Peer-to-peer crypto exchange Paxful to suspend operations

  • Paxful will temporarily halt operations.
  • The exchange’s CEO however stated that they are not sure if it will resume operations.
  • This is the second peer-to-peer crypto exchange to shut down.

Paxful CEO Ray Youssef has published a post on the exchange’s website stating that the peer-to-peer (P2P) exchange will be suspending its marketplace. Ray went ahead to state that they are not sure if the exchange will resume operations.

This is the second popular P2P exchange to shut down in 2023 after LocalBitcoins announced shutting down in February.

Key staff departures and regulatory challenges

The CEO cited key staff departures and regulatory challenges in the post saying:

“This will probably come as a big shock to many. While I cannot share the full story now, I can say that we unfortunately have had some key staff departures. Also, regulatory challenges for the industry continue to grow, especially in the peer-to-peer market and most heavily in the U.S. While we work through these issues, we have taken the most secure option and ask you to explore self-custody and trade elsewhere.”

The CEO said that the biggest priority at the moment is safeguarding customer funds and advised customers to withdraw where possible. He has gone ahead to recommend withdrawing to self-custody wallets like Exodus and Muun.

Ray also stated that Paxful will be offering an easy migration to other P2P alternatives for non-US customers. He highlighted three P2P exchanges namely Noones, Bitnob and Yellow Card.

The Paxful Wallet will however remain operational for customers to retrieve their funds.

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Bitcoin price in “transition” even as non-zero balance addresses hit 45.4 million: Bitfinex report

  • The number of Bitcoin wallets with non-zero BTC balance recently hit a new all-time high of 45.388 million.
  • However, daily active addresses and daily confirmed transactions have fallen.
  • Bitcoin price remains bullish but analysts urge caution as on-chain metrics indicate weakness amid renewed correlation with S&P 500.

Bitcoin price currently trends above$28,300, about 0.7% higher in the past 24 hours. The slight uptick follows the crypto market moving beyond rumours around a Red Notice warrant for Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. 

Bitcoin’s resilience also comes after the market reacted upward on Twitter CEO Elon Musk’s move to replace the platform’s bird symbol with a Shiba Inu dog, a symbol for DOGE – the native token of the original meme crypto Dogecoin. 

DOGE price shot up more than 30% to above $0.1 for the first time since early December 2022.

Bitcoin growth outlook: non-zero balance wallets hit 45.4 million

Bitcoin continues to see huge demand as non-zero balance wallets grow to more than 45 million, according to details shared in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report.

But even as the benchmark cryptocurrency records a new high for small BTC holders , with this the fastest rate non-zero balance wallets have grown since early 2021, analysts commenting on Bitcoin price in the report suggest investors might have to be a bit cautious in the short term.

According to on-chain data, non-zero addresses count hit 45.388 million last week as Bitcoin price held above$27k to end the first quarter on a bullish note.

The jump in non-zero balance wallets marks a positive development for the network and for Bitcoin price, with this metric’s growth suggesting that more investors have recently entered the Bitcoin market. In any case, an increase in non-zero balance holders often points to new demand, particularly from small investors.

Yet, this positive outlook aside, other on-chain metrics suggest bulls may need to be cautious in the short term. As noted in the Bitfinex Alpha report, the market is in a transition and indecisive.

“A transition state is characterised by choppy market conditions where the price consolidates in a tight range before trending in either direction. Despite an influx of new market entrants, the sustainability of this phenomena of both rapidly growing non-zero balances and tight range-trading for Bitcoin remains uncertain,” they noted.

BTC price – key on-chain metrics suggest weakness

Bitfinex analysts suggest that other metrics indicate Bitcoin price may continue to consolidate around $28 as both bulls and bears remain indecisive.

Among key on-chain metrics to watch are bitcoin network statistics related to daily active addresses and daily confirmed transactions. 

For instance, the 7-day moving average of daily active addresses recently dropped to levels last seen in late January. The number of confirmed daily transactions have also declined. 

