Kategorie: Bitcoin News

• Long-term holder (LTH) selloffs cool, easing Bitcoin price selling pressure.
• BTC price holds above $116,817 despite rejection near $122K.
• CPI data may decide the next major BTC price move.

Bitcoin price forecast shows BTC price steadying as long-term holder selloffs cool.

Meanwhile, traders are watching on-chain flows and macro prints for signs of the next directional move.

Long-term holders’ selloff cools

Long-term holders have materially reduced daily sales, and consequently, the market has seen a clear shift toward holding.

According to on-chain data, daily LTH sales slipped below $1 billion in August, after averaging above that threshold in July, and this shift has removed a notable chunk of selling pressure.

Moreover, the reduced flow of coins to exchanges, according to Coinglass, has coincided with renewed accumulation, which in turn supports a calmer BTC price near current range levels.

On-chain evidence points to accumulation

Binary Coin Days Destroyed has dropped toward zero, signalling that older coins are not moving and therefore are being held longer.

Additionally, the Fund Flow Ratio sits at unusually low levels, around 0.057, and this suggests fewer assets are being sent to exchanges.

Consequently, spot market net inflows — including a recent $51 million buy day after a $242 million sell-off on August 10 — reinforce that demand is returning more steadily than before.

Triangle breakout holds, but risks remain

Technically, Bitcoin broke upward from a triangle and remains above the $116,817 breakout threshold, which means momentum is still intact.

However, recent attempts to clear $122,000 ended with a rejection and a “gravestone” doji candlestick, and hence, traders note that the path to a new ATH may not be smooth.

Meanwhile, a CME futures gap near $117K and four-hour 200MA/EMA confluence add short-term technical magnetism that could invite retests before any sustained push higher.

CPI and Fed policy could tilt the scales

Macro catalysts are front and centre because upcoming US CPI figures influence rate-cut expectations and dollar strength.

If core inflation prints higher than expected — for example, near 3.1% — then Fed-cut odds for September would likely decline, and as a result BTC price may face pressure.

Conversely, a softer CPI near 2.9% would boost rate-cut prospects, weaken the dollar, and likely favour renewed upside for crypto and BTC price momentum.

Two plausible paths for Bitcoin traders

On the bullish path, continued LTH holding, steady capital inflows, and a break above recent highs could carry BTC to new discovery above $123,000 and into a $120K–$125K zone.

On the bearish path, a confirmed distribution phase — as some Wyckoff-analysing traders warn — could open a markdown toward the $92K–$95K area, and therefore, traders must respect risk controls.

$BTC | Wyckoff Logic in Play 📊

After a strong Accumulation Phase in March–April confirmed by bullish RSI divergence, BTC entered a powerful Mark-Up phase, reaching new highs.

Currently, price action is showing signs of a Distribution Phase — sideways movement with weakening… pic.twitter.com/PTDoosNnDb

— ZAYK Charts (@ZAYKCharts) August 12, 2025

Thus, momentum and macro prints will decide whether the market grinds higher or re-enters a corrective phase.

Bitcoin price forecast: What traders should watch

Watch whether BTC holds $116,817 and whether exchange inflows remain subdued, because these are immediate signs of supply drying up.

Also, monitor short-term technical confluence at the CME gap near $117K and the reaction to CPI data, since both can trigger quick directional moves.

While sentiment includes bullish voices like the co-founder of PayPal, Peter Thiel, who sees structural undervaluation, traders should remain nimble and factor in both upside targets and downside scenarios.

The current Bitcoin forecast balances improved on-chain accumulation against near-term macro risk, and this equilibrium shapes the prevailing BTC price outlook.

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• Bitcoin’s push toward new records was stopped by profit-taking, causing a price retreat from a high of $122,200 back to $118,500.
• A technical gap in the CME futures market between $117,430 and $119,000 has created a potential target for a short-term price pullback.
• Upcoming US inflation data, particularly the CPI, is considered the week’s most significant catalyst for potential market volatility.

A promising overnight surge that propelled Bitcoin within sight of new records was cut short by a wave of profit-taking, pulling the leading cryptocurrency back and setting a cautious tone for the week.

The market now holds its breath, caught between the allure of all-time highs and the looming shadow of critical economic data that could ignite significant price swings.

After reaching a session high of $122,200, Bitcoin (BTC) saw its momentum fade, retreating 2.8% to land at $118,500.

Despite the pullback, the digital asset remained slightly positive over a 24-hour period.

In the broader crypto market, Ether (ETH) maintained its position above the $4,200 mark, while major altcoins such as Solana’s SOL (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Sui’s native token (SUI) experienced modest dips of 3%-4%.

One technical indicator drawing considerable attention from traders is a “gap” left in the CME futures market, which, unlike the 24/7 crypto market, operates only on weekdays.

This created a void between Friday’s closing price of $117,430 and Monday’s higher open at $119,000.[3] James Van Straten, senior analyst at CoinDesk, noted that historical precedent suggests Bitcoin often retraces to “fill” such gaps.

“History suggests that BTC could pull back to revisit and ‘fill’ that gap,” he said.

