: analysts split between $85K crash and $250K surge appeared first on CoinJournal.