In the past two weeks, the Bitcoin network recorded a 7-day average of 293,058 transactions with the figures on 30 March suggesting a 13% decline from data recorded on 8 March. The Bitfinex analysts commented on the two metrics:

“While this is an inconclusive indicator in terms of bullish or bearish signals, daily activity and transactions decreasing for Bitcoin have always occurred at transitionary phases in the crypto market. They suggest indecision and an unsettling predicament for both bulls and bears.”

Bitcoin’s correlation with S&P 500 – is it rising again?

While bulls attempt to strengthen above $28k again, data shows BTC correlation with stocks is increasing after falling significantly in early March, with BTC price outperforming the major US indices over the month and year-to-date at the end of Q1, 2023.

However, per the Bitfinex report and as CoinJournal analyst Dan Ashmore highlighted last week, Bitcoin is on track to restore its correlation with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite as its price continues to hover between $27k and resistance above $28k. 

Notably, the Pearson metric shows BTC/NASDAQ correlation is up to 0.61 while correlation with the S&P 500 reads 0.12. 

Any value above zero indicates a positive correlation and these figures suggest Bitcoin could trade more in lockstep with equity indices amid macroeconomic headwinds.

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Least amount of Bitcoin on exchanges since the previous bull market top in December 2017


Key Takeaways

  • The balance of Bitcoins on exchanges is in constant decline, now at the lowest point since December 2017 
  • Meanwhile, long-term investors continue to hold, soaking up the supply
  • Coins that have not been touched in 10 years now outnumber those held on exchanges 

I wrote a piece last week on the exodus of stablecoins from exchanges, with the balance currently the lowest since October 2021, with 45% of the total balance of stablecoins on exchanges flowing out in the last four months. 

But the glut in liquidity is not limited to stablecoins. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency is also seeing funds flow out. Only 11.8% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently on exchanges – that is the lowest since December 2017. 

To jot your memory, December 2017 was the previous bull market peak. Bitcoin rose to within a hair of $20,000 before freefalling into a two-year-long bear market which ravaged the entire industry.

Since January 2020, exchanges’ reserves of Bitcoin have been only going one way: down. It hints at the demand/supply imbalance that so many Bitcoin truthers advocate for, with the much-vaunted hard supply cap of 21 million coins for Bitcoin. 

If demand keeps rising, they argue, the price can only go up because supply cannot keep up. 

Central to this thesis is the resilience of long-term holders to keep a firm grasp on their bitcoins. And when assessing whether they have, the answer is a resounding yes. 

The below chart presents long-term holders against the total exchange balance. In November 2022, the number of bitcoins last active 10+ years ago overtook the number of bitcoins on exchanges. 

Of course, some of these long-term holders will be lost coins, either via their owner dying or losing their private keys. 

But the stat is still interesting and speaks to the cohort of (very) early investors in Bitcoin who remain clinging to their coins with all their might. Remember, this includes the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, who is estimated to hold over 1 million coins, or 5% of the total supply. 

Below is the chart displaying the current portion of the Bitcoin supply split out by time held and compared to the exchange balance. 

The result is interesting, but even more so when considering that the last three years brought both the euphoric highs of Bitcoin at nearly $70,000 during the pandemic and then the bone-crushing fall through 2022, which saw it careen down towards $15,000. 

In terms of the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, it’s undoubtedly bullish. Of course, it all depends on whether the demand for additional Bitcoin will hold up. The supply may be getting squeezed, but that is all for nothing if the demand side doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain. 

And on that note, the last year has been a big blow. Not only has capital flowed out of the space at an alarming rate, but a number of very high-profile scandals (LUNA, Celsius, FTX and so on) have rocked the space. The fear is that these episodes have dented the reputation of the cryptocurrency space and will inhibit the demand for Bitcoin on the intuitional side. Have people been put off moving into the space?

It’s hard to say. But in looking at long-term holders, their confidence seems resolute. 