Economic crosswinds

The market’s next significant directional move may well be dictated by macroeconomic forces.

The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) data, is circled on every trader’s calendar.

These inflation reports are critical as they heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which in turn impacts investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

This sentiment was echoed by analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex, who believe the continuation of Bitcoin’s momentum is contingent on these US economic reports.

“With market sensitivity to macro events running high, traders should prepare for increased volatility and the possibility of a retracement toward $110,000 in the near term,” the Bitfinex analysts wrote in a Monday market report.

They added, “We believe that the ranging conditions and oscillation between the range highs and lows will continue, since price is constantly moving above and below the cost-basis of fresh buyers allowing for charged sentiments around key macro data releases.”

A rally built on shaky ground?

Beneath the surface of the recent price surge, however, are signs that the rally lacked broad-based participation. In a recent report, the analytics firm Glassnode described the sharp rebound from below $114,000 as a shift from “seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent ATHs.”

Yet, this recovery was not accompanied by a surge in spot market buying.

Glassnode data revealed that spot trading volumes actually fell by 22% to $5.7 billion, a figure near the statistical low, suggesting the upward price movement was driven more by strategic “positioning shifts than deep conviction buying.”

While a metric known as the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta flipped 94% toward buy pressure—a sign that aggressive selling has subsided—it also points to renewed demand from a narrow base of traders rather than a widespread market rush.

On the institutional front, the data presents a mixed, albeit slightly optimistic, picture. Outflows from US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs were halved, dropping to $311 million from $686 million in the preceding week, offering some relief.

Even so, the total trade volume for these ETFs saw a 27.7% decline to $13.7 billion, indicating that overall activity remains subdued and close to its low band.

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• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a low-liquidity “air gap” between $110K and $116K, according to Glassnode.
• The market is “re-finding its footing” after a post-all-time-high correction amidst low volume and weak conviction.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow marking the largest since April.

Bitcoin is treading water around the $115,000 mark on Thursday morning in Asia, up a modest 1% over the last 24 hours, as the inevitable correction following its recent all-time high continues to unfold amidst low trading volumes and a clear lack of market conviction.

Analysts are now closely watching a low-liquidity zone that could either serve as a new foundation for the next leg up or become a trapdoor for a deeper price drop.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has entered what it describes as an “air gap”—a low-liquidity zone between $110,000 and $116,000.

This has occurred after the price broke down from a major supply cluster where short-term holders had previously found significant support. These “air gaps” are areas that typically see very little historical trading activity.

They can either provide an opportunity for new buyers to accumulate positions and build a strong base, or, if demand fails to materialize, they can lead to sharp and swift moves to the downside.

“The market is effectively re-finding its footing,” the Glassnode analysts wrote, framing the range between $110,000 (the prior all-time high) and and 116,000 (the cost basis for recent buyers ) as the new critical battleground.

They noted that while some opportunistic buying has emerged on there cent dip, with approximately 120,000 BTC acquired by new buyers, the price has yet to reclaim key resistance levels convincingly.

A particularly important threshold is the 116,9K level, which marks the entry point for many recent short-term holders.

Cooling sentiment: ETF outflows and reduced leverage

Several indicators point to a cooling of the bullish fervor that recently propelled Bitcoin to its record highs. Short-term holder profitability has dropped from a peak of 100% down to 70%.

While Glassnode frames this as a typical development for a bull market’s mid-phase, they caution that without a fresh wave of capital inflows, this could quickly erode market sentiment.

Indeed, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow recorded earlier this week—the largest single-day outflow since April.

At the same time, funding rates in the derivatives market have cooled significantly, a sign of reduced leverage and a more cautious stance among speculative traders.

Market maker Enflux offered a similar take on the current environment. “Crypto markets remain in a fragile holding pattern. Despite some relief in the altcoin space, majors like BTC and ETH are still struggling to inspire confidence,” the firm wrote in a recent client note.

“The broader trend? Heavy legs with more or less light volume.” Enflux concluded, “Until BTC and ETH reclaim strength with volume, the path of least resistance could remain sideways to down.”

The market’s next significant move now likely hinges on whether a new cohort of buyers is willing to step in and build a solid support base within this low-volume “air gap,” or whether another flush down towards the $110,000 level is needed to fully reset the trend.

For now, traders remain cautious, and the bulls are yet to prove they have regained control.

Broader market snapshot

• BTC: While the market navigates this “air gap,” some observers are pointing to a potential, longer-term Bitcoin supply shock.

• This is being driven by reportedly drying up reserves on Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks and steady corporate accumulation, a combination that could “uncork” a major price move after a potential dip below $110,000.

• ETH: Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% in the last 24 hours, trading just below the $3,600 mark. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks a broad basket of crypto assets, gained 1.69% to 3,815.22.

• Gold: Gold’s recent rally stalled on Wednesday as traders took profits. The market is currently weighing rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut against ongoing U.S. trade tensions and a looming Fed leadership shakeup.

• This has left prices flat after a three-day gain that was driven by signs of economic weakness. Spot gold last traded at $3,372.11, down 0.24% on the day.

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