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Crypto prices: Bitcoin to end first quarter on a bullish note

The cryptocurrency market cap was around $1.24 trillion as Bitcoin price reclaimed the $28,500 level, with crypto poised to end the first quarter of 2023 higher. BTC price was up 24% in the past 30 days, and 83% up year-to-date.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital says Bitcoin is poised for a historic quarterly close, which could inform upward impetus over the next several months.

Meanwhile, bullish momentum over the past three months has also seen Ethereum price jump nearly 64% YTD. ETH with a daily close at current prices will see it end March 15% higher. The outlook for most top altcoins is the same, with XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), Polygon (MATIC) and Cardano (ADA) set to end Q1, 2023 higher.

Bitcoin and tech stocks higher YTD

While the US stock market opened higher on Friday, with equities buoyed by the latest economic data, the overall gains across tech stocks pale when compared to Bitcoin. For instance, the S&P 500 was 6.75% up YTD at 11:30 am ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.4% down over the period and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 16.7% up.

However, Bitcoin and some tech stocks have outperformed most other assets this quarter. As noted above, BTC/USD is 83% up YTD and will likely close the quarter with more than 80% in gains. Tesla (TSLA) was 86% up at the time of writing, while Meta Platforms (META) was +63% YTD.

The Apple (AAPL) stock was +30% YTD on Friday, while Amazon (AMZN) had gained more than 20% this quarter.

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Bitcoin volatility rising as $4.2 billion options set to expire Friday


Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin volatility is the highest point since July 2022
  • Liquidity is extremely thin which is pushing volatility higher and accentuating price moves
  • $4.2 billion of options expire Friday, with bull set to profit following the recent surge up to $28,000

Yesterday, I wrote a piece looking at how the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, notably tech stocks, has come back up. The relationship had loosened amid the banking turmoil that struck financial markets, triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

As well as rising correlation, the market is also swinging wildly – the volatility is as high as it has been since July 2022, around the time Celsius sent evaporated into thin air and sent the market into mayhem.

Why is volatility rising?

The volatility spike is not surprising in light of the glut of liquidity currently in the markets. We crafted up a piece on this earlier this week, assessing how 45% of stablecoins had flowed out of exchanges in the last four months, with the balance now at the lowest point since October 2021. 

It gives context to the recent Bitcoin price rise. With less liquidity in the markets, moves are naturally more violent, and Bitcoin has surged up to $28,000, now up 68% on the year. 

While the move to the upside has been exacerbated by this thin liquidity, the opposite also holds true: the downside risk is elevated when markets are so thin. 

It paints a picture of high risk for an asset that already oscillates wildly at the best of times. 

Derivatives add to volatility

Another factor? Derivatives open interest is absolutely soaring, with the below chart from Coinglass showing that options open interest is at its highest point since November 2021. 

As I write this on March 31st, a mammoth $4.2 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire. The below chart also shows the strike prices of the options – with a call/put ratio of 2.09 and Bitcoin currently trading close to $28,000, it will be a profitable day for many traders. 

Digging into the numbers, there are 97,300 call options expiring at a strike price of $28,000 or less, compared to 24,500 put options. The dollar split is over $2 billion in favour of calls. 

Looking at strike prices of the next level up, it is pretty much all call options. Between $28,000 and $32,000 there are 48,000 call options against 400 put options with a $1.4 billion split in favour of calls. 

After a year of bears dominating, there will finally be some bulls primed to profit. 

Indeed, looking at the Bitcoin spot holdings, it is showing more positive news all across the market. In December, the majority of Bitcoins were in loss-making positions, when comparing the market price to the price at which they last moved. 

Today, however, 74% of the supply is in profit when using the same metric. 

 

With interest rate policy expectations softening, Bitcoin has finally been allowed room to run. However, with thin liquidity and high volatility comes risk, although when it comes to Bitcoin, risk is hardly a foreign concept.

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